Schuerholz stepping down in Atlanta
(links everywhere)
He’s going to become team president (which here, is Chuck Armstrong). While the Braves don’t have a huge number of World Series rings, I wanted to take a second to talk about the scope of his achievement.
I too often gloss over how amazingly hard it is to be a GM. Everyone in every front office works crazy hours for pretty bad pay considering what they do. Being competitive requires many factors out of a GM’s control to come together, and as much as I rag on teams for not exploiting every advantage, there aren’t enough hours to do it, and not enough people to help.
It doesn’t matter if you’re one of the smartest baseball minds in the world, you’ve got to better than the other 29 guys, trade after trade, season after season, even if you’ve got money to work with. Getting to .500 consistently is hard, and that gets lost in transaction analysis of why they picked up one guy on the waivers instead of my favorite guy, or they didn’t ask after someone who later got traded. If .500 was easy, the incompetent clubs would do better and we’d see team records much closer together. Teams like the Royals haven’t struggled for so long because they’re not working at it, or even because they don’t have talented people working for them. We look at teams who experience success with an eye towards whether they’re peaking, and search for signs that they’ll soon be brought to earth, and with good reason: fielding a competitive team, especially one that can get into the playoffs, can cost so much in building it that it can’t be kept up for long.
With that in mind, I look at the long record of success in Atlanta with all kinds of teams, rebuilding constantly, overcoming injuries and issues, always making progress, and I’m a little awed. Few baseball people have been had such success for so long. I don’t know who the Braves might replace him with, but really, there’s no replacing him. Even from the other league, I’m sorry to hear that the game’s going to be a little less competitive
These playoffs suck
This is the worst playoff schedule ever, another great example of how MLB is willing to sacrifice fairness and the long-term interests of the game in order to make a quick buck and satisfy their broadcast partners.
Simply, the more crazy rest days there are in and between series, the more thin teams, particularly thin teams with one or two ace pitchers, are rewarded, and the more they make the playoffs into a different competition than the regular season.
For example: if you can put together a team with a good bunch of starting position players (however you want: offense, defense, it doesn’t matter here) but hampered by a horrible bench, where the starting rotation goes great-great-suck-suck-suck and the bullpen has one or two lights-out pitchers, you might struggle to win 90 games in a season. A better-balanced team — a better team — with deeper pitching and quality reserves — might win far more games than you over a season.
In this playoff format, though, it doesn’t matter: they can ride those two starters, those two relievers all series long, because with all the rest days they don’t need a deep staff. Reserves aren’t as important in a playoff series anyway, but with that many rest days they’re almost entirely irrelevant. The roster construction that made for a consistent, successful team are in some ways opposed to those that make a team that can thrive in this crazy scheduling.
Baseball, boredom, baseball, a rhythm that forms a paradise for the 1997 Marlins — this isn’t what I want out of the playoffs.
Ryan leaves Twins, no effect on Mariners
Scheduling Note: Dave with Groz moves up a day, and can be heard this afternoon at 2:35 pm on KJR.
Terry Ryan resigns as GM of Twins. ESPN’s write-up here.
I’ve heard him mentioned as a possible Bavasi replacement, but Bavasi’s not going anywhere (unless they keep losing like this and the A’s catch them, maybe). So it doesn’t really matter to us.
The short version: the Twins under Ryan did an amazing job developing players their way, often evaluating them on the basis of criteria I totally disagree with (David Ortiz, for instance, run out of the org for not being their kind of player), did some things badly, but given the constraints they worked under, have to be acknowledged as a tremendous sustained success.
Atlanta as an example of youth over experience
Atlanta’s long run of contention offers one of the best examples of continuous team building in modern baseball. While fielding contending teams (for purposes of this post, 1991-2005, when they won or placed second in their division every year), they also made choices to work young players they thought were ready into the lineup and pitching staff, sometimes letting veterans go and frequently breaking spring training with one or more rookies set to take starting jobs.
As just one indicator, I offer this: Braves players who placed in Rookie of the Year voting from 1991-2005.
Year, Name (Rank)
1991: Brian Hunter (4), Mike Stanton (8)
1992: Mark Wohlers (7)
1993: Greg McMichael (2)
1994: Ryan Klesko (3), Javy Lopez (10)
1995: Chipper Jones (2)
1996: Jermaine Dye (6)
1997: Andruw Jones (5)
1998: Kerry Ligtenberg (4)
1999: Kevin McGlinchy (6) (this one’s kind of a joke, though, he got 1 point)
2000: Rafael Furcal (1)
2001: no one
2002: Damian Moss (5)
2003: no one
2004: no one
2005: Jeff Francoeur (3)
Even taking out the relievers, that’s an astonishing run. Even arguing that the Rookie of the Year awards aren’t a particularly good indicator of talent, you can look at that list and see the names, and many of them provide examples of cases where they made a choice of talent over experience.
