Mariners Sign Pimentel
When it comes to international business, the M’s [almost] always get their man. Larry Stone proves that point with reports that the Mariners have signed 16-year-old Dominican OF Guillermo Pimentel, at a figure of about $2 million. Unlike last year’s big signing in CF Julio Morban, who was recently demoted to Peoria, Pimentel is more of a power hitter with a less refined, though still relatively good approach. He’s listed as a CF right now, but a move to left is probably due in the future, since he lacks foot speed and a premium arm. The Mariners had been linked with Pimentel since March, and got him despite a rumored effort by the Rangers to scoop him up.
News on OF Alexis Parma, the toolsy Venezuelan outfielder they were previously linked to, has yet to come out, but these things often take a few days to get through the wires. Pimentel, for example, signed yesterday and we’re only now getting wind of it. The Mariners will likely get a press release out in the coming weeks, or BA will get the lists and I’ll relay what I’ve heard. That would likely include the signings of Korean prospects 3B/C Choi Ji-man and RHP Kim Sun-ki for about $1 million total. Seattle would like to pick up one of the interesting shortstops that are around, but other teams have a head start on them there. This year’s market lacks quality pitching, so don’t expect any J.C. Ramirez/Francisco Valdivia-type acquisitions.
I’m Running Out Of Words
So, instead, I’ll just present a picture.
Franklin Gutierrez, All-Star. It won’t happen, but you could make a pretty good argument that it should.
Game 78, Mariners at Yankees
The debut of Langerhans! Vargas v. Sabathia, 4:05.
RF-L Ichiro
1B-L Branyan
2B-R Lopez
DH-R Sweeney
CF-R Gutierrez
C-R Johjima
LF-L Guy who was once traded for Snelling
3B-R Woodward
SS-R Cedeno
As slightly weird as it is to break Langerhans in against the lefthander, two things. His statistics don’t seem to indicate much of a platoon split (even doing a bit better against lefties in the majors, slightly worse in the minors, for what those sample sizes are worth). And in terms of lineup construction, it’s still nice to break up that string of righthanded bats that mostly share similar weaknesses and are easily neutralized by a properly deployed bullpen.
Sell High On Mark Lowe?
We’ve talked the Washburn/Bedard trade possibilities to death. However, the most interesting story surrounding the team right now is what they’re going to do in the next month to re-shape the roster for the rest of 2009 and beyond. Those two aren’t the only ones they’ll have to make decisions on, however. I’d like to suggest that now might be a great time for the organization to consider trading Mark Lowe.
Every year, there are teams out there pursuing relief pitching at the deadline. This year is no different, with Colorado, Minnesota, Detroit, Philadelphia, Texas, Florida, and both Los Angeles teams looking to pick up a relief arm to bolster their chances for a playoff run. On the flip side, the M’s have bullpen depth, thanks to the breakout of David Aardsma and the impending return of Shawn Kelley, plus the expected 2010 arrival of Phillippe Aumont and Josh Fields.
Given the way the market is shaping up, I’d like to suggest that the team make Mark Lowe available for offers. He has a lot of things going for him that would make him an attractive trade piece – He’s just 26 years old, makes the league minimum and isn’t eligible for free agency for four more years, has a sparkly 3.28 ERA, and his 96.2 MPH average fastball is the fifth fastest in baseball.
To teams looking for bullpen help, Lowe should have significant appeal. He doesn’t come with a prohibitive contract. He isn’t a rental player. His velocity suggests closer potential. And, in the stat that still dominates how people perceive pitching quality, he’s doing well already.
Of course, we’ll just have to hope they don’t notice that Lowe isn’t actually pitching all that well. While his strikeout rate continues a disturbing nosedive, his walk rate is still above four, and he’s giving up more fly balls than ever. His 3.60 FIP is deflated by the fact that only 2 of his 38 fly balls have left the yard. In addition, Lowe has basically stopped throwing his change-up, which has made him ineffective against left-handed hitters.
Lowe isn’t a bad reliever, but he’s not a particularly good one either. There’s potential there for more, but for whatever reason, he’s regressing instead of getting better. As a guy who has found his velocity again after recovering from arm surgery, you’d like to see improvement in his strikeout rate, but we’re getting the opposite from Lowe.
