Game 153, Mariners At Rays
Vargas vs Niemann, 4:10 pm.
Jeff Niemann has been awful since coming off the DL a month ago, giving up more runs than innings pitched. I’m guessing that changes tonight.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Lopez, DH
Gutierrez, CF
Smoak, 1B
Moore, C
Saunders, LF
Tuiasosopo, 3B
Josh Wilson, SS
Brock And Salk Day
I’ll be doing my radio spot with Brock and Salk at 11:30 today on ESPN 710.
Also, my latest post is now up at their blog, and deals with whether Felix Hernandez is on the verge of passing Randy Johnson as the best pitcher in franchise history.
Game 152, Mariners At Blue Jays
Hernandez vs Hill, 9:37 am.
Happy Felix Day.
For the second start in a row, I have to miss Felix, because I brilliantly scheduled a meeting for this afternoon. I should have checked the Felix calendar first.
Game 151, Mariners at Blue Jays
Pauley vs Drabek, 4:07 pm.
Let’s just get right to the line-up, because, well, you’ll see.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
LOPEZ, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Carp, DH
Bard, C
Langerhans, LF
Saunders, CF
Woodward, SS
More Call-Ups
With a hat tip to Ryan Divish, we have the rest of the M’s call-ups now that the Rainiers season is officially over: Mike Carp, Greg Halman, Matt Mangini, and Anthony Varvaro. Of the four, only Mangini was not on the 40 man roster, so they’ll have to move either Shawn Kelley, Jack Wilson, or Milton Bradley to the 60 day DL to make room for him.
The name most conspicuous by his absence? Josh Lueke. You can bet the farm that this is not a baseball decision, but a PR one. I’ve been told by several people in the game that they don’t think Lueke will ever pitch for the Mariners, and this serves as some confirmation of that speculation. We’ll see, but the smart money seems to lean towards Lueke getting traded this winter.
Game 150, Mariners at Blue Jays
French vs Rzepczynski, 4:07 pm.
The final two weeks of the season kick off in Toronto, as the M’s head up north and try to put some runs on the board. The Blue Jays will, that’s for sure. This year’s breakout star, Jose Bautista, will likely hit his 50th home run of the year in this series. Given that French is a flyball lefty, I’d actually bet on him doing it tonight. The M’s will have to string together some hits if they want to be competitive in this series.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Lopez, DH
Smoak, 1B
Langerhans, LF
Moore, C
Saunders, CF
Tuiasosopo, 3B
Josh Wilson, SS
What To Do At DH Next Year?
After watching one of the worst offenses in recent history, there is little doubt that the Mariners are going to pursue a hitter of some sort this winter. It would be almost unthinkable for them to bring back a similar roster next year and ask people to sign up for season tickets under the premise of “Chone Figgins should improve and Milton Bradley might be healthy this time!” They need a better offense for baseball reasons, but they also need a better offense for attendance and profitability reasons.
However, as we’ve discussed and as Matthew laid out at Looking Landing yesterday, the Mariners aren’t going to have a ton of money to spend this winter. They won’t be players for Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth, and will have to inject some life into the offense without shopping in the high rent district. And, in looking at the projected roster for next year, there’s really only one spot open where they could add a bat with some life – designated hitter.
They’re not going to sign a guy to block Michael Saunders from playing left field, as they’ll need to see what he can do everyday next year. They’re not going to sign a first baseman, as ditto on Justin Smoak. They could theoretically sign a third baseman and leave Figgins at second base, but they’re not going to want to close off Dustin Ackley‘s path to the big leagues, and Figgins hasn’t been very good at second base. They won’t be able to unload Jack Wilson‘s contract, and finding a shortstop who can hit isn’t easy anyway. In reality, DH is the only place where they can really add some offense.
Even if Milton Bradley returns to the team next year, they won’t count on him as an everyday player. His lack of production and his injury problems, not to mention his well publicized personal issues, mean that he’ll likely just be fighting for a job as the fourth outfielder and occasional DH in spring training. At best, the team will pencil him in for 300 to 400 at-bats, and probably not even expect that much. So, while he’s on the roster, they’re not going to let his presence stop them from pursuing another DH option.
So, the question is, what should the team do with the DH spot?
