The Good, The Bad & The Ugly
Dave and I will be putting together a Future Forty update when he gets back from his honeymoon but, in the meantime, let’s take a look at some of the highlights and lowlights for the M’s minor-league system this season..
The Good…
"Greg Halman 03" by t.halterman, cc-licensed
Greg HalmanÂ
Halman had the best season of any of the team’s top prospects. After struggling with a promotion to Wisconsin last year, Halman was demoted to Everett. He hit there, but it was a repeat year for the 19-year-old. This year, the Mariners had him start the season in the High-A California League, which can do wonders for a hitter’s confidence. Halman didn’t go nuts, but hit a respectable .268/.320/.572 before a mid-season promotion to Double-A West Tenn., where he continued to hit and posted a .277/.332/.481 line. Halman is a great athlete that has a nice combination of power and speed, as evidenced by his 29 home runs and 31 stolen bases this season. However, he’s still very raw and needs to learn to be more selective at the plate. The regime change could slow the M’s aggressive promotion schedule, which I think would be a good thing for Halman. That being said, it was a great year for the Dutch native and he was one of the M’s assigned to the Arizona Fall League.
10/5 playoff discussion thread
Something nutty going on over at ESPN…
M’s say they won’t raise ticket prices next year … sort of
From Hickey in today’s PI. Kind of a no-brainer considering the team’s performance and the state of the economy. However…
One area where the Mariners thought their 2008 ticket plans did well were the seven games (against the Red Sox and Yankees) designated as “premium games.” The tickets for those games cost more and still sold well despite the premium price tag.
“The seven premium games worked well,” Armstrong said. “We’re thinking of expanding that.”
Any bets on what other teams will be considered premium competition next year? Angels? The arch-nemesis Padres? Rays?!?!
FWIW, here’s how the M’s stacked up against all other teams in terms of ticket prices in 2008.
Mariner GM Handicapping for Saturday, 10/4
A semi-random gauge of who’s likely to get the job. Based on current press coverage, rumors, substantiated and un, educated guesses, and so on. We claim no insight into front office machinations. Please, no wagering.
For names and brief resumes, check our potential GM candidates post.
| Who (links) | Percent |
| Hahn (1) | 29% |
| LaCava (1, 2) | 29% |
| Ng (1, 2) | 15% |
| Woodfork | 11% |
| Antonetti (1) | 4% |
| Pelekoudas | 2% |
| Bulk candidates | |
| Sitting GM | 1% |
| Field | 10% |
“Sitting GM” is someone who currently has a GM job: Kevin Towers, for instance. “Field” is everyone not listed.
Field includes: Avila, DiPoto, Evans, Hinch, Hoyer, Evans, Forst, Jennings, White.
Stepping Away
Hey all,
Just wanted to let you know that I’m not going to be around the blog for the next little while – I’m getting married tomorrow, so I’ll be spending next week with my beautiful new bride on our honeymoon. Needless to say, her idea of a romantic week away does not involve me writing about baseball.
Be nice to Conor in my absence.
Go Rays.
The dream pre-game
During the season I do a lot of complaining about the broadcasts, so in the spirit of constructive criticism I wanted to offer what they could do to make it interesting and useful. Instead of lame “keys to the game” that feature amazingly obvious points (“score early!” “prevent the Angels from scoring!”) how can they offer genuine insight?
Make the game-specific episodes include game-specific previews. The pre-game offers a perfect opportunity to talk about things in a longer form than can be done in a game and make the game itself more interesting.
Preview both pitchers, focusing on the opposing starter we’re less familiar with. What do they like to throw to left and right handed hitters? What do those pitches look like? Show video — FSN has access to a massive video library they can slice and dice as they want. One of the things I hear a lot is “how do I recognize different pitches?” and the pre-game offers a chance to educate people on what different pitches thrown by different pitchers look like.
And what does the pitcher do well? When they struggle, what are they doing wrong? And show video!
An hour before the game, when lineups are known, if there’s anything interesting going on, talk about that. Who’s out, and who’s in that we haven’t seen (show video!)? Who’s being rested, who’s injured, and who might we see in relief or pinch-hitting duties — and who’s not available because they’ve pitched two days in a row, or are nursing a sore hamstring?
There’s also a whole level of series-level analysis that can be done and isn’t. What does the opposing team do well, and what do they stink at? Compared to every other team, and the Mariners, what do they do differently? Who’s stealing on the roster, and how fast are they? How do you try and get their best hitter out (video!) and what defensive positioning changes are used against which hitters (video!)?
