Exactly what this team needs
Five teams have shown interest in future Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr., his longtime agent Brian Goldberg said.
…another gimpy, injury-hiding player
Griffey’s performance was compromised last season due to a knee injury he hid for most of the year. Griffey had his left knee drained three times, according to Goldberg, and it was finally repaired surgically three days after the season. He hit only three home runs in 41 games after going to the White Sox, but his power may have been affected by his knee issue.
Griffey suffered the injury early in the season with the Reds when he tripped over a misplaced foot locker in the Reds’ clubhouse.
I cannot fathom why Goldberg thinks that revealing that Griffey destroyed his knee tripping on something — which he then apparently concealed for the rest of the season, badly hurting his team — helps demand. Though maybe it’s a bid to take over the mantle of leadership shown by our own gimpy, injury-hiding left-fielder and clubhouse leader Ibanez.
This guy works for the Mariners
If you have a subscription, run over and check out this Baseball Prospectus interview with Tony Blengino. Loooooot of great stuff. If you’re looking for interesting stuff to talk about at our event next week, this is a gold mine.
News on what they’re doing building a stat analysis organization (Tom Tango’s consulting!)
Here’s my favorite quote
But we want independent opinions, and we want people in our office to disagree. We want some degree of conflict. If everyone agrees, and says the same thing about each transaction, you have too homogenous of a group together. You need to have people coming at issues from different angles, and I think that we’re in the process, in the short time we’ve been together, of having that.
This one is just as good, though:
DL: Among established defensive metrics, which do you feel are most meaningful?
TB: I like the Hardball Times revised zone ratings [RZR] and out of zone plays [OOZ]. I think you can take their statistics and couch them a certain way, and get some really good indicators. There are a lot of other ones out there as well, like the Plus/Minus and the UZR, and I think they all have value. I think it all comes down to being able to come up with a measure where you have a baseline that you’re comparing to, and I think that with the Hardball Times metrics you can come up with a baseline fairly easily and know what you’re talking about, whether a guy is above or below average at a certain position, and watch trends over the years fairly easily. So I think that there is value in a lot of the different metrics, and I think they’re being advanced on an annual basis. It comes down to the user and what he’s most comfortable working with, and that he has a logical premise that his analysis is based on.
It’s a great in-depth interview, where you really get a sense of the team’s direction. It’s also a really good example of how asking quality questions can get good answers.
Also, he talks about how defense is undervalued right now, how… look, there’s like forty pages of goodness here, and it was unthinkable someone like this would be in the organization a year ago.
A week from now, he’ll be answering your questions at the USSM/LL event. You’re going to want to be there.
The 2008 USSM Music Post
Hopefully nothing happens today. In one of our long-standing traditions, during the off-season we take a break from our usual steady diet of self-importance, banning people who don’t agree with us, and conspiring with the Council on Foreign Relations to run the world to throw out random non-Mariners posts and, when the whim strikes us, the USSM Endorsements.
Here’s our traditional music post. Here’s the process of the annual list: I draft something with my top impressions. Then I go into iTunes and check the play count for 2008 albums. Did I really listen to those all that much? Were there early-year CDs unfairly being discounted?
And this year I only share one with John Richards’ list! Yeah, take that, Jim Thomsen and your accusations of KEXP worship!
Marnie Stern, This Is It and I Am It and You Are It and So Is That and He Is It and She Is It and It Is It and That Is That
No Age, Nouns
Hold Steady, Stay Positive
Beastie Boys, the Mix Up
Frightened Rabbit, Midnight Organ Fight
Sigur Ros, Med Sud I Eyrum Vid Spilum Endalaust
Breeders, Mountain Battles
Raveonettes, Lust Lust Lust
This Will Destroy You, This Will Destroy You
The Notwist, The Devil, You + Me
Black Keys, Attack and Release
Much, much more discussion follows.
Marnie Stern, This Is It and I Am It and You Are It and So Is That and He Is It and She Is It and It Is It and That Is That
I love this CD so much, and yet I’m almost at a loss as to why. I wrote it up on Hate Life, Will Travel. It’s so good, far beyond any reasonable expectation. I find myself listening to it catching the bus in the morning, and then later in the day find myself humming one of the songs. Marnie rocks out. And the songs are bouncy and dark and peppy and ponderous, and she shreds the guitar, and I love it. I’m strapped for cash but you could tell me she was playing a show tomorrow and I’d sell the monitor I’m writing this on to go there. So, so tasty.
