The Most Consistent Pitcher of All Time
Lest this thread turns into another “Dave hates the Mariners!” whinefest, let me get this out of the way – I’m glad we won, I’m glad we’re over .500, and I’m looking forward to today’s game. Go M’s.
Now, Jarrod Washburn’s three true outcome stats for each of the last three years:
2005: 2.6 BB/G, 4.9 K/G, 0.98 HR/G
2006: 2.6 BB/G, 4.9 K/G, 1.19 HR/G
2007: 2.6 BB/G, 4.9 K/G, 1.15 HR/G
His walkrate and strikeout rate this season are exactly the same as they were each of the last two years. That’s consistency of a ridiculous nature. Almost every pitcher has some year to year variation in their peripherals, but not Washburn – he’s cemented himself as the 2.6 BB, 4.9 strikeout, 1.1 HR guy. No regression analysis needed here. Of course, his ERA’s have bounced all over the place – 3.20, 4.67, and now 2.88. Why is that? Let me throw some more numbers at you.
2005: 81.8% LOB%, .289 BABIP
2006: 69.6% LOB%, .290 BABIP
2007: 78.9% LOB%, .208 BABIP
As we’ve discussed ad nasuem, Washburn threw up an unsustainable rate of stranding runners in 2005, leading to a superficially low ERA. He wasn’t getting hitters out any more than usual – he was just getting them out with guys on base. Some people called it clutch pitching – we called it an outlier, based on all kinds of historical evidence that there’s not some kind of clutch pitching gene that Washburn has, allowing him to pitch out of jams like he’s Johan Santana. Not surprisingly, his percentage of runners left on base tumbled last year, despite being the exact same guy he was in 2005, and his ERA went up. It turns out that we didn’t irrationally hate Jarrod Washburn – we just recognized that his success was built on a house of cards, and it was going to tumble.
So, now, I guess we get to have this same conversation all over again. Jarrod Washburn is still the exact same guy he was the last three years – seriously, look at those rate stats – but so far, in 2007, hitters are hitting the ball at his defenders and making outs. I shouldn’t have to tell you guys that a .208 batting average on balls in play is unsustainable. When he starts facing hitters who aren’t getting themselves out at every opportunity, his ERA will rise fairly significantly.
I wish Jarrod Washburn was having some kind of breakthrough season where he established himself as a quality #2 starter. He’s just not – he’s establishing himself as the most consistent pitcher of all time, and a walking example of why using ERA to evaluate pitchers is a bad idea.
So, when you read stuff like this quote:
“The big thing now is that he’s got command of all his pitches and he’s hitting his spots,” Hargrove said. “He’s been doing that in all his starts. He’s 2-2 now, and he could very well be 4-0.”
Remember that Mike Hargrove doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Jarrod Washburn is Jarrod Washburn – the outside influences that have a substantial effect on a pitcher’s ERA don’t change that.
Game 21, White Sox at Mariners
Vazquez vs Washburn, 7:05 pm. Two pitchers doing well so far go up against each other in a battle of… I don’t know. Something.
Did you know that Ted Williams pitched mop-up in 1940 for the Red Sox and recorded a strikeout — of eight time All-Star Rudy York? It’s true. This fun fact brought to you by not having the lineups yet.
Also, a couple of years ago, the White Sox won the World Series. They had a pretty balanced line-up and could hit the ball out of the park. That team doesn’t exist anymore, and this White Sox offense is terrrrrrrrrrrrrrrible.
As a team, they’re hitting .225/.317/.379 while playing in one of the best offensive home parks in baseball. And that’s with Jim Thome (.340/.553/.680), who is now on the disabled list and won’t be playing against the M’s. Konerko and Dye have reverted back to their mediocre selves, while role players such as Crede, Erstad, and Pierzynski have just been downright horrible.
I fully expect to be reading all about Jarrod Washburn’s latest masterful performance in tomorrow morning’s papers. If he keeps facing Triple-A line-ups every start, he might just run away with the Cy Young award.
Stay in shape, Jose
This may have been mentioned, deep in the comments somewhere as often happens (cough *msb* cough), but I ran across this today — Jose Lopez’ new contract includes some rather interesting performance clauses. This, from the AP:
Beyond the usual award bonuses, Lopez could earn another $125,000 annually by passing four, in-season tests: body-fat percentage, a 60-yard sprint, a 20-yard shuttle run and a vertical jump.
Each time he passes one of those tests, he would receive $25,000. If he passes all four in the same season, he gets another $25,000. That’s a $625,000 incentive to stay fit over five years for Lopez, who is thickly built and listed at 6 feet and 200 pounds.
“Thickly built”. Heh.