Figgins Back To Third
We all saw this coming, but Jack Z tells Kirby Arnold that Chone Figgins will be moving back to third base for 2011. The second base experiment was an unmitigated disaster, and with Dustin Ackley on the way, there was no point having Figgins take another run at it. With Figgins back at third, Brendan Ryan is clear to begin the season as the starting second baseman. If Ackley forces a promotion at some point in the summer, then they have the flexibility to have Ryan take over at shortstop if need be.
It’s only news in the sense that it the rumor is now confirmed, but it’s nice to see that the M’s are making the logical move here.
Edgar’s HOF Support Drops
This is expected, as we’d seen enough early ballots to get a feel for where this was headed, but today’s HOF voting announcement reveals that Edgar Martinez has seen his proportion of the vote drop in his second year of eligibility. After getting 36 percent of the vote last year, he fell to 33 percent this year. We have always suspected that Edgar’s only possible path to Cooperstown was the long slow road, and this simply confirms that suspicion. Realistically, with the glut of power hitters coming on the ballots over the next few years, Edgar doesn’t have much of a chance for the next decade or so.
It’s a bit sad, but it’s also reality. For the next ten years, we’re going to spend one day in early January trying to figure out what the direction of Martinez’s vote total means for his possible election in the following year. Prepare for one very long haul.
Bard Comes Back on NRI
The January Baseball Doldrums brought news that Josh Bard re-signed with the Mariners today, providing competition for Adam Moore at the back-up catcher position, or at least more competition than Chris Gimenez is likely to provide. Note also how much Bard’s comments seem to mirror those that the front office is likely to make, right down to the “at the end of the day” in the third sentence. Also that we apparently have the green light to call our new manager “Wedgie,” though I would not encourage it.
Bard only appeared in thirty-nine games with the Mariners last year, which seems off until you realize that Adam Moore and Rob Johnson caught roughly the same number of innings last year, and we also saw Eliezer Alfonzo for a while. That he was the best hitting Mariners catcher last season is equal parts enlightening and appalling. In Tacoma, however, the best hitter was Rob Johnson followed by Moore, so at least that’s moderately encouraging. Bard may see more of Tacoma this season depending on how things shake out during spring training.
Olivo Signs With M’s, Capuano Does Not
The Mariners officially announced the Miguel Olivo signing today, only about a month after it was agreed to. Timeliness is apparently not next to Godliness. To make room on the 40 man roster, Anthony Varvaro was designated for assignment. They’ll trade him to someone who will take a shot on his velocity and hope he figures out how to throw strikes. He’s not a big loss.
In actual news, you can forget the Chris Capuano speculation, as he’s agreed to join the Mets on a one year deal. It’s not Safeco, but Citi Field is another pretty good pitcher’s park, and there’s no DH in the NL, so he still did okay for himself. The M’s will have to look elsewhere for a cheap back-end starting pitcher.
Hip Surgery For Aardsma
Well, if you were wondering why the Mariners haven’t traded David Aardmsa yet, here’s one possible explanation – they announced today that he needs surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left hip. Of the two labrums you don’t want a pitcher to injure, this one’s better than the shoulder, obviously, but it’s still going to nuke his trade value for the rest of the winter. The recovery timetable should allow him to be ready sometime during Spring Training if all goes well, but he’s going to have to throw well in Peoria before any team would even consider making an offer for him.
This has a few repercussions for the team.
1. They’re basically out of money now. The only way they were going to be able to add another significant free agent was to move Aardsma and use the money that would have gone his way to sign someone else, but now that he’s going to be on the books to begin the season, they don’t have much budget flexibility left. You can probably kiss guys like Jeff Francis or Kevin Millwood goodbye – they might be able to still get in on Chris Capuano, but it’s going to be all bargain shopping for the rest of the winter.
2. Aardsma’s probably going to be here until the summer. Even if he recovers and is ready to begin the season, most teams will have given their ninth inning job to someone else, and the M’s will have to wait for another team’s closer to either get hurt or struggle before a market develops for his services. The earliest you’re probably looking at a possible deal for Aardsma is June, and that’s only if he’s pitching well at the beginning of the year.
This is obviously a blow to the organization. Even if they end up moving Aardsma this summer, the opportunity cost of being out of money this winter presents a loss, and now there’s increased odds that Aardsma will have diminished trade value at the deadline. It’s not the end of the world, but this is not good news.
Bloomberg Interviews Eric Wedge In Orlando
This is a few weeks old, but the guys over at Bloomberg Sports spent a few minutes talking with Eric Wedge down in Orlando. He didn’t say anything overly exciting, but he also didn’t say “belief system”, so that’s a good start.
The video is embedded below if you want to listen to the M’s new skipper say things that skippers say.
Another Possible Rotation Option
Jason Churchill and I heard the same rumor today, linking the M’s to Chris Capuano as a potential option for the back-end starter need that the team has. While I’ve been pretty vocal about Jeff Francis being my preferred option, Capuano presents an interesting possibility as well. He won’t be going back to Milwaukee, as the Brewers have traded for both Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum this month, leaving their rotation without a spot for Capuano in 2011. Doug Melvin said publicly today that the Brewers will move on without Capuano, as he wants to continue to be a starter and they could only offer him a bullpen role.
