First Half Numbers

July 11, 2005 · Filed Under Mariners · 46 Comments 

Just a few random numbers from the first half that you may find of interest.

  • Ichiro, who had a “disappointing” first half by most peoples standards, is 6th in the American League among outfielders in VORP. The five ahead of him are Hideki Matsui, Vladimir Guerrero, Gary Sheffield, Johnny Damon, and Manny Ramirez. Remember, VORP does not include defense. Even while slumping, Ichiro’s an elite player and a legitimate all-star.
  • The Mariners, White Sox, and A’s are essentially tied for the major league lead in defensive efficiency, turning 71.6 percent of all balls in play into outs. The M’s ranked 6th (70.1 %) last year, 1st (72 %) in 2003, 9th (70.5 %) in 2002, 1st (72.7 %) in 2001, and 3rd (69.9 %) in 2000. Since moving into Safeco Field, the M’s have never ranked out of the top ten in turning balls in play into outs. That’s not a coincidence.
  • According to BP’s playoff odds report, after sweeping the Angels this weekend, the M’s now have a 0.26 percent chance of winning the division and a 0.06 percent chance of winning the wild card. In other words, if we played the second half of the season 1,000 times, the Mariners would make the playoffs in about three of those.
  • The Mariners rotation of Pineiro, Moyer, Meche, Sele, and Franklin has been worth about 9 wins over a replacement level pitching staff and about 1 win less than an average pitching staff. Franklin has been the team’s top starter, being worth 2.3 wins over a replacement level starting pitcher. That ranks him 55th in major league baseball and 26th in the American League.
  • Speaking of Franklin, there’s good reason to expect him to perform significantly worse as the season goes on. His Fielding Independant ERA of 5.21 is a run higher than his actual 4.35 ERA, and his Expected Fielding Independant ERA, based on his component numbers, is 5.72. Both his FIP and his xFIP are worst on the staff. However, because the gloves have been turning 75 percent of his balls in play into outs, his ERA sparkles at 4.35. The next time someone tells you how “unlucky” Ryan Franklin is, remind them that his BABIP is 9th in the majors among starting pitchers. His teammates might not score him any runs, but they save him a buttload with their defense.
  • More pitching fun. There are 56 pitchers in the American League who qualify for the ERA title. Of those 56, the Mariners starting pitchers rank 32nd (Meche), 40th (Pineiro), 42nd (Moyer), 51st (Franklin), and 52nd (Sele) in K/9. The starters have struck out 255 hitters in 514 innings pitched for a 4.46 K/9 as a pitching rotation. If the M’s staff was one American League pitcher, it would rank 45th out of 56 in strikeout rate. Talk about pitching to contact.
  • Adrian Beltre is 5th among Mariners hitters in VORP. Seriously. Only Ibanez, Sexson, Ichiro, and Morse have provided more offensive contribution to the team than the M’s third baseman. He’s still 25th among major league 3rd baseman, however. Among those major league third baseman with a higher VORP than Beltre: Jeff Cirillo. Ouch.
  • Eddie Guardado has been about 2 wins better than a replacement level reliever, ranking him 4th best in the American League. Considering he’s doing it with a torn rotator cuff, he’s having one of the most remarkable seasons of any player in baseball this year. He’s basically dominating with nothing but chutzpah.
  • Felix the Reliever

    July 10, 2005 · Filed Under Mariners · 37 Comments 

    By the way, Felix Hernandez is making his return to the mound tonight. As a reliever. To help limit his workload, he’s going to continue to work out of the bullpen while in Triple-A.

    Feed Full

    July 10, 2005 · Filed Under Mariners · Comments Off on Feed Full 

    Just wanted to let you all know that we are officially out of room for the U.S.S. Mariner trip to the park for next Saturday. If any spots open up this week, we’ll let you know. If you are certain you will be available and would like to be on a 5 man “reserve” list, send us an email (put “reserve” in the subject line) with a phone number you can be reached at Saturday, and we will call you if there are any last minute cancellations.

    We’ll see everyone who signed up there. And I’m fairly certain you won’t be disappointed.

    Game 87, Mariners at Angels

    July 10, 2005 · Filed Under Mariners · 144 Comments 

    Sorry this is late, but like Diamond Dave once said, I don’t feel tardy.

    Game 86, Mariners at Angels

    July 9, 2005 · Filed Under Mariners · 169 Comments 

    Pre-game quotes about the potential for trading Eddie Guardado:

    “I’m not sure we would want to (trade him),” Seattle general manager Bill Bavasi said. “We certainly would not take a cavalier approach to moving him. This guy’s really important. I know important guys have been traded from clubs, but he’s very important to us.