He might still put it all together, and there is potential in a guy with a 96 MPH fastball and the ability to throw two secondary pitches. But if you’re looking for a guy who could probably bring back more in trade than he’s worth, Mark Lowe would be a prime candidate.
The last time Jack traded an overvalued relief pitcher, it worked out pretty well for us, I’d say. We’re not going to get the next Franklin Gutierrez for Mark Lowe, but I’d bet he could fetch a pretty interesting player. More interesting than a right-handed relief pitcher with a strikeout rate headed the wrong way, anyway.
Game 77, Mariners at Yankees
Washburn vs Pettitte, 4:05 pm
Wak returned to his senses today, so we get the following line-up.
Ichiro, RF
Branyan, 1B
Lopez, 2B
Griffey, DH
Gutierrez, CF
Balentien, LF
Woodward, 3B
Johnson, C
Cedeno, SS
I will say that it’s a little strange that Sweeney played last night, against an RHP, but is sitting tonight against an LHP. Wak put Junior in left field last night in order to get Sweeney’s bat in the line-up, so there has to be something there offensively that he likes, but why would he like it against an RHP and not against an LHP? You got me. Oh well. I still like Wak, and I think he’s doing a terrific job overall. He’s just made some strange line-up decisions lately.
This is a big start for Washburn. If he can hold down a good Yankee line-up in a good hitters park, you better believe that contenders looking for pitching will take notice. Thankfully, his lefty killing two-seamer should help him against Cano and Damon, at least.
The M’s need this one. Vargas vs Sabathia tomorrow is another mismatch, so this is the one they have the best shot of winning. If they’re going to avoid a sweep, it’s probably because they play well tonight. If they don’t, the trip to Boston is probably full of “how do we turn this around?” cliches.
Yuni To Second?
Lost in the rest of the news yesterday was a short note from Larry LaRue that the team is considering shifting Yuniesky Betancourt to second base when he returns from the disabled list. Lopez would move to third in Beltre’s absence, and Cedeno would presumably continue as the starting shortstop.
This move would do a couple of things. Most notably, it’s probably the best defensive infield the team can run out there without Beltre. Yuni is probably a -5 to -15 defender at SS now, while Lopez is 0 to -10 at second, and Woodward is -5 to +5 at third. That would suggest that the M’s would expect to lose 15 runs on defense from those three positions compared to league average over a full season.
By shifting Betancourt and Lopez to positions where their range isn’t as critical, they would get a good chunk of those runs back. Cedeno’s something like a -5 to +5 shortstop, while Betancourt would probably be a -0 to -10 second baseman, and Lopez would be -5 to +5 at third base, where his defensive skillset profiles a bit better. All of the sudden, -15 from that group becomes a -5.
It also gives them a new series of moves to consider. We’d talked about the rather lackluster options for acquiring a third baseman from outside the organization, but the re-alignment would put the M’s in the position to be able to buy a shortstop instead. There are some decent ones available, from Jack Wilson to Nick Punto to Reid Brignac (okay, he’s less available than the other two, but one can dream). Acquiring either Wilson or Punto would put the M’s in a position to get above average defense from their 2B/3B/SS collection, which is hard to imagine given the talent on the roster right now.
Given the available options, this is probably the best the M’s can do. It’s not great, and they should still look to upgrade on Cedeno at short if they can get a decent player for a reasonable price, but it’s better than having Chris Woodward in the line-up on a regular basis.
It also comes with the bonus that if Beltre is able to return in September, there’s a pretty good chance that Betancourt is the one who loses the game of musical chairs. Lopez would almost certainly go back to second base, and Yuni would have had to impress enough with his work to unseat Cedeno or the new shortstop and get his old position back. Yea, I don’t think that’s very likely either.
Game 76, Mariners at Yankees
Morrow vs Chamberlain, 4:05 pm.
Brandon Morrow is an extreme flyball pitcher who gets torched by left-handed batters. New Yankee Stadium is turning more fly balls into home runs than any other park in baseball this year, and the benefit is going almost entirely to left-handed hitters pulling the ball over the closer, shorter right field wall. The Yankees have a bunch of good left-handed power hitters.
This is a really bad match-up. And, Wak just made it worse.
