Well, That Complicates Things
Remember how I mentioned on Monday that the Texas series was more meaningful than usual games in May, because 17-10 with a 4+ game lead in the division made the “buy or sell” question seem a lot more cut and dried? At 15-12 with Silva taking the hill today and a beleaguered bullpen who just lost their best pitcher, welcome to confusion-land.
The M’s now stand just two games ahead of the Angels with 135 games to play. That’s not exactly a tough hole to climb out of, especially with reinforcements coming. John Lackey had his first rehab start for Salt Lake last night (against Tacoma, ironically), and could rejoin the Angels rotation next week. Ervin Santana isn’t far behind, and Vladimir Guerrero is running the bases and could be back on the team by the end of the month.
I don’t think the Angels are a great team, even with those three, but they’re a better team than the Mariners. The we-can-contend-this-year logic was based upon taking advantage of a broken Angels roster at the start of the year and building up a sizable lead that would take LAA the rest of the summer to overcome. Losing these last two games, with Felix and Bedard on the hill, put a pretty serious dent in that plan.
So now the M’s go forward with Silva-Washburn-Jakubauskas in the upcoming three games, and all three of those games feature right-handed starters for the opponents. Just like Vicente Padilla, Sidney Ponson does just fine against righties but gets tortured by lefties – unfortunately, the M’s just don’t have enough LH bats in the line-up, so Ponson faces his easiest possible matchup today. Same deal with Bannister tomorrow. Don’t be surprised if the M’s offense continues to “struggle”, but it’s not a slump, it’s a platoon match-up problem, and it won’t end until the team either addresses the ridiculous right-handedness of the position players or the team faces a bunch of left-handed pitchers.
They can only control the former, of course. If the Mariners view themselves as legitimate contenders for the AL West this year, Zduriencik and company are going to have to be willing to make some changes to the roster. I know I sound like a broken record, but the team can’t continually run out five or six right-handed bats – who all have exactly the same weaknesses – against other teams’ right-handed starters. It’s just offensive suicide.
Beltre will hit eventually, and there’s nothing the organization can really do about it if he doesn’t anyway. Gutierrez has been one of the shining beacons of hope in the first month of the season. But the Betancourt-Lopez-Johjima/Johnson grouping are both a huge problem and one that is conceivably addressable.
Yuni needs a day off or five. Here’s his second at-bat against Padilla yesterday:
I don’t care that Ronny Cedeno isn’t the long term answer at shortstop – that’s the kind of approach that has to earn Yuni a day on the bench and a lecture about being an idiot at the plate. He’s the easiest out in baseball. If you can’t fix him, you at least don’t have to play him every day.
Unfortunately, finding a left-handed hitting shortstop is hard. Finding one that would be available in trade right now is almost impossible. The team is basically stuck with a right-handed bat, be it Yuni or Cedeno, at the SS spot.
That leaves second base and catcher. It’s a lot easier to find a left-handed hitting second baseman, and there are some that should be available. Adam Kennedy is hanging out in Triple-A, hitting .295/.382/.462 while waiting for about 45 people to get injured so he can join the Rays. The Braves could probably be talked out of Kelly Johnson, given the right offer. The D’Backs season is basically over, so Felipe Lopez will be available in the not-too-distant future. There are options here.
The team should not be married to Jose Lopez. He’s not that good. He hits lefties decently enough, but his approach at the plate is still miserable and his power is average at best. He’s a +1 to +2 win player whose potential is mostly a myth, and he’s a terrible fit for this roster. Swapping out Lopez in order to get a LH bat in the line-up at second base should absolutely be on the table.
But, there are reasons why this might not be the best time to trade Lopez. The timing of it is tough to pull off, no doubt. It wouldn’t be the easiest thing to do, and the safer route is to let him keep playing and hope he starts hitting some line drives pretty soon.
That leaves the catcher spot. Kenji’s not going anywhere with his contract, but Rob Johnson… he just isn’t a major league player. I know the team loves his personality and the way he interacts with the pitching staff, but at some point, they have to view this rationally, not emotionally. The staff isn’t performing any better with him behind the plate than they are with Kenji. He’s not good at blocking balls in the dirt or throwing out runners.
And he’s one of the worst hitting position players in major league baseball. He has no power, a lousy approach at the plate, and oh yea, he’s right-handed. He’s better than his .216/.241/.314 line so far, but not that much better. He’s an offensive black hole on a team that can’t afford any more of those.
I don’t want to drag out the Jeff Clement argument any more than we have to. I don’t think Clement’s a major league catcher long term either. Pragmatically, we probably need to view him more as a 1B/DH prospect or trade bait than any kind of catcher-of-the-future. That said, he’s somewhat capable of squatting behind the plate and receiving pitches while also stepping to the plate in the left-handed batters box and working some counts. He’s struggled pretty badly in Tacoma since he became a new father (he’s not sleeping much at home, so don’t be surprised that he’s playing better on road trips), but his slumps still dwarf the offensive production of Rob Johnson.
