The day in tidbits
Rumor roundup:
PI: Guardado to Boston discussions “preliminary”. Boone may head to the Padres, Twins, Nationals, but no sources.
Times: Ichiro may compete in the home run derby (which this year has been made even lamer by forcing it into a nationalistic competition).
The PI has this fine Doyle quote on his return to the majors after three years:
“Same game,” he said. “Ninety feet to first. Keep it simple.”
Snelling was also named to the Pacific Coast League All-Star game, though like injured King Felix, he’s not going to show.
From the Seattle Times, this made me think of Miller’s Crossing:
Instead of meeting with the inconsistent Gil Meche yesterday, manager Mike Hargrove let pitching coach Bryan Price handle the discussion. Both Hargrove and Price laughed when it was noted that Price and Meche went to sit into the stands for the talk and Price came back alone.
Game 83, Mariners at Royals
RHP Sele v Runlevys Hernandez.
The rumor is this’ll be Snelling’s first start, which would probably mean either Ibanez or Winn will sit. It’s also possible that Hargrove will write Snelling into the lineup card, batting #3, and then pinch-hit for him with Olivo.
I’m still a little mad about last night’s quite stupid move.
Pioneer Press floats Boone-for-Lohse trial balloon
If you’ve noticed a wealth of posts about potential trades over the last few days, that’s because it’s more interesting than continually bemoaning the cruel fate of backing a losing team.
Usually, I’m loath to speculate about what the Mariners might get in a deal. The market fluctuates naturally, GMs have different perceptions of player value, and I have no inside information to speak of. Most of what you see bandied about in these stories is more chaff than wheat. Today affords us a perfect example.
Bret Boone: the Twins have no interest … and yet, the Twins also want to get him and start him!
From Finnigan:
Minnesota, which had been hinted as a suitor, said it had no interest. Although Luis Rivas is having an off-year, the Twins reportedly are placing their faith in Nick Punto, whose lead asset is hustle.
From the Pioneer Press:
If three-time all-star Bret Boone isn’t the Twins’ starting second baseman next week, it won’t be for lack of making a run at the suddenly available Gold Glove infielder.
The Twins appear to be in the middle of the pursuit of Boone … “I’m not going to deny anything right now,” said Terry Ryan, the Twins’ typically tight-lipped general manager, when asked about pursuing Boone. “I’ve got to keep everything going.”
Maybe Finnigan’s statement that Minnesota said it had no interest refers to the state, not the ball club.
These two disparate reports should serve as enough of a caveat. Believe rumors at your own risk.
Still, the Pioneer Press story is enough to get an M’s fan’s blood percolating, in a good way. It says that if the Mariners will pick up the tab for the rest about Boone’s season (about $4.5 million), the Twins might be willing to deal a pitcher or an outfield prospect.
Specifically, the article floats the possibility of Kyle Lohse. This is a deal that I would do in a heartbeat.
Lohse is no world-beater — he has career numbers similar to Gil Meche’s, and we’ve seen how frustrating Meche can be — but he’s durable, is going to be 27 in December and would fill a hole in the 2006 Grand Canyon of a rotation the M’s are looking at.
The only current starter virtually guaranteed to be on the club is Joel Pineiro, and he’s at serious risk of getting injured or being bad. I’d bet Franklin will be back, but that means right now we’re looking at Franklin, Pineiro and Felix, with maybe Madritsch if he gets healthy. Lohse’s strikeout rate has dipped a bit, but he’s also walking fewer batters. His 2.44 K/BB this year beats any current Mariners starter.
For the price — a player you’re going to cut loose anyway, and money you’re not going to put back in the club next year — I think this is a move you make if it’s on the table. That’s especially true given a dearth of free agent pitchers to get excited about in the coming offseason.
Trading Value
In one of the threads yesterday, there was a discussion about the pros and cons of trading Raul Ibanez. Considering how strong we came out against the Ibanez signing and how easy it is to find a servicable designated hitter, one would probably expect that we would support shipping Raul out of town. After all, he’s 33 years old, under contract for $4.3 million next year, and he doesn’t walk that often or hit the ball out of the park very much.
Well, despite our protestations against the signing, Ibanez has just hit, hit, and hit some more since signing. He’s currently sporting a .298 EqA, highest on the team, and his VORP puts him 4th in baseball among DHs behind David Ortiz, David Dellucci, and Travis Hafner. If you want to compare him to left fielders, his EqA puts him in the same league as Pat Burrell, Ryan Klesko, Carlos Lee, Kevin Mench, and Cliff Floyd.
We talk a lot about replacement level and how easy it is to find a DH to play for peanuts. But if you trade Raul Ibanez and replace him with a guy like Josh Phelps, you’re losing around 30 runs over the course of a season. The 2006 Mariners cannot afford to lose 30 runs off their offense, and even if they wisely spend the $4 million that trading Ibanez would free up, the odds of them finding another player capable of posting a .300 EqA in Safeco Field for that kind of cash are somewhere between slim and none.
The M’s stink, there’s no question about that. But they can’t waive the white flag on 2006 right now. After two abysmal seasons, they have to be at least decent next year. Trading Raul Ibanez for a mid tier prospect will almost certainly make the 2006 Mariners a worse team, and the kind of player you’d expect to get back for him doesn’t justify making that maneuver.
We were against the Ibanez deal when it went down, but there’s no question that we were dead wrong. He’s been way better than advertised, and right now, he’s an indispensible part of the offense. The organization doesn’t have a good way to replace him internally, and its unlikely they could match his performance at his salary level in the free agent market.
Trade Randy Winn. Trade Eddie Guardado. But hang on to Raul Ibanez. Two years ago, I’d never have imagined saying this, but he’s too big of a bargain and too valuable to let go.