Ichiro, RF
Branyan, 1B
Lopez, 2B
Griffey, LF (BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!)
Sweeney, DH (BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!)
Gutierrez, CF
Woodward, 3B
Johjima, C
Cedeno, SS
I’d give the M’s about a 5% chance of winning tonight. This is something like the worst line-up that Wak could put on the field, and he did it on a night where Morrow needs every single piece of help he can get. Way to give your pitcher the least possible chance for success tonight.
Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
The Bedard/Washburn Myth
Whenever the discussion of what the M’s should do in terms of trading this summer comes up, inevitably, someone will make the point that this team can’t trade away Erik Bedard or Jarrod Washburn and hope to keep contending because “those guys are the reason the team is where they are”. The belief is that the team can’t trade either of their left-handed free agents to be without sinking the 2009 season, because those two are pitching so well that the team would experience a sudden collapse if either of them left.
The problem, however, is that the facts don’t support that belief.
Mariners record when Bedard or Washburn start: 12-13, .480 winning percentage
Mariners record when anyone else starts: 27-23, .540 winning percentage
67% of the Mariner games this season have been started by pitchers other than Bedard and Washburn. We’re supposed to believe that the M’s aren’t contenders without either of those two, yet the team has done just fine with those guys acting as spectators. Why? Because the reasons this team is winning go far beyond an old cliche that overvalues veteran starting pitching.
This team is winning because of Felix Hernandez, Ichiro, Russell Branyan, Franklin Gutierrez, David Aardsma, and Sean White, among others. They’re getting ridiculously good performances from that group, all of whom are producing all-star caliber results.
This isn’t to disparage Bedard or Washburn. Both guys have pitched well this season, and both are valuable members of the club. The team is better with them than without them, certainly. However, the reality of baseball is that starting pitching isn’t as important as most people think. Bedard and Washburn are not critical pieces that this team can’t live without. Felix, Ichiro, Branyan, Gutierrez, this version of Aardsma… those are guys the M’s can’t replace. Washburn and Bedard can be replaced.
If Bedard is healthy enough to rejoin the team before the all-star break, the M’s will have seven candidates for their starting rotation – Felix, Bedard, Washburn, Morrow, Vargas, Olson, and Rowland-Smith. Even though RR-S and Olson aren’t that good as starters and profile better out of the bullpen, that’s still a surplus. For a team with some gaping holes on the position player side of things, running a surplus of pitching when other major league teams are dying to trade for a starting pitcher isn’t a very good idea.
Even if you think the M’s should be going for it this year, you should still support the idea that the M’s should look to trade Bedard or Washburn in an effort to upgrade other parts of the club. The dropoff from either of those guys to Garrett Olson is smaller than the difference between Chris Woodward and a major league infielder. Or Yuniesky Betancourt and a big league shortstop.
Position players matter more than pitchers. It’s a sellers market for pitchers, and the M’s have starting pitchers to trade, while they have position players they need to buy. When people start busting out the old cliches about not messing with the rotation because “that’s why they’re winning”, don’t listen to them. The Mariners have options open to upgrading the team by trading Bedard or Washburn. They can deal one of the two and still get better this year.
Dual Minor League Game Thread
No M’s game tonight, so two options for your listening pleasure this evening, both starting at 7:05 pm.
Tacoma at Reno, Seddon vs Petit Etherton.
Everett at Eugene, Stanton vs Greenwood.
There are more prospects on the Rainiers squad (Everett should get a boost when the M’s start signing some of their draft picks), but Northwest League action is always fun to listen to as well, and Pat Dillon does a great job on the call for the Aquasox.
Or, you could always check out the Lake Elsinore-High Desert game and see if they can score 51 runs again tonight…
The Third Base Situation
So, Adrian Beltre’s gone for at least the next two months. That sucks. For a team with a lot of holes, losing a +3 win player that they don’t have any good internal candidates to replace is a pretty significant problem. Even those that are optimistic about this team’s playoff chances are hoping to steal the division by a game or two, and losing Beltre for two months takes a couple of expected wins from the team’s tally that they can’t really afford to lose.
Right now, the M’s are looking at replacing Beltre with Chris Woodward, either sticking him directly at third base or having him play second and shifting Lopez to third. Unfortunately for the Mariners, Woodward isn’t really a major league player.