There could be two major blocks to doing this kind of a program:
– It’s harder and more expensive. It requires someone to work out all of that stuff, pull video, and edit together profiles. It is comparitively easy to do the current version: one camera, a desk, and Bill blathering. Cut to a pre-recorded segment of Sims on-field. Cut to an interview with someone.
– It may well be that as long as the current pre-game’s drawing a lot of fans, especially compared to other teams, they’ll be convinced that it’s doing something right, and be reluctant to make any change. Maybe fans don’t want to be educated, and they don’t care about in the matchups!
Still — I end up watching every M’s broadcast for road games, and every time I tune in early and watch the pre-game, I feel disappointed and frustrated at the wasted opportunity.
Mariner GM Handicapping for Friday, 10/3
A semi-random gauge of who’s likely to get the job. Based on current press coverage, rumors, substantiated and un, educated guesses, and so on. We claim no insight into front office machinations. Please, no wagering.
For names and brief resumes, check our potential GM candidates post.
| Who (links) | Percent |
| Hahn (1) | 29% |
| LaCava (1, 2) | 29% |
| Ng (1, 2) | 15% |
| Woodfork | 10% |
| DiPoto/Hinch/Hoyer | 2% |
| Antonetti (1) | 1% |
| Avila | 1% |
| Evans | 1% |
| Forst | 1% |
| Dan Jennings | 1% |
| Pelekoudas | 1% |
| White | 1% |
| Bulk candidates | |
| Sitting GM | 3% |
| Field | 5% |
“Sitting GM” is someone who currently has a GM job: Kevin Towers, for instance. “Field” is everyone not listed.
Winning at Losing
Most seasons with 100+ losses since 1977
4:Â Mariners, Royals & Tigers
3:Â Rays, Indians & Blue Jays
2:Â Pirates & Braves
1:Â Mets, Nationals/Expos, Twins, Brewers, Orioles, Giants, Padres, Athletics, Reds, Marlins & Diamondbacks
0:Â Cubs, Rangers, Angels, Phillies, White Sox, Rockies, Cardinals, Astros, Dodgers, Yankees & Red Sox
Most seasons with 90+ losses since 1977
11:Â Mariners & Mets
10:Â Rays
9:Â Pirates, Royals, Braves, Orioles & Tigers
8:Â Nationals/Expos, Cubs, Twins & Brewers
7:Â Indians, Padres, Giants & Rangers
6:Â Athletics, Angels, Phillies & White Sox
5:Â Reds & Blue Jays
4:Â Marlins & Rockies
2:Â Cardinals, Yankees, Dodgers, Astros & Diamondbacks
0:Â Red Sox
Mariner GM Handicapping for Wednesday, 10/1
A semi-random gauge of who’s likely to get the job. Based on current press coverage, rumors, substantiated and un, educated guesses, and so on. We claim no insight into front office machinations. Please, no wagering.
For names and brief resumes, check our potential GM candidates post.
| Who (links) | Percent |
| Hahn (1) | 30% |
| LaCava (1, 2) | 30% |
| Ng (1, 2) | 15% |
| Woodfork | 7% |
| Avila | 3% |
| DiPoto/Hinch/Hoyer | 2% |
| Antonetti (1) | 1% |
| Evans | 1% |
| Forst | 1% |
| Pelekoudas | 1% |
| White | 1% |
| Bulk candidates | |
| Sitting GM | 3% |
| Field | 5% |
“Sitting GM” is someone who currently has a GM job: Kevin Towers, for instance. “Field” is everyone not listed.
Reload: The Offseason Plan To Win in 2009
For years, I’ve been posting suggested offseason plans for the M’s, laying out potential moves they could make to improve the roster and try to build a winning team. This year, however, it’s a little different – the organization doesn’t really know what they’re going to do, since they don’t have a GM, and they seem to be leaning towards a rebuild. So, until we know what the decision on the GM is and what he feels like the team should do with this roster, there needs to be two sets of suggestions. Double the work for me, but hopefully, twice as much fun for you guys.
So, here’s part one – a step by step outline of how the organization could retool this winter and attempt to come back as a contender in 2009. There’s a ton of talent hitting free agency this winter and the M’s already have some pieces in place, so it’s possible, even coming off a disastrous season. Here’s one potential roster that could legitimately contend in the A.L. West next year.
And here are the moves that would create said roster:
Trade Jose Lopez, Wladimir Balentien, and Jarrod Washburn to the Brewers for Corey Hart and Brad Nelson
Sign Rafael Furcal to a 3 year, $40 million contract
Sign Milton Bradley to a 3 year, $36 million contract with a vesting option for a 4th season based on PA
Sign Reed Johnson to a 1 year, $3 million contract.
