The Mariners have Drifted Back to the Middle
|MARINERS (16-19)||ΔMs||ATHLETICS (18-18)||EDGE|
|HITTING (wOBA*)||-11.6 (23rd)||1.5||18.3 (4th)||Athletics|
|FIELDING (RBBIP)||7.0 (8th)||8.7||-10.9 (26th)||Mariners|
|ROTATION (xRA)||7.8 (8th)||1.6||7.1 (9th)||Mariners|
|BULLPEN (xRA)||0.7 (14th)||-3.8||1.0 (13th)||Athletics|
|OVERALL (RAA)||3.9 (14th)||9.4||15.5 (8th)||ATHLETICS|
Well that was a bad two weeks of Mariners’ baseball for me to miss as the M’s went 8-4 and climbed back to the edge of contention. They hadn’t been as bad as their record back in late April so some regression in the win-loss column is not surprising. If only they could beat the Astros as other teams do they could be above that .500 plateau right now.
|Batter||PA||P/PA||Slash line||nBB||K (sw)||1B/2B/3B/HR||Sw-||Ct+||Qual+|
|K Seager*||48||4.1||.239/.250/.370||1||14 (10)||8 / 1 / 1 / 1||92||102||81|
|M Morse||42||3.8||.216/.310/.459||5||10 (7)||5 / 0 / 0 / 3||115||94||83|
|K Morales^||40||3.8||.250/.350/.306||4||6 (6)||7 / 2 / 0 / 0||98||96||91|
|D Ackley*||38||4.3||.257/.316/.343||3||7 (3)||8 / 0 / 0 / 1||75||108||83|
|J Bay||36||4.1||.276/.389/.552||6||7 (6)||4 / 2 / 0 / 2||81||91||80|
|M Saunders*||36||4.3||.267/.389/.600||6||11 (7)||4 / 1 / 0 / 3||85||92||144|
|J Smoak^||34||3.8||.286/.412/.393||6||7 (6)||5 / 3 / 0 / 0||83||106||116|
|J Montero||28||3.0||.200/.286/.520||3||6 (5)||2 / 0 / 1 / 2||103||87||122|
|R Andino||24||3.4||.182/.292/.227||2||6 (2)||3 / 1 / 0 / 0||92||111||87|
|E Chavez*||23||3.1||.273/.261/.273||0||5 (5)||6 / 0 / 0 / 0||110||95||102|
|B Ryan||20||3.6||.118/.250/.118||3||3 (3)||2 / 0 / 0 / 0||121||100||104|
|K Shoppach||20||3.4||.235/.350/.353||3||7 (5)||2 / 2 / 0 / 0||98||76||28|
The above table neatly captures how the hitters did while I was away since I limit it to the last 14 days only. I love being able to catch up over a marginally relevant sample size instead of just a game or two. I do not love Kyle Seager’s 14 strikeouts and one walk but I note that his swing and contact rates are still fine and relax.
It’s especially pleasing to see a good K:BB ratio out of Justin Smoak. That’s actually what I primarily look for out of Smoak, not home runs. First baseman are typically thought of more as the mashers, the Mike Morse types, but Smoak never showed a track record like that.
It’s been mentioned many times that Smoak does not seem particularly strong and that certainly seems true. But I don’t believe that dooms him to being useless. What he did show as a prospect was good on base skills and he was liked for his defense coming up. If he can recover that sheen and turn into a middle class John Olerud type, that would be perfectly acceptable and genuinely stellar after what we’ve seen the last couple years.
A guy who is supernaturally strong is Jesus Montero. I wonder if the coaches can convince him that he doesn’t need to swing so aggressively because he can use his strength to punish balls even without hitting them in the pull sweet spot. In other words, focus more on contact, Jesus. Leverage your strength. You don’t need to compensate by trying to pull everything.
|Batter||PA||P/PA||Slash line||nBB||SO (sw)||1B/2B/3B/HR||Sw-||Ct+||Qual+|
|J Donaldson||57||4.5||.306/.421/.510||8||13 (8)||9 / 4 / 0 / 2||98||98||115|
|S Smith*||54||4.4||.208/.236/.302||1||17 (13)||8 / 2 / 0 / 1||101||96||92|
|J Lowrie^||53||4.2||.178/.302/.222||8||4 (3)||6 / 2 / 0 / 0||89||114||121|
|Y Cespedes||52||3.8||.244/.308/.511||5||15 (13)||6 / 1 / 1 / 3||108||90||114|
|A Rosales||47||3.5||.310/.396/.476||5||10 (7)||8 / 4 / 0 / 1||81||95||99|
|B Moss*||45||3.8||.263/.378/.474||7||14 (14)||6 / 2 / 0 / 2||123||82||128|
|D Norris||39||4.3||.176/.282/.206||5||11 (8)||5 / 1 / 0 / 0||74||104||110|
|J Reddick*||34||4.4||.111/.265/.148||6||8 (6)||2 / 1 / 0 / 0||102||101||106|
|J Jaso*||34||4.1||.296/.471/.333||7||4 (4)||7 / 1 / 0 / 0||78||109||99|
|E Sogard*||27||3.1||.192/.222/.192||1||4 (2)||5 / 0 / 0 / 0||109||120||95|
|C Crisp^||21||4.1||.222/.333/.333||3||1 (0)||2 / 2 / 0 / 0||71||117||79|
The A’s have been a good hitting team so far this season but have struggled of late with an 88 wRC+ over the last two weeks even though they’ve held baseball’s highest walk rate over that period. They just narrowly edged out the Mariners in that regard who have walked in 10% of their plate appearances to Oakland’s 10.2%.
