The September call-ups, with light commentary
Dave may have some more insightful commentary, but I thought I’d talk about the callups. Several sources, including the broadcast today, report the M’s callups as:
Saturday:
OF-R Mike Morse
OF-R Charleton Jimerson
C-R Rob Johnson
LHP Ryan Feierabend
LHP John Parrish
with RHP Sean White coming off the DL
Then after the Pacific Coast League season ends:
OF-L Jeremy Reed
OF-R Wladimir Balentien
2B-R Nick Green
C-L Jeff Clement
They cleared room on the 40m by moving Oswaldo Navarro, Jake Woods, Rene Rivera, and Mike Wilson off.
Will they get any use, though? On the pitching side, sure. The M’s bullpen, post-callup, would be more left-handed:
LHP Ryan Feierabend
LHP Eric O’Flaherty
LHP John Parrish
LHP Ryan Rowland-Smith
LHP George Sherrill
RHP Sean Green
RHP Brandon Morrow
RHP Putz
RHP Rick White
RHP Sean White
If the starters continue to have short outings, you can see where they’ll get into this really quickly. The addition of Parrish means that the M’s will now have two veteran supposed pitchers. Mmm.
You can also begin throwing darts at who the team’s thinking about giving Horacio Ramirez’s starts too. I’ve got as little insight into this as anyone.
For position players, I agree with Jason Churchill. Barring injury, I think the only guy on that side we might see get some starts is Nick Green. The team’s pretty down on Lopez right now, which reminds me — here’s a comment from Dave Paisley, who started with a moving seven day average of Jose Vidro’s offensive performance:
Continuing from the previous thread with 7 day average OPS, here’s Jose Lopez. His brother died on or just before June 13, or roughly game 60. You do the math. He’s never been the same since, although he had been on a bit of an uptick lately.
Nick’s hitting .337/383/.604 in his time with us in AAA this year, they like his D at second. He’s too old to be a prospect, but right now the organization’s frustrated enough with Lopez that they’re playing Vidro out there, and they have to know that’s a huge defensive hit. Of course, putting Green out at second would mean they have to push Vidro to the bench or somewhere, which could squeeze Jones more. At the least, we’ll hopefully see them be aggressive about putting a defensive sub in for Vidro on days he plays second.
Which reminds me: if they were willing to, you could totally Earl Weaver this. Announce your lineup with 2B Green in a late slot (say, 7 or 8). The M’s get put down in order the first two innings, probably, but when it’s Green’s spot you PH Vidro for him, leave Vidro in at second, and then pull Vidro immediately after one of his at-bats to get Jose Lopez or Bloomquist in for defense. But that’s just me. I’d be such an annoying manager trying to squeeze those kind of matchups (and go ahead: tell me that’s not realistic or possible in today’s game, even if Weaver did stuff like that)
Morse might get some pinch-hitting chances, though it’s hard to see how, since the team’s already reluctant to platoon players like Raul who seem to cry out for it. Morse’s defense makes you want to use-and-dispose, though. Balentien taking the field wouldn’t be the same disaster.
Which reminds me: Dave rightly smacked me for saying both Jones and Balentien were ready, when they’re pretty far apart in how they’d do if you played them both, and he’s right. Even if you believe the Balentien-made-the-jump contingent, he’s not yet the offensive talent Jones is.
Reed. The last time we saw him steam was pouring out of his ears after he stormed out of spring training when they told him of his demotion.
The catching duo’s nice to have around, but with Johjima/Burke, it’s hard to see where they would make any impact.
Anatomy of a losing streak
No real analysis required, so here’s some numbers instead. During the losing streak:
Offense: 216 PA, .262/.298/.332, .630 OPS, 19 runs scored (3.16 Runs per game)
Ichiro:.238/.273/.333
Vidro: .250/.308/.292 (.278/.328/.389 over 61 PA in his last 13 games – is he still on fire?)
Guillen: .208/.240/.250
Ibanez: .273/.360/.273
Beltre: .304/.320/.435
Sexson: .167/.214/.167
Johjima: .500/.500/.550 (9 singles, 1 double, no walks in 20 PA)
Lopez: .286/.286/.357
Betancourt: .222/.222/.333
Johjima is the only guy who hit at all the last six games, and even that was all singles. The two through six middle of the order hitters combined for as much power as you’d expect from a pitcher, but it’s not like Betancourt or Ichiro were on base much to be driven in anyway.
The bullpen issues have been covered, but let’s not overlook that the offense hasn’t really picked up their teammates either.
Veteran Relievers
Scheduling Note: No KJR gig with Groz today..
The Mariners quest for a veteran relief pitcher has led them through a series of arms this year.
