Adrian Beltre
Adrian Beltre missed five games in mid-June (14th through 18th). He was hitting .244/.279/.361 at the time, certainly not the production we all expected.
His line currently sits at .264/.305/.403, so yeah, he’s done some good things since his mini-DL stint — by my calculations, he’s hitting .360/.458/.480 since missing those games. Expanding the sample a bit, he hit .321/.391/.444 in June.
In any event, I’m not concerned.
Thirty three, forty six
In 2004, the team made a decision that the team needed more grit. They imported certified grit to supplement their homegrown grit, and the result was a depressing, gritty team that had to be taken apart mid-season — and got better.
This year, they decided they needed power, and they pursued two huge free agents in Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson. The result is a depressing team that may still be taken apart mid-season.
This Mariner team is worse in many ways than last year’s: the 2005 squad is 2nd to last in batting average (.254), last in on-base percentage (.314), 2nd to last in slugging, where last year’s squad was tied for 9th, 19th, and 27th. I used to complain that all the 2004 Mariners could do on offense was hit boring singles. This year’s team can’t even manage that.
On the reverse side, the pitching staff now consists of five Ryan Franklin clones gone wrong. They have the worst strikeout rate of any pitching staff in the major leagues, and they’re walking too many hitters and letting too many home runs go to make that a reasonable strategy (tied for 9th overall). It’s last year’s staff with a slightly different flavor.
Who’s to blame on the field?
Bret Boone‘s been below average for his position, but he hasn’t reached truly horrible. We’re a little spoiled with 2001/2003 memories: second basemen, as a group, don’t hit that well. He’s in the last year of a huge three-year deal (containing a fourth year option guaranteed after 400 plate appearances in 2004). It was signed when he was 32, after a out-of-nowhere career year. At the time, we wrote that the team would have been better off taking him to arbitration every year and avoiding even that kind of commitment. Certainly, we don’t know when would they have cut him, and whether they would have found a good replacement? It’s unlikely they’d have seen 2004 coming (even I was saying at that point my arbitration plan would have been less efficent), but after 2004 it’s likely they’d have cut him, and even a random rent-a-player this off-season would have worked out better.
A $35m, four-year deal for a 32 second baseman who’d never hit anywhere near that well isn’t a good risk.
Catcher. Ugly all around. When Rene Rivera can have thirty plate appearances and be the high point of the position’s contributions this year, that’s sad.
Catcher ERA
Wilson 3.80
Borders: 3.89
Olivo: 4.79
Rivera 4.03
Wiki: 5.73
Previous research into catcher defense has shown that catcher ERA isn’t a repeatable skill, or at least it’s not showing up easily. That is, a catcher who seems to help his team’s pitcher one year isn’t any more likely to seem to help them the next year compared to someone who hurt them the year before (compared to skills like home run power, where being good at it one year’s an excellent indicator they’ll be good at it the next year).
And yet even as I type that, I think about Olivo and wonder. He seems to constantly get crossed up with his pitchers, for instance. And see Super Reader Paul Covert’s comment below.
The Mariners, as a team, have been awful at catching base stealers (6 for 45). 89% of opposing baserunners are getting there. The break-even point for opposing teams where the extra bases outweigh the value of the outs created is 75%. Every team that faces the Mariners should have everyone with good speed going first-to-second, at least until Borders can get back to throwing out some of them, and Olivo can put that once-feared cannon to use.
Shortstop. Wilson Valdez was helpless with the bat. Pokey was a cheap gamble at short, but he has also been fragile through his career.
The starters. I was worried at the start of the season about this: every pitcher had serious questions and there was little chance that all of them would turn out okay (Pineiro’s the ace everyone thought he’d be! So’s Meche! And Moyer returns to form! Madritsch builds on last season! Someone isn’t awful in the 5th slot!).
What we’ve seen is what we’d most feared: all questions have been answered in the negative. No Mariner starter is above average.
By runs over an average pitcher and Value Over Replacement Pitcher:
Sele, -6, 8.7
Franklin, -7.9, 7.9
Meche, -8.6, 6.5
Moyer, -8.9, 5.8
Pineiro, -12.1, 1.5
Bleaaaaaaaaaaagh.
