Davenport on pitcher control of balls in play
As a sort of follow-up to the Franklin arguments we’ve had here lately (summary: “Pitchers have an extremely limited ability to affect whether a ball is put into play and becomes an out or a hit”), I wanted to bring this up. One of the theories on why major league pitchers differ so little in hit prevention is that they’re selected for this ability as they advance — pitchers who aren’t good at this don’t advance.
Conveniently, Clay Davenport looked at this throughout the minors today, while the argument’s still fresh.
The pitchers who made the major leagues are, not surprisingly, better than their counterparts who did not, by every measure of pitching you may desire–including giving up fewer hits per ball in play.
Pitchers who aren’t any good at getting outs when a batter makes contact (their fastball is straight, or they’re no good at changing speeds — whatever) don’t advance, not only because they get shelled continually, but because as a group, their strikeout, home run, and walk rates aren’t as good.
This doesn’t answer a new question (why is the variation in a pitcher’s ability to prevent hits on balls in play so small at the major league level, while strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate have a wide variation) but it’s an interesting addition to the puzzle.
Code Name: Doyle
Hi all,
You may know that I’m a big fan of a certain prospect. However, if you know that you must also be aware that that prospect has had a horrific and career-threatening injury problem. Yes, him. So! There’s a superstition that if a newborn is particularly fragile, the parents hold off naming them until they’re sure the child is through the worst — to not draw the attention of evil forces that might find and harm the kid while it is vulnerable.
In that tradition, I will say nothing about the player shagging balls before games in the outfield for Tacoma. I will be calling this player Doyle. Or Code Name: Doyle, or Conan Doyle for extra confusion. If there are evil spirits, I’m sure Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, noted for his gullibility nearly as much as his writing, would be happy to talk to them. This has the added benefit that SACD is dead, and so no harm can come from him if the injury spirits swing by to kneecap hip.
You may think this is ridiculous and silly, and I would agree with you. I’m still doing it.
Small Sample Size Theater
Doyle, in seven at-bats: .429/.636/.571
Shhhhhhhhhhh.
Steinbrenner blows
Oooooh, how I revel in their troubles (CNNSI, many other places).
It is unbelievable to me that the highest-paid team in baseball would start the season in such a deep funk. They are not playing like true Yankees. They have the talent to win and they are not winning. I expect Joe Torre, his complete coaching staff and the team to turn this around.
I love that Steinbrenner thinks that in situations like this he should issue statements.
As Mariner fans, we can only hope that Steinbrenner goes insane and decides to blow up his team, eating salary as he punts players to other teams. That slacker Posada? I’ll take him. That too-educated Mussina guy? Sure would look good in this unstable rotation (though I’m concerned… ah, that’s is another thing).
Rainiers double-header
Continuing the Curto promotion: in case you didn’t get your dose of baseball, the Rainiers are in the middle of a double-header. Listen here or on KHHO 850.
And, please don’t comment further on this and tempt the fates, but– my favorite prospect’s been playing lately, and doing well. He’s DHing for the second game.
Continuing no-jinx watch: 0-2 with a walk in game 1, 2-2 with a walk in game 2
Oklahoma!
With the results of his first two starts, it’s time to celebrate Ryan Franklin — and his homeland.
The fertile grounds of Oklahoma have grown many legendary baseball players: Mickey Mantle, Johnny Bench, Willie Stargell, Dizzy Dean, the Waner brothers. None of them, however, have turned in nearly 17 strong innings this season. What have you done for me lately, Mick? Big Poison? Also, none of these greats are from Spiro! Home of the Spiro Mounds!
Note to Ryan: do not gain weight, or people will not hesitate to nickname you “the Spiro Mound.” Read more
Game 12, Mariners at White Sox
Meche (maybe) v Garcia. 12:05, FSN and KOMO
The Mariners are 5-6, the White Sox 8-3. We get to see former Mariner Freddy Garcia hopefully face two of the three players the Mariners picked up for him.
There’s still some question on whether this will be a Meche start or not. According to different stories, they’ve upped his anti-inflammatory dose and will watch his bullpen session before the game closely. Upping the dosage without figuring out the problem is concerning: it’s like taking more aspirin for crippling headaches and blackouts. I think Meche needs to apply for medical asylum in another country without an extradition treaty but with baseball. Argentina or Venezuala? I forget. Do they play organized baseball in the Caymans?
If we don’t see Meche, I expect we’d see an emergency start from Ron Villone, who has been held out of games since the 13th, when he pitched to one batter in Mike Hargrove’s all-lefties-are-specialists program.
Yesterday’s quickness
Saturday’s game was 1:39, but here’s some more helpful facts from the Mariners that unintentionally may tick you off:
Actual game time was barely over an hour. From the game notes, “there were 17 inning breaks of 2:05 in yesterday’s game, so clubs were in commercial for 35 minutes and 25 seconds.”
That doesn’t include in-game commercials, of course (this reminder brought to you by the U.S.S.M. Mariner, recently called “not harsh enough” — try us today! the 2-2 pitch…).
I’ve never been rabid about reducing game time. I enjoy watching a game, and my major gripes about it are
– pitching changes are stupid and take forever
– batters get to step out and take guided tours of nearby historical sites between pitches
– post-season commercial breaks are crazy-long
That game, though — man, that was something else.
As a comparison, the rest of the league took 2:11 – 3:46 (Yanks-Orioles at 3:46). The A’s – Angels game ran 10 innings and took 2:24. Average game length was about 2:50, maybe a little longer than that.
Rett Johnson’s release
I missed this, but Jim Thomsen pointed out that the San Antonio Express has an article on Dave Brundage releasing Rett Johnson.
The article has some standard hashing about what Rett’s performances were like which don’t offer anything new to those who’ve followed it. The only really new quote is–
“It just got to be something mental with Rett,” [Brundage] said. “It wasn’t physical, nothing medical. He just got to that top level and couldn’t overcome the big-league aspect of it.”
This comes up frequently, and I wish I had more to offer you.
Game 11, Mariners at White Sox
Franklin v. Buehrle
11:05, FSN for TV
Sexson probably won’t start today, which means we might get additional Spiezio (“Player most frequently misspelled in USSM comments”) dosages.
Things in the Seattle press notes:
– random numbers on Mariner-White Sox past matchups
– 3 itmes (including two tables) on Hargrove reaching 1,000 wins
– six players have appeared in every game
– nine hitters are hitting over .300 with “Runners in Scoring Position” (table, Bloomquist leads with 1-1)
– “Consistency” item on Mariner hitters who’ve had having hits in x of y games
– notes on the M’s in day/night games, the sweep, the road trip
– stats on good pitching
– the eighth inning is where M’s do their damage so far
– last year, the team sucked on the road
– the first three innings is where the M’s have outscored opponents
– in the seventh inning on, the Mariners have hit well
– the Mariners hitting better with batters on (Item title: “Clutch up”)
– Ichiro has multi-hit games
– random facts from SABR’s Baseball Encyclopedia
I predict many of these same things will be mentioned in tonight’s broadcast.
Rainiers play Fresno in Tacoma (weather permitting), 6:05, radio, also on the internets for all you crazy kids with your computers.
U.S.S.M Outing on Tuesday
With the home opener rained out (booooooooooo) it looks like we’re going to be all heading down to see King Felix on Tuesday, rather than Monday as we’d tentatively thought.
It’s still a 6:05 game, we’re still planning on meeting up at Engine House 9 at 4-ish for food and beverages before heading over. Join us! Then head over to the game. It’ll be a fun time for the whole… um, not the family. The whole USSM family?
This date may get pushed back further depending on weather. Stay tuned.