If the team isn’t willing to make a move at second base yet, or thinks they need to give Lopez some more time to get out of his funk, then they are forced to consider swapping out Clement and Johnson, regardless of how much they like Johnson’s work with pitchers and think Clement had a bad spring. If the team wants to try to win baseball games this year, they can’t let sentiment get in the way of logic too often – the margin for error isn’t big enough.
The first 25 games, the team was a nice story. If they want to continue to be a nice story for the rest of the summer, changes are needed. Otherwise, we’re still playing for 2010, and we might as well start letting the world know that Bedard, Washburn, and Beltre will be available in the summer.
The M’s are getting pretty close to decision time. If they’re going to try to sneak out a division title, then they have to do some things to make it more likely. If they’re going to stick with the roster they have, then we’re probably sellers in July.
Roster Stuff
Garrett Olson was scratched from his scheduled start tonight and will join the team in Kansas City tomorrow. Kelley looks DL bound, but even if he’s okay, Stark isn’t long for the major league roster, so there’s a spot in the pen opening up.
The thing to watch is how this will affect the Silva/Vargas decision after tomorrow’s game, though. With Kelley being swapped out for Olson, Wak might be more inclined to shift Silva to the pen to fill a RH reliever role and let Vargas take his spot in the rotation. Otherwise, you’re shifting a lot of people around to try to make Olson fit into Kelley’s roster spot, and since both he and Vargas are seen as LH multi-inning guys, having both in the same pen is a bit redundant.
In other words, don’t be surprised if Silva ends up in the bullpen even if he isn’t a total disaster tomorrow.
Game 27, Rangers at Mariners
Matinee! Padilla vs Erik “The Interview” Bedard! 1:40pm! And my afternoon schedule has a bunch of meetings! Yay!
Dave adds: You know how I keep harping on the roster being too right-handed and how it’s costing us wins?
Padilla, career vs RHB: .241/.300/.370
Padilla, career vs LHB: .299/.381/.484
The Mariners are starting seven right-handed bats and two left-handed bats today.
Yea.
You Gotta Take An Aspirin With These Guys
The Mariners have played 26 games so far. 12 of them, or 46% of the total, have been decided by one run, including the last four in a row. One run games are, essentially, a coinflip. A bad call, a lucky bounce, a tricky hop – these are the things that decide who wins one run games. The outcomes of those games don’t really prove anything. If you play too many of them, that just means you aren’t good enough to blow out your opponent and you have some areas to improve upon.
I know it’s tempting to look at the loss last night and the loss on Saturday as blown opportunities. They’re games we probably should have won. But likewise, we had no business winning the games on Friday or Sunday, and we really have no business being 3-2 in games started by Carlos Silva. That’s just how baseball works, though. You’ll win some you shouldn’t and lose some that you feel like were right there for the taking, but if you’re a really good team, you’ll win a lot more blowouts than you lose and the one run games won’t matter all that much.
I know it’s tempting to draw conclusions about the character/mental strength/will to win after a bunch of close games, but hopefully the last four days have illustrated the reality of baseball – the winner of one run games often has little to do with the moral fiber of the guys on the field, and a lot more to do with random chance.
Game 26, Rangers at M’s
Happy Felix Day!
Millwood vs Hernandez, 7:10 pm.
Ichiro, RF
Not Gutierrez, LF
Sweeney, DH
Branyan, 1B
Beltre, 3B
Lopez, 2B
Johjima, C
Gutierrez, CF
Betancourt, SS
Junior has an “inflamed colon”, so he’s out for the game. Sweeney steps in at DH, and Beltre and Branyan flip-flop spots in order to keep a little more L-R-L balance in the middle of the order. I’d bet they’ll switch back once Junior is healthy enough to play again.
Other than that, pretty standard line-up. Remember when Wak was trying to keep everyone guessing with his line-up of the day? He’s basically settled on a generic order at this point. Oh well.
These games feel more important than your normal May match-up against the team that is, probably the worst in the division. Whether this team is “for real” or not, the further they can distance themselves from the rest of the division as early as possible, the better, because there’s a bar that this team needs to be above come July in order to avoid trading away Bedard-Beltre-Washburn. Wins in April and May actually matter more to this team than wins in August and September, because there’s a bonus or penalty that will be enforced on the roster come the summer depending on the team’s win-loss record.
Given that, and with Felix and Bedard pitching the next two days, the M’s have a chance to get a 4+ game cushion over everyone else in the division. That might not sound like a lot, but given the mediocrity of the other three teams in the AL West, a 4 or 5 game lead in May means that you’re almost certainly within a game or two of first place come July 31st. Worst case scenario, you have a melt down and lose 6-8 games in the standings in two months. If you have a 5 game lead over the other three teams, that melt down still probably leaves you in second place and a single series away from retaking the lead.
17-10 going into Wednesday’s games against Kansas City will feel a lot different than 15-12. I know, it’s just May, but these are pretty big games for the M’s. Let’s hope we get Good Felix and Good Bedard and spend Wednesday trying to figure out which prospects we might be willing to part with this summer in order to upgrade the roster.
