Game 148, Mariners at Royals
Pineiro vs Redman, 4:10 pm.
It’s a Saturday, it’s a terrible pitching matchup, and since Redman’s a lefty, there will be no Doyle today.
Go do something else.
Game 147, Mariners at Royals
RHP Francisco Cruceta vs. RHP Luke Hudson, 5:10pm.
I was all set to say that Cruceta would be making his first major league start, but it turns out he did that way back in September of 2004 with the Indians. In any event, Cruceta comes off a minor league season in which he fanned 185 hitters in 160 innings at Tacoma. He also walked better than four hitters per nine innings, so it’s not as if this is a finished product. Does he wind up in relief? Perhaps. But as Dave has said, why not make sure he can’t start?
The best news of the day is that Betancourt’s out of the #3 slot in the lineup. Any guesses as to who has replaced him? Johjima, certainly not a name I was expecting but a vast improvement over Betancourt.
CF Ichiro!
3B Beltre
C Johjima
LF Ibanez
1B Sexson
DH Broussard
SS Betancourt
RF Doyle
2B Lopez
Of course, Hargrove then goes nuts by hitting Betancourt ahead of both Doyle and Lopez. I was all for moving Lopez down in the order, because ultimately I think his lack of patience makes him a #6 hitter as opposed to a #2 or #3 hitter. But Doyle 8th? That’s crazy talk. I’d personally go Ichiro-Doyle-Beltre at the top, but that’s just me. Of course, it’s pointless to get upset about lineup order for two reasons: it doesn’t matter all that much, and we won’t have to deal with Hargrove next season anyway.
The Royals counter with DeJesus, German, Grudz, Brown, Shealy, Costa, Buck, Gathright, Blanco. This offense was bad even with Mark Teahen’s breakout year — without him, it’s even worse. But hey, at least Buddy Bell has the sense to hit his all-field, no-hit SS 9th.
Undervalued Pitcher #1
A few days ago, I talked about why I don’t like long term contracts for pitchers, and why I expect the big name free agents this winter to get contracts that are not in their signing club’s best interests. There’s no way I’d get involved in the Barry Zito negotiations, and from the sounds of what he’s going to receive, I’d bow out on Jason Schmidt very quickly as well.
Of course, since I’m eliminating all the popular names from the discussion of who to acquire, the natural question that follows is “well then, who do you want?”, since we have to actually field a starting rotation next year. I’m of the opinion that pitchers, due to the significant effects that random variation can have on their performance, can often be valued incorrectly. Since the price of pitching has gotten so out of control on the free market, the best way to build a team is to spend on position players, develop your own elite starters, and find bargains to fill out your rotation.
I’ve identified three pitchers who will almost certainly be made available this winter that will require only a moderate cost in terms of talent to acquire and 2007 salary, and will come with no long term commitment, but could be expected to give the team quality innings at the back of the rotation. All three are undervalued, in my opinion, and would be terrific candidates for the Mariners to acquire, allowing them to spend most of their assets elsewhere.
Undervalued Pitcher #1 is probably going to be non-tendered by his current team this offseason because of his poor season. Among qualified American League starters, only Joel Pineiro and Carlos Silva have posted higher ERAs. His ERA is 25 percent worse than league average this season, and it was 15 percent worse than league average last year. He made $3.75 million this year and is arbitration eligible, and it’s unlikely that any team is going to want to take him to arbitration again after posting a 5.88 ERA.
Ladies and Gentleman, Rodrigo Lopez. You might remember him from the May 25th game, where he shutout the Mariners for 7 1/3 innings, or the August 1st game, where he shutout the Mariners for 7 2/3 innings, by far his two best starts of the year.
So yes, I really am suggesting that the Mariners acquire a pitcher who posted an ERA near 6.00 and who got beat around by everyone in baseball not wearing Seattle on their chest. This isn’t exactly the kind of acquisition that is going to get fans excited about coming back to Safeco Field, but it is the kind of acquisition that good teams make. Rodrigo Lopez is the classic buy-low candidate.
