Game 62, Phillies at Mariners
Last year, before we implemented comments, I did several running game diaries that were fairly popular. This year, we’ve usually ended up just adding into the comments if we’re watching along, but a few people have said they missed the in-post running diaries, so we get one again tonight.
Jon Lieber vs Gil Meche. Liebery, by the way, has given up 18 home runs already, on pace for allowing 45 on the season. Even weirder? He’s a groundball pitcher, and has allowed just 94 fly balls this year. Safeco and the M’s offense could be just what the doctor ordered for Mr. Lieber.
Oh, and Dave Hansen’s starting for Beltre at third tonight.
7:00 pm pacific “You can’t believe how great it is to get out of the heat and the humidity of the east coast and get back to Seattle…”
Screw you, Dave.
7:01 “Gil Meche is going to have to keep the ball down…”
I’m now convinced that Ron Fairly is dead. He’s been replaced by a hologram, and they’re simply playing a loop of his five favorite phrases.
7:08 Jimmy Rollins, the Phillies leadoff hitter, just got a 5 year, $40 million contract. When he’s at at his best, he’s league average. I know its not easy to find a shortstop, but man, that’s a bad deal.
7:10 “They don’t want to have play with 24 men much longer…”
I would argue they’ve been playing with about a 21 man roster all year.
7:11 “There’s a scout… who thinks that Bobby Abreu is the best player in the game.”
Bobby Abreu is a great, underappreciated player, but anyone who thinks he’s the best player in baseball needs to find a new line of work.
7:20 1,000 hits for Ichiro in the majors. I remember when Alvin Davis got his 1,000 career hit as a Mariner, and how big a deal that was.
7:25 Gil Meche with a strikeout! In other life occurrances, hell hath frozen over.
7:27 When he was coming up through the minors, I told everyone that would listen that Chase Utley was overrated, that he had holes in his swing, and that he’d be lucky to have a career like Todd Walkers. Whoops. Utley’s one of the better young players in the game.
7:30 The M’s have their #5, #6, and #7 hitters coming up. Their slugging percentages are .368, .378, and .154 respectively.
7:32 “Everybody goes through slumps… but eventually, he’s going to come out of it.”
Why is it so hard for people to admit that Bret Boone is just finished as a productive player. He’s 36 years old at a position where hall of famers are done at 32 or 33. Boone’s in a slump the same way Mike Tyson is in a slump. He’s not coming out of it.
7:38 M’s up 2-0 thanks to a single, a bloop double, an error, and a flyout. Not exactly stinging the baseball, but they’ll take the runs.
7:45 I’m not saying that attendance is sparce, but Reed runs the ball down in right center field, then flips the ball into the stands, where both fans fought for the ball.
7:50 Ooh, an in game managerial interview. Those are fun…
7:59 It only took him an hour, but Fairly busts out the “four runs or more” logic. I’m telling you, it’s a hologram, and he’s a tape.
8:02 In case we didn’t hear him the first time he was batting, Thome wants to hit the fastball, according to Ron. I’d imagine we’ll hear this every time he comes to the plate, all series long.
8:10 Whats the point of stopping when trying to steal? Ever?
8:19 It’s pretty rare to see that many called third strikes, especially on breaking balls. The Phillies are taking their patient approach a bit too far.
8:23 Ron Fairly leaves, Dave Henderson replaces him. That’s like passing kidney stones and then being told that you need a colonoscopy.
8:25 Argh! Ichiro shows a bunt on the first pitch with a runner at second and one out. He should be fined 100,000,000 yen every time he bunts with a runner in scoring position. I hate that play.
8:34 Not including the hits tonight, Raul Ibanez is hitting .310/.385/.535 against right-handed pitching this year.
8:35 Fine, it worked, but I still hate bunting with runners in scoring position.
8:46 It might not be a beautiful swing, but maybe that home run will get Hansen elevated past Greg Dobbs on the totem poll of bad bench players.
8:56 It was nice to see Meche throw strikes and get ahead of hitters for 8 innings. But, despite what the papers and announcers will tell you, he didn’t flash the kind of dominating potential everyone claims he has. Just four strikeouts, and a lot of flyball outs. That’s not a recipe for long term success.
