Reading for the day
More interesting stuff than usual in the local dailies.
Front office changes looming in the Times. Benny Looper is moving from his VP executive role into a scouting position. This will allow him to spend more time doing the things he enjoys, and less time riding a desk. The one and only Frank Mattox will inherit most of his responsibilities. At the bottom, it’s noted that the M’s have dismissed Glenn Adams, their minor league hitting coordinator. You knew someone was going to get blamed for the Matt Tuiasasopo debacle.
Also in the Times, another Chris Snelling profile, though this one written by notable scribe Larry Stone, so its better than most. If you’ve followed Snelling the past few years, it’s nothing new, but if you’re a new reader to the site, you may not be aware of his penchant for Yoda or the stuffed doll story.
Finally, the P-I has a bit on the M’s lousy approach at the plate, and has some quotes from Pentland and Hargrove. This one is my favorite:
“It’s not a philosophical thing. It’s our philosophy to get in good hitters’ counts,” manager Mike Hargrove said. “I think it’s a combination of hitters’ styles and the fact that we have younger hitters, less experienced hitters.”
Yes Mike, it’s all those darn young players. If only we had more old guys, we’d be doing great. Darn Bavasi and his roster construction.
It is a philosophical thing. You can’t say the word aggressiveness 842 times a day during spring training, reward guys who hack wildly with regular playing time, and expect them to simultaneously become walk machines. Yes, part of it is roster construction – players do walk more as they age. But it’s also a philosophy thing – the M’s overarching “put pressure on the defense” mentality does creep into the at-bats, and the organizations general lack of interest in players who draw walks reinforces the culture of free-swinging that has been fostered here.
Game 126, Yankees at Mariners
Wang vs Hernandez, 7:05 pm.
63.5% of Chien-Ming Wang’s balls in play are grounders, best in the American League. 56.2% of Felix Hernandez’s balls in play are grounders, fourth best in the AL. Felix’s GB% in his 12 starts last year was 67%, which is just off the charts for a starting pitcher. In other words, don’t expect the outfielders to get many chances tonight. Jeff Sullivan and I were joking around last night that both teams should go with 5 infielders and 2 outfielders, and after a night of thinking it over, I’m not sure its that crazy.
This will be an interesting matchup for Felix. No A-Rod in the Yankee line-up tonight, so its not quite the juggernaut it usually is, but they’re still extremely patient hitters, and that can give Felix fits. He gets a lot of swings-and-misses on pitches out of the zone, so if NY isn’t biting at those pitches, he could run up a high pitch count pretty quickly. It will be important for Felix to get ahead in the count, and do so with something besides constant first-pitch fastballs.
The line-up is the same as last night.
1. Ichiro, CF
2. Snelling, RF
3. Beltre, 3B
4. Sexson, 1B
5. Ibanez, LF
6. Lopez, 2B
7. Broussard, 1B
8. Betancourt, SS
9. Rivera, C
Another day off for Johjima. He hasn’t started a game since last Saturday. He’s pinch-hitting late in games, so it’s probably not an injury.
Also interesting, this is Snelling’s fourth start in the last five games after Hargrove proclaimed that he “didn’t expect him to play much”. It’s pretty likely that Hargrove was asked to get Doyle in the line-up more often than he originally planned. And the team is certainly better for it.
Fan Scouting Report
Friend of USSM and extremely smart guy Tom Tango is putting on his annual Fan Scouting Report. With all the work done to try to quantify defensive analysis, Tango is taking the Wisdom of Crowds approach. None of us are defensive experts, but if you’ve read the wisdom of crowds thesis, you realize that we all have our own small insights to add, and when you get a large representative sample, you can end up with some very good information.
By bringing together a lot of people who watch a lot of baseball, he’s compiled ratings based on the popular consensus of how good defensively players are. The data certainly isn’t the be-all, end-all of defensive analysis, but it’s very good information to have.