I Have Come To Praise Franklin Gutierrez
Coming into the season, we knew Gutierrez could play defense. After the Putz trade was announced, we spent thousands of words telling anyone who would listen that the Mariners just acquired Mike Cameron-lite, an elite defensive center fielder who would more than make up for his offensive shortcomings with spectacular defense and the results would be manifest in improved results for the pitchers.
That’s all been true, and obvious to anyone who watched the games. If you haven’t figured out by now that Gutierrez is one of the best defensive players in baseball, I don’t know what to tell you. If you haven’t realized that defense matters and the three centerfielders plan can yield positive results, you might want to start following basketball or something.
But I’m not here to talk about Franklin Gutierrez’s defense. I’m here to praise the man’s offense, and beg for him to be reinserted into the #2 slot in the batting order.
Forget the results for a second. Gutierrez had a good weekend, and his seasonal line is now above average for a hitter. Obviously, if he could keep that up, it would be the best mark of his career to date. But it’s easy to talk up a guy’s offense after a good week early in the season inflates his season totals. Let’s talk about how Gutierrez is approaching each at-bat.
On a team full of hackers, Gutierrez stands out as an oasis in the desert. His swing percentage for 2009 is 37.6%, second lowest on the team (only Endy Chavez swings less at 36.9%). Lopez, Beltre, and Betancourt swing about 55% of the time. That 18% difference is what enables Gutierrez to work the count, get into situations where he can sit on a fastball, and make the opposing pitcher work. He hasn’t drawn 10 walks so far by accident. Pitchers aren’t scared of Gutierrez, but he’s making them throw strikes. Not just one strike, but multiple strikes in every at-bat. If you aren’t around the plate, you’re going to throw Gutierrez a lot of pitches before you end up putting him on base.
Gutierrez and Betancourt have seen the same amount of balls and strikes this season – 51.8% of the pitches thrown to Gutierrez have been in the zone, compared with 52% to Betancourt. Gutierrez has 10 walks and is seeing 4.00 pitches per plate appearance, while Yuni has yet to walk and is seeing 3.31 pitches per plate appearance. That’s all approach. That’s why Gutierrez has made 7 less outs despite having a batting average 20 points lower, and those extra outs are extremely valuable.
Wakamatsu began the season with Gutierrez in the #2 spot, and he had the right idea – he’s the perfect hitter for that slot on this team. With Ichiro leading off, you want a patient hitter in the #2 spot in order to give him an opportunity to steal bases. With Griffey hitting 3rd against RHP, you want a guy in the #2 spot who can hit LHPs, in order to minimize the opponents ability to get easy platoon advantages late in games. Managers also like a #2 guy who can bunt, and since it’s the spot that will get the second most plate appearances on the team, you’d like the guy to be a competent hitter.
Patient approach? Whacks lefties? Good bunter? Decent hitter? Check, check, check, and check.
Gutierrez is perfect for the #2 spot in the order against both RHPs and LHPs. Against RHPs, you have 1/3/5 LHBs, so having Gutierrez’s ability to hit LHPs will deter opposing managers from bringing in a LOOGY to go after the top of the order. Against LHPs, he’s one of the better hitters on the team, and you want his patience and gap power driving the ball as often as possible.
Endy Chavez had a nice start to the season, but he’s a #9 hitter, and the fact that he’s left-handed makes him an even worse fit for the #2 spot between Ichiro and Griffey.
Franklin Gutierrez has earned his way back up to the top of the line-up. With the way he’s approaching his plate appearances, he’s earned the reward. Move him back up, Wak.
Minor League Wrap (4/27-5/3/09)
This rundown is also slightly clipped, but that should be the last of the time-abbreviated ones for a while. It’s only missing a few of the stories and the happenings in general, but the ground/fly ratios make their triumphant return. I’d say just keeping track of all the transactions for this week gave me more than enough to talk about.
To the jump!
Read more
Woooooooooooo
I heart Jason Vargas.
Game 25, A’s at M’s
Outman v Jakubauskas.
Ichiro, RF
Lopez, 2B
Sweeney, DH
Beltre, 3B
Branyan, 1B
Balentien, LF
Johjima, C
Gutierrez, CF
Betancourt, SS
This is probably something close to the best line-up the M’s can run out there. They’re going to hit LHPs better than RHPs just due to the nature of the roster, but this gives us the added boost of having Lopez higher in the order, Balentien instead of Chavez, and Johjima instead of Johnson. I wouldn’t be surprised if the M’s put up 6+ runs today. Outman’s an extreme flyball guy facing a line-up of lefty mashers. This could/should be fun.
Follow along with Daryl Cousins’ notoriously small strike zone below.
Game 24, A’s at M’s
Cahill v Washburn. 6:10, FSN. Washburn’s gets Rob Johnson, as Johjima gets the night off. If he has a good night we’ll see if he can resist making comments about Johnson’s good communication skills or the connection between them.
Other news: as Dave speculated, Morrow was unavailable and is now on the DL, though Morrow seems to dispute whether he could have gone or not. It’s good to see the team be cautious with their pitchers. The Times has both sides.
Denny Stark got the call up from Tacoma.