    “This team right now is lacking success, it’s lacking character – it’s lacking a lot of things that Eddie Guardado’s got.”

    Eddie’s got success? He’s been holding out on us! I’ll hold him, you search his locker. He can keep the character.

    Let’s see if Ryan Franklin’s character involves keeping the ball down, getting ahead in the count and scoring runs early. John Lackey goes for the Angels.

    Willie and Washburn

    July 9, 2005 · Filed Under Mariners · 33 Comments 

    As maddening as it may have been to see Bloomquist in the lineup again last night, you pretty much have to start him any time the team faces Jarrod Washburn. I used to write about this when I did his profile for the Grand Salami, but however you slice it, Bloomquist owns Washburn — he’s 10-for-20 against him in his career with a .545 OBP and one of his two career triples.

    Sample size, schmample size. Every hitter has one pitcher — his bizzaro-world match — he simply destroys. Whether or not the two ever actually face each other is a different story, however, and I hear Charles Gipson is still looking for his.

    Game 85, Mariners at Angels

    July 8, 2005 · Filed Under Mariners · 192 Comments 

    Crafty left-hander Jamie Moyer versus sneering left hander Jarrod Washburn.

    “I backed into your Prius? Heh.”

    7:05 our time, FSN and KOMO.

    This game GUARANTEED to feature RED HOT Willie Bloomquist. You can’t keep this guy out of the lineup!

    I also want to say that I don’t hate Bloomquist. I really don’t. Back when he was hanging around Tacoma, he came off badly, as a talentless coach’s pet and a preening lady-killer, but who cares — at that age, a minor league baseball player, there are far worse things.

    And since then, I haven’t read an unkind word about him personally. While I don’t know him, by all accounts he’s matured into a pretty good guy I probably wouldn’t mind having a beer with (um, as long as he didn’t punch me out).

    So there are conflicting feelings at work:
    – He’s demonstrated in his major and minor league careers that he’s not a good player, and justifies a roster space for versatility, pinch-running, and whatever else, but not as a project or a future anything
    – I hate that the Mariners have loved him so much for so long, as a symptom of their organizational blind spot for scrappy athletes (like Dobbs) who can’t hit but look like players
    – I’m tired of the amazing near-worship I see from some fans who like to dog on useful, contributing players like Randy Winn, and I’m tired of being subjected to constant supplication to Bloomquist by the broadcast crew (“Bloomquist is the best centerfielder on the Mariners… — Dave Niehaus”)
    – I’m so happy he’s been smoking the ball while I’m watching the game, because this team needs hiiiiits like mad, and yet…
    – I worry this is going to be like the original September call-up, where a short super-hot streak justifies retaining him and fawning over him for the next five years.

    Anyway, with a lefty on the mound, it’s almost certain he’ll start again. Good luck.

    Kevin Calabro called up

    July 8, 2005 · Filed Under Mariners · 58 Comments 

    Sigh. He’ll be joining the team’s broadcast crew while Niehaus takes his mid-year vacation. The Sonics’ site on NBA.com has four dates (July 14,15,16,17) but no details about when or where.

    Calabro’s a good basketball announcer (though I admit I don’t know the different crews as well as I do baseball), but this is still disappointing. He’s a locally-known name, without deep baseball broadcast experience. Why not find someone who can do play-by-play, especially someone local who knows the players and the organization like Mike Curto?

    It strikes me as part of the long-standing (and possibly slowly changing) organizational philosophy to favor the familiar and the safe over the interesting and risky.

    One More Feed Post

    July 8, 2005 · Filed Under Mariners · 12 Comments 

    We have spots still remaining for the Baseball Prospectus/U.S.S. Mariner Ballpark Feed at Safeco Field next Saturday, July 16th. Derek, Jeff, and I will be there, along with BP’s Jonah Keri, and some unannounced special guests.

    We’ve got a great event lined up as is, and we’re working on a few things in the background that would make this one of the most unique experiences a Mariner fan could have. You’re going to have a great time. The responses from those that have attended our two previous feeds have been tremendous, and this one includes a ballgame. It will be the best $35 you spend all summer.

    You can signup by emailing the feed mailing list and letting us know the names of each person you are RSVP’ing for.

    Come. Bring friends. Have a blast.

    Week #15 in Review

    July 8, 2005 · Filed Under Mariners · 31 Comments 

    Boone DFA’ed! Doyle recalled! Mariners score double-digits, not just for the week, but in a single game! Bloomquist hits like it’s September 2002!