Over the past three years, he’s thrown 171, 209, and 182 innings. He’s 30 years old and has proven to be a durable innings eater who is remarkably consistent. But he’s not just a Ryan Franklin type rubber arm who takes the hill every 5 days and eliminates your chance to win the game. Rodrigo Lopez actually has some ability. Look at this five year history:
Season K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FB% HR/FB BABIP LOB% FIP ERA 2002 6.22 2.84 1.05 38.2% 10.1% 0.263 75.4% 4.36 3.57 2003 6.31 2.63 1.47 35.0% 13.7% 0.345 67.5% 5.00 5.82 2004 6.38 2.85 1.11 36.2% 11.0% 0.284 78.2% 4.37 3.59 2005 5.07 2.71 1.20 35.8% 10.9% 0.302 67.0% 4.81 4.50 2006 6.38 2.82 1.48 35.1% 13.9% 0.339 66.7% 4.93 5.88
That’s a pretty interesting chart. Several of those numbers have been amazingly consistent, while several others have been all over the board. He’s posted remarkably similar walk, strikeout, and flyball rates the past five years, showing almost no year to year variation in those core skills. His HR/FB and LOB% have been less consistent, however, ranging from very good to very poor, which has completely driven the wild swings in his ERA.
If you judge Lopez on run prevention, he was excellent in 2002 and 2004, mediocre in 2005, and terrible in 2003 and 2006.
If you judge Lopez on his skillset, however, he’s been practically the same pitcher every year for the last five years. You know exactly what you’re going to get from Rodrigo Lopez. There’s no chance he’ll be an ace, because his stuff just isn’t good enough, but when he’s stranding runners, he’s a valuable middle of the rotation starter. He hasn’t stranded enough runners in 2006, but if you’ve been reading the blog at all the past year, you know that isn’t predictive in nature.
One more chart, just for fun:
Pitcher K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FB% HR/FB BABIP LOB% FIP ERA J. Verlander 6.07 2.81 0.92 34.5% 9.5% 0.293 78.6% 4.20 3.42 Barry Zito 6.15 3.95 1.12 38.1% 9.2% 0.278 78.1% 4.97 3.86 Jose Contreras 6.16 2.44 0.86 38.9% 7.8% 0.286 69.8% 4.04 3.97 Rodrigo Lopez 6.38 2.82 1.48 35.1% 13.9% 0.339 66.7% 4.93 5.88 Kevin Millwood 6.48 2.10 0.91 33.2% 9.6% 0.315 67.2% 3.82 4.47 Ervin Santana 6.60 3.08 1.03 44.4% 8.5% 0.278 66.3% 4.41 4.50 Josh Beckett 6.90 3.33 1.61 38.8% 15.1% 0.270 68.7% 5.25 5.09 Vicente Padilla 6.96 2.96 0.94 35.7% 9.5% 0.307 69.5% 4.27 4.44
Based on his peripherals, that’s the class of pitcher that Rodrigo Lopez has pitched like. His 5.88 ERA is an extreme outlier based on his actual performance, just like Jarrod Washburn’s 3.20 ERA was an extreme outlier the other way last year. Lopez isn’t as good as all those pitchers, but the difference is far less drastic than you’d imagine. With a likely regression in his BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB rates, combined with his durability and consistency in his core skills, Rodrigo Lopez looks like a prime candidate for a bounce back 2007 season.
Lopez would make a fine #4 starter for the Mariners next year, and he’ll probably cost no more than $2 million for the season, thanks to his atrocious 2006 ERA.
The power of ERA is still strong, and it’s going to cause Rodrigo Lopez to be significantly undervalued this offseason. The Mariners would do well to take advantage of this particular market inefficiency.
Game 146, Mariners at Royals
Washburn vs Perez, 5:10 pm.
