Game 17: Verlander vs. Felix and Astros vs. Mariners
King Felix vs. Justin Verlander, 6:10pm
Tonight’s starters debuted exactly a month apart back in 2005, and both became the most durable starters in the league not long after. Both struggled a bit in their first few seasons, as their raw staff was far ahead of their execution and strategy, and frankly, with the weight of the expectation placed on them. They soon figured it out, and after Felix won the Cy Young in 2010, it was Verlander who followed in 2011 (and doubled up by winning MVP). But in 2014, in the midst of a league-wide depression in batting, Verlander started to falter. His fastball velocity, which had sat at 95-96 in 2011, was down to 93, and his strikeouts dropped markedly. His FIP wasn’t terrible, but thanks to a poor strand rate (which was influenced by his lack of strikeouts), he had an awful ERA (and DRA actually saw him as below-replacement-level) and it looked like years of reliably tossing 230+ innings were catching up to him.
At the same time, Felix was in the midst of his peak. Felix threw 236 brilliant innings in 2014, with an ERA of 2.14, and a FIP not far behind at 2.56; DRA splits the difference. In all of these metrics, 2014 ranks as his career low. Felix looked like he was just getting warmed up in 2014, but…well, you know. 2015 was something of an transitional year for both. Verlander missed a fair number of starts for the first time, ending the year with just 133 1/3 IP, and posting a FIP in the mid-3s. His K rate trended up, as did his velocity, but both were pretty far from his peak of a few years earlier. Meanwhile, Felix just crept over 200 IP, but each peripheral stat trended the wrong way, and he ended up with a FIP in the mid-3s, too.
And then their paths really forked. There wasn’t as much movement in Verlander’s FIP thanks to the league-wide HR binge in 2016, but with Felix’s control trending south right when his legendary HR-suppression was starting to fade, Felix was in trouble. Verlander’s K rate spiked to 28%, a new career high. Felix’s fell below 20% for the first time. He was hanging on by a thread, while Verlander was starting to look more like the Verlander of 2011.
After a trade to the :shudders: Astros, Verlander changed his pitch mix a bit and gained all of the velocity he’d lost since 2011. He’s back at 96, and after winning a World Series in 2017, he’s coming off a 2018 that saw him obliterate his prior best for K rate, at an obscene 34.8% Felix is coming off of a year in which he was banished to the bullpen and pretty publicly challenged/shamed by his coaches. He’s now the M’s 5th starter, and his position on the team has never been more perilous. He’s three years younger than Verlander, but age seemed to slow him, while Verlander shrugged off its clutches.
The point here isn’t to compare Felix unfavorably, though God knows I’m sure plenty of M’s fans and even M’s personnel have done so. Rather, it’s to say that Verlander crafted a pathway to undo, to reverse, age-related decline. These things are possible, if unlikely (though less unlikely every year). What they take is hard work, of course, but a very specific plan and specific areas to work on. Not “strength” or “conditioning” or “using your lower half” or whatever, but specific, actionable, targeted, measurable things that can lead to velo gain and improvement. For all of the grief I’ve given the M’s for how they handled the Felix situation, I’ll give them credit for turning over a fair bit of their player development folks. The key is to ensure that the PD folks and analytics staff communicate and help each other. It’s hard, and if you’ve got a pitcher who rebuffs both groups, then, welp, that’s not going to work. But I would love to know what the Astros would do with Felix if he ended up over there.
1: Smith, CF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Santana, LF
4: Bruce, 1B
5: Vogelbach, DH
6: Beckham, SS
7: Narvaez, C
8: Healy, 3B
9: Gordon, 2B
SP: FELIX
Justus Sheffield continues to battle some wonky fastball command, but he made it through 4 IP yesterday on 3 walks and 2 Ks, giving up 2 runs. But the R’s bats destroyed the Albuquerque Isotopes 10-3, as Shed Long went 3-4 with a triple and JP Crawford doubled. Nabil Crismatt starts tonight’s game.
Arkansas lost to Tulsa 8-2, as the Drillers scored 6 in the 7th off of Darin Gillies. Jake Fraley was 1-2 with 2 BBs, and used those times on base to run rampant, stealing 3 bases before getting caught once. Today’s game was rained out.
Modesto lost to Stockton 6-2. Nick Wells gave up 5 in 4 1/3, and the Nuts didn’t score until the 6th. Ray Kerr starts today’s contest.
Augusta beat West Virginia 9-3, but they cheated: they knocked out Julio Rodriguez on a HBP to his hand in the first. He’ll be out a few days, but apparently X-rays didn’t spot any fractures. Whew. The Power got a modicum of revenge by winning today’s game 2-1, as Steven Moyers went 7 scoreless, striking out 9. Augusta pitchers again plunked an M’s prospect, as Jarred Kelenic got hit (he was fine, and stayed in the game). I’m still navigating the Sally League, and don’t know it very well, but I DO have a least-favorite team now.
Game 16, Astros at BASEBALL’S DOMINATING, INVICIBLE FORCE
Wade LeBlanc vs. Wade Miley, 7:10pm
So, this game pits the two Wades against each other, two lefties who both pitched for the 2016 M’s, where LeBlanc was acquired to eat the innings Miley would have, had he not been dumped traded. Both Wades feature unimpressive fastballs, and both have been susceptible to the HR in recent years. As such, both were projected to pitch around 110-120 IP this year at a mediocre/below average rate. ZiPS was higher on both, and in particular Miley, while Steamer was more pessimistic. Any projection system had to figure out what to do about their surprising 2018s. Both pitchers posted solid ERAs, and if their fielding-independent stats weren’t as sparkly, they were better than they’d been in a while. Miley famously started using a different pitch in Milwaukee, but he wasn’t striking anyone out. LeBlanc *was* getting some strikeouts, but his FIP improvement was largely down to strand rate and the ever-fickle HR/FB ratio. Tough to bet on that.
While the pitchers were similar, with similar concerns and similar reasons-for-what-passes-for-optimism, the context of the two teams employing them couldn’t be more different. The Astros want to win another World Series and have assembled their team accordingly. Their line-up projects to be one of the game’s best, even if they’re not playing like it right now (my view is warped by the M’s; every other team looks pitiful, like dead-ball-era holdovers in comparison). But they somewhat shockingly passed on re-signing both Charlie Morton and 2015 Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel, with the only real pitching addition being…Wade Miley. Is there a better sign of baseball’s odd competition problem than the presumptive division winner and playoff team ditching Dallas Keuchel for Wade F$%^ing Miley? It’s been all of two games, so caveats abound, but here’s the deal: Wade Miley looks a hell of a lot like Dallas Keuchel right now. God damnit, Astros.