Why should the Mariners be interested? Well, there’s a few reasons, the most obvious being that he should be relatively cheap. He missed all of 2008 and 2009 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and only managed to throw 66 big league innings last year after starting the year in the minors and joining the Brewers initially as a reliever in June. He finished the year as a member of their rotation and did pretty well in that role, but he hasn’t been a full-time starter since 2007, and teams aren’t going to be offering up big money for a guy with his health questions. Given the team’s limited budget, the M’s are somewhat limited in what kinds of players they can make offers on, and Capuano should fit into the budget.
Beyond that, though, he’s a guy that this front office has some history with, having spent the last seven years in the Brewers organization after coming over in the Richie Sexson trade. Jack Z and the gang know Capuano and have seen him pitch well up close and personal, as they had a front row seat to the 2005-2007 stretch where he was a perfectly capable middle of the rotation starter. And, since they understand how Safeco’s park plays, they know that he could benefit dramatically from pitching half his games in Seattle.
As a left-handed starter, it’s no surprise that Capuano has given up more home runs to right-handed batters than to left-handed batters in his career; what is surprising is the proportion. He has faced 657 left-handed batters in the big leagues and allowed just 12 home runs, but has given up 98 bombs to the 2,699 right-handed batters he’s faced. To put that into a more conventional rate basis, his career HR/9 vs LHBs is 0.67, while its 1.43 vs RHBs. His home rate against righties is essentially double that of his mark against lefties. This is an unusually large split, but it appears that Capuano has a pitching style that leads directly to this result.
Left-handed hitters have put 53.8 percent of their career balls in play against Capuano on the ground; right-handed batters are at just 37.2 percent. While most pitchers induce more grounders versus same-handed hitters, it’s again the size of the split that is surprising. Against lefties, Capuano is doing something (mostly likely location based, since he doesn’t appear to throw a two-seam fastball) that gets them to hit the ball on the ground a majority of the time. He doesn’t do that same thing against right-handers, and it leads to a home run problem that is his biggest issue. With a career rate of 2.45 strikeouts to every walk, he’d be a pretty good starting pitcher if he could limit how often right-handed batters took him deep.
That is, of course, the one thing that Safeco Field prevents most – home runs by right-handed hitters. In Safeco, Capuano’s biggest weakness (and, in fact, his only major problem besides the health issues) would be minimalized, if not neutralized entirely. While pitchers like Jarrod Washburn and Jason Vargas have been able to take advantage of Safeco’s asymmetry, neither of them had anything close to the same tendencies that Capuano has displayed. He would stand to benefit more than either of those two from how the home park plays, and while it’s not quite as simple as dump-a-lefty-in-Safeco-and-watch-him-pitch-like-an-ace, you can bet that no other franchise could give him a chance to post better numbers in 2011 than the Mariners. As a guy coming off multiple years of injuries who will certainly be settling for a one year deal to try and re-establish some value, Seattle is the perfect landing spot for him.
He’s not quite as perfect for the Mariners, who could use some reliability in the back-end of a rotation that currently includes big question marks like Michael Pineda, David Pauley, and the always-around-but-never-actually-pitching Erik Bedard. Adding yet another guy who might be limited in how many innings he can offer might not be ideal, but the potential solid performance for even 100 to 150 innings at a low cost is not something the Mariners should ignore. A healthy Capuano pitching half his games in Safeco could end up being one of the best bargains of the winter, and while there’s a chance that they end up just paying for another broken lefty starter, the cost should be low enough to justify the risk.
I’d still prefer Francis, but Capuano is an interesting fallback plan. I wouldn’t even be opposed to bringing in both. This is the kind of pitcher that Safeco was made for, and the Mariners should be taking full advantage of how their park plays. Buying low on these types of guys is exactly how the team can benefit from a stadium that is, at times, a detriment to roster construction. If we’re going to be harmed by Safeco’s annoying ability to destroy right-handed pull hitters, we should also benefit from it’s abilities to make mediocre left-handed pitchers look amazing.
Derek On Jonah Keri’s Podcast
The subject is somewhat self explanatory. It’s Derek, it’s Jonah, it’s a podcast. I heartily recommend it. Actually, I heartily recommend all of Jonah’s podcasts, but this one gets special recognition because, hey, its DMZ.
Aardsma’s Value
Yesterday, we saw a report from mlb.com that stated the Mariners were seeking an impact bat in return for David Aardsma. My reaction? Make a joke about how that’s kind of a fairy tale. Plain and simple, the Mariners simply aren’t going to get anything resembling an impact major league bat for their closer, and they shouldn’t sit around waiting for that kind of offer.
There has been some talk that Aardsma’s market value has surged over the last few months, as the price for free agent relievers has gotten crazy. Logically, this makes sense – Aardsma does look like a relative bargain with a fixed salary of around $4 million next year when compared to the multi-year deals that relievers on the free market are getting. You would think that teams in the market for closers would then see trading for Aardsma as an alternative to paying the market rate, and the increased demand would drive up his trade value. However, as I noted on FanGraphs the other day, that doesn’t seem to be happening. Despite the inflation in free agency, we are not seeing a corresponding rise in trade value for players already under contract. The free agent market and trade market are not moving together.