Sign Jeremy Affeldt to a 1 year, $4 million contract
Fairly simple – one trade, four free agent contracts, and a position change for Betancourt. I have a hard time seeing the Brewers turning down that offer (especially with how badly Hart finished 2008, and the fact that he’s arb. eligible this winter), and the contracts for Furcal and Bradley are calculated risks, offering guaranteed years and significant cash to guys with health questions. As far as make believe rosters, I think this one’s quite a bit more realistic than most of the ones I’ve proffered in the past. It requires the M’s to keep their payroll essentially even with what it was in 2008, but wouldn’t require the new GM to come in and demand to be able to trade prospects off for a win-now fix or for a budget increase to spend on veterans. This roster can be built with the resources readily available from day one.
Why would this team win?
Rough calculations put the offense at about +10 runs above average over the full season. Those projections assume a minimal rebound from Betancourt and Hart’s poor seasons, a slight uptick by Beltre and Ichiro, slightly below average production from Clement and Nelson, and Bradley only being a good hitter, not a great one. There’s certainly room for more in the offense – Hart turns 27 next year, and his power is legitimate, so a slightly better approach could lead to a big step forward. Clement could be quite a bit better than the projection, and Bradley might not regress nearly as far as this suggests.
The defense is also remarkably better. Lopez is essentially replaced by Furcal, a pretty huge upgrade with the glove. Ibanez is replaced by Hart, which is like driving by McDonalds and ending up at Mortons. Betancourt’s less of a problem at second base than at shortstop, and while Nelson/Clement won’t be very good over at first, Morse offers some potential as a solid glove there. Overall, this should be an above average defense, probably by the margin of +10 to +15 runs or so.
The pitching staff benefits from a potentially healthy Bedard, the importation of Affeldt to be the bullpen’s primary lefty, and a better back-end of the rotation with RRS, Morrow, and a version of Carlos Silva that can’t possibly be that bad again. Batista, Dickey, and Feierabend provide rotation depth to make up for the innings gap that the starting five will certainly leave, so there’s eight in house starting pitchers already around. Overall, this pitching staff is, much like the rest of the team, slightly above average. Depending on Bedard’s heatlh and the progression of Morrow and Rowland-Smith, I’ve got them at +10 runs above average, but it could jump to +30 if Bedard can pitch the whole season at peak level.
Put it all together, and you’ve got a team that looks like an 85-87 win team based on talent level. Good enough to be the favorite? No, certainly not, but a huge step back to respectability while simultaneously building to the future. No major prospects are sacrificed – Balentien is essentially replaced by Hart, a better version of the same skillset, and while Lopez is shipped off in favor of the older Furcal, Luis Valbuena gets to hang out in Tacoma and push Betancourt for the 2B job if he doesn’t improve.
The guys around which the franchise should be building are still here, and the new talented veterans give the team time to let their prospects develop while also keeping the fan base on board. The team gets younger and significantly more exciting, and the new additions create an opportunity for a playoff berth if enough things go right – Felix breaks out, Bedard stays healthy, Beltre has another monster contract year, whatever. They’re not the favorites, but they’re within striking distance, and there’s real upside on the roster.
Why would this team lose?
Easy – it’s brittle as hell. Furcal gets a huge contract for sitting four months in 2008. Bradley never plays more than about 75% of the season. Bedard’s coming off shoulder surgery. Morrow and Rowland-Smith enter spring training as starters for the first time in their careers. Those five guys are all major durability question marks, and they’re all being counted on. If more than one bites it, this team isn’t going to win. They have to stay healthy.
But what do you really lose by trying this roster out? Say Bedard doesn’t come back, Furcal’s back is still a problem, Bradley misses a bunch of time due to nagging injuries… they just get replaced by the kids you were going to play if you decided to rebuild before the year started, and you can still shop around guys like Beltre and Putz at the trade deadline if you want prospects in lieu of more draft picks.
Yea, there’s some financial outlay, but none of it is guaranteed beyond where Silva and Johjima’s ugly extensions already take us, so it’s not prolonging the years of bad money on the books. If you go into a full scale rebuild, you’re not winning for 2-3 years anyway, so the money spent on Bradley and Furcal isn’t going to push back your timetable one single day. And if the team bombs while either or both of those guys stay healthy and productive, you have a couple new trade chips to hasten your rebuild.
The team has issues, but there are players available that can address those issues, and the team has the resources to get those guys in uniform. The Mariners don’t have to rebuild – with some good roster management, they can restock the major league roster without sacrificing the future. It doesn’t have to be an either/or, win now or rebuild situation. With an offseason like this, the team could win in 2009 and rebuild at the same time.