The M’s weren’t supposed to contend at all, and their low-dollar extension of LeBlanc helped keep a solid, potentially undervalued starter and clubhouse guy around. If he wasn’t projected to be league average, well, who cares from the 4th starter on a rebuilding team? He could help mentor some of the young guys (like Marco Gonzales), and he could give the Erik Swansons and Justus Sheffields in the org some additional seasoning time. Except now, the M’s are suddenly relevant and winning a ton of games. They could conceivably need quality innings out LeBlanc. Can he deliver them? I’m going to be honest, I don’t really know. But I also know that it hasn’t mattered yet, and nothing about…pitching will matter until the offense stops partying like it’s 1999. May the party never stop.
Seriously: before the year, everyone identified pitching as a serious weakness, with the bullpen a particular cause for concern. So far, those worries have been pretty spot on. The M’s are yielding 5 runs a game, and while the rotation has at least limited walks, the bullpen is giving them out like candy. But here, in a weird, almost poetic inversion of the M’s problems over the past few years, the M’s caught a break: everyone else sucks too.
For years, the M’s suffered not because they didn’t really understand their own talent level, but rather because they couldn’t see where that level put them vis a vis their rivals. They were right about themselves, but wrong about what that meant. I’d guess the same thing happened with the FO this year, and I will raise my hand and say that I know with 100% certainty I’ve been wrong thus far about what the M’s bad bullpen *means*. It’s meant nothing. Will it continue to mean nothing? Ehhh, probably not, but it’s important to see that M’s bullpen’s 5.34 BB/9 or 13% walk rate isn’t close to the worst in the league. The Astros and Angels (?) have been amazing by peripherals or raw results, respectively, but it hasn’t been as important as run scoring for the M’s (or, for the Rays, overall run prevention). It’s early, and so production in one area will cover for a bad showing somewhere else, and I don’t expect relievers overall to be this bad, but after years of awful luck, the M’s very much known weakness smacked headlong into a more unknown, collective weakness in the league.
Wade Miley throws a cutter now, and he’s essentially ditched his old slider. The fastball’s down to more of a side-dish as well, at around 20% of his pitches. The cutter’s thrown around 88 with the fastball at 90, and he’s got a curve and change as well. In his very good first full-season in the bigs in 2012, Miley looked like a pitch-to-contact command/control guy with a very low walk rate, but he wasn’t able to hold onto it. Over time, he gave up more fly balls and a lot more walks, and he did so *right* when the ball got juicy, punishing fly ball pitchers without great command/control. Two years ago, I thought he’d be out of baseball by now, but here is again, with a walk rate of 4% and a GB% of nearly 60%. Like I said, it’s very Keuchel-esque. While it’s not peak Keuchel, we can perhaps call it suburban Dallas.
1: Smith, CF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Santana, LF
4: Encarnacion, 1B
5: Bruce, DH
6: Beckham, SS
7: Healy, 3B
8: Murphy, C
9: Gordon, 2B
SP: LeBlanc
The M’s made a couple of roster moves today, adding Shawn Armstrong and RJ Alaniz to the pen. To make room, Matt Festa and Erik Swanson head to Tacoma.
Tacoma dropped the finale of their series against El Paso 6-2, despite two hits each from JP Crawford and Shed Long. Tyler Danish got tagged with the loss, but Ryan Garton was solid in relief. Today, they welcome the Albuquerque Isotopes, with Justus Sheffield facing off against the ‘Topes Evan Grills, a 26-year old Canadian lefty dropped by the Astros org in 2016 and signed by Colorado in 2018.
Arkansas moved to 7-1 by holding on for a 9-8 win over their favorite punching bad, the Tulsa Drillers. The Travs led 8-1 before some seriously shaky relief work made it interesting. Jake Fraley hit his first HR in the org, and Zac Grotz went 4 scoreless for Arkanasas, striking out 6. Like Grills, Grotz was drafted by Houston, but has been in and out of a few more orgs since his release in 2016. Anthony Misiewicz takes the hill today for the Travelers.
Modesto ran into a red hot Brady Feigl and got blanked by Stockton, 5-0. Feigl shut them out over 6 IP with 9Ks, moving his K:BB ratio in two Cal League starts to 17:3, and his ERA down under 1. If you’ve heard of Feigl, it may be because of this bizarre coincidence reported on last year by Levi Weaver and Katherine Acquavella. There are now two pitchers in pro ball with the same, uncommon name of Brady Feigl, and weirder still, they look like twin brothers, even though they’re not related and aren’t the same age. Anyway, M’s prospect Damon Casetta-Stubbs got into his first game action in the high-minors yesterday, giving up 4 unearned runs in 2 1/3, but striking out 3. Not bad for a high school draft pick last year. He’ll probably move to a short-season affiliate when they get going, as he’d only played for the rookie-level Arizona M’s last year after the draft.
West Virginia blanked Augusta at home 4-0 behind what may be Ryne Inman’s best start in the Org. Inman went 6 scoreless, giving up 2 hits, 1 walk against 8 punchouts. Julio Rodriguez went 0-5, but Jarred Kelenic continues to shake off a slow opening week by going 3-4. Elias Espino get the ball tonight for the Power.
Game 15, Mariners at Royals
Mike Leake vs. Jorge Lopez, 10:15am
The M’s are 12-2. I know they’re facing the hapless Royals, but I guess I didn’t anticipate how many times I’d look over the probables and whatnot and just *expect* the Mariners to win. It happened yesterday, and even though the M’s did almost enough to somehow lose, they found a way to win. (Seriously guys, that was unnecessary. Just get back to dominating again.)
Today, they again face a Royals team that starts Terrance Gore in the line-up (and why wouldn’t they, after yesterday’s stunning 3-4 performance at the plate) and with a pitcher who seems destined for an ERA/FIP around 5 or so. Jorge Lopez came over from the Brewers a while back, and has good velocity with his four-seam and sinker. But despite throwing two fastballs, a cutter/slider, a change and a decent curve, there’s just not much there to get excited about. His walk rate’s high and his K rate is too low, and they’ve been that way for his entire career. The movement on each is unremarkable, and even the decent drop on his curve’s been more muted this year.
1: Smith, CF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Santana, LF
4: Encarnacion, 1B
5: Vogelbach, DH
6: Beckham, SS
7: Healy, 3B
8: Murphy, C
9: Gordon, 2B
SP: Leake
Game 14, Mariners at Royals
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Heath Fillmyer, 5:15pm
I’ve looked over the starting line-ups, and friends, I’m shook. I’m going to need to post the Royals starting line-up too, because I’m not sure I’ve seen the like of it, and I posted about the 2010 Seattle Mariners hundreds of times. I’m going to need a minute here….
Ok. What do you do when your opponent’s biggest strength is your big weakness? There are a number of things, really, but they break down into two major categories. First, you can work on cutting down the gap by improving whatever deficit you’ve got. Second, you can ignore that gap and instead lean even harder on whatever advantage you possess; you’ll let them have a big advantage in X, but you’ll hit ’em with some serious Y when the opportunity presents itself. The Mariners, as we’ve discussed extensively, are Dingermen the likes of which we haven’t seen since 1998. They are quite simply bludgeoning teams, making their own weaknesses in defense and relief pitching irrelevant. The Royals are one of baseball’s most punchless teams, with 7 HRs on the season, but that *undersells* their struggles at the plate. Their OBP is easily under .300, and what’s worse, it’s not just an early season slump. They were made for this. If you’re going to opt for “playing up your own strength and ignoring the deficit area” the implicit rule is that your strength and the opponent’s strength have to be roughly equivalent in importance. If not, well, you get this.