The consensus seems to be that the main driver of this phenomenon is that teams are hoarding young talent now in a way that they haven’t before, perhaps in reaction to the rise in prices of free agents. If veterans cost more to sign, then teams are less likely to want to trade away players who could fill holes that they otherwise would have to pay market rates to fill. It could be that causality goes the other way, with more teams spending in free agency because they’re less willing to trade away their young prospects, but which one is the chicken and which one is the egg is not as important as the result itself. Right now, it seems like the trade market is pretty stagnant, and sellers are not doing as well as expected when moving veterans for younger talent.
So, the Mariners are faced with something of a dilemma. They can either move Aardsma for whatever the best deal on the table is this winter, likely settling for a decent-but-unspectacular prospect or major league role player in return, or hold onto him, let him rack up as many saves as he can, and then try to flip him this summer when teams won’t have free agent alternatives to add talent. There is a school of thought that closers garner more in return when moved at the deadline than in the offseason, though I haven’t seen much in the way of real evidence to support the assertion. But, beyond just the questionable rise in potential return, there are two main reasons why I don’t think the M’s would be wise to bring Aardsma to spring training.
1. Relievers are notoriously fickle.
Even the best relievers see their numbers shift wildly from year to year. George Sherrill, Trevor Hoffman, and Jonathan Papelbon all posted ERAs under 2.00 in 2009, then saw them balloon tremendously last year. Sherrill and Hoffman were downright terrible, two of the very worst relievers in the game. Papelbon was simply shaky, and saw most of his trade value disappear as his fly balls started to clear the wall with some regularity. Aardsma isn’t as good as any of those three were two years ago, and there’s a pretty good chance that he actually hurts his trade value by taking the mound in 2011. Remember, his ERA at the end of July was 4.59, which is one of the reasons the M’s ended up hanging onto him last summer. The risk of Aardsma tanking next year almost certainly outweigh the minimal increase in return you’d get if he pitched well and raised his trade value incrementally. Keeping him is akin to hitting on 17 in Blackjack. There are scenarios where it works out, but more often, you’ll end up going bust.
2. The M’s need the $4 million they’d save by moving him.
We’ve talked about some of the holes this roster still has. Specifically, they are at least one starting pitcher short, Milton Bradley is currently the team’s only reserve outfielder, and Josh Wilson would have to take a starting role if any infielder landed on the DL. Part of the reason the team hasn’t been more active in filling these holes is that they’re up against their budgetary limitations. Moving Aardsma would likely give them enough money to win the bidding for a starter like Jeff Francis or Kevin Millwood, and they have better internal options to fill Aardsma’s 60 innings out of the bullpen than they do the 180 or so they need from a back-end starter.
In fact, I’d argue that if the Mariners are in danger of losing out on a decent starter (especially Francis) because of a lack of funds, they’d be better off giving Aardsma away than hanging onto him and hoping for a better offer to come rolling in. Aardsma is worth $4 million to other teams. He’s not worth $4 million to the Mariners. They have other areas where the money he’s owed would be better spent, and the best options to fill those areas are going to get picked up in the next few weeks. The M’s can’t afford to let those guys sign elsewhere while waiting for a perfect offer for their closer.
If I’m Jack Z, I’m moving Aardsma for the best thing I can get right now. If that’s just a middling middle reliever or a C prospect, so be it. I’d rather have the $4 million to spend on something else, and I’m not willing to potentially lose out on a solid free agent addition while hoping that the free agent inflation finally does carry over to the trade market. I’m not convinced it ever will, and if the M’s are counting on that happening, they may be in for severe disappointment.
Ichiro Speaks, Says Ichiro Stuff
Ichiro recently gave an interview to Kyodo News, which has been helpfully translated into English. As always, you should read the whole thing, but here are a few of the highlights.
Q: You had high expectations for your team at the beginning of the season, but it turned out to be a disappointing year.
A: When Randy Johnson threw out the ceremonial first pitch in our season home opener, he was joined on the mound by Dan Wilson, Edgar Martinez, Jay Buhner and Junior (Ken Griffey Jr.). It was good to see them all together but at the same time made me wonder if there is a real teammate for me. I hoped that Felix (Hernandez) or (Chone) Figgins would become one and that 2010 would be the start of a new Mariners era. But we stumbled from the outset.
Q: In recent years, the team has repeated a brief rise and a long downward slide.
A: The whole team had high hopes for the 2010 season because we thought we made good additions to the roster (such as left-hander Cliff Lee and second baseman Figgins). And we ended up like this. From now on, maybe we shouldn’t even voice our goals.
Q: What have you been doing this offseason?
A: I’ve been playing golf. I don’t get blisters from swinging the bat, but I get blisters all over my hands from golfing. Blisters are signs that you’re not a good baseball player or not a good golfer, I think.