So, if you’d like to participate, go fill out the survey. However, please read the instructions. Tom takes a unique approach to evaluating defensive skills, and one that I whole-heartedly agree with; he wants to know what kind of skills a player has, and not how those skills compare to the relative merits of the other players who man that position. Or, as he states it:
Try to judge “average” not as an average player at that position, but an average player at any position. If you think that Chone Figgins has an average arm, then mark him as average, regardless if you’ve seen him play CF, 1B, 2B, or 3B.
DO NOT CONSIDER THE POSITION THE PLAYER PLAYS!
DO NOT CONSIDER THE POSITION THE PLAYER PLAYS!
DO NOT CONSIDER THE POSITION THE PLAYER PLAYS!
Position-independant defensive analysis is superior, in my opinion. Do we want to slag Derek Jeter’s defense at shortstop because his range isn’t good, relatively, to other shortstops, while giving Troy Glaus a pass because his defense at third isn’t as bad compared to other 3B? No – Jeter’s a significantly better defensive player than Glaus, but that gets lost in the shuffle of defensive position rankings.
So, let me encourage you guys to go fill out the survey. Tom’s been extremely helpful to us, and this is a great chance for us to return the favor.
Late Game Management
We won! Woohah. However:
This isn’t anything we haven’t pointed out before, but since I said good things about Mike Hargrove’s line-up before the game last night, I have to point out how terribly he managed the end game.
Seattle – Bottom of 8th Score
Ron Villone pitching for New York
R Cano at second base.
E Perez walked.
W Bloomquist ran for E Perez.
Y Betancourt sacrificed to pitcher, W Bloomquist to second.
K Johjima hit for R Rivera.
K Johjima grounded out to third.
I Suzuki intentionally walked.
T Bohn hit for C Snelling.
T Bohn struck out swinging.
The inning starts out well, with Eduardo Perez getting the leadoff base on balls, which the announcers will tell you always comes around to score. They’re wrong, as you’ll see later, but it comes around to score even less often when the manager bungles the rest of the inning.
Using Tangotiger’s Win Expectancy chart, we see that the M’s are in a good situation. Tie game, bottom of the 8th, runner at first and nobody out, they have a WE of .673. In other words, the M’s would be expected to win this game two out of three times, considering they have 6 outs to go vs the Yankees 3 outs, and they have the potential winning run on base with no men out. It’s a good spot to be in.
Bloomquist pinch runs for Perez, which is totally defendable, especially if you’re going to have him steal second. If Bloomquist steals second, the WE raises to .738, a six point increase. If he gets thrown out trying to steal, the WE drops to .559, an eight point decrease. For the steal to make mathmatical sense in this situation, Willie would only need to be successful about 60% of the time. He’s 75% on the season and 85% for his career. Posada’s throwing out 36% of base stealers this year, and 30% for his career.
No matter how you break it out, the math works. Bloomquist is probably around 80% likely to swipe the bag there, which makes the reward well worth the risk.
Instead, the Mariners decide to have Willie stand on first and ask Yuniesky Betancourt to lay down a sacrifice, getting Bloomquist to second but using an out in the process. The WE goes from .673 to .656, a 1.5 point decrease. Yes, the runner is now in scoring position, but the Mariners are actually less likely to win the game now than they were before the bunt, because we’re running out of outs and are still tied.
The sac bunt to get the runner from first to second, especially when the runner is a base stealing threat, is a bad managerial decision. And Hargrove does it all the freaking time. If you want Betancourt to lay one down, have Bloomquist try to steal second first. Then, if he’s successful, bunt Willie to third. That’s okay, if you have to bunt. Getting the runner from second to third with less than two out is a big deal. But stop with the bunting a fast runner from first to second. It hurts the team’s chances of winning.