What’s that supposed to mean? I mean: Billy Hamilton, the offensively-challenged CF and stolen-base auteur is batting *second* tonight. You know, the spot where you’re supposed to put your best overall hitter. Actually Billy Hamilton! Hamilton sports a career OBP of .298, and what I’m trying to convey here, through bewildered laughter, is that in this line-up, that’s not half bad. #3 hitter Adalberto Mondesi’s career OBP is .274, and while he hit 14 dingers last year, his game’s more about speed. Clean-up hitter Jorge Soler is a perfectly fine prospect, but things pick up speed at the back of the order. #5 hitter Frank Schwindel is 1-12 with no walks in his brief career. Chris Owings put up a wRC+ of 51 last year in Arizona, and is 5-34 on the year with 13 Ks and 2 walks. #7 hitter Hunter Dozier has a career OBP of .274 as well. #8 hitter Cam Gallagher has fewer than 100 MLB PAs, but has yet to post a AAA wRC+ north of 90. And batting 9th, and making literally his first start ever, is Terrance Gore.
Terrance Gore has more career stolen based in MLB than he has plate appearences. This is because Gore is impossibly fast, and because Gore cannot hit. At all. Thus, he’s used as a pinch-runner, and, if need be, defensive replacement. With Gore, just as with Hamilton, the idea is to maximize their appearances on the basepaths by minimizing their plate appearances. He’s toiled in the minors for a while, amassing over 1900 PAs, and has a career SLG% of .273. He’s drawn walks, but essentially nothing good has come following Gore’s decision to swing a bat. The M’s are bringing a line-up that’s red hot, and the Royals are essentially mocking the idea of batting. When you get over the juxtaposition, it’s almost like performance art. It’s like a cooking competition, and one chef creates some impossibly intricate 10-course haute-cuisine meal, and the other submits a PB&J sandwich in which the peanut butter’s been replaced by drywall spackle. It’s sending Dan Vogelbach to compete against an Olympic gymnast in the floor routine, and having his entire routine comprised of standing still and chugging a beer.
The Royals definitely do like to run, and in that respect, they present a very different strategy, a differing idea of how to score runs. The M’s line-up is nearly as one-sided, I suppose, with four 1B/DH types (AND Domingo Santana), but with all eggs placed in a very different basket. It’s just that one of these strategies has a hell of a lot to do with run-scoring, particularly in 2019, and the other leads to you penciling in Terrance Gore’s name in the starting line-up, or batting Billy Hamilton second.
Health Fillmyer was just called up from AAA Omaha, and features a four-seamer without a ton of rise at 92-93, a little-used sinker, a change-up with decent sink, a so-so curve, and what looks like an interesting little slider. The slider’s fairly effective against righties, but they’ve torched his four-seam fastball. He’s been better from a results point of view against lefties, though that’s much more due to small-sample HR/FB and the like; he struggles to strike them out or to avoid bases on balls. Overall, Fillmyer doesn’t get enough Ks to offset so-so control, AND he’s been vulnerable to the long-ball. The only real hope here is the strong winds that have moved in to KC. I’m not sure what direction they’re blowing, but they blow in they could keep the M’s in the ballpark and, I don’t know, make soft fly balls off the bat of Hamilton/Owings/Gore more tricky to catch?
1: Smith, CF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Bruce, LF
4: Encarnacion, 1B
5: Vogelbach, DH
6: Beckham, SS
7: Narvaez, C
8: Healy, 3B
9: Gordon, 2B
SP: Kikuchi
The Rainiers beat El Paso in their home opener last night. As Erik Swanson was called up just before the game, they had a bullpen day, and it went exceedingly well, with the R’s racking up 16 strikeouts. Of note, South African low-3/4 guy Taylor Scott getting 6 Ks in 3 perfect innings. Jose Lobaton homered, and while Nick Rumbelow continues to scuffle, he picked up the win.
Ljay Newsome would normally have the line of the night, going 5 IP with 11Ks (where’d that come from?) against Inland Empire, but he walked 2 and gave up an unearned run on 4 hits, so we’ve got to go with Logan Gilbert, who tossed 5 scoreless on only 1 hit with no walks and 9 Ks. Arkansas won in the 9th, 4-3, to give Parker Markel (god, I love saying that) his first win in the org.
Game 13, Mariners at “Royals”
Marco Gonzales vs. Jakob Junis, 5:15pm
The M’s simply cannot stop hitting dingers, and after yesterday’s 5-spot, have established pretty conclusively that there isn’t a park in the game that can slow down the unceasing volleys from our Dingermen.
Yesterday, the Royals all but encouraged the M’s to slug them into submission by starting a pitcher who’s had HR troubles in the recent past. They’ve re-calibrated for today’s game, and instead st…:taps earpiece: whoops, no they’re doing the exact same thing again and hoping for a different outcome. If only there were a pithy saying to summarize this pattern of thought.
Today, the M’s face righty Jakob Junis, a former 29th-round pick from 2011 who featured a so-so fastball but an interesting slider and solid control. He slowly advanced up the chain, and has been a fairly solid SP on a team that could desperately use one. He’s posted average- to above-average K rates, which, for a K-starved rotation who’s best pitcher is a Rule 5 pitch-to-contact GB% maven, is a welcome sight. What’s more, though his FB only averages 91, it’s had interesting sinker-ish movement in the past, with well-below average rise. His slider really dives down, so the whole package could work together, but in this case movement isn’t destiny. Because of his location (I think?), Junis’ four-seamer doesn’t get GBs at all. It’s a FB pitch, and with below-average HR/FB rates, that’s made it a pitch that sluggers have feasted on, with SLG%-against in the high .500s over his first two years. He’ll work in a sinker, especially to lefties, and while slugging’s slightly lower against it, its own HR/FB ratio isn’t a whole lot better. By and large, Junis has been fine except for the fact that he can’t keep batters in the park with his fastballs. And now he’ll face the 2019 Seattle Mariners.
Junis changed up the spin axis and thus the movement on that four-seamer this year, giving it more useful spin, and thus pushing its vertical rise over 10″, which is considerable given it was under 8″ last year. Will that make a difference? I suppose it’s still down to where he locates it, but of course this isn’t a path towards fewer fly balls. It could increase whiff rate, and that’d be valuable, but if they make contact, look out.