Anyone want to try to explain Odalis Perez’s career path? Two years ago, he was a heavy groundballer who could miss bats and he posted a ridiculously high 79% LOB% which gave him an unsustainably low ERA and made it look like a breakout year. Last year, his walk/strikeout/home run rates were pretty much the same, but his LOB% went from one of the best in the league to one of the worst, and his ERA went up a point and a half. He also spent half the season on the DL.
He comes back this year, gets demoted to the bullpen, sees his strikeout rate go through the floor but simultaneously cuts his walk rate, basically becoming a Ryan Franklin type pitcher, but continues to allow almost everyone who reaches base to score. He makes a bunch of stupid comments, and the Dodgers give away a decent prospect to the Royals in turn for taking his salary off their hands. Since coming to Kansas City, his walk and strikeout rates jump back, but now he’s an extreme flyball pitcher, and he STILL can’t strand runners to save his life.
Basic skillsets are generally pretty stable, even if the results aren’t. But Odalis Perez’s skillset is all over the board, and he’s now posted ridiculously low strand rates the past two years, despite being a pretty decent pitcher with the bases empty.
He’s the kind of pitcher who makes you want to throw your hands in the air and say who knows. I wouldn’t be surprised if he threw a perfect game tonight, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t last two innings.
1. Ichiro, CF
2. Beltre, 3B
3. Betancourt, SS
4. Ibanez, LF
5. Sexson, 1B
6. Perez, DH
7. Johjima, C
8. Lopez, 2B
9. WFB, RF
Shakeup
Dan Rohn and Ron Hassey have left the team, effective immediately.
These aren’t the first firings, and they won’t be the last. Expect a fairly significant purge of the coaching staff throughout the organization.
Game 145, Blue Jays at Mariners
Burnett vs Baek, 1:35 pm.
It’s power vs finesse in several ways. Baek takes his junk-junkier-junkiest repertoire up against an offense that can whack the ball all over the park, while the M’s take their singlefest offense up against A.J. Burnett’s high velocity offerings. I’d bet on power in both cases.
Line-Up:
1. Ichiro, CF
2. Bad Beltre, 3B (some of his swings lately… dear god)
3. Betancourt, SS
4. Ibanez, LF
5. Sexson, 1B
6. Broussard, DH
7. Snelling, RF
8. Rivera, C
9. Bloomquist, 2B
Game 144, Blue Jays at Mariners
Marcum vs Meche, 7:05 pm.
Okay, it might not be a great reason, but at least you might sort of care how Gil Meche finishes out the year, since it could affect what type of draft pick compensation we get when he walks away as a free agent this winter. That’s better than last night, when there just wasn’t a reason to watch.
Line-Up:
1. Ichiro, CF
2. Beltre, 3B
3. Betancourt, SS (6-27 as #3 hitter – .222/.222/.222. Only Grover would think this is working.)
4. Ibanez, LF
5. Sexson, 1B
6. Broussard, DH
7. Johjima, C
8. Lopez, 2B
9. Doyle, RF (Carl Everett went 0-16 about 142 times and never got dropped in the order…)
Line-ups by in large don’t matter, but they do serve as small insights into a manager’s ability to think critically. Or, in this case, have absolutely no idea about what kind of skills the player on his team possess.
You get what you pay for
When the Mariners signed Jarrod Washburn last winter, they thought they were getting a better pitcher than the one they’ve seen in 2006. Their problem, though, was one of misconception. Take a look at ’05 vs ’06 Washburn:
2005: 177 1/3 IP, 184 H, 51 BB, 94 K, 19 HR, 8 HBP
2006: 180 1/3 IP, 184 H, 52 BB, 101 K, 22 HR, 7 HBP
In essentially the same number of innings, he’s given up exactly the same number of hits, one more walk, three more home runs, and struck out 7 more batters while hitting one less. You couldn’t find a more consistent pitcher from last year to this year if you tried.
The rise in ERA, from 3.20 to 4.39, is completely due to amount of baserunners he’s allowed to score. Last year, he had the highest LOB% of any pitcher in the AL at 81.8%. This year, it’s down to a league average 70.2%.
The moral, as always: ERA is useless.