For instance, in 1996, their center fielder was Marquis Grissom, 29. Andruw Jones only played in 12 games, and didn’t hit. Then they had Kenny Lofton take the bulk of playing time in center in 1997 while they managed to get Jones in a 153 games between center and right (still didn’t hit much, played stellar defense) and that was the start of his career.
In the same year, they were starting to work Kevin Millwood in, and gave him a rotation slot in 1998 (and John Rocker debuted in the bullpen!). You can pretty much pick any year in that stretch, look for some young players age-wise, and hey – it’s Marcus Giles, who played about half time for two years and then in his first full season replaced veteran Keith Lockhart and went on to finish 18th in MVP voting and went to the All Star Game.
It’s not easy to run a youth movement while contending, and not everyone has a GM as good as the Braves do making those decisions. But the notion that contending teams should rely on veterans is belied by the long record of success of the Braves, who regularly chose youth and skill over experience and certainty, and found those young players pushing them towards division and league championships year after year.
J.D. Pruitt, strange outcome player
J.D. Pruitt plays for the Vancouver Canadians, Oakland’s Northwest League affiliate. He came out of the University of Montevallo, he’s listed as a 5’9″ outfielder who weighs 195, born in 1985, so he’s 22 in short-season ball.
He’s hitting .187/.466/.271.
Pruitt, in 36 games and 107 at-bats, has 20 hits, 1 2b, 1 3b, 2 HR, 31 walks, and 43 K.
“But Derek,” you may be thinking, “that’s only a .370 OBP.”
Aha! The problem, and what’s not showing on his stats page, is that Pruitt’s been hit by (if I caught this correctly) 25 pitches so far this season, on his way to destroying the Northwest League record.
He’s been hit by 5 more pitches than he has hits.
Supposedly, and I haven’t seen it, he doesn’t have the Valle lunge or the Biggio armor-and-lean. He doesn’t move, and at that level the pitchers are wild enough that it means you get plunked all the time doing that.
But I want to just ponder this for a second, the weirdest outcome player ever. Each time he comes to the plate, here’s the odds:
10% it’s a single (12% total for any hit)
15% he’s hit by a pitch
20% he walks
26% he strikes out
.187/.466/.271
If you pay attention to the low minors, you see some strange things.
Trade Deadline Thread
Okay, so, today’s the day when the rumors can finally die, and in 6 hours or so, the trade deadline will have passed. After talking it over, Derek and I have decided to turn comments off until after the deadline passes or news breaks about a Mariner deal. Thanks to the growth of the site, and the desire of so many of you guys to hit refresh constantly to read new comments, this is our best way to keep the site up and running today. If you absolutely have to post something for others to read, I suggest the diaries section over at Lookout Landing.
We’ll be updating this thread with analysis of moves that happen and giving our reactions on things of substance, kind of like one of the old running diaries from before we enabled comments a few years ago. And if news of an M’s trade breaks, that move will get its own post, and we’ll turn the comments back on. However, we’ll still ask that you be nice to the server and understand that there are going to be a lot of people visiting the blog today, and we’re doing the best we can to make sure that there’s a site for them to come to.
Anyway, on to the commentary.
6:30 am
The only rumor that has any real legs kicking around is the Jeff Clement for Al Reyes swap that has been discussed the last few days. You should be able to guess our stance on this one – the Mariners just don’t need another right-handed relief pitcher, and certainly not at this cost. I understand that some people like old guys instead of young guys, and I realize that depth is hardly a bad thing, but those in favor of this move are simply failing to do a cost benefit analysis. With the M’s current roster, moving one of their better young players for a 37-year-old oft-injured reliever is like a traveler having the following conversation while trying to pick a hotel on a road trip. Imagine it like a Choose Your Own Adventure story:
“Hey, look honey, a Super 8. Only $40 a night and it’s right off this exit. How convenient.”
“A super 8? Come on. We’re better than that. This is our vacation. We need to make it as enjoyable as possible. Super 8’s only have outdoor pools, and I really want to swim in an indoor pool.”
“A pool is a pool, right?”