No Age, Nouns
Rock out. These guys are great. I have a huge soft spot in my heart for small, simple bands that do something interesting. And Sub Pop. It’s a second-listen record, in that the first time you hear it you may well be put off by the lo-fi sound. I did. And I didn’t come back to it for a while. When I did, though, I thought “holy crap, this is great” because it was.
Hold Steady, Stay Positive
Lot of rock on this list. This is a great album. I practically wore the electrons through on this one.
Beastie Boys, the Mix Up
A whole different thing. I put this on at every event I hosted this year after it came out, and the reaction each time was the same: I’d see people start to bob their heads, and then they’d start smiling, and smiling widely. It’s like The In Sound From Way Out in a way, and back when I worked somewhere I could put music on in the store, I played that one every day I was on the counter until one of my co-workers scratched it into coaster land.
It’s so good to listen to, though, and again, as party music — it’ll make people happy and everyone will catch the beat.
Frightened Rabbit, Midnight Organ Fight
Occupying the mind-space The National held last year. That’ll make sense to some of you. Those crazy Scots.
Sigur Ros, Med Sud I Eyrum Vid Spilum Endalaust
I’m such a hipster. Yes! I listen to a crazy soaring Icelandic band that sings nonsense lyrics. There!
That said, this is probably as accessible as Sigur Ros gets.
Breeders, Mountain Battles
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee’re gooooooooooooooooooooooonna rise.
I listened to this the second time as a kind of charity hat-tip to Kim Deal, and I liked it enough to listen to it again, and again…
Raveonettes, Lust Lust Lust
It’s almost Lush-esque shoegaze, in its way, except not.
This Will Destroy You, This Will Destroy You
I didn’t like the new Mogwai album, but fortunately I got this too, and my “huge epic super-complicated post-rock rock” of the year.
The Notwist, The Devil, You + Me
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. Quality.
Black Keys, Attack and Release
Two guys, a guitar, and a drum, and the result is compelling, intimate music.
Also: what a year for Sub Pop. Holy crap. No Age, Fleet Foxes, the Flight of the Conchords album, Grand Archives, The Helio Sequence… if Sub Pop had a subscription option where they just sent me the new releases as they rolled off the CD press, I would probably have to sign up.
There’s a whole massive batch of bands (Bon Iver, Fleet Foxes, etc) that put out personal, quiet albums I’m just catching up on. TV on the Radio has a CD I’ve only listened to twice. It’s supposed to be stunning, but I haven’t gotten there yet.
What else? I liked the new UNKLE, and that attracted almost no notice. Does the Transmissionary Six CD count? Q-Tip’s new one is good, and.. I just went into iTunes and counted the 2008-year albums and I have over a hundred. Yeah. 4.2 days of continuous music. eMusic: blessing and curse.
Conor’s half-assed list
Ok, well this won’t be nearly as exciting as Derek’s because I sucked at new music this year. When I put together my preliminary list, most of the albums actually came out in 2007. Unfortunately, music was one of the things trimmed down for me as an unpaid intern…partly because I don’t have as much money and because I’m away from my friends and don’t get as many recommendations. This is just a long way of confessing that I only have a top 5 this year. But I did just subscribe to eMusic last month and got a bunch of iTunes gift cards for Christmas, so next year looks promising!
Los Campesinos!, We Are Beautiful, We Are Doomed
Fleet Foxes, s/t
Dillinger Four, Civil War
Kay Kay and His Weathered Underground, s/t
Atmosphere, When Life Gives You Lemons, You Paint That Shit Gold
Obviously there was a TON of stuff that I wanted to hear this year but just didn’t, so most of my iTunes gift cards will be used to catch up on 2008 stuff. Next year I’m really looking forward to new albums by Green Day, New Found Glory (on Epitaph!), NOFX, and Two Tongues (Saves The Day + Say Anything!)
He’s rested, he’s ready…
Left-handed power, bargain price, willing to accept a one-year deal, West Coast… Barry Bonds underwent hip surgery to ensure he’s ready for the 2009 season!
What?
Read more
Jan 10 Feed Update: one week left and seats are going fast
(whew!)
I believe I’m caught up on payments. If you wanted to arrange to avoid PayPal and emailed us, you should have heard from me. If you heard from Dave and not me (specifically, the “you’re on the alternate payment list” email) drop me a line. I don’t want anyone to be left off.
That becomes important because in a couple of days since announcing the details we’re just shy of half full. In fact I will bet that when I process the next batch tomorrow afternoon we’ll get to two-thirds. Dave’s been skeptical about whether we can fill a room this size, but I have faith.
This is going to be a barn-burner. I’m so excited.