Game 143, Blue Jays at Mariners
Lilly vs Woods, 7:05 pm.
To be honest with you, I have no idea why you should watch this game. Lefty on the mound, so no Doyle tonight. The team can’t hit southpaws. Jake Woods is starting against the Blue Jays. If this game has a redeeming quality, I don’t know what it is.
CF Ichiro!
3B Beltre
SS Betancourt
LF Ibanez
1B Sexson
DH Perez
C Johjima
2B Lopez
RF Morse
versus Toronto’s vastly superior batting order.
Long Term Contracts
Since the Mariners have giant holes in their rotation going into this offseason, there has been a significant amount of talk about the M’s getting two pitchers in free agency to rebuild the rotation around. Ignoring Daisuke Matsuzaka’s situation for a minute, the prominent names mentioned are Jason Schmidt, Barry Zito, and Adam Eaton. Most fans seem to be in favor of breaking the bank and acquiring as many big name pitchers as the team can get, regardless of the years or dollars it takes to sign them.
The purpose of this post is to point out the fact that strategy is a recipe for disaster. For whatever reasons, people have not yet been convinced of the ridiculous risk that is taken when signing a free agent pitcher to a four or five year contract for large amounts of money. The dreams of having an ace dance in the heads of fans and general managers alike, but in most cases, you end up with a crippling contract. The success rate of 4+ year deals for free agent starting pitchers is, to put it bluntly, horrible.
Here’s a look at every current pitcher in MLB who signed a contract of four years or longer that bought out his free agency. Players re-signed one year before they hit the open market count for this purpose.
Bartolo Colon: 4 years, $51 million from 2004-2007.
He was lousy in 2004, good in 2005, lousy and injured in 2006, and it doesn’t look good for 2007. His velocity, and subsequently his strikeout rate, have dropped through the floor, and he’s not the same pitcher he used to be. For $51 million, the Angels got one above average season, one and a half bad years, and are on the hook for $14 million next year to a guy who is unlikely to be very effective.
A.J. Burnett: 5 years, $55 million from 2006-2010.
There’s still time for this story to be written, but after one year, it doesn’t look so hot. They got 100 solid innings out of Burnett this year, but concerns about his arm were well founded, and after several trips to the disabled list, he still doesn’t look like a guy you want to be committing long term to.
Mike Hampton: 8 years, $121 million from 2001-2008.
The contract that keeps on giving. Did you know the Braves paid Hampton $13.5 million this year, owe him $14.5 million next year, and $15 million in 2008? This is one of the worst contracts in professional sports history.
Tim Hudson: 4 years, $47 million from 2006-2009.
Hudson’s pitched better than his ERA suggests, but his peripherals have never been strong beyond his home run rate, and he’s battled injuries the past two years. He’s no longer the 240 inning horse he was in Oakland, and he looks more like a midrotation guy than a frontline starter now. Needless to say, the Braves aren’t looking forward to paying him $32 million for the next three seasons.
Derek Lowe: 4 years, $36 million from 2005-2008.
Finally, a deal that looks good right now. I hated this deal when the Dodgers signed it, but Lowe has pitched far better than I expected. He’s cut his walk rates, maintained his ridiculous groundball dominance, and generally been one of the better starting pitchers in the National League the past two seasons. Despite my initial misgivings, this looks like a bargain in retrospect.
Jason Schmidt: 4 years, $30 million from 2002-2005.
This became a 5 year, $40 million deal when the Giants picked up their option on Schmidt last winter. Despite dealing with injury problems last year, Schmidt’s contract was a steal for the Giants. He gave them three all-star caliber seasons before getting hurt, then has pitched solidly if not spectacularly the past two years. This was a great deal for San Francisco.
Jarrod Washburn: 4 years, $37.5 million from 2006-2009.
We hated this deal when the M’s signed it, and we don’t like it any more now. Washburn’s a back end starter whose only real quality is his durability. They’re paying far too much for a mediocre performer.
