M’s after Matt Morris
We all appreciate Dave around here. Some of us appreciate his well-reasoned statistical analysis. Some of us are fond of his mad photographic skills. And often, we are grateful for his Karnacian ability to predict the future.
This is not one of those times.
Jim Street reports this morning that the M’s may be turning their attention to Matt Morris. You may recall that this is one of Dave’s projected moves for the Mariners.
Note the difference between “projected” and “endorsed.” He’s also on Dave’s list of free agent landmines, and with substantial justification.
Morris’ numbers post-All Star Break: in 88 inning, he had just 44 strikeouts and gave up 113 hits on his way to a 5.32 ERA. Those after-the-break numbers compare to another pitcher you might have heard of.
Fortunately, several other organizations are tiptoeing around the Morris landmine, so one of them has a chance to save the M’s from a mistake. And for your daily dose of sunshine, Jon Paul Morosi speculates that the team’s chances at Kevin Millwood may be enhanced by Bill Bavasi’s relationship with his agent.
On balance, though, I’d have to guess that Dave’s prediction will be borne out. He’s often right about things, and we usually like it when he is. Usually.
Back Away From My Betancourt
Recently, I’ve stated that I feel like the most undervalued commodity in baseball currently is defense. I feel that you can build a team that is great at run prevention for less than you can build one that is great at run scoring. I’ve advocated acquiring a number of players for their defensive prowess, and have been against the acquisitions of big name, lead glove sluggers with equally big contracts.
So, this may come as a bit of a surprise, but I think the Mariners are making a mistake by declaring Yuniesky Betancourt off limits in trade talks. I love Betancourt’s glove as much as anyone else. I even wrote a glowing review of his defensive prowess a few months ago. I think it’s fairly clear that Betancourt has all the ability to be an elite defensive player. There’s no doubt that his abilities in the field are special, and finding a player with his skills is rare indeed.
However, let’s be realistic with what we have here.
The best defensive players in the league are approximately 20 to 30 runs above an average defensive player at their position. There are certainly seasons where they save more than 30 runs above average, but those peak seasons don’t appear to be representative of a true talent level, as nobody consistently puts up numbers in that stratosphere. So, if we give Betancourt’s glove full credit for being one of the very best defensive performers in all of baseball, we’ll give him 25 runs above an average shortstop for his work with the leather.
Now, we get to his offense. He didn’t embarrass himself in Seattle, but he certainly wasn’t an offensive force, either. His .256/.296/.370 mark would project to be about 12 runs below what an average shortstop in Safeco Field would put up over the course of a full season. If we assume that his bat will improve a bit, say, to .270/.310/.390, he’d be about 6 to 8 runs below average over the course of the year.
So, next year, we’re looking at the possibility of Betancourt being worth something like 15-20 runs above what an average shortstop would put up if we assume that he’s the best defensive shortstop in baseball. That’s a valuable player, no doubt. A 23-year-old shortstop who is above average and signed to a low-value contract for the next 3 years? I’ll take two, please.
But why, exactly, is Yuniesky Betancourt untouchable? Here’s a few infielders who were approximately 25 runs above average at their positions in 2005:
Rafael Furcal
Chase Utley
Julio Lugo
Mark Ellis
Placido Polanco
Good players, all. But if that’s Betancourt’s ceiling, and we have to acknowledge that there’s a significant possibility that he won’t fulfill every inch of his potential, don’t we have to look at ourselves and wonder if this is the type of player that we cannot afford to part with. Even if Betancourt turns into the next Rafael Furcal (which, I’d say, there’s about a 5 percent chance of), that’s a borderline all-star, a good player that you’d like to have but certainly not the best player on a championship club.
Betancourt is a good player at a position the M’s need a good player. But if Arizona comes calling with a package of Stephen Drew and Conor Jackson (they won’t), you better believe I’m saying yes before they can change their minds.
I’m glad Betancourt’s a Mariner. But I can’t say I’m thrilled that the organization considers him to be off-limits in any trade discussion.
