Prospect Performance of the Year (to-date)
Jay will have more shortly over at Mariner Minors I’m sure, but I thought it was worth pointing out that near-unanimously unpopular 1st round draft pick Nick Franklin turned in the best offensive performance in recent Ms prospect history tonight. The 19-year-old went 4-4 for the Clinton Lumber Kings, with a double, a triple, and two home runs.
Single games in the minors don’t mean anything, but teenagers who can hit for power in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League are a rare commodity. Teenagers who can do so and play a competent shortstop are rarer still. If Franklin proves over the next few months that he has more power in him than scouts believed on draft day, we may have something special on our hands.
Game Six Recap
Yay, 2-4.
Try not to get used to the recap-right-after-the-game-ends, as I’m not going to be able to watch every game live, especially on weekends. On Saturdays, we’re going to run into a lot of Fox blackouts, so I probably won’t have much to say on those days, since it kind of helps to be able to watch the game in order to talk about it.
So, here’s an abridged version – nice hit Guti, nice catch Guti, nice win guys.
Game Six, Mariners at Rangers
Hernandez vs Harrison, 12:10 pm
Happy Felix Day, indeed.
The M’s switch up the line-up a little bit, moving Bradley down to the #5 spot. I’m sure this is a “take the pressure off of Milton” move, but it’s not like Jose Lopez is killing the ball right now or anything, and this could come back to haunt the M’s in the late innings. Most of the Rangers good relievers are right-handers, so if the top of the order gets on and Lopez comes up with Bradley on deck, Wak may regret this decision pretty quickly.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Lopez, 3B
Bradley, LF
Mascot, DH
Kotchman, 1B
Johnson, C
Wilson, SS
Game Five Recap
Boo, 1-4.
Jason Vargas pitched really well, honestly. Changed speeds, threw strikes, got some big swinging strikes when he needed to strand runners. It all came unraveled in the 6th inning when some good hitters hit some good pitches, but overall, it was an encouraging outing. If he pitches that well, the results will catch up.
The rest of it – meh. I don’t really feel like fighting the frustrated crowd. Rant away. Felix day tomorrow. Will be nice to expect a win for a change.
Okay, one comment. The correlation between the winning percentage after five games last year and the team’s final record is a measly .15 (remember, correlations are between zero, for no relation, and one, for perfect relation). A .15 correlation is basically nothing. I know, this sucks to watch, but it doesn’t mean anything.
Game 5, Mariners at Rangers
Vargs vs Lewis, 5:05 pm
This is a pretty good chance to talk about Jason Vargas, who makes his season debut tonight. He’s a pretty typical soft-tossing command lefty who throws strikes and doesn’t miss many bats, but he features one really good pitch – his change-up. It’s one of the best on the team, and is the reason that Vargas has essentially run a neutral platoon split over his career (4.60 xFIP vs LHB, 4.71 xFIP vs RHB). His fastball and breaking ball are both substandard, but with a plus change, Vargas manages to get ahead of enough hitters to serve as a decent back-end starter.
His glaring problem is the long ball. He throws a four seam fastball up in the zone, and when he doesn’t locate it just right, it’s a meatball. He’s given up 33 home runs in 218 career innings, and it’s not even driven by an abnormally high HR/FB rate. He’s an extreme flyball guy, due to the way he pitches, and that inevitably leads to home runs. On days when he keeps the ball in the park, he’ll look pretty good. When he doesn’t, he’ll look pretty terrible. It basically boils down to that.
So, he makes his season debut in Texas, facing a line-up that features guys like Vladimir Guerrero, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton, and Chris Davis. Can’t say this is the kind of team he’s setup to do well against. So, I guess my suggestion is don’t judge Vargas based on tonight – a homer prone lefty making his debut against a home run hitting team in Texas is not really a recipe for success.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Kotchman, 1B
Bradley, LF
Griffey, DH
Lopez, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Moore, C
Wilson, SS
Rainiers Opening Day Recap
The Tacoma Rainiers opened 2010 with a loss, thanks in large part to Rockies prospect Jhoulys Chacin, who went 5 shutout innings, striking out 6, walking one, and allowing only a single to Tommy Everidge. He threw a sinking fastball at about 90/91 with great command, along with a change and a rare curve. Chacin was the minor league pitcher of the year in 2008, but struggled with his command in 2009 in AAA and in a brief call-up with the Rockies. Judging from tonight’s game, he’s put those issues behind him.
I’m hyping Chacin because the M’s prospects looked ugly tonight, and we need to put those struggles in context. Ezequiel Carrera hit the ball hard (and in the air, which were the only two air outs Chacin allowed), but ended the day 0-4. Greg Halman struck out in his first three AAA at-bats, but having someone who struggles with pitch recognition open the year against a pitcher with an exceptional change-up probably wasn’t ideal. He did manage a base on balls off a scuffling Juan Rincon. Mike Saunders earned the only free pass off of Chacin (though Chacin also K’d him) and also singled to left off a reliever. Mike Carp and Matt Mangini also started the year with 0-4 nights.