9:04 I’d just like to point out that, if Eddie Guardado can get 3 outs in the 9th, the Mariners will fail to score four runs and still win.
9:10 A win! And a two hour win at that. Nice job fellas.
What’s Wrong With Ichiro
For the first time since May 12, 2004, Ichiro’s batting average is under .300. He’s 7 for 42 in June, following up a poor May, and we haven’t seen Ichiro! be Ichiro! in nearly six weeks. With the offense struggling, all eyes go to the team’s best hitter. And, of course, theories abound, and everyone seems to keep asking the same question. What’s wrong with Ichiro?
Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Since 2002, these are Ichiro’s batting averages by month:
.316/.404/.353/.321/.282/.248/.243/.389/.386/.342/.242/.273/.255/.400/.274/.432/.463/.373/.356/.288/.167
Not including this month, Ichiro has had eight months in which he hit less than .300. That’s 40 percent of the months played. It should be expected that, in any given year, Ichiro has at least two months where he hits .300 or below.
Look at those variances above. From .243 to .389. .342 to .242. .255 to .400 to .274 to .432. Ichiro is what he is; consistently inconsistent.
We shouldn’t be surprised by this. In his major league career, 81 percent of his hits have been singles. That’s an astounding figure. The league average in 2004 was 66 percent. Only a few guys in baseball rely on the single as much as Ichiro. Luis Castillo, the biggest singler in the game, sees the same type of huge monthly swings in his average.
Singles, are, by nature, the least reliable type of hit. The difference between an infield single and a 6-3 putout is usually a tenth of a second. A ball finding a hole might get under the fielders glove by less than an inch. Have a run of balls that just don’t quite find the hole and all of the sudden, your singles are outs and you’re hitting .250. Extra base knocks, however, are almost always hits, and a player who drives the ball will be far less suceptible to the swings of random variation.
Every time Ichiro goes through a prolonged slump like this, new theories arise. Remember when the Yankees had figured out how to pitch him down and in? As human beings, we like answers, so we try to figure out what Ichiro is doing differently, what he’s doing wrong, what he needs to fix. We don’t like that the answer is random variation. It’s not a satisfying conclusion, and it doesn’t make us seem like minds who understand the game. Random variation is very real, though, and while it may not be a sexy explanation, it is the correct one.
Ichiro is going to have months where he hits .270. He’s also going to have months where he hits .450. He’s a player of extremes, probably the most valuable in the game when he’s going well and replacement level when he’s not. You live with months like May because you know a month like August of 2004 is coming. With Ichiro, you take the good with the bad, because in the end, it’s an extremely valuable package.
Getting to competitive
The Mariners are 9.5 games behind the Angels right now. If the Angels slack off and play .500 baseball from now until the end of the year, they’ll finish at 86-76. If the Mariners take a much larger step up to play .500 ball, they’ll finish at 76-86. The Rangers playing .500 gets them to 84-78.
The Mariners, to meet a stumbling Angels, would need to win 60% of their games for the rest of their season. That’d be a tremendous turnaround, and let’s be frank — even if we call Felix up and he’s the best pitcher on the staff, even if they find out Beltre’s been replaced by an evil robot and the real Beltre is freed from captivity (where he was able to keep his skills up and so on), and Ichiro goes back to being Ichiro! there isn’t a .600 team in this Mariners squad, struggling to get out.
There’s nothing that says the Mariners can’t or won’t make up a ten-game margin over a hundred games. But the odds are stacked so far against the team being competitive this year that it’s reasonable to give up on that.
Moves intended to make the team more competitive this year, at any cost to the next good Mariner team, should be avoided. I understand they’re probably feeling enormous pressure to scrape for the break-even mark any way they can, but I’d be much happier knowing the front office was looking to build a good team in the long-term than knowing my late-season tickets might keep the gap on the division leaders under ten games.
Game 61, Mariners at Nationals
The most painful part of last night’s postgame show was Mike Blowers trying to to defend the decision to send up Greg Dobbs to pinch-hit in the seventh inning when a fly ball would have tied the game.