Dan Szymborski has a post today at Fangraphs about the Reds’ playoff chances tanking due to their fast start. (For the record, the M’s chances have improved by 10 percentage points over their nugatory odds at the end of spring training, per Fangraphs.) That’s neither here nor there, of course, but Dan has a table in the post showing that the Reds team plate discipline, measured by the difference between their rate of swings at pitches IN the zone and pitches OUT of the zone has gotten quite a bit worse. But in that table, we find the Mariners are the offense that’s had the largest improvement in that same measure. 710am’s Lydia Cruz made the related point in this tweet, that several M’s have seen dramatic improvements in their out-of-zone swing rates; guys like Ryon Healy, Domingo Santana, and Dee Gordon in particular look like different/better hitters this year.
I’ll be up at Tacoma’s home opener, so won’t be able to track the dinger parade in this one. Go M’s.
1: Smith, CF
2: Santana, LF
3: Bruce, RF
4: Encarnacion, 1B
5: Vogelbach, DH
6: Healy, 3B
7: Narvaez, C
8: Moore, SS
9: Gordon, 2B
SP: Gonzales
Another Chris Sale start, another poor result and another disappointing average velo. The Sox lost in Toronto, with Sale averaging 92mph. I know many Boston fans shrugged off his poor start in Seattle, noting he’d had low velocities in some starts (particularly in April) before, but this is now a worrying trend. Sad for baseball.
Speaking of sad, we M’s fans often recall with rueful laughs the time in 2008 when the Mariners started long-time utility IF Miguel Cairo at *1B.* He had a lifetime SLG% of .361, and it was just .330 in that year. In that Boston/Toronto game, the Jays may have beaten it. Today, the Jays started newly-acquired IF/OF Alen Hanson, late of the Giants, and a one-time Pirates prospect at 1B. Hanson’s perhaps got a touch more pop, but he also has a career .268 OBP. He was once a glove-first SS prospect, and while he’s more of a 2B now, this is not at all what you want at 1B. I suppose this is what happens when the M’s corner the market on 1Bs.
The Rainiers host the El Paso Chihuahuas tonight in the home opener at Cheney Stadium. Sounds like Erik Swanson will get the start for the Rainiers.
Arkansas edged NW Arkansas 2-1 with a run in the 9th, making a winner of Wyatt Mills, who K’d all 4 batters he faced. Makes it easier to shrug off his ugly first appearance. Kyle Lewis HR’d for Arkansas as well. Justin Dunn takes the hill for the Travelers today.
Modesto dropped a Cal League pitcher’s duel 3-1 at Inland Empire last night. Luis Liberato hit another 2B to maintain his hot start. Ray Kerr took the loss, but the bullpen was excellent in keeping IE from adding on. No word on the Nuts’ starter tonight.
West Virginia lost to Lexington 6-1, as the Legends gave OF prospect Jarred Kelenic a golden sombrero. Julio Rodriguez had two hits and an amazing catch in CF, though. Tonight sees Logan Gilbert make his second start of the year. The M’s first-round pick last year, Gilbert pitched 4 scoreless in the first game of the year in 2019.
Game 12, Mariners vs. Royals, on The King’s Day
Felix vs. Homer Bailey, 5:15pm
A happy and fruitful Felix day to you and yours. Not just any Felix day, mind you – a *Royal* Felix day, as this is the anniversary of the King’s blessed birth. And how better to celebrate but to put a group of pretenders (with the gall to call themselves “Royals” in his presence) to the sword. Spare no one, King Felix.
I recently had cause to go back and think about Felix’s rise, and the Spring of 2005, when the teenage phenom graced Cheney Stadium. He wasn’t perfect, but he was close enough. It was cool to see him matched up against some of the best prospects in the game at the time, all of whom had several years on him. I listened intently to a road game in which Felix started against another young starter named Matt Cain, who’d been drafted out of HS and was “only” a year and half older than the young King. Ian Kinsler was in the PCL that year, along with Prince Fielder, the Angels group of Casey Kotchman, Jeff Mathis, and Dallas McPherson. Obviously, not all of them had the kind of impact we though at the time, but Felix reached the highest highs a player who’s never played a postseason game can reach.
Homer Bailey was just a touch behind that group. Picked #7 overall in 2004, the Texas HS phenom spent that 2005 season in a frustrating season in the Midwest League. He had a K/9 of 10.85 back in a season in which K/9 was a good 2/3 of pitcher evaluation for us stat-savvy bloggers AND when a starter’s K/9 of 10.85 was well-nigh unthinkable (except for Felix, you know, who had a K/9 of over 11 in the Cal League the year before, and was over 10 in AAA at 19). Unfortunately, he gave up far too many runs for someone with that kind of dominance, and though despite being a consensus top pitching prospect, it took him until 2007 to debut with Cincinnati, and it wasn’t until 2012 that he really established himself as a viable MLB pitcher. In that 2012 campaign, he finished strong, winning a 1-0 no hitter in September (a month after a certain someone spun a 1-0 perfecto for Seattle). The Reds made the playoffs and Bailey tossed 7 phenomenal innings at the Giants, giving up just 1 run and striking out 10 against a single walk. It wasn’t enough, as the Giants Ryan Vogelsong and a bunch of relievers sent the game to extras tied at 1, until the Giants won it in the 10th.
He had an even better 2013 season, but just as it looked like Bailey’d found it, he lost it again. Injuries struck in 2014, costing him a portion of that season and nearly all of 2015-16. He returned in 2017, but was a shell of his former self, posting an ERA over 6 in 18 starts. From there, he somehow got worse, going 1-14 last year, again with an ERA north of 6.
I’m not here to bury Mr. Bailey. He’s stuck it out despite years and years of struggle, and while he’s never come close to the magic of late-2012, he’s still around. He pitched perfectly acceptably in his first start this year, and it came on a day in which Corey Kluber struggled. I don’t think he’s fixed himself in KC, but I can imagine it’s nice to get out of Cincinnati and the weight of expectations built up over years. I don’t think it’d make him feel any better, but if there’s anyone in the game who can kind of relate, it’s probably Felix.
Bailey doesn’t have the velo he had at his peak, but he’s surprisingly close, with a four-seam average over 93. It has uninteresting movement, but he supplements it with three breaking/offspeed pitches: a curve, slider, and an intriguing splitter that he used a lot in his first start this year. That could help, as Bailey’s been undone by the longball in recent years, as his fastballs (he has a sinker, too) have been preyed upon voraciously by opposing hitters. The breaking stuff hasn’t been a lot better, but he needs something to keep the pressure off of his fastball. One thing that might help would be to avoid hitters’ counts, as he’s struggled with control (leading to more such counts), and with what to do once in them: batters slugged .409 off of him in all counts that ran through an 0-1 count. Not great, but not awful. But if he started 1-0, then batters slugged *.730* against him the rest of the PA. That’s… that’s a problem. The kind of problem this dinger-happy M’s line-up LOVES.
Facing a problem of how to keep Dan Vogelbach’s bat in the line-up, the M’s have decided to chase dingers against a pitcher who’s given up plenty and stick all of their 1B/DH types in the line-up at the same time. This comes at a defensive cost, as the line-up now lacks Mallex Smith in CF and presses Dylan Moore in at SS with Tim Beckham ailing. But ohhhh, the dinger potential is strong here. KC is a pitcher’s park, but that will make it all the more impressive when the Dingermen hit 3 tonight.