Then, of course, he compounds the problem with the absurd but totally predictable decision to pinch-hit T.J. Bohn for Chris Snelling. We like the fact that Bohn is here instead of Jones as the designated late game defensive replacement/pinch runner, but let’s not fool ourselves – he’s not much of a hitter. He’s vulnerable to breaking balls, chases pitches out of the strike zone, doesn’t make great contact, and has only gap power. Of course, he’s right-handed, while both Ron Villone and Chris Snelling are left-handed, so it was the by-the-book move to make.
It was just the wrong move to make. Chris Snelling can actually hit. He’s never shown a platoon split in the minors. He doesn’t have a swing that is exploitable by LHP’s. The M’s, needing a base hit to take the lead heading into the 9th inning, replaced a good hitter with a poor hitter, all in the name of getting a platoon advantage. A good LHB is a better bet against a good LHP than a bad RHB is. Mike Hargrove consistently fails to grasp this concept, and Bohn predictably struck out. Asking a kid to make his major league debut in that circumstance isn’t fair anyways, and having him pinch hit for a superior hitter is just foolish.
George Sherrill pitching for Seattle
T Bohn in right field.
K Johjima catching.
J Damon flied out to right.
J Mateo relieved G Sherrill.
D Jeter singled to right.
B Abreu struck out swinging.
A Guiel hit for C Wilson.
A Guiel walked, D Jeter to second.
A Rodriguez struck out swinging.
I’ve railed on this decision so many times, it’s not funny, but it has to be pointed out, because Mike Hargrove simply fails to grasp this concept, and it’s such an easy one.
When you’re the home team, and you go into the 9th inning tied, there can never be a save situation. Ever. It can’t happen. If you win, it’s going to be a walkoff win. You will never have a lead to protect. It’s fundamentally impossible.
Facing a situation where the Yankees had the middle of their order coming up, including two hall-of-fame RHBs, Mike Hargrove went with Julio Mateo instead of J.J. Putz. Why? Because it wasn’t a save situation, and J.J. is our closer.
This basic lack of understanding drives me insane, and Hargrove has done this repeatedly. Melvin did it too. It’s absurd, and the fact that a guy whose job is to make strategic decisions to help his team win can’t understand the concept is mind boggling to me.
Yes, it worked, and we won – huzzah. But we won despite the late game management of Mike Hargrove, who actually made it less likely the team would prevail. He made three lousy decisions in the span of 10 minutes, and the Mariners managed to overcome all three. But if you’re looking for reasons why the M’s suck in one run games this year, look no further than their manager. It’s nights like this that serve as glaring examples why Mike Hargrove just doesn’t belong inside the M’s dugout.
Game 125, Yankees at Mariners
Baek vs Karstens, 7:05 pm
Cha Baek makes his first start in the majors in a couple of years after posting a nice ERA in the PCL this season, but let’s be clear – he’s not a prospect. He throws his mediocre stuff over the plate and lets hitters get themselves out or not. It’s the Ryan Franklin approach to pitching. This is about the worst possible matchup for him, as the Yankees offense rolls into town fresh off a five game weekend sweep of the Red Sox. The Mariners, meanwhile, haven’t won a game since Columbus sailed the ocean blue. It’s the irresistible force against the most movable object of all time. This should be fun. But on the brightside, the line-up:
1. Ichiro, CF (WOO!)
2. Snelling, RF (WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!)
3. Beltre, 3B (WOO – BOO – WOO – BOO – Who knows)
4. Sexson, 1B (See above)
5. Ibanez, LF (Como se dice WOO en espanol?)
6. Lopez, 2B (Just a W, because after a promising start, we’ve gotten very little)
7. Broussard, DH (CHOOOOOO! – oh, wait, wrong team)
8. Betancourt, SS (OOH – he leads the league in plays that make you say ooh)
9. Rivera, C (Uhh, crap)
Minus the whole Rene Rivera thing – and I’m assuming that now that we’re out of it that Johjima will actually get to catch a human workload, which I’m okay with – this is pretty much the best line-up the M’s have put out all year. Hargrove ignores his normal left-right mandate and actually puts Snelling and his on base ways in the #2 hole, which is the lineup spot he was created for. We have Ichiro in center again. Willie is nowhere to be seen.