BP book event
Tired of waiting for that stove to re-heat? Well, fire that bad boy up with a joint Baseball Prospectus/USSM event to herald the release of Mind Game. The ever-suave Jonah Keri will be in attendance to preview BP 2006, and so will I.
Regardless of what that announcement says, there will be no regaling, and Evil Rick is almost guaranteed not to appear. But we’re chasing other special guests. Perhaps even as special as the guest Derek and I have planned for next year’s USSM gathering.
Join us, won’t you?
Sat. Dec. 17, 6:30 pm
Third Place Books
Lake Forest Park Towne Centre
17171 Bothell Way NE
Lake Forest Park, WA 98155
Tel: 206-366-3333
The Market and Guardado
Match the relievers to the contracts!
Player A: 77.2 IP, 1.51 ERA, 87 K, 20 BB
Player B: 70.1 IP, 2.43 ERA, 100K, 26 BB
Player C: 56.1 IP, 2.72 ERA, 48K, 15 BB
Player D: 68.1 IP, 2.63 ERA, 65K, 26BB
Player E: 73 IP, 2.47 ERA, 48K, 16BB
(not adjusted for home park)
1 year, $6.5m
4 years, $43m
3 years, $11m
3 years, $12m
5 years, $47m
And it’s not as if those guys all had perfect health records, either.
I wonder if all the time Eddie was complaining about the team not calling him there were two M’s front office people arguing in a conference room (“There’s no way he doesn’t pick up the player option!” “There’s no way he does!” “No way we can trade him at six-and-a-half!” “Of course we can!”) until finally someone broke the news that $2m wasn’t all that much money in the grand scheme of Mariner roster construction, and their attention was needed to come up with Plans B-ZZ for building the rotation.
Loaiza to the A’s
You can cross one part of my offseason plan off the list. The A’s today signed Esteban Loaiza to a 3 year deal with a team option for a fourth believed to be worth $21 million guaranteed with possible total value of $30 million.
I suggested signing Loaiza for 3 years, $18 million, and that’s pretty darn close to what he got. I definitely would have gone 3/21, and it’s a very good signing for the A’s. I have to believe this means Barry Zito is going to be traded, meaning Beane decided he’d rather have Loaiza and what he gets for Zito for the same price as he could have kept Barry. And, considering that the market for Zito is going to be absurd, I think he’s absolutely right.
Yet another good move by the A’s. Shocking, I know.
Run Values
I got my copy (okay, copies, since I’m a geek who plans on giving out a couple to friends…) of the Hardball Times 2006 Annual today. I’ve mentioned before that I have an article in the book, so there’s little objectivity involved when I tell you to buy one. Actually, buy more than one. Buy as many as you’d like.
But, don’t worry, this isn’t just a plug, though it obviously is that too. I’ve only had a chance to read a couple of the articles so far, and because I’m fascinated by the batted ball data that they provide, I jumped right into one of the articles by Dave Studenmund called “What’s a Batted Ball Worth?” Since they purchase exclusive batted ball type data from Baseball Info Solutions, they have some really interesting numbers that you can’t get anywhere else. And this article is full of those types of numbers.
There’s one table in particular that jumped out at me, and I think it illustrates pretty well why we believe some of the things that we do and are often questioned about. Below are the average run values for each type of possible outcome.
Line Drive: .356
Hit By Pitch: .342
Non-Intentional Walk: .315
Intentional Walk: .176
Outfield Fly: .035
Groundball: -.101
Bunts: -.103
Infield Fly: -.243
Strikeout: -.287
This is particularly of interest as it relates to pitchers. Strikeouts are clearly the best outcome they can hope for in an average at-bat, though obviously, there are circumstances where a ground ball (which could lead to a double play) would be more beneficial. Walks are abysmal for pitchers. Inducing a groundball is better than giving up a flyball, even though the flyball has more chancees of being caught.
So, looking at the run value chart, the ideal pitcher would be a extreme groundballer who also strikes out a lot of batters and gives up almost no line drives while limiting his walks. Like, say, King Felix.