1: Haniger, CF
2: Santana, LF
3: Bruce, RF
4: Encarnacion, 1B
5: Vogelbach, DH
6: Healy, 3B
7: Narvaez, C
8: Moore, SS
9: Gordon, 2B
SP: FELIX
Tacoma lost 10-3 yesterday as Justus Sheffield’s org debut was…not so good. He went 4 2/3, giving up 4 earned on 5 walks and just 1 punchout. Whatever, come back next time and do better. The R’s played an early one today and lost a heartbreaker 11-10, blowing a 7-3 early lead. The R’s scored 7 in the 4th, but Ryan Garton gave up 5 runs on 3 dingers in 1 1/3 IP in relief, and RJ Alaniz gave up 2 in the 10th. Shawn Armstrong rehabbed with a single inning of really good relief, so he stood out like a sore thumb today.
Arkansas finally lost, dropping a 3-2 game to Tulsa. Today, Arkansas faces the breakaway region of Northwest Arkansas and try to preserve their union behind SP Darren McCaughan.
Modesto was down 9-0 to Lancaster following a 9-run 2nd, but chipped back and finally won it, 10-9. Luis Liberato hit his 3rd HR, and Joe Rizzo hit his 3rd double. The pen went 7 1/3 scoreless, which is far more impressive. The 4-0 Nuts head to Inland Empire tonight, with Ray Kerr on the mound.
West Virginia lost a close one, 5-4, in 10 innings, but Julio Rodriguez doubled twice, and Jarred Kelenic hit one of his own. They’re facing Lexington today, and are struggling against Royals prospect Jonathan Bowlan.
Game 11, Mariners at White Sox
Wade LeBlanc vs. Ivan Nova, 11:10am
It may not shock anyone who’s watched more than one Mariner game this year, but Rob Arthur’s found some solid evidence that the baseball “juiced” again, meaning that the drag coefficient is lower than it was on average in 2018. It’s essentially the 2017 ball, the one that was used in the year that baseball set records for single-season HRs…by a mile.
It always felt both unfair and somehow fitting that the M’s assembled a team around fly ball defense especially in 2016 to try and wring more out of their pitching staff by targeting team-wide BABIP JUST as the ball started flying further than ever. Now that they stopped caring about defense (and seriously guys, you could try caring at least a tiny bit) and just getting older or more one-dimensional sluggers, they accidentally catch another wave of drag-less superballs and race out to a fast start. It’s just perfectly Mariners: from one point of view, it’s evidence that luck really does all even out. It was bad in one year, good in another – even steven, right? Well, no, if we apply an RE24 or WPA lens to this, it’s kind of a disaster. The years in which the M’s were focused on competing for a playoff spot, their luck spoils whatever chance they had (and let’s be clear: better BABIP luck or fewer HRs-allowed wouldn’t allow them to catch the 2017/18 Astros) and now that their luck’s turned around, it’s in a step-back season that might see several solid performers flipped for prospects.
That’s not to say any of this fast start is worthless. The M’s have been compelling to watch, even as their bullpen continues to take on water and even as their defense should come with Yakety Sax playing in the background. The newcomers have blossomed beyond even the most optimistic expectations; Jay Bruce hit 9 HRs last year in over 350 PAs. He’s at 5 now in just 45. That could help the M’s get something for him at the deadline, or hang onto him for the year and enjoy the enjoyment – either is better than the expectations that the M’s would simply be babysitting him until he was DFAd or his contract expired. But even better, it’s starting to provide some evidence that the shake-up in player development and coaching may be doing something. No, half the line-up won’t maintain ISOs over .400, no matter how low the drag coefficient gets. But if guys like Ryon Healy and Tim Beckham post career-best ISOs without sacrificing plate discipline? Well, that starts to look interesting.
Today, the M’s face ex-Yankee and Pirates righty Ivan Nova. Nova had a brief renaissance, as so many pitchers do, under the tutelage of Ray Searage in Pittsburgh, by cutting his walk rate significantly. He’s still a sinker/slider-ish curve guy who tries to get grounders instead of striking people out, but the whole skillset works much better when he keeps his walk rate at 5% or lower. He’s mixed back in some four-seam fastballs, and this year he’s throwing more of a slider that had been mothballed for several years. It’s an interesting arsenal; the sinker looks OK with solid armside run, but only comes in at 90-91. The slider has almost perfect sidespin, so it doesn’t sink compared to his sinker at all – it just has different velo and horizontal movement. The curve’s getting a bit more depth, though it had at least as much back in his Yankee days…back when he was getting destroyed by the AL.
1: Smith, CF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Santana, LF
4: Encarnacion, 1B
5: Narvaez, C
6: Beckham, SS
7: Vogelbach, DH
8: Healy, 3B
9: Gordon, 2B
SP: LeBlanc
The big story in the minors today is Justus Sheffield’s org debut, which’ll kick off around 1:05pm today in Sacto. Fire up MiLB.tv, M’s fans. The R’s lost last night 11-5.
Julio Rodriguez went 2-4 with a walk, and Jerred Kelenic walked three times in WV’s 6-5 win yesterday. Arkansas won 8-5 to take three straight from Tulsa, as Kyle Lewis went 2-3 with 2 BBs, and Jordan Cowan hit his first HR of the year. Modesto won 3-2 in 10 innings, as closer Sam Delaplane shook off a game-tying 9th inning HR to win it with 2 innings of relief in which he struck out 6.
Anthony Misievicz starts for Arkansas, Nick Wells for Modesto, and Oliver Jaskie for West Viriginia.
Game 10, Mariners at White Sox
Mike Leake vs. Lucas Giolito, 11:10am
The M’s now have had two different players make three errors in an inning on the young season. Last year, Jerry Dipoto talked a lot about building an offense that looked more like a 1970s style low-strikeout-high-ball-in-play group and less like a three-true-outcomes modern group.With the rebuild on, their offense has now moved into the 21st century and slugs tons of dingers even if they whiff more than they did last year. All in all, the change has been a positive one, at least early on. But the offense wasn’t the only group trying to turn back the clock to the 80s or so. The pitching staff is now an extremely anachronistic group, with starters throwing slower than other clubs and, through the early going, pitching to contact like no other team in the game. They’ve got the highest percentage of balls in play in the league. That…that seems counterproductive when your defense looks like this group does. But: dingers.
Lucas Giolito was one of the best high school pitching prospects ever coming out of Harvard-Westlake HS, and by 2014-15 he was carving through the minors with high K% low walk rates and dominating with mid 90s velo and a big curve. Injuries and the high minors presented bigger challenges, and suddenly his K% kept dropping and his walk rate increased, the product of rapidly declining velocity and command. He was still an uber-prospect, so he came over from the Nats org with Reynaldo Lopez for Adam Eaton, and the rebuilding White Sox sent him into their rotation. The results have been…not good. Giolito has a career K/9 of 6.49 and a BB/9 of 4.20. That’s borderline unplayable, but the HR/9 of 1.55 just seems like insult to perhaps-undiagnosed-injury. His velocity has dropped from 98 in HS to 95-96 in the Nats org to 92 or so in the first half of last year.