The team’s best starter is Aaron Sele, who is still significantly worse than an average starter. These guys are mostly Gillick deals: Moyer and his self-negotiated deal (which only Dave seemed to realize was likely to go horribly wrong for the team), Franklin’s almost inexplicable extension, Pineiro’s long-term deal (speaking of which, how come everyone is willing to talk about how Pineiro’s velocity is way down, and how he’s got to learn to pitch without having a good fastball, but no one talks about the why, or what’s wrong? Isn’t that equally important?).
The bench. Once again, the team filled this drawer of the toolbox with a bunch of the same size, low-quality flathead screwdrivers. Bloomquist at least offers something, no matter how small, while Dobbs and Spiezio have nothing to offer the team.
Adrian Beltre. Could be the hamstring, could be the stance, could be his foot injury last year helped him. It could be last year’s performance is a fluke, and that his early years of promise are too far in the past to be considered.
Whaterver the reasons, his performance so far has been awful. A healthy Justin Leone could hit this well.
And it could be he’s coming back around. We gotta hope.
Who not to blame — Raul Ibanez is working out okay. At the time, I criticized this deal as being too much for too long, and I still think the team could have done better than commit to him for a couple of years. But for a couple million dollars a year, it’s gone okay.
The bullpen’s been a heck of a lot more effective than the rotation, even carrying Thornton.
Reed’s doing okay at the plate and contributing in the field. It’s not the great rookie year I’d hoped for, but it’s something to build on for the future.
What happens next?
Boone’ll be gone. Fortunately for us, the Mariners have a lot of good minor league hitters coming up the middle. Lopez should be able to step up and improve that immediately.
Randy Winn and Raul Ibanez could both be back, but it’s likely Winn will be dealt soon (I’m shocked he wasn’t dealt this off-season). This would open up a left-field slot for an exciting prospect tearing it up in Tacoma right now, which at least would make the team more entertaining.
King Felix, if his arm isn’t blown, might be ready to take one of the rotation spots next year. He’s had a strange year in Tacoma, switching between dominance and wildness inning to inning and even batter to batter, and he’s seemed a lot more effective as he gets into games. Maybe Bobby Livingston, though I doubt they’d want to push him that far.
Aaaaaaaaaaaand that’s all we can look forward to. The farm system doesn’t have five starters to revamp the rotation. Then the choice comes to: do you try and discard each of these guys not under contract and gamble that the free agent market will provide just as good or better replacements?
There aren’t a lot of interesting names who’ll be out there, either. Then you’re risking having the pitching equivalent of Wilson Valdez, which would be even worse. The farm system’s total destruction of nearly every pitcher of worth has left the once-seemingly-rich system with few replacement possibilities.
And there’s your 2006 team, much like the 2005 one: a rotation of questions and uncertainty, two positional upgrades (and, we’d hope, Beltre playing better), continued catching problems, and a bullpen that’ll need some patching.
This year’s team should be a step forward to contending again, a lost transition year that might, in punting some players before the deadline, help in 2006 and beyond. But as we approach the break, we can see that there are things to be concerned about, particularly the team’s failure to plan in depth — faced with a rotation of question marks, they needed to stockpile better depth, and failed. They’re likely to face the same problem next year. Whether they’ve learned a lesson from seeing a bad pitcher take the ball every day, all season long, remains to be seen.
Doyle in the News Tribune
Long piece on everyone’s favorite Yoda fan and Rainiers outfielder, including a lot of Jedi analogies (and it’s Dagobah, if anyone at the TNT is out there proofing the article).
“A lot of people would say I try to be different. I’m not conformed. I like individuality. To each his own, and stuff like that.â€Â
Spiezio back, Lopez down, Wiki both
Every possible injury Scott Spiezio may have had is now healed, and he’s back with the big club. Jose Lopez has returned to Tacoma, where he’ll play every day.
Wiki “Pedia” Gonzalez has also returned from the DL and been optioned to Tacoma.