In 2006, he got 253 plate appearances with the Mets and posted a .265 wOBA. In 2007, he got 151 plate appearances with the Braves and posted a .237 wOBA. In 2008, he split time between the Phillies and Brewers Triple-A squads, and posted a .312 wOBA. League average wOBA in the majors is about .330. Woodward couldn’t even match that against Triple-A pitching.
There’s a reason ZIPS projects a .274 wOBA from Chris Woodward over the rest of the 2009 season. That would maybe be an acceptable level of offense if Woodward was the best defensive shortstop in baseball, but unfortunately, he’s just a solid glove at 2B/3B, which makes the lack of offense a pretty significant problem.
As a team already running out replacement level players (or worse) at shortstop and catcher, and getting barely above replacement level performance from left field and designated hitter, the M’s can’t really afford to punt third base too. You can’t have five of your regular positions be offering performances that are Triple-A level in quality and expect to make a serious run at a playoff spot.
So, if Woodward’s not the answer (and he’s not), then what? Sticking Lopez at third could work if the team had a legitimate replacement at second base, but they don’t. The organization is bereft of talent at 2B-3B-SS, so shifting Lopez to third is just robbing Peter to pay Paul. It doesn’t fix anything.
That leaves the Mariners with three choices, essentially.
1. Move Russell Branyan to third base and play Mike Carp at first base. Branyan has significant experience at third base and hasn’t embarrassed himself there (though he’s far from good at the hot corner), but the team is reluctant to mess with the good thing that Russ has going right now by asking him to transition back across the diamond in mid-season. And, while it’s nice to see a kid come up from Tacoma who knows how to draw a walk, we also have to realize that Carp’s not likely to produce at a level much above replacement level either. ZIPS had him projected for a .315 wOBA before the season started, and while his strong performance in Triple-A should bump that up a bit, you’re still looking at a .320 to .330 expected wOBA from Carp. He’s not much of a defensive player either, so you’d be downgrading two infield defense spots in order to get a below average hitter in the line-up. It’s understandable why that’s not a very appealing option to the M’s.
2. Trade for a player who can handle second or third base for a couple of months. The guy they need isn’t in the organization right now, so if they want a credible replacement for Beltre to help the team stay in the race, they’ll have to go acquire him. This can be done, as they showed with the Langerhans deal after Chavez got hurt, but there isn’t quite as obvious a solution to the 3B problem as there was to the LF problem. The guys that I would recommend the M’s take a look would include guys like Bobby Scales (Cubs), Eric Patterson (A’s), Kevin Frandsen (Giants), Ruben Gotay (D’Backs), and Scott Moore (Orioles). All of them are more useful than Woodward, and none of them should cost too much to acquire (though more than Langerhans did, certainly), but the expected level of performance isn’t going to be particularly high, either. These guys are all replacement level or slightly above, so while they’re improvements over Chris Woodward, we’re talking about a magnitude of less than one win. How much should the team give up to add half a win to this season’s roster? Not much, I’d argue, and the cost for these types of players might be too rich considering the likely return.
3. Hope and pray for a fluke. Right now, this sounds like the way the team is leaning. Woodward and Wilson aren’t likely to hit, but in 200 at-bats, anything is possible. Bad hitters have good months. It happens. So, while it’s not a very good strategy, the M’s might look around and decide that the probability of adding a legitimate 2B/3B type isn’t very high, and they’ll just have to roll the dice with what they have and hope for the best. The problem with this scenario is that the team is simultaneously trying to win as many games as possible to stay in the AL West race, and the dropoff from Beltre to Woodward is going to be obvious very quickly.
This is a problem with no easy solutions. Despite the desire by many to see the Branyan shift enabling Carp to play, there’s less upside and more downside with that move than you’d think. Ideally, the team would be able to go get a guy like Scales or Gotay for cheap in order to hold down the fort for a while, but that might not be possible. And if the other teams won’t cooperate in helping the M’s improve their roster, the team might just be stuck with a hole at third base.
We said before the season that Beltre, Ichiro, and Felix were the three guys this team couldn’t afford to lose. They just lost one of those three, and the options for filling the gap show why Beltre was so valuable to this particular team.