Last ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ Reitsma 7.61 23.7 37 22 20 3 9 11 56 Parrish 8.44 5.3 12 5 5 0 2 1 50 White 5.79 4.7 9 4 3 0 3 3 74 Total 7.48 33.7 58 31 28 3 14 15 58
34 innings, 58 hits, 31 runs, 14 walks, 15 strikeouts, and a combined ERA that is 42 percent below the league average for all pitchers (significantly worse when compared to just relievers).
Being old does not equal being good. Learn from your mistakes. Talent > Experience.
This one is earned
Some losing streaks are a collection of tough breaks – a blooper here, a blown call there, and all of the sudden, you’ve lost a few games in a row.
This is not that. The Mariners have earned this six game losing streak – the one that’s essentially taken their playoff chances and ground them into powder. Through sheer ridiculous stubbornness and a complete lack of understanding of real baseball strategy, John McLaren punted tonights game. Just threw a win right out the window.
The Mariners didn’t deserve to win tonight’s game, even though they had it in their grasp. As an organization, they’ve put people in charge who simply aren’t capable of making enough good decisions to create a team that wins enough games to be considered a contender.
John McLaren simply doesn’t understand how to manage a roster. In game strategy isn’t everything, but it’s part of the job, and he fails at it.
My second thought on Guillen/Balentien
After talking to Dave about our disagreement, I realized something else: one of the things the M’s player development has become much, much better at in the last few years under Bavasi/Fontaine is determining which of their players are ready to play in the majors, and what their roles might be. We’ve seen most of that in filling out the bullpen, and I may disagree with what they do with them once they’ve come to those decisions (Morrow, for instance, was a case where they figured he could help with the bullpen, but that might have come at the expense of his development as a starter).
Bavasi’s stated that he’s unwilling to start two new outfielders, and if that was the limit of discussion, I’d still be pretty hot about it, but I can’t believe that during the season, particularly during the drawn-out discussions with Guillen, he didn’t have a discussion with the player development people and say “Do you think Wlad’s going to be ready in a year? Two years?” And I guess they must have put up their hands and said “We dunno, boss.”
If you grant them that, then it means that the brighter minds in the M’s player development organization aren’t seeing the big leap forward in Wlad’s game, or at least aren’t convinced it’s sustainable. Or they don’t think his performance is major-league ready. And I haven’t seen Wlad like they have — so I’m entirely willing to be humble and say “there may well be something they’re seeing that I’m not.”
Why does Rick White have to take 99 to Ballard if he wants to drink this off?
Because flammable cargo’s prohibited on I-5 under the Convention Center.
Well
That went about as poorly as humanly possible. Swept at home, despite throwing the three arms you’d choose against LAA, while missing out on having to face Kelvim Escobar – the M’s are now five games back of the Angels, and the chances for taking the division are plunging towards slim and none.
But hey, at least we’ve got Horacio Ramirez on the road against Cleveland tom… Uh oh.
Guillen’s extension: no thanks
Dave’s off his rocker. Guillen’s been a nice pickup, no doubt, and we’re all happy he’s here, but the M’s already have roster problems in the outfield: Jones needs to start in 08, and we’ve also got Balentien, who has made huge strides offensively this year and looks ready. Both of those guys have potential coming out their ears, and they’re as close to free as to make no odds. To make room for Jones, someone’s got go to somewhere, and it ought to be Ibanez to DH or 1B, pushing Sexson out. Then to play Balentien, you can’t retain Guillen, since Ichiro’s not going anywhere…
I’m not all that worried that Guillen’s going to drop off a cliff or anything, though that’s certainly possible. Or even that the contract’s outrageous, because it’s not — though I’ll point out that it’s another great example of teams not learning from success. “Hey, we turned this random guy into an ace closer! No way that would happen again! Let’s give them a 10y, $230m extension!” “Hey, we found a pretty good outfielder on the scrap heap and only had to pay them a couple million! There’s no chance we’d ever be that saavy twice — extend that player’s contract!” There will be Jose Guillen-type finds next year. The M’s just won’t be making them.
And I don’t care that it means the team would be starting 08 with two new outfielders. They’re the best option the team has, and an Ichiro-Jones-Balentien outfield would be a huge defensive upgrade over this year’s.
But think even beyond that: this team has a huge gaping hole of a rotation for next year. I’m all for free talent acquisition, especially gambling in the 4-5 slots, but as we’ve seen, the team desperately needs to upgrade the rotation. Considering how they’ve doled out the payroll in past years, it’s entirely possible that $10m’s going to be the difference between giving Schilling or whoever a short, extremely lucrative deal and seeing who wants to come on board for $6.5m and free Moose rides.
The M’s have better, cheaper long-term solutions that will help build a young core that can compete for championships. They have better uses for the money. They’re paying for security when security’s not what the team needs.