As you might expect, his first argument was the tired canard that “this is a hard job, to sit around for a while and then have to hit without getting warm.” (Strangely, some players appear to be able to do this better than other players. I wonder why that is?)
Bizarrely, he followed that up with a “maybe Grover was saving his better pinch-hitters for the eighth or ninth inning, for when you really need to get a run home.” I swear I am not making that up.
It would be cheating to include a pitcher in the following comparison, so I’ll just present the following lines:
.152 .171 .212
.145 .174 .236
One player is the Mariners’ first pinch-hitter off the bench. The other was sent to the minor leagues for his wretched hitting. You guessed it, you’re looking at Greg Dobbs and Miguel Olivo.
Consider the depressing lessons, if any, in today’s game thread. Ryan Franklin (2-7, 4.77 ERA) versus Junior Armas (2-3, 4.91 ERA). TV: FSN. Radio: Komo.
Jeff Clement pic
Below the “more” tag. Thanks to Jon Wells from the Grand Salami.
Week #11 in Review
Bring on the interleague craziness!
It took the Mariners the entire month of May to win two series. Not only have they won their first two series in June, they’ve now won four in a row.
Vital Signs
On this Friday we find the Mariners 26-32, sitting firmly in third place. They still find themselves in third place in the AL West, and gained a game on the division-leading Angels, who now sit 7.5 games over the M’s. The adjusted standings over at Baseball Prospectus suggest the Mariners are a little less than a game unlucky. Lady luck is finally beginning to shine her face on the M’s as they have now won 8 of their last 11, including a record of 6-1 in games decided by just one run in those games.
The offense is tied with the Royals for 11th in the league, scoring 249 runs, comparable also to the Tigers and A’s. Their 40 home runs rank 13th in the league and their 167 walks tie them for 7th, square between divison leaders Chicago and Baltimore. Meanwhile, their .316 on-base percentage ranks 11th and their .383 slugging percentage ranks 13th. As a team, they are hitting .254/.316/.383 compared to the American League average of .260/.330/.414. While the Mariners are getting their hits at about the league average (thank you, Mr. Ichiro!), their ability to draw walks and hit for power are still lagging far behind the rest of the league. Their .258 EqA ranks 23rd in all of baseball.
The defense has allowed 267 runs, which makes them the 8th best team in the American League at keeping runs off the board. The gloves are turning 71.3% of balls in play into outs, which is the 4th best rate in the American League. Overall, the pitching staff is looking league average, with a staff ERA of 4.43. The starters continue to slowly shave the runs of their ERA, trimming it down to a 5.09 ERA, while the bullpen continues to be solid with a 3.12 ERA.
May we please continue with opponents with aquatic mascots? The Mariners took 4 of 6 from the Devil Rays and Marlins, despite outscoring them just 29-25. While they hit just 3 home runs all week (thank you, Mr. Ibanez), the pitching staff allowed just a pair of long balls. And, they were out-walked 22-15. For the week, they hit .271/.332/.386.
Good contact. Bad contact over the fence.
Heroes
Raul Ibanez continues his hot hitting, going 9-for-23 (.391/.417/.696) with a double and a pair of home runs. He led the team in total bases (16) and RBI (6). If there’s any word of caution in regards to Ibanez, its that his recent hot streak is mostly batting average-driven. He has just 5 walks over the last two weeks.
And congratulations goes out to Mike Morse, for not only collecting his first major league hit, but a perfect 7. He went 7-for-18 (.389/.450/.500).
Aaron Sele made a pair of starts and allowed just 15 batters the courtesy of first base in 12+ innings. While he walked only 1 in those starts en route to a total of 4 runs, he struck out only 5. I’ll take those wins while I can get ’em, but I ain’t pinning my future hopes to it.
Not-so-much Heroes
From too-hot-to-handle to too-cold-to-hold, Jeremy Reed went just 1-for-14 (.071/.071/.143), the only consolation being his one hit was a double.
Gil Meche walked 5 Marlins in 5 innings in a 5-4 loss Wednesday night. It was his roughest outing since the end of April. He allowed 4 runs.