Rogers suspended 20 games
Kenny Rogers has been suspended 20 games and fined (I presume heavily) for knocking around a couple of cameramen before a game. If he appeals (and we should figure he will), he would still start for Texas in Sunday’s game.
Week #14 in Review
Didn’t we just tear down this roster a year ago?
Vital Signs
On this Friday we find the Mariners 33-44. And like a selfish 3-year-old eyeing his favorite Hot Wheels car at play time, they have know violently wrenched last place away from Oakland. “Mine!” They drop three more notches in the standings, now 13.5 back of Anaheim. According to Baseball Prospectus’ adjusted standings, the M’s are underperforming by two and a half games, now. Only the Royals and Devil Rays have fewer third-order wins than the Mariners.
The Mariners have scored 322 runs. Last in the American League. They are hitting .256/.315/.386 compared to the AL average of .266/.329/.420. Their on-base percentage is last in the American League. Their slugging percentage is tied with Oakland for last. Are we sensing a theme yet? They have hit 57 homers: last. Their 211 walks are tied with Baltimore for 10th in the league. Their .255 EqA ranks 26th in all of baseball, tied with the Pirates.
The defense has allowed 349 runs, which makes them the 8th best team in the American League at keeping runs off the board. The gloves are turning 71.3% of balls in play into outs, which is the 3rd best rate in all of baseball. The overall the pitching staff ERA is at 4.36. They have struck out 401 batters (last in the league), walked 265 (3rd highest total in the league) and allowed 82 home runs (the 4th highest total in the league, Safeco Field be damned). The starters are allowing 4.95 runs per nine innnings (12th in the AL), while the relievers are at 3.15 (5th in the AL).
Not a pretty week. The less said the better. They Mariners went 1-5 and were outscored 38-28. Take out last Friday’s lopsided victory, and they were outscored 33-14 in the five straight losses. They were outplayed across the board–out-homered 12-8, out-walked 25-12.
Heroes
Turning it around after two horrid weeks, and just in time for the trade deadline, is Bret Boone, who went 8-for-22 on the week (.364/.417/.773). The shared the team league in hits, home runs (2), walks (2) and RBI (5) and led the team in total bases (17). Maybe the Don Baylor transmogrifier works after all. Or maybe its coincidence.
Hmm… pass.
Not-so-much Heroes
Pat Borders: 2-for-12 with a walk (.167/.214/.167).
Saturday was just a rough day for Aaron Sele. There’s only so many balls one can put in play before they start falling in places they really shouldn’t. Sele allowed 8 Padre runs in 4 innings, including 3 home runs. And this was Petco Park, of all places.
Coming to a stadium near you
So if the Mariners get swept by the team with the worst offense not in Seattle, what happens when the hottest offense in the league comes to town? I shudder at the thought.
Seven of the Rangers starters have double digits in home runs. The Mariners have two. Only Boston has scored more runs than the Rangers. But only the Devil Rays, Yankees and Royals have surrendered more runs. So perhaps all is not as nightmarish for the Mariners as it sounds. The Rangers are 4-8 over the last two weeks against the likes of the Angels, Astros and Nationals.
Freak stat of the day: Since 2002, Chan Ho Park has made 6 starts against the Mariners and compiled a 2.29 ERA. Against all other teams since 2002, his ERA is 6.37.
On Monday, the Mariners travel to Kansas City, where the Royals have scored a measly 12 runs more than Seattle, and their pitching staff is 13th in the league in runs allowed. Will 15,000 show up to any of those three games?
BP/USSM at the Park Update
The outing we mentioned yesterday is now official. Details are below. Seriously, this is going to be an awesome event. Sign up pronto.
Oh, and its not included in the little blurb below, but Jeff Shaw will be there too. He’s reason enough to come. So sign up already.