Another BP/USSM at the Park update
I just wanted to give you guys an update on the USS Mariner/Baseball Prospectus
trip to Safeco. We posted this Friday afternoon, but for those of you who may have
taken off early for the weekend and only check the blog from “work”, we didn’t want
you to miss out. Details below.
Come talk baseball, listen to guest speakers and enjoy a day at the
ballpark! Baseball Prospectus author Jonah Keri, BP alums and USS Mariner
authors Derek Zumsteg and Dave Cameron, and a few well-known surprise
guests are hosting a Ballpark Feed at Safeco Field, Saturday July 16 vs.
the Orioles. The event will start at 5 p.m., featuring a sit-down and Q&A
with featured speakers inside the Interview Room at Safeco Field. The game
will follow at 7:05 p.m.Game Tickets in our section cost $17.50 each, and seats will be located in Section
326, Rows 20-24, in the View Reserved (upper deck) section just to the
first-base side of home plate. The ticket price includes a small service charge
for Group Ticket Window, an online system that will enable you to buy and
print your tickets from your home computer.There will be an additional fee to cover the cost of renting the facility and providing
refreshments during the feed. An exact cost will be determined shortly, but we will work
to keep the price as low as possible. Expect it to fall in the $10-15 range.Please RSVP to seattlefeed@yahoo.com if you’d like
to attend. Please indicate the following in your e-mail:1) With a clear number (i.e. 2, 3, 4 etc.), indicate *exactly* how many
people will be going.2) Full names of each attendee (for nametag purposes).
There are only 25 spots or so remaining, so please RSVP ASAP. If you’ve already
e-mailed to express initial interest, we will count that e-mail as an RSVP
(requiring payment for tickets), unless we receive a cancellation notice.
We will provide details on how to obtain your tickets once we’ve reached
our limit of 65. We will also provide instructions on how to get to the
Interview Room and other details a few days before the game.
Mets Interested in Boone?
Speculation in Newsday about the Mets possibly bringing in Bret Boone to fill in for/supplant Kaz Matsui. A choice excerpt:
Kaz Matsui’s transition to second base has made the position a question mark for the Mets, and Boone would be considered an upgrade if he could solve his hitting problems.
Wouldn’t virtually any bad hitter be an upgrade if they could solve their hitting problems?
Mariner All-Stars
Ichiro Suzuki, reserve OF. Didn’t even make the starting lineup, which is shocking. Annnnd… that is all. Eddie Guardado’s omission is a surprise. Joe Nathan gets on but not Guardado? I don’t get it.
Big what’s up to my man Snelling
“Size matters not. Look at me. Judge me by my size, do you?”
— Yoda
I didn’t find out they called up Snelling until after today’s game, and I’m almost glad, because it means I didn’t sit there all game hoping to see him only to be disappointed. Now I have something to watch for every game.
I broke my Snelling jersey out of the closet, where it’s been patiently waiting for the last couple of years, coming out only for USSM gatherings. He’s taken #32, same as last time, which makes me happy, because I don’t have to order a second one.
I don’t know what happens now — if Doyle’s going to get the Choo treatment, or if Winn’s about to be moved to make room for him to get regular playing time. I certainly hope he’s not just a replacement Dobbs-style bat, because he needs to get his playing time more than anyone else in the system.
But this is a big step.
In this year’s BP, I wrote
First, let me note that I’m a huge fan of Snelling, and there is nothing I want more in baseball than for him to become durable, healthy, and enjoy a brilliant career.
Snelling is like Nick Johnson if Nick Johnson was raised in Australia, lithe, shorter, with a little less power and walks.
And yet… my appreciation for Snelling has deepened. Because he’s friendly, funny, has an accent, and was into Yoda, his reputation was fluffy and light-weight, more a novelty story than an interesting and potentially good player. With continued health problems his story’s been dismissed, but Snelling’s still out there, fighting his way through rehab, avoiding sharp objects, with no one writing about him.
There’s no way to say whether Snelling’s ever going to be healthy enough to progress, or if the lost development time’s too great a deficit to overcome. But I want to see what happens next nearly as much as Snelling does. As you read this, he’s in rehab or… wait… no, he’s hurt himself again. Dammit.
That last part was weirdly prescient, as he went on the DL when the book came out (part of why I went into Doyle-mode).
Even that write-up, though, doesn’t cover it. Some prospects never become what they might because they’re lazy, or they don’t have the patience or pain endurance to come back from injuries. Snelling, this funny, cool, laid-back seeming guy, has been unstoppable. Fate keeps knocking him down and he gets up and returns to working towards getting back into the game.
As Mariner fans, we’re a little spoiled from having seen the almost effortless ascent of stars like Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez, guys with immense natural talent who were blessed with good health early in their careers. And as much as I enjoyed watching them, I admire Snelling more for his perseverence and his humility and self-confidence in the face of so many serious setbacks.
I don’t know what happens next, if Winn or Ibanez gets moved to open up some LF/DH playing time, or what the team has in mind. But if you’re a hard-core Mariner fan, someone who’s followed the ups and downs of the franchise and its players and take joy in the victories and triumphs of the good guys, this is a fine day.
Go get ’em, Chris.
And folks, if you want to spot me at a Mariners game, I’m one of two people at the park wearing a huge grin and a jersey with “Snelling” on the back.
Game 80, Rangers at Mariners
8:5 odds — Rangers win
2:1 odds — Mariners win
Even — Kenny Rogers finds a 4 foot, nine inch groundskeeper to attack
1:05 p.m. start for the new-look M’s.
Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes
Bret Boone has been DFA’d. Jose Lopez is back up from Tacoma.
Dave Hansen is on the DL. And Doyle is up from Tacoma.