Dave’s promotional post follows
—
We told you hold the date – now we tell you why. On Saturday, January 10th, we’re hosting the latest USSM/LL event. The guests for the afternoon are Mariners Asst. GM Tony Blengino and Mariners scouting director Tom McNamara. These are the two guys that Zduriencik brought over from Milwaukee – Blengino is the guy behind the Department of Baseball Research that is being established and the one pushing the organization into the 21st century of baseball analysis. McNamara is the top scout in the organization, and will be running the amateur draft this summer. They’re both going to be a lot of fun to talk to.
The event is at the downtown Seattle Central Library from 1:30 to 5:30 on Saturday, January 10th. We won’t be providing food, so we’ve lowered the price to $10, which just goes to defray the costs of the room rental. We’re trying to improve the whole registration/payment process for these things, so if you want to attend, click on the button below and donate $10.
Do not click the anonymous button, as we need your name to show up on the list of donaters -that will be the list we use at the door to let people in. If you’re paying for multiple people, send an email to the USSM account with the names of the people you’re bringing so that we can make sure everyone is on the list. And if you’re totally anti-paypal, send us an email too and we’ll work something out.
But, yea, January 10th, four hours of baseball talk with Derek, the LL gang, and two of the big wigs in the M’s new front office. It’s going to be a lot of fun, so I encourage you guys to go.
Brian Fuentes signs with the Angels
Two year deal, replaces Rodriguez as closer, causing me to roll my eyes about bullpen roles.
Fun fact: Fuentes, former Mariner, went to the Rockies in Cirillo trade and became the only really successful member of that deal (he went along with Jose Paniagua and Denny Stark‘s toxic contract).
Further fun story: Fuentes was one of the biggest surprises and misses in my baseball writing career. I didn’t think Fuentes was going to ever put it together, and was thinking about leaving him out of that year’s Baseball Prospectus. He’d been in the system for five years, and looked to me like maybe he’d be back-end bullpen material at best, and I had a lot of more important players to cover. Talking to Tacoma Rainiers broadcaster Mike Curto in researching the Baseball Prospectus chapter, he said “I don’t know about that, he’s got that slider, he could be a lefty specialist right now.”
Then Keith Law gave me a stern talking-to on the authors list about leaving him out.
Fuentes has turned that motion and that slider into a nice little career and gone to the All-Star game three times.
On the other hand, as Ivan likes to remind me, I once thought Brian Raabe was the future of the M’s infield, so I’ve got that going for me too.
A Theoretical Roster
To build on the post I did the other day, here’s a slightly tweaked roster that involves adding two non-major players that would push this team into the contending-is-a-real-possibility range. The numbers are based on the CHONE projections for 2009, and I projected the playing time.
As you probably noticed, the two additions are Nick Johnson and Alfredo Amezaga. They’re projected to combine for 600 PA, so I’m not penciling either of them in as full time players, but their impact on the roster could still be pretty dramatic.
Despite all of his injury issues, Nick Johnson is a remarkably productive player when he’s on the field. His CHONE projection has him at +25 runs per 150 games, or about +4 runs per 100 PA. Even with his can’t-stay-healthy, can’t-be-trusted track record, Johnson doesn’t need to play much to help the team. Washington simply isn’t going to demand the moon for one year of Nick Johnson, considering that he’s owed $5 million and his health is a pretty big question mark.
Amezaga essentially replaces Bloomquist on the roster, and is a pretty comparable hitter and baserunner. However, he’s a switch-hitter and a tremendous defensive player, which gives the team a legitimate defensive middle infielder. Amezaga is arb. eligible, which means he’s getting expensive for the Marlins, and could be acquired without giving up a key piece of the future.
That group of position players projects out to about a 720 run offense. Considering the run prevention that the defense and pitching staff should be capable of, that’s a ~.500ish team with real upside.
Nick Johnson and Alfredo Amezaga would add about $6 or $7 million to the payroll. Based on 300 PA apiece, they’d be worth about 3 wins combined. If Johnson stays healthy, that could easily be 5 wins. And, you don’t have to mortgage the farm to get either one.
These are the kinds of moves that I’d like to see the M’s make. You add a legitimate LH bat who gets on base and a great infield glove, give the team a shot at contention in 2009, and don’t set the organization’s build-with-youth plan back much at all. This team simply doesn’t have to be terrible in 2009. There are legitimate options to win and build for the future at the same time.
Here’s to hoping the M’s can pull it off.