Coming to a stadium near you
As a former resident of both Snohomish County and Fairfax County, this is the matchup I’ve been waiting for. Nationals vs. Mariners. And I’m still lamenting that the year I move from the DC area, not only does the District get a team, but also the Mariners play in RFK.
The streaking Nats have won 7 straight and sit atop the NL East, despite a run differential of -3. I saw Washington play in Cincinnati two weeks ago, and this is a team that struggles as mightily as the Mariners to score runs. They’re 13th in their league in scoring. It’s the pitching that’s carrying the Nationals, but the Mariners will miss out on staff ace and workhorse Livan Hernandez. Instead, they’ll see Tomo Ohka (54 IP, 11.1 VORP), John Patterson (53 IP, 17.8 VORP) and Tony Armas (37 IP, 3.2 VORP).
You thought the Mariners had troubles with the bottom third of their lineup. The Nats are getting an OPS of .623, .641 and .493 from the bottom third of their order (understandably, that is a pitcher at #9).
And just for kicks, consider this: Livan Hernandez is hitting .206/.229/.324 in 34 at bats. All Mariner pinch hitters are “hitting” .237/.256/.316 in 38 at bats. The Nationals’ pitching staff has 2 home runs. The Mariners’ bench has 0.
Next, the Mariners will host the similarly streaking Philadelphia Phillies. They Phils have won 7 of their last 8 series, including 13 of their last 15 games. Their offense is second only to the Cardinals in the National League, despite Jim Thome only hitting .205/.365/.333.
Last week, the Mariners caught the Devil Rays, and let’s face it, they’re still the Devil Rays, and the Marlins, who are struggling as of late. This next week will show a truer test of what the Mariners are or are not capable of doing on the field.
Ryan Drese
So, the P-I notebook this morning contains the following blurb:
According to club sources, the Mariners are discussing whether to make a waiver claim on right-handed pitcher Ryan Drese. He was the Texas starting pitcher on Opening Day, but was designated for assignment Wednesday by the Rangers. Any team in baseball can claim him by the end of business today. However, any team that does so will have to pay Drese the remainer of the $700,000 he’s owed for this year and his $1.75 million contract for 2006.
Ugh. Ryan Ludwick isn’t their kind of player, but Ryan Drese tickles their fancy? Look at this:
ERA, by year: 6.55, 6.85, 4.20, 6.46. Career: 5.36.
K/9, by year: 6.68, 5.09, 4.25, 2.58(!). Career: 4.89
BB/K, by year: 1.65, 1.08, 1.69, 0.83. Career: 1.48
Opposing hitters, by year: .317/.386/.494, .314/.404/.500, .285/.339/.409, .334/.390/.470.
He’s an extreme groundball pitcher with mediocre control who doesn’t miss bats. He’s Dan Reichert’s twin, who we got to spring training on a non-guaranteed minor league deal, and then released. There’s no reason to want Drese on the roster. At a guaranteed $1.75 million next year, the fact that they’re even considering it is scary.
Just say no to Ryan Drese.
Hey now
That’s 8 out of 11 for the boys in blue.
Game 58, Mariners at Marlins
The Mariners try to reel in the fish (hey, you knew someone had to say it eventually) tonight in the final game of a three-game series. After this, the sublime magic of interleague play continues with a slate of games against the Senators/Gnats.
Aaron “Slow Hand” Sele versus Josh Beckett tonight. TV FSN, Radio KOMO.
Positivity corner: at least Beckett throws with his right arm.
PI bit, other good stuff
How many runs do you need to win?
And, as always — if you want these columns to keep going, or if you’d like to see this stuff in print, a totally random passer-by offered places you can write to express your opinions.
In the PI notebook, Boone is trying to lay off the high cheese.
“It’s been an Achilles’ heel for much of his career,” Hargrove said. “Now he’s trying to stay off high pitches. When he does that, the pitches he’ll get to swing at will be better.”
Woooooo!!!
Also as part of their fine draft coverage, Baseball America has the Mariner team draft up.
It’s cool to just browse through. Clement, five pitchers (one out of high school), two college 3B, a Puerto Rican OF… of their 48 picks, fully half were college players.