He had a great high-rising over-the-top fastball, but batters got used to it and hit it hard, especially when it came in at 92. With the lower velo, his vertical rise dropped and so the Sox seem to have made a decision to work in a sinker to replace the declining four-seamer. It didn’t help too much, and I and many other observers were pretty much ready to write him off as an unfortunate story of injuries and lack of stuff getting in the way of what had been a meteoric rise. But something started happening down the stretch. Some of that velocity started to creep back, and his effective spin starting improving. He’d occasionally switch back to the four-seamer as his primary FB. These were tentative steps, and after an encouraging August, he collapsed in September, but it was *something* to look for in 2019 on a team that would probably be bad yet again.
In his first start, he didn’t throw the sinker once, going with a a rejuvenated four-seamer with over 11″ of rise. It averaged 94mph, and he touched 95-96. He struck out 8 and walked just 1 in 6 2/3 IP. It was about as encouraging as it could be, but it was just one game. This’ll be an interesting one; Giolito should still be HR-prone with a rising FB and a tiny home park. Hopefully, the M’s make him work and get into some hitters’ counts. They’ll be much more of a challenge than the Royals were, but it’ll be interesting to see if Giolito’s on his way to a rebound season.
1: Smith, CF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Santana, LF
4: Bruce, 1B
5: Encarnacion, DH
6: Beckham, SS
7: Healy, 3B
8: Murphy, C
9: Moore, 2B
SP: Leake
Dee Gordon drew walks in BOTH of his PAs yesterday, but tweaked his groin diving back on a pick-off attempt. Guess he’ll get the day off to let it heal.
The Rainiers came back to beat Sacramento 6-5 on a go-ahead HR from Joey Curletta last night. Ex-White Sox prospect Tyler Danish takes the hill for Tacoma in Sacramento tonight.
Arkansas beat up on Tulsa, winning 9-4 behind LHP Ricardo Sanchez’s 5 scoreless IP with 5 Ks and no walks, and 4 HRs by the offense. Dom Thompson-Williams hit two of those. Only blemish was a disastrous 2/3 IP from Wyatt Mills, the Gonzaga product, who’s looked off after dominating in the Cal League last year. Newcomer Zac Grotz, late of the Mets org (and drafted by Houston), gets the start today.
Modesto moved to 2-0 with another classic Cal League game, winning 11-8 in 11 innings in Lancaster. Luis Liberato hit his 2nd HR in as many nights. 2017 draft pick Austin Hutchison starts for the Nuts today.
West Virginia dropped a pitcher’s duel, 3-2, last night. Kelenic and Rodriguez each had a single, and Brent Honeyman hit a 2R HR for the Power, but the Greenville drive leveled things up and then walked it off in the 9th. Today, Ryne Inman gets the start. The 2015 draft pick had an up and down year for Clinton last year; we’ll see how he takes to the Sally league.
Game 9, Mariners vs. White Sox – On the Road
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Reynaldo Lopez, 11:10am
The M’s play their first road game of the year, and it coincides with the White Sox’ home opener.
Yusei Kikuchi’s been solid over two starts, yielding just a single walk in nearly 11 IP. Compared to his projections (which, admittedly, didn’t have a lot to go on), he’s pitching to contact a lot more – they’ve been low on the strikeouts, and really high on walk rate. Of course, Kikuchi has company in that regard: the M’s as a team are among MLB’s laggards in strikeouts. Only the Angels trail the M’s K/9, and only the Angels and Rangers trail in K% (what’s up with the AL West?). The M’s have the lowest average sinker and cutter velocities, and are below average in most of the other pitch types, but Kikuchi’s doing what he can do bring the average fastball velo up.
Reynaldo Lopez was one of the big prospects coming to the south side from the Nats in the big Adam Eaton deal a few years ago. By fWAR, he was the best player on the White Sox last year, though that’s clearly a low bar. He pairs well above average velocity with a low BABIP thanks to a sky-high fly ball rate, but while he posted a sub-4 ERA, there are red flags throughout the profile. For one, his control isn’t great; his walk rate of 9.4% was too high to balance a merely average K rate, and he’s gotten off to a slow start this year with 4 walks and a plunked batsman in 4 IP. Second, batters seem to get a good look at his pitches, because he posts way, way below average rates on out-of-zone swings and thus on contact rates. He’s thus something of the inverse of Freddy Peralta where average stuff plays up due to some deception. Lopez is perhaps the least deceptive starter out there, and I for one applaud his values of honesty and forthrightness.
The M’s still boast baseball’s best offense by Fangraphs’ wRC+, though it’s harder to see why. Their slash line of .264/.359/.520 is amazing, good for a .377 wOBA, but it’s pretty far from the Dodgers line of .289/.388/.557. But the M’s get a 162 wRC+ while the Dodgers make do with a 146. You see this up and down the list. My favorite example is that the Astros (.235/.304/.363) and Padres (.237/.299/.384) have identical wOBAs of .298, but this works out to a wRC+ of 103 for Houston, but just 82 for San Diego. What’s going on here? I thought park factors were wreaking havoc with the numbers, but I don’t think that’s it. Instead, it looks like the league averages are messing things up (wRC+ compares a team’s wOBA to league average). At the moment, the AL’s average wOBA is a 2014-esque .301, while the NL’s is at .324, where it was in 2009 or 2005. This is all small-sample noise, and the NL will cool down and the AL will heat up, but for now, the slow starts in Houston/Cleveland/Minnesota/Anaheim are pulling the average down and thus messing with the based-on-league-average stats like wRC+.
Line-up!
1: Smith, CF
2: Haniger, RF
3: Santana, LF
4: Bruce, 1B
5: Beckham, SS
6: Narvaez, C
7: Healy, 3B
8: Vogelbach, DH
9: Gordon, 2B
SP: Kikuchi
For the first time this year, we’ve got minor league box scores to explore. Yesterday’s opening day for the full-season minors was a good one for the Mariners, as they boasted several solid pitching performances and a number of wins.
The West Viriginia Power (A-ball, Sally League) won their first game as an M’s affiliate 1-0 in 10 innings. As you might imagine, the pitchers were the stars, with Logan Gilbert going 4 scoreless with 5 Ks, and Devin Sweet getting the win by pitching the last 3 IP with 3Ks. Jarred Kelenic batted 2nd and went 0-3 but with 2 walks, while Julio Rodriguez went 2-4 with a 2B. I’m still just stunned that the M’s don’t have an affiliate in the Midwest League, where they’ve had their single-A affiliate since at least the early 90s. Prospects from A-Rod to David Ortiz to Felix to Kyle Seager to Braden Bishop all came up through the pitcher-friendly league. Today, 2017 draft pick Clay Chandler gets the start for West Virginia; the righty was solid in the Clinton rotation last year.