Come talk baseball, listen to guest speakers and enjoy a day at the
ballpark! Baseball Prospectus author Jonah Keri, BP alums and USS Mariner
authors Derek Zumsteg and Dave Cameron, and a few well-known surprise
guests are hosting a Ballpark Feed at Safeco Field, Saturday July 16 vs.
the Orioles. The event will start at 5 p.m., featuring a sit-down and Q&A
with featured speakers inside the Interview Room at Safeco Field. The game
will follow at 7:05 p.m.Tickets cost $17.50 each, and seats will be located in Section
326, Rows 20-24, in the View Reserved (upper deck) section just to the
first-base side of home plate. The ticket price includes a service charge
for Group Ticket Window, an online system that will enable you to buy and
print your tickets from your home computer.There may be an additional charge for room rental at the park–if there
is, we’ll let you know ASAP.Please RSVP to seattlefeed@yahoo.com if you’d like
to attend. Please indicate the following in your e-mail:1) With a clear number (i.e. 2, 3, 4 etc.), indicate *exactly* how many
people will be going.2) Full names of each attendee (for nametag purposes).
Tickets are limited to 65 total, so please RSVP ASAP. If you’ve already
e-mailed to express initial interest, we will count that e-mail as an RSVP
(requiring payment for tickets), unless we receive a cancellation notice.
We will provide details on how to obtain your tickets once we’ve reached
our limit of 65. We will also provide instructions on how to get to the
Interview Room and other details a few days before the game.
When too much is a good thing
Adrian Beltre smoked his first home run of June in the 4th inning last night.
“I’ve been taking too many pitches,” so he says (Hickey, P-I).
Mr. Beltre makes an excellent case in that one must swing the bat to put it over the fence. But then, to a fellow with a career .329 on-base percentage (and presently .301 on the year), I might recommend taking a couple of more.
Beltre is finishing up his best month as a Mariner thus far. Somebody give him a cookie.
April – .258/.284/.361
May – .216/.245/.353
June – .312/.386/.442
The difference? 9 walks in June compared to 3 in each April and May. Here’s a breakdown comparing his strikeouts-per-at-bat and walks-per-at-bat month by month in 2005, along with his career totals and his career 2004 season…
Trade updates, plus something random
A bit about a potential Boone trade to the Twins in this Pioneer Press column. Don’t both clicking the link unless you don’t believe me, since this is the entirety of the item in blockquote, but if you do, it’s username: tkedwards@mailinator.com password: morris
The Seattle Mariners, by the way, might be willing to pay most of second baseman Bret Boone’s $9.25 million salary this year if the Twins would give up a marginal prospect in a trade.
This lets me weigh in on a topic that’s been percolating in the comments. I think if the choice is between paying Boone’s salary and gettting a prospect, or simply getting the other team to pick up the tab, the M’s ought to do the former. From a fan’s perspective, we know that the budget allegedly is zeroed out at the end of any given year. If they aren’t going to use the millions they save to improve the team next year, at least the team should get a guy with a chance to contribute.
On the Randy Winn trade front, a bit of news from Newday. The Yankees, looking for a centerfielder, sent two scouts to the M’s-A’s series to watch Randy Winn and Mark Kotsay, but they don’t feel like they have a fit with the M’s for Winn.
I’m not surprised there is no fit to be had with the Yankees. They don’t have much in the minor leagues to give up, and they’re tethered to most of their major league contracts.
Random Schadenfreude: I’m not sure I believe this or not, but that won’t prevent me from passing it on. It’s what every non-Yankee fan wants to believe is going on.
Baseball sites thread on Metafilter
Many of you are probably familiar with Metafilter, one of the first community weblogs. It’s an interesting community of shared links.
Recently, the site has added an “Ask MeFi” page where members can post a question for which other members provide informed answers. In a group of 24,000+, you’d be amazed the wide array of expertise that exists there.
Baseball site expertise is included, apparently, since yesterday saw a cool thread about “what are the best national pastime sites on the Internet“?
There are a lot of great suggestions in the thread, some of which you’ll definitely know about (Prospectus, Baseball Reference) and others you may not (such as other baseball blogs). Many of the suggestions I can personally vouch for as awesome, like Baseball Toaster and Baseball Analysts. This also seems like a good way to track down some new gems you might have overlooked, so have a look if you’re so inclined.
Even if you aren’t a Metafilter member, you can read the site for free. You only have to be a MeFite to post. I know at least one other MeFite reads this humble blog, since there’s a USSM mention in the thread (and many thanks for that, by the way).
Happy hunting!