Their options are, essentially:
1. Pick up Russell Branyan‘s $5 million option for next year.
2. Sign an aging free agent to a short term deal with the promise of regular playing time.
3. Go with a younger, unproven guy who hasn’t had a real chance to show what he can do with 500 at-bats in year.
I’ll say unequivocally that they shouldn’t go with option #1. Branyan’s a decent enough player, but given his age, back problems, and overall averageness, there’s no reason to give him $5 million next year. He won’t get that from any other team, and there’s no reason for the M’s to blow a good chunk of their winter spending money on a guy with so many questions and so little long term upside. If they could bring him back for $1 million or $2 million, and they didn’t have any better options, that might be something to look at, but there’s no way they should exercise the current option on his deal.
The second option is probably the most likely, as it’s a free agent class filled with guys who have a little bit of offense left in the tank, but not much else. Forget Adam Dunn – he doesn’t want to DH, and he’s certainly not going to relocate across the country to DH for a team that was among the worst in baseball. Other options include Hideki Matsui, Lyle Overbay, and Brad Hawpe, all of whom would likely sign for one year at potentially reasonable prices, but would simply serve as stop-gaps for the 2011 season, and likely have little in the way of a long term future in Seattle.
The last option is the kind of move that the front office made two years ago, when they were renovating the roster that they inherited. They took gambles on Branyan, Franklin Gutierrez, and David Aardsma, seeing all three pay off with returns well above the cost of investment. This is the kind of move that makes the most sense baseball wise, as the team could attempt to find a decent player who could help them in 2011 and beyond, and would likely not take up much of the limited room in the budget.
A great example is Dan Johnson, who the Rays are getting production from after picking him up for a song over the winter. They gave him $500,000 to serve as a bench guy, but then cut him in spring training. He mashed in Triple-A all year, and has continued to hit since being recalled in August. His .235 average isn’t much to look at, but he walks a lot (20.4% BB%) and has good power (.250 ISO), allowing him to produce despite the low batting average. In a lot of ways, he’s like a Russ Branyan with a bit less power, but he has the added benefit of being younger, healthier, and striking out less often.
Johnson will be arbitration eligible this winter, and will probably get between $1 and $2 million based on his service time and pretty solid numbers down the stretch for Tampa Bay. The Rays may choose to hang onto him and just give him their DH job next year, but they also might want to do a little better at DH than a 30-year-old career journeyman, especially if they are trying to replace Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford this winter. I don’t know if he’ll be available or not, but he’s an example of the kind of guy that the Mariners could get a lot of value from.
The last option is the best one, I think, as the team could extract short term and long term value from a position where they don’t have an internal answer ready to step in, and they could do it without using a bulk of the limited resources they’ll have this winter. However, there’s no way to sell Dan Johnson (or someone like him) as a difference maker to the fanbase, and I’m sure there will be pressure to make a splash with a bigger name thumper. Will the team go for the move that makes the most sense given the roster construction, or will they try to appease an angry group of customers who want a guy whose name they know?
The Most Obvious Move Of The Winter
As the season thankfully winds down and we run out of things to say about Felix, it’s about time we start looking ahead to the off-season. This will undoubtedly be a busy winter for the Mariners, as they set out to hire a new manager and build a roster that won’t suck as bad as this one did. Adding to the intrigue is the sheer quantity of young players that are near major league ready or should be at some point in 2011, which both gives the team some depth and also provides reason to be hesitant about filling holes with established major league veterans. The Mariners are probably going to be a pretty young team next year, as they try to find out just what they can expect going forward from the likes of Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders, and Adam Moore, as well as potentially mixing in guys like Dustin Ackley, Michael Pineda, and Dan Cortes.
So, in several positions, we’re not really sure what the Mariners are going to do this winter, as they’ll have to choose between upgrading the roster and creating opportunities for some young players that make up the future of the organization. There is one position, however, where the plan looks to be pretty obvious, at least from my perspective, and that’s the closer role.
David Aardsma racked up his 31st save yesterday, and after giving up a bunch of home runs in the first half of the year, he has his ERA down to 3.44. As a guy who has now converted 69 saves in the last two years, he’s earned the label of proven closer, which still holds value to quite a few teams around the game. However, for teams who don’t want to pay market prices for high leverage relievers, Aardsma will represent a cost-effective option, as his arbitration raise will likely push his salary into the $4 to $4.5 million range. That’s several million less than what closers have been getting in free agency the last few years, and he’ll have the added benefit of being a guy with two years of club control but only one year of commitment, thanks to the arbitration process.