January 10th USSM Event
We told you hold the date – now we tell you why. On Saturday, January 10th, we’re hosting the latest USSM/LL event. The guests for the afternoon are Mariners Asst. GM Tony Blengino and Mariners scouting director Tom McNamara. These are the two guys that Zduriencik brought over from Milwaukee – Blengino is the guy behind the Department of Baseball Research that is being established and the one pushing the organization into the 21st century of baseball analysis. McNamara is the top scout in the organization, and will be running the amateur draft this summer. They’re both going to be a lot of fun to talk to.
The event is at the downtown Seattle Central Library from 1:30 to 5:30 on Saturday, January 10th. We won’t be providing food, so we’ve lowered the price to $10, which just goes to defray the costs of the room rental. We’re trying to improve the whole registration/payment process for these things, so if you want to attend, click on the button below and donate $10.
Do not click the anonymous button, as we need your name to show up on the list of donaters -that will be the list we use at the door to let people in. If you’re paying for multiple people, send an email to the USSM account with the names of the people you’re bringing so that we can make sure everyone is on the list. And if you’re totally anti-paypal, send us an email too and we’ll work something out.
But, yea, January 10th, four hours of baseball talk with Derek, the LL gang, and two of the big wigs in the M’s new front office. It’s going to be a lot of fun, so I encourage you guys to go.
A Team Worth Gambling On?
With the current roster, I have the M’s pegged as something like a 78 win team. Obviously, there are a lot of variables in there – can Clement catch regularly, does Bedard stay healthy, is Heilman able to close, how do Balentien/Chavez split time in left, and so on – that could go either way, so perhaps it’s more accurate to say that I think this team is likely to win somewhere between 72 and 84 games if there are no changes to the roster between now and the end of the year.
I think most people are expecting something in that 72-78 range, which is certainly possible, given the uncertainties at so many positions. However, if I’m right about the mean level of talent, that means that 84 wins is just as likely as 72 (probably a bit more likely, actually, as my 78 win estimate includes a good deal of pessimism about Clement/Balentien/Lopez, and the upside is higher than the downside with those three), and the A.L. West isn’t very good right now.
After losing Teixeira and K-Rod, I have the Angels at something like 85 wins. The A’s check in at 83 wins, and the Rangers at 82. Again, these are all preliminary estimates based on non-finalized rosters, but since we’re still in the middle of the off season, this is what we go off of.
So, here’s a question – what are the odds of this roster winning 86 or more games in 2009? Based on binomial distribution, a 78 win team (.481 win%) would win 86+ out of 162 games about 9% of the time. Some good bounces here or there, a couple close wins that the team might not have deserved, and all of the sudden a true talent 78 win club has an 86-76 record. Considering the relative weakness of the division, we’d essentially be saying that the M’s have about a 1 in 11 chance of contending for the AL West, given current rosters.
But, let’s say the team made a little bit of a splash and went out and signed a +3 win free agent – for the sake of argument, we’ll call that guy Milton Bradley – and we adjusted our projection upwards to factor in the new guy, giving us an 81 win true talent team. The odds of an 81 win team winning 86+ games out of 162 – 19%.
In other words, if I’m right about the current talent levels of the respective teams in the division, the Mariners’ chances of contending for the division title would roughly double. Is that something the organization should be interested in? Absolutely, because the payoff for making the playoffs is pretty substantial. For instance, let’s just use a couple hypothetical scenarios here.
Current Roster
72 to 85 wins – 91%, net loss of $5 million
86 to 95 wins – 9%, net gain of $25 million
Expected Value of Current Roster: -$2.25 million
Roster +3 Win Player
72 to 85 wins – 81%, net loss of $6 million
86 to 95 wins – 19%, net gain of $25 million
Expected Value of Roster + 3 Win Player: -0.11 million
if the team could add a three win player without a substantial hit to their payroll (it’s doable, but would probably require giving up a decent prospect to move some dead weight salary – Washburn is the obvious candidate), the Mariners could get themselves into a position where the odds of a playoff berth become a bit more realistic, and the upside of that kind of positive year far outweighs the economic downside of adding a multiyear contract to the books.
It’s not a sure thing that the M’s should certainly go for, as there’s lots of other variables to consider. This is an extremely rudimentary analysis, but simply serves to illustrate the point that there’s a legitimate option for the organization to view the weakened division as an opportunity to grab an unexpected playoff spot and revitalize interest in the on field product. If there’s a real chance for them to add a +3 win player to the roster without destroying the farm system or getting into a horrible bidding war, it could have a real, tangible payoff for the franchise.
It’s worth looking at, and I hope Zduriencik and company are doing just that.
Randy Johnson signs with the Giants
This means there’s a reasonable chance he’ll be starting against the M’s here in Seattle in one of the May 22-24th games.
Ooooh boy.