“No. I like indoor pools. Hey, look, there’s a Best Western. They have an indoor pool! Let’s go there.”
“Okay, we’ll check it out. Hi, Mr. Best Western Clerk – how much is a room for the night. $50,000? Are you insane? $50,000! You’re a Best Western in the middle of Utah!”
“But honey, they have an indoor pool! If you love me, money should be no object. Don’t you love me?”
Stop:
To choose to stay in the Best Western but spend all your money for the luxury of an indoor pool, turn to page 342, then go outside and throw yourself in front of oncoming traffic. To choose to stay in the Super 8 and keep the $49,960 for something slightly more useful at a later date (potential suggestion – a new wife), turn to page 184.
Since I doubt many people reading this are in favor of a Clement-Reyes swap, I’ll spare you all the analysis of why a reliever would simply be redundant for this team, and why the marginal cost so outweighs the marginal value that this is an idea that is just incomprehendably bad. Let us all join together and root that the Mariners organization learned something, anything, from the Lowe/Varitek for Slocumb debacle of ten years ago.
7:45 am
While I’ve dropped the name J.P. Howell multiple times the past week as someone I actually would be interested in, I’ve never really expanded, and I’ve gotten a few questions about what I’d give up for him. Obviously, considering his ERA and the fact that Tampa sent him back to Durham, the goal would be to get him as cheaply as possible, but if I had to surrender Clement or Balentien straight up, I’d do it. Besides Adam Jones and Carlos Triunfel (6 for 6 last night, by the way, now hitting .340 in high-A as a 17-year-old), I’d swap any other player in the system straight up for Howell.
I know, I know, he had a 7.36 ERA and Tampa decided he wasn’t good enough to pitch for them despite having the worst pitching staff in baseball. I don’t care. He throws strikes, misses bats, and gets groundballs, and you can’t find an example of a guy with these kinds of peripheral stats that stayed healthy and didn’t turn into a useful major league pitcher. He’s never really gotten a shot and he’s played on two of the worst teams in baseball in his career. Get him into Safeco and watch what happens.
If the Mariners make a trade with Tampa Bay and don’t at least ask about J.P. Howell, they might as well just resign in shame.
9:20 am
The Cardinals just traded for Joel Pineiro. On purpose! He now gets to team with Spiezio again. Hope the pharmacies stay open late in St. Louis.
Also, the Dodgers just sent Wilson Betemit to the Yankees for Scott Proctor. It’s amazing how badly the Dodgers are being run right now. As most bad organizations do, Los Angeles focused on his batting average (just .229) and not his secondary skills (.359 OBP, .474 SLG) and decided that he couldn’t help them, despite the fact that they’re struggling to score runs while giving lots of at-bats to total scrubs like Juan Pierre. The Yankees make a golden pickup here, giving up nothing of value for a 25-year-old who can help them.
12:00 pm
One hour to go, and the M’s don’t appear to be on the verge of any trades. To which I give an enthusiastic huzzah. I’m basically on the J.P. Howell or nothing bandwagon. Everyone else on the market is not that good and ridiculously overpriced.
Eric Gagne may be heading to Boston if he waives his no trade clause, with the Red Sox parting with David Murphy, Kason Gabbard, and Engel Beltre. To put this in Mariner terms, would you be happy if the M’s parted with Jeremy Reed, Ryan Feierabend, and Mario Martinez for Gagne? I might do that, even with my insistance that the M’s don’t need another reliever. This could be another win-win trade for both teams.
Rumors have the Braves aggressively pursuing Bronson Arroyo. I’ve never been a fan and I’m certainly not any more of one now.
55 minutes and counting. Stay strong, Bill – don’t do anything I wouldn’t do.
12:15 pm (DMZ):
Word is the Dotel-for-Davies trade, rumored to be off/not final, is done.
12:20 pm (Dave):
Yep – both Braves deals are done. They get Teixeira and Dotel for a huge amount of young talent. John Schuerholz is a hall of fame GM, but he’s had better days.
12:45 pm (DMZ):
Mateo to the Phillies for… ?
12:50 pm (Dave):
Almost certainly nothing. The M’s were committed to sending Mateo somewhere else if anyone had interest, and this looks like the classic give-a-guy-a-shot-elsewhere trade that Bavasi believes in. I’m totally fine with this – Mateo wasn’t going to help the M’s, and now we don’t have to worry about ever seeing him in Seattle again. Irony upon irony – he now gets to setup for Brett Myers.