Pedro Martinez: 4 years, $53 million from 2005-2008.
This one is tough to evaluate. Pedro was great for the Mets last year, and he’s been solid for them this year when healthy, but long term durability was always the question. He’s only thrown 122 innings this year, and he hasn’t pitched like a frontline starter even when healthy. They got one great year from Pedro, but they’re going to be paying for that one great year for several more. Not a great deal, not a terrible deal.
Chan Ho Park: 5 years, $65 million from 2002-2006.
I don’t think I need to write much here. This contract was a debacle from day one.
Kevin Millwood: 5 years, $60 million from 2006-2010.
Millwood’s pitching almost exactly as he did last year for Cleveland, except his extraordinarily high strand rate has predictably disappeared, and his ERA has risen back into the 4.5 range. Considering the Rangers defense and their home park, that shouldn’t be a big surprise. Millwood’s a better pitcher than most people think, but he’s not a great fit for Texas. They overpaid, and there’s a good chance that they won’t be able to give his contract away by the time its over.
Javier Vazquez: 4 years, $45 million from 2004-2007.
A total failure in New York, then shipped to Arizona, where he spent a mediocre year before demanding another trade and ending up in Chicago. He’s settled in as a career underachiever who is massively overpaid. He’s a decent innings eater, but he’s not worth anything close to his contract.
Jose Contreras: 4 years, $32 million from 2003-2006.
Had half a good year with New York, then was lousy for a year with both NY and Chicago, then was good for Chicago last year, and has been decent for them this year. Not a model of consistency, but there’s been more good than bad with Contreras, and overall, the White Sox have gotten their money’s worth out of him.
Mike Mussina: 6 years, $88.5 million from 2001-2006.
Mussina hasn’t been the same guy he was in Baltimore, but he’s been one of the better, more durable pitchers in the American League, giving the Yankees three legitimately good years and three league average years for their money. He solidified a rotation spot for half a decade, and for that, he’s been worth the money. He’s been worth it.
Carl Pavano: 4 years, $40 millioon from 2005-2008.
He’s thrown 100 innings the past two seasons, angered his teammates and the front office, and is basically out of New York’s plans. Diasaster of a contract.
That’s the list, in its entirity. If we want to break it down by retrospective performance:
Bargain: Schmidt, Lowe
Worth The Money: Mussina, Contreras
Short Term Rewards, Long Term Albatross: Martinez, Colon
Useful but Overpaid: Millwood, Washburn, Vazquez, Hudson, Burnett
Disaster: Park, Hampton, Pavano
That’s 14 pitchers, and the signing team regrets 8 of those. 2 worked out really well for the club, 2 worked out as they had hoped, and 2 gave the team a short term boost, but not one that was worth the total financial payout.
If you gave the signing teams a crystal ball to know what we know now when they did the deal, I’d suggest the only players that still would have been signed would be Jason Schmidt, Derek Lowe, Mike Mussina, Jose Contreras, and Pedro Martinez. The teams would back away from the other nine.
And, keep in mind, these contracts were signed during the period of relative fiscal sanity by the ownership in reaction to the awful Hampton/Neagle deals. Major League clubs went 5 for 14 handing out these kinds of contracts when they were being extraordinarily careful about which pitchers got 4+ year deals.
It’s easy to look at what a pitcher like Barry Zito or Jason Schmidt is right now and say “do whatever it takes to sign him”, thinking you’re getting a pitcher who will anchor your rotation for years to come. We have to remember, though, that guys like Mike Hampton, Tim Hudson, Javier Vazquez, Carl Pavano, Chan Ho Park, and Bartolo Colon were looked at the same way. These guys were Cy Young winners, established playoff heroes, perenniel all-stars, and the best pitchers of their time.
By the years you hit free agency, however, your time is usually running short, and your best days are often behind you. Making a 4+ year commitment to a starting pitcher who has already been worked hard is rarely a good idea.
The Mariners already have one long term albatross contract on their pitching staff. We don’t need another one. There are other ways to build a pitching staff.