In the High-A California League (and I’d be lost if the M’s moved their affiliation to the Carolina League like many want them to), Modesto held off the Lancaster Jet Hawks 7-4. Ljay Newsome K’d 9 in 5 innings with 3 R (2 earned) allowed thanks to two dingers. Reliever Sam Delaplane used a funky delivery/deception to strike out 100 in 59 2/3 IP in the Midwest league last year, and he started where he left off last year by striking out 3 in 2 scoreless IP. C Cal Raleigh homered and went 2-5, and Luis Liberato went 2-3 with a walk and a dinger of his own. OF Anthony Jimenez went 3-5 with a 3B. Lefty Ian McKinney, recently released by the Cardinals org, and a guy with some AA experience, starts for the Nuts in today’s game.
Arkansas rallied late to beat the Tulsa Drillers 6-4, scoring 2 in the 8th and another 2 in the 9th. Dodger pitching prospect Dustin May started and befuddled the Travelers for 5 IP, yielding just 2 hits, no runs, 1 walk, and striking out 9. The bullpen was more pliant, though, and the Travs took advantage. Evan White went 2-4 with a walk, and Kyle Lewis was 1-4 with a double. Jake Fraley went 2-5 with a triple. Justin Dunn was effective in his first start in the org, going 5 IP and giving up 1 R on 5H and 1BB, with 7 Ks. Delightfully-named minor league free agent Parker Markel ended up pitching the last inning with 2 Ks. The former Rays farmhand pitched in AAA quite a bit over the years, but headed off to Independent League ball last year after not pitching in 2017. Former Braves farmhand Ricardo Sanchez was DFA’d by Atlanta last fall, and he’s now in Arkansas’ rotation. The 5’11” lefty is on the M’s 40-man roster.
Tacoma had the Sacramento RiverCats beat, but a late rally tied the game and the Cats walked it off in the 11th. Starter Erik Swanson was very good, holding the RiverCats scoreless over 5 IP on 6 H, no walks and *8* Ks. The 9th-inning rally came off of Nick Rumbelow, but the big 2-run 2B that tied it was a fly ball that frankly should’ve been caught by new LF Eric Young Jr. Young began the game by losing a pop fly in the lights that went for another 2B, so it was something of a rough first game for him, though he went 1-3 with 2 BBs (Joey Curletta had the same line). Shed Long and Braden Bishop both went 2-5, and David Freitas was 2-3 with a BB. JP Crawford was 0-4. Tommy Milone will start tonight’s game against Giants prospect Tyler Beede.
PCL Preview and Opening Day for the 2019 Tacoma Rainiers
It’s opening day in the Minor Leagues today, so fire up MiLB.tv and watch what we hope is the next generation of M’s stars. JY’s previews for each of the affiliates are so, so good that I don’t have to do as much for a minor league preview, but as I usually say: I love each M’s affiliate, and sure, West Virginia and Arkansas will get the bulk of the prospect-hound eyeballs, but I love the Rainiers most of all. I’m from Tacoma, and loved going to games when I lived there, and it’s an affiliate that marries both a handy location for many M’s fans in the northwest with high-level/close-to-the-majors baseball. As such, I write a post like this that’s both a look at the R’s season and also a guide to which games you may want to come down and catch if you’re interested in both M’s and other teams’ big prospects.
Last year’s post was kind of angry, as it’d been years since Tacoma had seen real, honest-to-goodness prospects, especially if you don’t count Mike Zunino being sent down repeatedly to work on his swing. Instead, 2018 was the apotheosis in the M’s annoying-but-possibly-necessary process of managing the roster nearly entirely through minor league free agents. The system had been so hollowed out by some bad drafts and a raft of trades that the M’s really didn’t have enough players, and that meant that the team cycled through org players at an astounding rate. 2017 set records for pitcher usage, and while it was a bit better last year, the bulk of the roster’s no longer in the org.
Happily, things are quite a bit different in 2019. While the players are new, this isn’t a new crop of MiLB veterans and independent league performers who’ll be gone in months. Instead, it’s an intriguing club built of actual, honest to goodness prospects, the return for the M’s busy offseason step-back. We haven’t seen a team like this in Tacoma since 2013 or so, and it’s great for the Rainiers and M’s fans. The group is headlined by the main trade return in two of the M’s hot stove blockbusters, Justus Sheffield (acquired for James Paxton) and JP Crawford (acquired for Jean Segura). Shed Long, Erik Swanson, and Joey Curletta round out the key players of interest, and it’ll be fun seeing how some of these players – who have experience in the International League – adjust to the PCL. Last year, there were exactly zero position players on the M’s 40-man roster on opening day. This year, there are five. It’s pretty much a 180 degree turn from how the club looked last year.
Tonight, the R’s kick off their season in Sacramento with a 7:05 start against the RiverCats, a Giants affiliate who’ll come to town later in the month. Tonight’s game pits Erik Swanson, a solid righty also acquired in the Paxton deal – and a good bet to be the first up if the M’s need rotation help – against Sacto lefty Andrew Suarez, who pitched in the Giants rotation last year. With some of SF’s off-season moves, they had a roster crunch which led to Chris Stratton moving to the Angels and Suarez getting optioned back down. Ex-Athletics/Brewers catcher and Thurston county resident Stephen Vogt will do the catching along with Giants prospect Aramis Garcia, a C with some power but who struggled at the plate in the minors last year (but did make his MLB debut). The top prospect on the team’s another pitcher, righty Shaun Anderson; we’ll probably see him at some point in the series, or when they head to Tacoma beginning on the 24th.
Tacoma’s home schedule begins next week, on Tuesday the 9th with a 6:05 start against the El Paso Chihuahuas. The Padres have been a loaded system for a little while, and this year’s no different. They’ll be in Tacoma for a three-game set, and we should probably see SP prospect Logan Allen, who’s just shy of 22 and coming off a brilliant 2018 campaign split between Hi-A and AA. Sure, Chris Paddack and Fernando Tatis, Jr. started in San Diego, but the Pads’ #3 prospect Luis Urias will play SS/2B, and slugging Canuck Josh Naylor (who seemed to hit a bajillion dingers against M’s affiliates last year) will be at 1B or an OF corner. Former 1st rounder and another noted prospect Cal Quantrill’s also in the rotation, and finally free of innings limits and the like after his post-draft TJ surgery.
The first big weekend series at Cheney sees the Albuquerque Isotopes visit for 4 games starting Friday the 12th of April. The Rockies affiliate is perhaps the 2nd-most prospect-laden group in the league behind Las Vegas (who are less of a sure thing), headlined by Rockies #1 prospect and somewhere around #20 prospect in the game, SS Brendan Rodgers. A SS with plus power, he put up eye-popping numbers in the Cal League, but took a slight step back last season. He’s still great, but there are more questions now, particularly on his hit tool; all of that sounds a bit like JP Crawford. They’re very, very different players, of course, but both may have something to prove in 2019. The Isotopes boast a few of the Rockies top pitchers like Jeff Hoffman, who’s been working at Driveline after some up-and-down seasons following his own TJ rehab. There’s former top prospect Ryan Castellani who’s been all over the map results and stuff wise in the past few years. Closer Yency Almonte figures to see time with the big club this year, and CF Yonathan Daza is in the Rockies’ top 10 list.