1:00 pm (Dave):
Looks like shipping Mateo to Philly is the only move the M’s have made, though sometimes deals trickle in after the deadline. As long as they are submitted to MLB offices by now, they can still be made public later. But it looks like we may have gotten our wish, and Bill Bavasi stood his ground in the face of public pressure to do something, anything, to show he was being active. Well, there wasn’t anything worth doing this year, and I’m certainly glad the M’s didn’t punt a valuable trade chip for a marginal middle reliever.
UZRs for 2007
By way of MGL (direct link to the spreadsheet). There’s some… we’ll call it counter-intuitive results in there.
Happy Felix Day, or Happy Conflicting Book Event
Felix starts tonight in the third game of the series against the Angels… and, by wild coincidence, I have a book event *at almost the exact same time* at Third Place Books in Lake Forest Park. The last time I was scheduled to do an author appearance there, I ended up in the ER in Bremerton.
I’m sure some helpful soul will smuggle in his laptop, or whatnot, so we’re not entirely deprived.
Update! As msb suggests, the new secret plan is to do the reading/signing and then hustle over to the nearest TV at the Mexican restaurant (is it Torero’s?) if the game’s still interesting for general tomfoolery.
I’m happy to take suggestions on parts to read from.
Gil Meche, Opening Day Starter
I’ve been tinkering with this post for a while now, as occasionally people have written in to chide us for not writing it, and I beg your pardon.
We know the deal, Meche’s long history of inconsistency and frustration. Here at USSM, we thought Meche’s deal in Kansas City was crazy, and said so a number of times. Right now, it looks like everyone who said he had “ace stuff” and potential were right, and we were wrong.
Gil Meche today is 3-1 in nine starts (woo! KC offense!) with a 1.91 ERA. In 61 1/3rd innings, he’s been stellar: 47 K, 16 walks, 6 HR — it’s crazy. He’s getting later into games, too: his average is about 6 2/3rds each start, which is not super, but he’s not getting regularly chased out in the fourth and fifth.
But he’s not striking out more batters, and his home run rate is about what it was. What’s the deal, then? There are a couple reasons he’s been a lot more effective so far. One is under his control, and the other — well, I’ll get there.
His walks are way down. The last three years of his Mariner career, Meche walked about 10% of the batters who came to the plate, and so far he’s only walking about 6.5% — and that’s a walk a game. His best years in this respect – 2003-04 – he was at about 8.5% (conveniently, about halfway between this year and his 2005-2006 average)(not that that means anything).
The other is that Meche so far has been dramatically better at getting ground balls than he ever has. He’s running a 56.4% ground ball percentage. In 2006, it was 43%, and that’s a little higher than his career average. That’s huge. His whole career, he’s been a slight fly ball pitcher (.83-.97 G/F from 1999-2005), then in 2006 he ticked up a little bit into groundballing (1.11 G/F in ESPN’s stats). He’s at 1.98 now. Of pitchers with at least 40 innings thrown, he’s #9 in G/F ratio (Webb is at an unreal 3.81)
And that raises the real question: is that for real? Can that possibly be for real?
I don’t think so, and for two reasons. One, I haven’t been able to find a historical precedent for that kind of change. We can talk about pitchers who sucked for a while and then got better, but someone with that many seasons getting that much better, and not just better but so different in results?
The other is that there’s no good explanation for why this would be so. The stories I could find on Meche point to improved mechanics, particularly being able to repeat them. I’m always skeptical of these stories (if it’s that easy, why didn’t it happen at any time in his Seattle stint?) but what’s more, their purported benefit is in better velocity, location, and consistency. Not a new pitch, not a new approach, nothing of the sort — and if he had better location and velocity, you’d expect to see more strikeouts, which we’re not, and fewer walks, which we are.
Unless you want to argue that better location also means he can pound down in the zone, but (and I entirely admit this is subjective) having seen him and looked at some of his pitch charts, I don’t see it. That said, I don’t have systematic information, like 20% are up in the zone where 40% used to be, or anything of the sort, so feel free to offer more information on this if you can find it.
The end result is I look at this and think “I’m willing to concede that between the change in organizations and coaches, Meche could have found something in his delivery that was fixable — but even dramatic results from that don’t explain apparently unprecedented magnitude of the turnaround, and the incredible change to being a ground ball machine.”
So I don’t think this is sustainable. Meche may be better than the Meche we saw, even significantly so, but there’s no explanation that fills the gap between the Meche we saw and the results Meche has seen so far.
That I knew it was coming made it no less painful