If the Mariners decide to put him on the block this winter, he’ll have some trade value. And, given the expected structure of the club, they’ll almost certainly make him available this winter. It would be crazy not to.
For starters, 2011 doesn’t look like a contending year for the Mariners, given how many young players they’re going to have to break in at once. “Proven Closers” are a luxury that rebuilding teams can’t afford, and that’s likely what the Mariners will be next year. And, while Aardsma will have value to a contender with a budget, that value will likely diminish the longer the team holds onto him. Even if he has a good year in 2011, his payday in arbitration for 2012 will get up into the $7 million range, at which point a lot of teams would rather shop for a better closer in free agency. While the Mariners have two more years of club control on Aardsma, only the next one has any significant surplus value, and so he’s better viewed as a guy going into the last year of his contract.
And, for this team, there’s just no reason to keep a guy who won’t be here in 2012, especially at a position where he will probably be replaced without too many problems. Even with all his pitch selection issues, Brandon League is still an equal or better pitcher than Aardsma, and should be able to handle the closer role in 2011, so the team wouldn’t see a big downgrade in ninth inning performance. In the middle innings, the organization has a host of promising young bullpen arms who could step in and provide value both in the short term and long term. Cortes, especially, provides a lot of the same skills that Aardsma brings to the table, only he’ll do so at the league minimum next year, and has a long term future in Seattle. Giving Aardsma’s roster spot to Cortes would save the Mariners a decent chunk of change without significantly downgrading the bullpen, and would allow the team to evaluate one of their better prospects at the same time.
As we’ve talked about, the M’s won’t have a lot of money to throw around this winter, so saving $4 million by moving Aardsma could create enough payroll flexibility to let them go out and make a move for a guy who can make an impact elsewhere. It’s a good winter to be DH-shopping, and the team could use another reliable starter at the back-end of the rotation as well. Moving Aardsma not only gets you value in what the team could get back for him via trade, but in what the team could acquire with the money that would go to having him on the roster next year. They won’t get anyone’s top prospect for him, but the combined value of the return in trade and the ability to redistribute the cash to other places on the roster make this a no-brainer.
Aardsma’s time in Seattle is almost certainly coming to an end. At some point this winter, the M’s will be presented with an offer for their closer that simply makes too much sense to pass up. It’s the one thing about this off-season that you can essentially take to the bank.
Game 149, Rangers at Mariners
Hunter vs Fister, 1:10 pm.
Two big pitching mismatches went as expected in the first two games, so now we get a match-up of two pretty similar pitchers, as both guys throw strikes with pedestrian stuff and hope that the ball finds a defender. The game will probably be decided by which offense performs better, which oh crap.
Game 148, Rangers at Mariners: Dan Cortes and Justin Smoak Forced to Join Big Club
Vargas vs. Cliff Lee, 6:10pm
Your line-up, courtesy of Shannon Drayer
1: Ichiro
2: Figgins
3: Lopez (DH)
4: Gutierrez
5: Justin Smoak (1b)
6: Bard
7: Tuiasosopo (3B)
8: Saunders
9: Wilson
With their teammates on an exciting 8 hour bus ride from Memphis to Oklahoma City for the AAA Championship, Dan Cortes and Justin Smoak got the call they’d probably been dreading since mid-August. Instead of playing a largely-irrelevant one-off game for the AAA championship, they’re going to head to Seattle to join the Mariners as they slog through the remaining 15 games on the schedule. In exchange for an upgrade to their mode of travel, they’ll spell the likes of Casey Kotchman and Jamey Wright. As Cortes hasn’t played in the majors yet, he’ll likely be the target of pranks played by Brian Sweeney and Sean White. When people talk about what an amazing job pro athletes have, take a moment to consider Dan Cortes.
Cortes has the velocity and big breaking pitch of Brandon League; and like League, he occasionally suffers from bouts of wildness. But his FB may actually be better than League’s (though his breaking ball isn’t as good, Cortes may actually throw his, so it might even out). After converting to the bullpen a few months ago, Cortes has only had a few truly terrible outings (including last Saturday’s PCL Playoff meltdown in Seattle), but he’s got the most pure stuff of any reliever on the M’s 40 man.
This was first reported by Kirby Arnold of the Everett Herald, who didn’t mention if Cortes was crying when he saw him at Safeco. Photo of his delivery here.