Take a Mulligan
We’ve all written things we’d like to have back. Being wrong is part of the opinion-proferring gig.
I’ll speculate that at season’s end Jon Paul Morosi will not be happy he wrote this, his piece of a week ago about how Aaron Sele has turned the corner. Of course, this was written before Sele’s last (poor) start, and I almost posted something then, but I think an examination of the emerging narrative is still worthwhile.
The article makes the case that Sele’s slower delivery has been helping him out. It also makes a bit of an excuse for him when we’re told that Sele’s worst starts have been against hot-hitting teams. This is not strictly true, but it helps to advance the narrative that, even when he’s been off, Sele hasn’t been as terrible as our eyes have told us.
This is my favorite part, though. Later in the article we advance the “Pat Borders, Miracle Worker” plotline that has been filling broadcast airtime ad nauseum.
Though the sample sizes are small, the statistics are telling:
When throwing to Borders, he is 2-0 with a 0.57 ERA in two starts.
When throwing to Miguel Olivo, he is 2-2 with a 5.58 ERA in six starts.
When throwing to Dan Wilson, he is 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA in two starts.
“Anytime you can have someone with 20 years of experience as your direct working partner, it’s a great support,” Sele said.
But … but I thought Sele’s bad starts were the result of pitching to Angel and Yankee hitters, not the absence of veteran savvy from that whippersnapper Dan Wilson! To J.P.’s credit, at least he throws Danny Boy under one bus tire and Miguel Olivo under the other instead of leaving Olivo lonely.
We’re all thrilled when the Mariners get an effective start out of one of their pitchers. We’re all rooting for Sele. Let’s not get wacky and say that three good starts in ten or eleven chances mean he’s figured it out. By contrast, whenever anyone asks Mike Hargrove if the team’s turned the corner, he gives words to the effect of “ask me in three weeks.” Would that it were otherwise, but at season’s end, Morosi may wish he’d taken a similar tack in the paper.
For those of you who think I’m just posting this now in a craven reverse-jinx attempt to jump-start Sele’s mojo for his start tonight, I’ll just say this: I don’t mind being wrong.
Game 57, Mariners at Marlins
RHP Gil Meche v LHP Dontrelle Willis. 4:05, ESPN2 and FSN.
Local writer called out in today’s press notes:
Did you know that six NL teams have not yet visited Safeco Field?… can you (Larry Stone) name them?… that’s right: from tne NL Central Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Milwaukee (that’s sort of a trick answer) and from the NL East New York, Philadelphia and Florida have not been to the house that Beinfest (helped) build…
Soriano, Pokey on the mend
With the Mariners in the midst of a three-game winning streak, it may be an overdose of good news to note Rafael Soriano’s progress. Too much positivity is a rare problem these days, though, so it’s worth noting. Soriano is throwing 90-94, and hopes to be ready after the All-Star break.
Pokey Reese is also healing, and looks to be on a six- to eight-week timetable. How he fits into the lineup depends upon what happens during that stretch.
Jeff Clement
Here’s a rundown on the Mariners first round selection Jeff Clement.
6’1, 210 lbs, bats left, throws right, catcher, University of Southern California
Tools Ratings (20-80 scale)
Hitting for Average: 50 (present), 60 (future)
Hitting for Power: 70 (present), 80 (future)
Throwing: 50 (present), 65 (future)
Fielding: 40 (present), 60 (future)
Running: 35 (present), 35 (future)
Strengths:
Extremely strong, powerful hitter with serious longball potential. Has a great eye and an approach at the plate. Can hit in the major leagues very soon. Improved defensively this year. Works hard. Smart kid.
Weaknesses:
Can be too selective at the plate. Isn’t extremely agile. Just average release. Not a great athlete. Doesn’t cover the entire plate as well as he could.