They might be too little, too late, but we have to admit, the M’s are making the right moves now. We’ve taken Hargrove to task all year long, but this line-up is a good one, and it shows that he’s capable of assembling a quality batting order. Let’s hope it sticks.
More moves
Just when you thought they were done, nope, the moves keep coming.
Probably announced tomorrow (Edit: Just announced, now official), though might happen before gametime: Adam Jones back to Tacoma, T.J. Bohn up. Since Tacoma already played today (Bohn didn’t, by the way), they might wait to send Jones back until after the game tonight.
With Ichiro to center becoming pretty much official for the rest of the year (WOOOOO!), Jones is going back to Triple-A to get some playing time for the next few weeks. He’ll be recalled when rosters expand before the 20 day loophole closes, so this won’t cost him an option year.
Rotation shuffle:
Meche is having his start skipped. Felix and Washburn move up to start tomorrow and Thursday, respectively. It’s assumed, but not known for sure, that Woods goes Friday. No Saturday starter has been named. I don’t have an explanation for why Meche’s start is being skipped. It could be because he’s been terrible lately, or, more interestingly, he might have cleared waivers and they could have something brewing. We’ll find out in the next few days.
Larry Stone Goes Yard
Larry Stone pulled off the writer’s version of a longball with today’s piece, “Bavasi trudges on in search of a win”. It’s articles like this that illuminate why he’s on an entirely different level than the rest of the sports writers in this city. Some of the interesting blurbs:
Bavasi won’t get into a conversation about Hargrove’s status or job performance, except to say that he has “shown great patience in a bad situation, which is not an easy thing to do. We’re dealing with a lot of young kids that are overmatched, I guess, and some veterans that apparently are not performing up to their abilities.”
Apparently.
“It’s difficult to swallow,” Bavasi said. “I’ve seen teams do this, but they usually have less ability, in my opinion. There’s some serious underachieving going on.”
Bill Bavasi doesn’t like talking to reporters, and he’s one of the best in the game at saying nothing of interest when a microphone is in front of him. Stone’s ability to get a quote like this that is legitimately intriguing is just good reporting.
That was evidenced by Saturday’s trade of Jamie Moyer, which was an emotional punch to the gut for fans already steaming over the mounting losses — but also the right thing to do for the organization…
It was also the right thing — and highly overdue — for Ichiro to move to center field, giving the club the perfect opportunity to give the ever-enticing Chris Snelling a long look in right.
More proof that Larry Stone understands the dynamics of how to build a baseball team. He avoids the easy article that everyone else is writing about how the team sold off a local legend for two no-name prospects and calls the trade what it was – the right thing to do. He also manages to get Bavasi to mention that the Ichiro-as-CF move is going to stick for a while, which is just fantastic news.
This might not seem the right time to put forward this thought, but I truly believe the Mariners are closer to contention right now than they were last August. All it will take this winter is daring, vision, a prudent game plan, and a little bit of providence (such as winning the bidding for Japanese ace Daisuke Matsuzaka).
Coming off an 0-11 road trip against the division, Stone avoids the sky-is-falling column that would have been so easy to write, and instead finishes the article with a reminder of the reality that this team is actually headed in the right direction. Stone’s exactly right – this team is closer to contention now than they were a year ago, and there’s no reason to be writing off 2007 right now.
We’ve said a lot of good things about Larry Stone on the blog the past few years. It’s columns like today’s that explain why. He’s very, very good at what he does, and we’re lucky to have him covering the Mariners.
Best Sweep Ever
The last four days, the M’s got swept. Again. That concluded an 0-11 road trip against the AL West where the team dropped 8 games in the standings. The first game of the road trip, they were playing to even their record. Now, they’re just as close to .400 as they are to .500, and the last two weeks have been nothing short of disastrous.