After Sacramento’s visit closes out the April home schedule, Albuquerque returns for the first weekend of May. They’ll be followed by the Reno Aces, beginning on Tuesday the 7th. They were supposed to be headlined by top prospect Jon Duplantier, a huge SP with solid velo from the right side, but the D-Backs called him up this week. Instead, we’ll settle for their #2 overall prospect, Taylor Widener, another RH SP. Widener’s got a mid-90s fastball and a good slider, and he used them to carve up AA hitters last year. Also pitching for the Isotopes are Taylor Clarke, Jimmy Sherfy, and ex-Red Sox lefty Robby Scott. Of note is former Rainiers/Mariners lefty Anthony Vasquez, who’s joined by ex-R’s OFs Andrew Aplin and Abraham Almonte.
On May 22nd, Tacoma welcomes the Nationals’ affiliate (wait, what?), the Fresno Grizzlies. This club had been an Astros affiliate for a few years, and then the Giants affiliate for a while before that; it’s going to take me a long, long time to associate them with the Nats, who haven’t had a PCL affiliate in…maybe ever? SS Carter Kieboom, the Nats #2 prospect, will play for the Grizz, but that’s pretty much it for big prospects. They DO have three pitchers named Austin/Austen, and Austin Voth played for UW.
In June, the Memphis Redbirds make their once-every-two-year visit to the Northwest. The Cardinals affiliate boasts St. Louis’ #4 prospect in RHP Ryan Helsley, and he’ll throw to #5 prospect, C Andrew Knizner. Former M’s prospect Seth Elledge starts in AA, but may be up with Memphis by this time. Their IF boasts Tacoma-born, strikeout-avoiding 2B Max Schrock, who’d been fascinating to watch as he moved up the line first with the Nats and then in the Oakland org, but he really struggled in the PCL last year. Also on the club are back-end-of-the-top-30 guys like 3B Evan Mendoza and P Daniel Poncedeleon.
As soon as Memphis leaves, the R’s play host to Nashville. The 4-game series begins on the 7th (a Friday), and lets us get a look at the Rangers close-to-the-majors talent. Yes, this had been an A’s affiliate for a few years, but the Rangers shockingly left Round Rock. The Sounds are led by 2B Eli White, long-time Rays prospect Taylor Guerrieri (who once boasted one of the minors best changeups) and hard-throwing lefty starter Taylor Hearn. Willie Calhoun, the position-challenged hitting savant starts in AAA after failing to, uh, hit for the Rangers last year. Lower-tier prospect Jose Trevino will catch along with Jett Bandy, the former big leaguer who’s hit well in the PCL in the past.
El Paso returns beginning June 20th, and then – shockingly late in the year for it – the M’s finally get to see divisional rivals Salt Lake beginning Saturday, June 29th. The Bees remain an Angels affiliate, which they’ve been for a long while now. The Angels systems has been building for a while now, and while consensus top prospect Jo Adell is a ways away, top pitcher Griffin Canning will try to figure out how to deal with the PCL; he’ll probably be thrilled to be in Tacoma and away from his offense-addled home park. Canning struggled in Salt Lake last year, but we’ll see if he’s learned something from the experience. 1B Matt Thaiss is a converted catcher who may actually hit enough to play first. His power output isn’t great, but he’s a decent all-around hitter. At 2B is former M’s prospect Luis Rengifo who broke out in a big way in 2018, his first in the Angels org. He dominated hi-A and ended up finishing the year in AAA. He drew as many walks as he had strikeouts, and hit for average in three leagues.
The AAA All-Star game takes up the second week of July, but when it ends, the Rainiers are home to host Reno beginning July 11th. On the 15th of the month, the renamed Las Vegas Aviators come to town. Vegas is now an A’s affiliate, so we’ll get a look at a solid system headlined by dominating SP Jesus Luzardo (who was born in Peru, but was drafted out of Marjorie Stoneman-Douglas HS in Florida). Frankly, I don’t expect he’ll be with the team in July, but I suppose you never know. Mid-July is right around the time that former top pitching prospect AJ Puk might return to game action following TJ surgery right before opening day last year. The rest of the Aviators rotation is basically the A’s rotation of a year or two ago, with Andrew Triggs, Paul Blackburn (another ex-M’s prospect), and Daniel Mengden. This figures to be a tough club in the PCL. In addition to all of the pitching, they have A’s #3 prospect Sean Murphy catching, #7 prospect Jorge Mateo at 3B, and IF Franklin Barreto. This is pretty much the most loaded team in the league, and while there’ll be plenty of turnover by July, they’ll likely get restocked with guys like SP Grant Holmes or maybe SP James Kaprelian, SS Kevin Merrell.
We close out July with a visit from the Omaha StormChasers, who have an experienced group of prospects, or maybe ex-prospects with something to prove. The big name is Bubba Starling, the local kid the Royals took in the first round way back in 2011, buying him out of a football scholarship. It’s been…slow going for the freakishly athletic CF, but he’s back in Omaha on a minor league deal. He lost a lot of time due to injuries, but I’m rooting for him. He’ll be joined by fireballing enigma Josh Staumont who struggled with control, but took to a relief role quite well in 2018. SS Nicky Lopez is still a rising/traditional prospect, and he’ll man the left side with 3B prospect Kelvin Gutierrez. They’ve also got OF Brett Phillips, who scuffled in the majors with Milwaukee and KC last year, but was a great pure hitter in the minors.
On Friday, the 2nd of August, the Iowa Cubs come to town. The club is nowhere near as loaded as the old days with Kris Bryant and Javy Baez, but there are some back-of-the-top-30 guys on the IF like SS Zack Short and 2B Trent Giambrone. There are a few minor prospects among the pitchers, but comeback story Tim Collins, the 5’7″ hurler for the Royals for a few years, is a bigger name. James Norwood and Dillon Maples are solid pitchers; both excelled for Iowa last year, the former in relief, and the latter in the rotation. By this time, the club will likely promote a few more of their top pitching prospects from AA, guys like Michael Rucker and Thomas Hatch, and we could see SS prospect Nico Hoerner.
Fresno, Salt Lake and Vegas close out the home schedule, with the final games on the first two days of September. Go catch a game or a series in Tacoma; it’s a great place to watch baseball, and the league’s great thanks to spectacular variation in run environment from park to park and division to division.
Tonight’s line-up:
1: Braden Bishop, CF
2: Eric Young, JR. LF
3: JP Crawford, SS
4: Jose Lobaton, C
5: Joey Curletta, 1B
6: Shed Long, 2B
7: David Freitas, DH
8: Kris Negron, 3B
9: Tito Polo, RF
SP: Erik Swanson