Overall:
If all goes well, he’s a middle of the order masher, Jason Varitek with more power offensively. The comparisons to Piazza are over the top, as baseball’s never had a catcher hit like Piazza in the history of the game. He’s not considered a great defensive catcher, but most people expect him to be able to stick behind the plate. Catchers are high risk selections, but the payoff could be huge. It’s a high risk, high reward selection, but the M’s have to be hoping that Clement is fighting for the team’s starting catching job by spring of 2007.
Draft Coverage
The M’s will be selecting in approximately three hours, so this post will be continuously updated throughout the day as we hear things.
1:08 pm
Jeff Clement is the M’s pick.
1:08 pm
Gordon to KC. Darn.
1:07 pm
Upton #1 to Arizona.
12:30 pm eastern
At this point, all indications lead to the first two picks being Justin Upton and Alex Gordon, with the M’s then choosing between Jeff Clement or Troy Tulowitzki with the third pick.
10:30 am eastern
Having talked with two members of the Diamondbacks organization and getting input from several others who have as well, there seems to be almost no chance that Arizona passes on Justin Upton. He’s a pretty near lock to go #1.
9:45 am eastern
Baseball America has projected the M’s to select Jeff Clement, a catcher from USC, with the third selection, after Justin Upton and Alex Gordon go #1 and #2 overall. Clement has gotten a lot of late buzz, as the M’s ideally would love to have a power hitting left-handed catcher, and Clement’s power is nearly on par with that of Gordon’s. However, there is wide disagreement in the game as who the third best player in this draft is, and the M’s have certainly not locked themselves into Clement. They’re hoping and praying that Upton or Gordon fall, but it appears that Clement has an edge over Tulowitzki as the consolation prize. Nothing is concrete at the moment. No one is certain what Arizona or KC are going to do, and there’s still a non-zero chance that the M’s get one of the two highest ranked players on their board.
Oh, good
Interleague play is back. When did that happen?
Draft coverage from the News Tribune
The Tacoma News Tribune’s got a nice Corey Brock piece up on the draft worth checking out.
Scouting
Jon Paul Morosi has some good stuff in the P-I this morning. I especially recommend his piece on Grady Fuson, who I’ve said a number of good things about on the blog over the years. Fuson should absolutely be running an organization right now, and I’d be thrilled if it was ours.
Diamondbacks to pass on Upton, Gordon?
Both Tracy Ringolsby and the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jim Salisbury say that the Diamondbacks are likely to take a college pitcher instead of Justin Upton or Alex Gordon. The reasoning goes that the Snakes intend to keep the recently-signed Stephen Drew at shortstop, making another blue-chip young shortstop redundant.
From Ringolsby: [Registration: westsmith1@comcast.net, x223344]
With [Stephen] Drew under contract, however, and new ownership having a valid concern about the lack of depth in the Diamondbacks’ farm system, particularly with pitching, scouting director Mike Rizzo apparently has been directed to pursue a college pitcher.
This is good and bad news for Mariner fans coveting either Upton or Gordon. It’s obviously good if these guys are right, since both project the M’s to take Upton. The flip side is that the Royals are apparently locked in on Gordon, financial worries be damned. If the Diamondbacks do take Upton — which a New York Times article indicates is still a strong possibility — then the M’s would miss out.
I also have to quote this from Ringolsby, just because he calls Bavasi “Billy.”
Upton figures to wind up going No. 3 to Seattle, where current general manager Billy Bavasi and former general manager-turned-special-assistant Pat Gillick long have expressed desires to take high-reward draft choices.
The speculation ends soon enough.
Schwarz on Best/Worst Draft Picks
There’s a two-edged sword to writing a group blog in tandem with bright people. On the one hand, you’re always learning, and you want to rise to the occasion of others’ good posts with solid efforts of your own. But then you see a bunch of great stuff you don’t want to knock off the front page.
So I’ll save my longer material for next week and offer instead this quick hit. In advance of the draft next week, check out the always reliable Alan Schwarz’ rundown of the best and worst high draft picks. The Mariners make the list in a couple of places, with A-Rod deservedly at No. 1, and with an anecdote about Tito Nanni that you may find amusing.