    Wow, what a week.

    Vital Signs
    Wins: 36. Losses: 48. Games out of first place: 15.5.

    The Mariners drop another two games in the standings this week. And now a 5-game chasm separates the M’s from the third-place Athletics. Last place rarely seemed so lonely. According to third-order wins, the Mariners are unlucky by more than 3 games, but that still doesn’t mean that their last-place position is undeserved. Only Tampa Bay and Kansas City have fewer 3rd order wins. And of course, those two teams’ payrolls together don’t match the Mariners.

    Runs Scored: 354 (last in the American League). Batting average: .257 (last). On-base percentage: .316 (last). Slugging percentage: .388 (last). Home runs: 62 (last). Bases on balls: 235 (8th!). EqA: .261 (18th in baseball).

    The Mariners get away with an offense last in every significant batting category in the league without being last in EqA on a couple of counts. First of all, they play in Safeco Field and EqA is weighted accordingly. Secondly, their most potent offensive weapon right now is their designated hitter, and 10 of the 12 teams behind them have no such luxury.

    Runs allowed: 377 (8th). Staff ERA: 4.29 (8th). DIPS ERA: 4.82 (13th). Strikeouts: 427 (last). Bases on balls: (12th). Home runs allowed: 90 (11th). Starters ERA: 4.89 (12th). Relievers ERA: 3.03 (3rd). Defensive efficiency: 71.6% (3rd).

    The M’s quietly have one of the best relief corps in the game right now. At least they have some marketable commodity for the coming trade frenzy.

    Make it 5 straight losing series for the Mariners now. They went 3-4 on the week dropping 2 out of 3 to both Texas and Kansas City (shame on them) before taking Game #1 in the LA Angels series. Thanks to a couple of blow-out wins and close losses, they outscored their opponents 32-28. They were out-homered 8-5 (which happens to every team playing Texas), but drew more walks 24-19 (thank you, Bartolo Colon). The M’s lineup was feast or famine, where 3 starters logged an OPS over 1.000, and 4 starters below .700.

    Heroes
    Feast: Adrian Beltre (10-for-29, .345/.367/.759, a double, a triple and 3 home runs), Ichiro! (12-for-26, .462/.531/.577, 5 walks), and Willie Bloomquist (9-for-21, .429/.455/.667, 5 doubles, 2 stolen bases and so much hustle broadcaster Dave Valle is rumored to have spontaneously combusted like a Spinal Tap drummer). At least someone got the memo that Kansas City’s pitching isn’t very good.

    To celebrate Independence Day, Ryan Franklin threw a complete game shutout. He held the Royals to 6 hits and a walk while striking out 4. And he did it on only 103 pitches. Hey, if you got a defense that can catch the ball, you might as well use it. At 13.9, Franklin now has the highest VORP on the pitching staff. Give the boy a cookie.

    Not-so-much Heroes
    Famine: Raul Ibanez (6-for-26, .231/.333/.346), Jeremy Reed (4-for-19, .211/.286/.316), Jose Lopez (3-for-18, .167/.167/.278) and Pat Borders (2-for-15, .133/.133/.133). Dincha get the memo?

    Reed is now hitting .259/.329/.357. His 5.2 VORP is 12th among AL centerfielders with at least 100 at bats. On the bright side, he is the 2nd best centerfielder in the AL West according to VORP.

    The shutout by Franklin must have really pissed off the Royals. The very next day, the team that makes an out in 68% of their plate appearance, shellacked Gil Meche for 5 runs on 7 hits and a pair of walks. Meche allowed more runners on base than he recorded outs, as he failed to sit a Royal down in the fourth inning. It was his worst start of the season, and against one of worst offenses to boot.

    Coming to a stadium near you
    Over the weekend the Mariners will play 3 more in Angel Stadium. Few teams are hot like the Angels are right now. Prior to last night’s bizarre turn of events, the Angels had gone 15-4 dating back to June 17. They’re cruising in first place of the AL West. Their offense has scored 409 runs, 5th in the league, while they’ve allowed 332, second in the league to the White Sox.

    Next, all of baseball takes a 3-day vacation for an All-Star Game. Rumor has it that it counts. For something. Whatever. Feel free to watch if that’s your thing.

    The M’s will then kickoff the second half hosting a four-game set with spiraling Baltimore. After starting the season as one of the more fun stories to watch in baseball, the O’s have dropped 11 of their last 14, including 3 of 4 to their archrival Yankees. Currently, the Orioles have scored 416 runs, 4th in the league, and allowed 400, 9th in the league.

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