Just for fun, I took the percentage outcomes for these four outcomes and created a quick and dirty formula to create one “effective percentage”. (GB%+K%)-(LD%+BB%). Basically, how many more groundballs and strikeouts do they get on a per-batter ratio then they give up in walks and line drives. Here’s the list of the top 40, using a minimum of 300 batters faced, and I’ve highlited some of the names of interest to M’s fans:
Hernandez F. 52% Halladay R. 47% Rivera M. 47% Lowe D. 46% Webb B. 45% Westbrook J. 42% Williams T. 42% Wang C. 42% Carpenter C. 41% Gordon T. 41% Shields S. 39% Burnett A. 39% Cook A. 38% Loe K. 38% Santana J. 37% Johnson R. 36% Duchscherer 36% Qualls C. 36% Mulder M. 36% Reitsma C. 35% Peavy J. 35% Clemens R. 35% Pettitte A. 35% Silva C. 34% Hudson T. 33% Maddux G. 33% Oswalt R. 33% Street H. 33% Rincon J. 33% Martinez P. 33% Dempster R. 32% Sabathia C. 32% Johnson J. 32% Colon B. 32% Haren D. 32% Pavano C. 32% Frasor J. 32% Mussina M. 32% Wells D. 31%
By evaluating batted ball type rather than outcome, we’re evaluating more what the pitcher could control and less what is influenced by his fielders. I’m not offering this as anything other than a fun toy, but I do think the list is interesting, if nothing else.
Today’s red-hot Mariner rumor
There isn’t one. Slow period for baseball news, yup.
More Johjima stats
BP’s latest Prospectus Notebook has a bit on Kenji Johjima, and includes this long-awaited tidbit:
Johjima 2000-2005 Translated Statistics with Fukuoka
YEAR AB HR SB% BA/OBP/SLG EqA EQR
2000 311 6 83.3 293/351/428 .272 43
2001 551 13 75.0 256/288/361 .226 50
2002 438 12 72.7 286/351/411 .265 57
2003 561 13 72.7 296/367/430 .277 80
2004 436 15 71.4 300/381/459 .289 69
2005 424 11 42.9 290/350/439 .272 59
A projection based on his three-year average production would be .295/.366/.442, which is a lot different than the .300/.340/.500 I came up with using a harsher version of Clay’s older estimations of NPB strength in a post last week. It looks like in the intervening years, Clay’s revised the translations again to try and project the difference in power numbers based on what we’ve seen from 2002 through last season.
Even if you knock it down for age and his new home park, that still would make a great line to get from our catcher, and if he really is as advertised defensively, all the better.
Johjima interview
For your Turkey Day enjoyment, the Mariners MLB site features a translated Johjima interview.
Manny Ramirez wants to come to Seattle?
That’s what the Boston Herald says, claiming that the mercurial masher wishes a trade to the M’s or the Angels.
Manny Ramirez’ fondest wish – currently – is to play for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim or the Seattle Mariners. The AL West rivals, according to a source close to the Red Sox left fielder, top the list of teams he wants to be traded to. Still, it is no secret around baseball that Ramirez has been known to change his mind and that his current desire to be traded could cool altogether.
The article speculates that Manny’s familiarity with Mike Hargrove is a factor in this seemingly out-of-nowhere impulse.
This strikes me as very far-fetched, though in theory I would love to see his bat in the lineup. Since I try to refrain from cooking up speculative trades, let’s leave it at that. The part that interests me from the article is this:
A Mariners source said last night that the club has not been focused on Ramirez but trying to obtain a left-handed slugger to complement righties Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson.
Yes, Safeco favors left-handed hitters, and yes, the Mariners have a right-handed heavy lineup. But this is one of the top sluggers in baseball. There are some good reasons for not pursuing him, but the side of the plate he hits home runs from isn’t one.
I’m reminded of the time when the Portland Trail Blazers were faced with the fateful decision of whether to draft Sam Bowie or Michael Jordan. GM Stu Inman was dicussing it with his friend Bob Knight, who was a Jordan booster. “But,” said Inman, “we need a center.” Knight shot back, “So play Jordan at center!”
So get Manny, and have him bat left-handed.
No, not really. But left-handed Manny would still probably pack more punch than most of the bench.