The Athletics are following in the footsteps of other teams and platooning John Jaso against left-handed pitchers. He has faced a righty 97 times to just 11 lefties. In those 11 plate appearances against a lefty this season, Jaso is 3-for-9 with a walk and 0 strikeouts. Just awful.
Oh, and Jaso is currently on pace for a 2 WAR season.
|INFIELD||3.2 (12th)||4.5||-16.6 (30th)||Mariners|
|OUTFIELD||3.8 (13th)||4.2||5.7 (11th)||Athletics|
|RBBIP||0.297 (10th)||-.009||0.318 (23rd)||Mariners|
|OVERALL||7.0 (8th)||8.7||-10.9 (26th)||MARINERS|
One area that my defensive numbers do not cover that more advanced systems like DRS and UZR do cover is in measuring throwing arms. I am strictly attempting to measure how often batted balls are turned into outs. I think that’s the most stable and robust measurement for team defense, but I’m aware it’s not comprehensive.
The Mariners have not been particularly strong in the throwing runners out/preventing runners from advancing department, so I’d temper your excitement over their defensive rankings above somewhat.
10 MAY 19:10 – HISASHI IWAKUMA vs DAN STRAILY
11 MAY 18:10 – BRANDON MAURER vs JARROD PARKER
Brandon Maurer’s change up is really bad. The above is the visual representation of Dave’s note on Maurer a week ago. Maurer has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters this season and it’s easy to see why when he’s only been able to effectively use a fastball and slider.
The Athletics can and likely will run out a lineup consisting of 5-6 left-handed hitters against Maurer. Brandon is going to have to perform significantly better with his change up otherwise he will be ripe for destruction facing such a lineup.
12 MAY 13:10 – JOE SAUNDERS* vs TOMMY MILONE*
I didn’t expect Joe Saunders to be a huge asset for the team, and I don’t think anyone did, but I certainly expected better than what he’s provided thus far. By practically every measure, Saunders has been awful this season, but is that from a deterioration in his skill set or is perhaps just a bad run?
Saunders’ pitch speeds aren’t down and his overall strike zone numbers are in line with his established past so it doesn’t appear that he’s fighting an injury or has lost his control. The rates that worry me are his batted ball numbers, specifically hitters have been teeing off for line drives and lots of pulled fly balls, and his elevated contact rate.
The contact rate increase has come entirely on pitches swung at outside the strike zone which suggests that Saunders is possibly suffering from a step down in the movement or deception of his pitches. He’s fooling hitters less often. Without a reversion in that, it’ll be hard for Saunders to correct the currently miserable strikeout to walk ratio. It bears monitoring.
|B Beavan||48||100||4||98||8 (6)||94||2||104||0.5|
|C Capps||45||102||2||96||13 (11)||60||3||120||1.2|
|T Wilhelmsen||41||117||1||98||10 (7)||98||0||123||1.5|
|H Noesi||39||103||2||107||6 (4)||51||0||125||0.3|
|O Perez*||29||95||4||80||8 (7)||93||0||96||1.3|
|Y Medina||28||94||3||96||10 (6)||151||0||41||0.3|
|C Furbush*||24||100||3||77||12 (9)||142||0||79||1.2|
Hector Noesi has been surprisingly tolerable as a reliever. He isn’t pitching any quicker though.
|E Scribner||57||100||4||113||7 (4)||99||3||87||0.4|
|C Resop||56||90||10||110||6 (2)||96||1||140||0.5|
|J Blevins*||51||102||0||100||12 (12)||76||1||90||1.1|
|R Cook||46||106||3||103||12 (10)||110||0||105||1.3|
|P Neshek||46||109||4||92||6 (5)||50||1||126||0.3|
|G Balfour||40||96||3||95||12 (11)||54||1||170||1.8|
|S Doolittle*||36||115||3||90||11 (10)||93||2||76||1.1|
|J Chavez||21||106||1||98||3 (3)||107||0||59||0.1|
|B Anderson*||20||103||1||100||5 (4)||129||0||65||2.6|