A few quick notes
Okay, a couple of items, two even baseball related, that I need to get up before the game thread.
1. A friend of mine is starting a non-profit and needs some immediate help from an experienced web designer. If you’re interested in helping fix some code and get the site live, and can offer some assistance in the next couple of days, drop us a line.
2. John Hickey reports that Jose Guillen and the M’s are close to a three year contract extension. These negotiations haven’t been any kind of secret, and it’s been known for a while now that this was probably going to happen. It will get its own post when it becomes official, but I’m guessing it’s coming in around 3 years and $30 million, and if so, I’m on board – Guillen’s a quality player that the M’s should be interested in retaining.
3. I’m proud to have never watched one second of Dancing With The Stars, but that might change this fall – my cousin, Josie Maran, is part of the new cast. No, I have no idea how she and I came from the same gene pool, but she obviously hogged all the good looking genes. Go Josie.
4. Happy Felix Day.
Ouch
That one hurts. Up 5-0 after the first inning, having chased the other team’s starter, and end up losing 10-6? There’s failure on all fronts in that kind of performance.
1. Jeff Weaver failed. Spotted a big lead against a team that doesn’t have a great offense, he allowed the Angels to put the bat on the ball far too often and bad things resulted. Now, this is part of the deal with a pitcher of Weaver’s skillset, so it’s hard to be too tough on him – he’s a mediocre #5 starter, and stuff like this happens to mediocre #5 starters. But it was bad timing, to say the least.
2. The offense failed. After knocking Ervin Santana out early, they proceeded to let Dustin Mosely get through the next 5 1/3 innings on 54 pitches. We all know the M’s have built an aggressive offense, but seriously, do these guys have no ability to take a pitch? Ever? You’ve just bounced the other team’s starter in the first inning, and now their bullpen is going to have to get 25 outs, plus you’re playing them in a day game tomorrow – make the arms work and churn through their bullpen. That it only took the Angels three pitchers to finish out the last 8 2/3 innings is a total joke.
3. The bullpen failed. They’ve been the rock of the team all year long, so they’re allowed to let some runs in occassionally, but Sean Green and Brandon Morrow chose a bad time to stop being unhittable.
4. And finally, John McLaren failed. Spectacularly. He continues to demonstrate a massive lack of understanding of actual baseball strategy that is staggering in depth. Sean Green gets to face Vladimir Guerrero with first base open because Vlad was 0 for 4 career against Green? That’s the kind of analysis I’d expect from a six year old. You have to have a complete lack of understanding of the the uses of statistics to decide that an 0-for-4 means something, but McLaren clings to it to make a terrible, and crucial, decision in a game that could swing the tide of the playoff race.
Then, the unbelievable capper.
Bases loaded, two outs, top of the 8th, trailing by one run – this is the most important at-bat of the game, even before accounting for the fact that Vladimir Guerrero is the one coming to the plate. The leverage index of this situation was 2.92, and remember, its scaled where 1.00 is exactly average and anything over 1.8 is considered high pressure – 2.92 is nail-biting, game-changing, biggest-play-of-the-game territory.
John McLaren chose Rick White. Rick White. The worst pitcher in the bullpen. Rick White would be the worst pitcher in almost every bullpen in the American League, and certainly the worst pitcher on any contending team in the A.L. He’s not a major league pitcher, and he hasn’t been for a while now. The people who tell you he is simply don’t understand how to evaluate pitchers. The only scenario where carrying Rick White is a defensible position is if you intend to use him to pitch in already decided games, for multiple innings, and let him be a veteran voice for the kids in the bullpen. Rick White’s skills, at this point, are essentially those of a coach, not a player.
That’s not how John McLaren sees him. John McLaren sees a guy who has experience, and above all else, he values track records, and of course, Rick White has a track record against Vladimir Guerrero. 2-12 in his career – this must be a good matchup, right? Uhh, no. Look at the years when those matchups occurred. Individual batter-pitcher stats mean less than nothing. They should not be used to make any kind of in game strategical decision.
It matters not that Rick White has as much business on the mound as you or I do in a close game in a playoff race. The result, of course, wasn’t hard to see coming – a couple of base hits, the bases clear, and the game is essentially over.
George Sherrill is then brought in to pitch mopup work in the 9th inning of a game the team trailed 10-6 and had little chance of winning. J.J. Putz never pitched. The Mariners, in a game that could very well cost them a chance at the division title, chose Rick White over George Sherrill or J.J. Putz. That’s incompetence of a level that I can’t even define.
Last nights game was a team wide failure. You can lay blame at the feet of practically everyone on the roster. At this point, there’s only one thing to say:
Please, Felix, save us.