Defensively, the Rainiers trot out three OFs who’ve played CF in the past. I’d imagine all of them will rotate through the three OF positions, but for tonight, Saunders got the call for CF, with Carrera in LF and Halman in right. For the most part, they looked OK; Carrera struggled a bit to track some FBs, though strong winds certainly played a role. Halman seemed to take good routes in his few chances, and played a carom off the fence beautifully to keep Mike Paulk to a single.
It’s one game, and it’s one game against a really tough pitcher (reliever Edgmer Escalona‘s no slouch either). But if Milton Bradley’s going to play LF 5 days a week, the likelihood that the M’s will need to use one of their OF prospects (at least for a while) is pretty high. Saunders still has the inside track, both offensively and defensively, but it certainly would be nice if Carrera makes the decision a bit harder.
(Opening day photos here)
For Comparison
The Angels are also 1-3 after four games. They were playing at home.
They have scored 12 runs, half of those coming on opening day.
Brandon Wood, the guy they are counting on to replace Chone Figgins at third base, is 1 for 12 with 5 strikeouts, looking just as lost as he always has in the big leagues.
Jeff Mathis, he of the projected .281 wOBA, has started three of the first four games behind the plate, while Mike Napoli (projected .367 wOBA) sits and watches. Napoli is the Angels second or third best hitter, and he has four plate appearances so far.
None of their four starters have pitched beyond the 6th inning. Joe Saunders got pounded, and Ervin Santana’s average fastball in his first start was 93.5 MPH, up from last year but still down 1.5 MPH over his breakout 2008 season. Joel Pineiro walked three batters in his first start since shifting back to the AL – he only walked three batters in one start all of last year.
Their new $7 million setup man, Fernando Rodney, gave up four runs last night, and is now sporting an ERA of 18.00.
Breakout star hitter Kendry Morales is 3 for 17 with no walks and one extra base hit.
If you’re freaking out about how bad the Mariners have looked, and how many players are off to poor starts, and how this is the end of the world, then I guess you also think that the Angels are toast as well. If you think its too early to count Anaheim out, and that they’ll start playing better soon, well, then, yeah, don’t forget to apply that feeling to the home town nine as well.
Game Four Recap
Boo, 1-3.
It was Doug Fister vs Brett Anderson. They weren’t going to win this game without a lot of luck. And then Rajai Davis took away a home run from Milton Bradley, and you just got the feeling that this wasn’t a get lucky kind of day.
So, rather than write about the ineptitude that was today, let’s talk about the bigger picture. We talked about how this was something like an 84 win team in terms of true talent level, but that projection includes the value the team is supposed to get from Cliff Lee, Erik Bedard, and Jack Hannahan when they return from the DL. This roster, the one the M’s are running out there right now, is more like a 76 or 77 win team.
So, yeah, they looked like crap for most of the last three days. Well, right now, they kind of are. When Lee got hurt, the odds of them playing well in April went down significantly. The dropoff from Lee to Fister is pretty dramatic, and it affects the rest of the roster. This team, as currently constructed, is going to be pretty frustrating to watch at times. April is survival month, where the goal is just to keep within shouting distance of the rest of the division so they can try and make a run when they get the injured guys back in the fold.
So, hang in there. The Angels went 9-13 in April last year, then rallied once Lackey and crew got healthy. That’s the path the M’s have to take this year. It’s not going to look good this month. There are going to be too many days like today, where the team doesn’t look capable of beating anyone. But, don’t abandon ship yet. This isn’t the team the M’s put together this winter, and it’s not the team we’re going to see in a month or so. If we get into May and the team still can’t play, we’ll all freak out together then.
For April, though, let’s just all try to not break too many bones jumping off the bandwagon. The first month is going to suck. Let’s just try to survive it.
Game 4, Mariners at A’s
Fister vs Anderson, 12:35 pm.
For an encore to the last two days, the team now gets to face the A’s best pitcher. I love Brett Anderson. Love him. A lefty with a sinking mid-90s fastball and a knockout slider who commands both and knows how to pitch at age 22? It doesn’t get a whole lot better than that. He’s on the verge of being really special, and he’ll have days where no one can touch him. Hopefully, today is not one of those days.
Doug Fister is no Brett Anderson.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Bradley, LF
Mascot, DH
Lopez, 3B
Tuiasosopo, 1B
Moore, C
Wilson, SS
The End Of The Six Man Bullpen
That didn’t take long. The M’s have decided that three days is enough, and the six man bullpen is no more. Jesus Colome has been called up from Tacoma to give the team another arm out of the pen. To take his place on the roster, Ryan Langerhans has been designated for assignment.
There’s no nice way to say this – the team is now actively making themselves worse to keep Mike Sweeney’s personality around. Langerhans is a better hitter, a better fielder, a better runner, and a guy who can actually serve a useful purpose on this team. Mike Sweeney is a mascot taking up a roster spot. Now, it’s not just some theoretically useful player he’s blocking, but an actual, honest to goodness major league player that the team is discarding to keep his cheerleading behind around.
This sucks. Go away, Mike Sweeney. If you want to hang out with the guys, accept a coaching job.