Griffey Retires
Per Ryan Divish on twitter, the M’s have just called an impromptu press conference to announce Ken Griffey Jr’s retirement.
We’ll deal with what this means for the 2010 Mariners tomorrow. I know a lot of you love the guy, so this thread is for you to say goodbye.
The First Base Problem
With a limited budget, the Mariners took a chance on the hope of Casey Kotchman‘s untapped potential. A good hitter in the minors (and in the majors in 2007, his first year of regular playing time), the M’s hoped to buy low on a guy who could be more than he had been previously. In a lot of ways, Kotchman was this year’s Franklin Gutierrez.
Unlike with Death To Flying Things, it hasn’t worked out so well. The M’s talked of tweaking Kotchman’s swing and how he could take advantage of Safeco Field, but 175 plate appearances into the experiment, and Kotchman’s been almost exactly the same guy he was last year (even if the results don’t show it). A quick comparison:
2009: 9% BB%, 11% K%, .114 ISO, 51% GB%, 7% HR/FB
2010: 9% BB%, 12% K%, .123 ISO, 53% GB%, 8% HR/FB
His atrocious batting average is driven by a .201 batting average on balls in play, well below the .283 mark he posted last year, and has taken a decent player and made him useless so far. That will change – he’s not nearly as bad as his overall batting line would indicate.
But, regression to last year’s number isn’t what the M’s were hoping for. He wasn’t supposed to be the same guy as last year. The M’s were betting on improvement, and so far, there hasn’t been any. He’s still pounding the ball into the ground, limiting his ability to hit for power. He doesn’t have an extra base hit since May 5th, despite playing first base almost every day. The defense is nice, but even with a solid glove, he was just a +1 win player in 430 plate appearances last year, and he ended up as a reserve on a contending team.
It’s June, and it’s getting close to the time where the M’s may have to admit that Kotchman isn’t going to be Gutierrez 2.0. They’ve given him a chance to get back to what he was in 2007, and he hasn’t done it. He’s been the exact same disappointing player of the last few years, only with worse luck. And that’s just not going to cut it, no matter what direction the team decides to go in.
If they want to try to contend, they probably need to upgrade at first base. If they want to rebuild, well, Kotchman’s not part of the future here. He’s arbitration eligible at the end of the year, and I don’t think anyone wants to pay him roughly $4 to $5 million to try again next year. He’s a non-tender guy, so barring a monster second half, his Mariner career probably ends with 2010. So, you’re not building for the future by running him out there either.
No matter which way they go, the direction probably shouldn’t include Casey Kotchman, starting first baseman. They either need to upgrade the position or give the playing time to someone who might actually be around in 2011.
Game 51, Twins at Mariners
Blackburn vs Vargas, 7:10 pm.
For Vargas, it should be an interesting night. On one hand, the Twins line-up is very left-handed, which helps him. On the other hand, those left-handed hitters are really good, so that’s kind of a problem. I’d expect more fastballs than usual tonight, but if he doesn’t have pinpoint location, there’s a good chance the folks in the right field bleachers could have some souvenir chasing to do.
With the team finally done facing a string of lefties, Saunders is back in the line-up playing left field. Fear not, though, as Mike Sweeney is still in there, hitting clean-up, as Saunders gives Bradley the day off instead. I wonder if Wak realizes that Mr. Hot Bat is 1 for his last 14. In and of itself, that is meaningless information, of course, but considering that the only justification for playing him is that he’s “swinging a hot bat”, I’d say its kind of relevant to note that, well, he’s not.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Sir Hugs A Lot, DH
Lopez, 3B
Kotchman, 1B
Josh Wilson, SS
Alfonso, C
Saunders, LF
A New Feature On FanGraphs
Taking a quick break from the Mariners (let’s be honest, we all need it), I wanted to let you guys know about a new feature that was rolled out over at FanGraphs this morning – customizable stat reports on every player page.
Since the days of baseball cards and looking at weekly leaderboards in the USA Today, we’ve all become accustomed to consuming the statistics that are offered to us. For years, people believed in Batting Average, Home Runs, Runs Batted In, Wins, and ERA, because those were the numbers that the media presented to them. Over time, better metrics were introduced, but it’s always been up to you to go find them. Now, however, FanGraphs is giving you the chance to create a custom report that goes at the top of every single player page on the site, with the stats that you want to see, and nothing else.
Here’s mine, using Franklin Gutierrez as an example.
I get everything I want on one line – age, plate appearances, BA/OBP/SLG and his wOBA in one box, allowing me to see how well he’s hit in each year of his career. In the next box, I have the factors that make up the first part, showing where his performance is coming from – walk rate, strikeout rate, isolated slugging, ground ball rate, home run to fly ball ratio, and batting average on balls in play. This section shows me where the value is coming from, and whether its something we might be able to identify as real improvement (the spike in BB%, for instance) or whether its mostly luck (like his current BABIP, which he won’t keep up). Finally, I get total value breakdowns, with his offensive and defensive run values above average and a total WAR value.
But, you don’t have to be like me. Maybe you want to see how often a guy is swinging, and what kinds of pitches he’s swinging at? No problem, all the plate discipline stats are there for you to pick from. Want to know how clutch a guy has been? Pick from the win probability stats, which take the game context into account. Want to see what types of pitches he’s doing well against? Our linear weights pitch type values are part of the customization package. Or, hey, if you want to be old school, stick BA, HR, and RBI on there. It’s really up to you.
There’s a reason we partnered with FanGraphs – it’s stuff like this. Fan friendly, practically useful tools to help you understand and enjoy the game better. You don’t have to go hunting for high quality statistics anymore. Now, they come to you.