That, everyone knows. But the last four days have seen more than just the Mariners getting their butts handed to them on a nightly basis. The last four days brought more good news than we’ve seen in a month. For instance:
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Chris Snelling’s career as a minor leaguer effectively came to an end, and he got 10 plate appearances in four days, going 3 for 7 with 3 walks. The Mariners desperately need Snelling’s skillset in the line-up, and the fact that he went from troubled Triple-A soul to getting semi-regular playing time for the Mariners was a huge positive.
The M’s took a proactive approach to keeping one of their prized young arms healthy – instead of telling Mark Lowe to buck up and learn how to pitch through pain, they shut down a kid who has been a revelation since coming up from the minors and has no injury that anyone can diagnose. He’s not hurt, per se, but the team decided to take the cautious approach and do a little preventative maintenance. For an organization that spent the last 10 years shredding arms, that’s a big step.
Jamie Moyer was scheduled to make 7 more starts this season for the Mariners, none of which would have any impact on the future of this club. The season’s story has essentially been written, and he would have simply been pitching for pride and personal statistics. Instead of having Moyer just ride out the waves, the team turned him into a 23-year-old with a low-90’s fastball and a potential outpitch slider. In picking up guys like Baldwin and Travis Chick in the Guardado trade, the Mariners continue to stockpile kids who have enough raw talent to be something if things break right. Andrew Baldwin is better today than Mark Lowe was a year ago, or then J.J. Putz was when he was as a 23-year-old in A-ball. It’s easy to write off kids like Baldwin as longshots who are likely to fail, but they do come through sometimes, and the payoff can be very valuable.
Ichiro played center field. Really. The starting outfield that we were calling for three months ago became a realization today, with the best defensive outfielder on the roster manning the most important of the three outfield spots in order to open up a spot in the line-up for Chris Snelling. If Ichiro and the Mariners are willing to make this center field thing stick, it opens up a lot of doors. As much as we like the future that Adam Jones could have, this team is better both today and in 2007 with Ichiro in center field and Snelling flanking him in a corner. Ichiro, as a right fielder, is an all-star and one of the better players in the game. As a center fielder, he’s a legitimate MVP candidate in most seasons.
The annual Mike Hargrove late season collapse is on. No one thought he was going to be managing this team in 2007 several months ago, but after watching his team fall in on itself in the final two months of the season yet again, the only way Mike Hargrove returns to the club next season is if he personally catches Osama Bin Laden. And even then, it’d still be up in the air. The losing sucks, but it brings with it the guarantee of a new manager, and that’s a cheery thought.
And finally, Doyle has arrived. Two thumbs up to the guys at KSTW who got that on the air.
So, yes, the M’s just spent another weekend with LLLL added to the tally. But, in the end, there was a ton of good news that came out the last four days. I’d argue that I’ve never been more pleased with an 0-4 weekend before. This was the best sweep ever.
10-32 versus the AL West
Eleven losses in a row, nineteen straight losses against AL West opponents. Or, no wins against the AL West in the second half so far.
Last win against an AL West team: June 11th, on the Road against the Angels to sweep a three-game series.
1-15 versus Oakland
2-8 versus Texas
7-9 versus Anaheim LA.
Game 124, Mariners at Angels
12:35pm start on the mighty KSTW.
LHP Jake Woods, making his first major league start, vs. RHP Ervin Santana. Time to go with a lefty-heavy lineup, as they hit Sanatana much better than righties do.
I’d beg and plead for the losing to stop, but what’s the point? This is what Hargrove does late in the year. In 2002, the Orioles were 63-63 in late August but finished the year 4-32 with losing streaks of 8, 10, and 12. 4-32. That’s not a typo. Shockingly, he didn’t lose his job until the following season.
CF Ichiro!
2B Lopez
3B Beltre
LF Ibanez
1B Sexson
DH Broussard
SS Betancourt
RF Snelling
C Rivera
If this Ichiro! in center thing is for real — and by that I mean long-term, as it’s obviously for real for today — wow. Potentially a very good thing going forward.