Since the rivers of optimism are flowing (seriously, when was the last time the entire blogosphere was a good mood? Last summer?), let me make another suggestion that would make me jump for joy.
Usually, you won’t see us campaigning for acquisitions of players who are hitting .275/.338/.347 and are mediocre defensive players at non-premium positions. But this is a classic case of buying low. Last year, Ensberg hit .291/.377/.530, making him one of the best third basemen in the National League. He whacked 25 home runs in just 385 at-bats, as Jimy Williams somehow found ways to platoon him with Geoff Blum, despite the fact that he was an all-star caliber hitter. Ensberg’s 2004 slump (he hasn’t homered all year) has Williams convinced that Mike Lamb is deserving of a good chunk of Ensberg’s playing time, and its no secret that Williams isn’t an Ensberg fan. He’s 28 years old, so he’s in the prime of his career, and the Astros still aren’t willing to make him an everyday player.
His PECOTA projections for the next three years give him EqA’s of .286, .284, and .280. For comparison, Ichiro’s 2004 EqA is .289. So, we could reasonably expect Ensberg to be one of the best hitters on the team, playing a position of need, for what will amount to chump change (he makes $380,000 this year, won’t get a big raise in arbitration, especially with his off year). The Astros have just traded away their closer to acquire Beltran and could use a solid late inning left-handed arm. They’ve also struggled with injury problems to their rotation and could use some depth at starting pitcher.
Dangle Ron Villone and Mike Myers and see if Hunsicker bites. Throw in Justin Leone just to get him another similar player to replace Ensberg (despite the fact that Ensberg is the far superior talent, you can at least make a case that they are the same type of player). If all else fails, throw Eddie Guardado in the mix, and get back an arm like Fernando Nieve as well.
Perhaps I’m getting overly optimistic, but a 2005 line-up core built around Ichiro, Reed, Ensberg, and Olivo isn’t a bad start, and the money saved by having three cheap starters leaves more than enough for a run at Carlos Beltran or Troy Glaus. Ensberg is almost certainly available, and Hunsicker is clearly going for it this year. He’s the power bat the fans have been craving, and they might not get another opportunity to acquire one so cheaply.
Okay, one more thing on this fine, fine trade, which I whole-heartedly endorse:
It adds a lot of credence to the view that Bavasi/etc weren’t really expecting the team to get back into it, but instead used Gammons/everyone like us to spread the view that while Freddy might be available, that they were reluctant to let him go: that the team was doing the exact opposite of the mistakes they made this off-season trading players. We know the order went down some time ago to dismantle: maybe they’re learning from their mistakes.
I can only hope.
Now, the alternate view is that they were sincere about farting around, and this was such a whopper of an offer that it overcame their objections. More on this view later.
Oh, and one other great thing — Garcia (for now, at least) isn’t a Yankee, and I think I speak on behalf of all real Mariner fans when I say that there is little that would have galled me more than to see Freddy starting a World Series game with the Yankees (except, perhaps, if the Mariners had taken those two scrubs that were rumored to be heading over here).
Here’s a link to an article I wrote for Baseball Prospectus last year, profiling Reed, for those interested.
I haven’t been this happy to be an M’s fan in… a year? Maybe more.
I was sitting at the game today when my phone rang. Normally, I don’t answer my phone anyway, and never at games, but it was Jason, and this was more or less our conversation:
JMB: “Dude, they traded Garcia.”
DMZ: “Whaaa?”
JMB: “They got Mig–”
DMZ: “Jeremy Reed! Jeremy Reed!”
JMB: “Yes, they got Jeremy Reed. And Miguel Olivio, and a shortstop– I don’t know who yet. We give up Garcia and Ben Davis…”
DMZ: jaw down, staring out at field, blinking
JMB: “Hello?”
This is the kind of deal we’ve almost never seen the last couple of years: a free agent in their walk year, expensive, traded for several good players. This is the kind of deal I’d expect a sharp, horse-swapping GM like Beane or Shapiro to make… I never would have thought the M’s would pull off a haul like this.
I was at the game, though, in an amazingly good seat. There wasn’t really a crowd reaction to the centerfield video-screen notice. Many more people booed at the end of the game than said anything about the trade at the time. I now present this Triple Play Freddy Garcia Trade Edition of Overheard at the Ballpark ™:
Woman behind me:
“Chicago White Sox? Isn’t that where we traded Guillen?” (DMZ: No, ma’am, that was the Tigers) “Oh, I was thinking he’d be back together with his friend.”
Woman with child:
Woman: “They traded my friend Freddy.”
Child: “Wheeeere?”
Woman: “The White Sox. It was a bad trade, but we’ll see.”
Woman on bus:
“I’m upset. I really liked Freddy.”
I don’t understand that, really. As fans, we’ve come out to the ballpark every game this season and seen an awful, awful team play. They’re old, devoid of power, they play much worse defense than they used to, the lineup’s badly built and managed… if they’d put up an announcement that said “The Mariners announce they have demoted the team and called up the Rainiers” or even “The Mariners announce that they’ve traded their starting nine for Detroit’s starting nine” I’d have shrugged and said “It’s a start.”
Is there really that strong of an emotional attachment to Freddy? If so, why the boos when he struggled for so long?
And considering Freddy was going to leave anyway, and this season was lost, why not trade him?
I wondered, on the bus back home, if maybe the M’s weren’t just blowing smoke about the fans, if they’d done enough surveys and knew their demographic well enough that they’d realized that there would be a significant portion of people upset by any trade of “top” players.
But here’s the other thing. The people who said “that sucks, I don’t know any of these guys” are the same kind of people who bitched about the Randy Johnson trade. I (and, uh, we) get hate mail all the time that says “what the (expletive) do you know about (item) anyway?” But there’s a huge contingent of people who’ll dismiss a trade like this because they don’t know anything. Like if we’d traded Freddy for Nomar and Clemens, or whichever names they recognized, that’d have been fine, but not knowing…
“I see you drive a Chevy Citation. I’ll give you this fine Swedish automobile for it.”
“No, that deal sucks, I don’t know anything about Swedish cars. What’s it called?”
“It’s a Volvo.”
“A vulv–what?”
“It’s twenty times safer, gets better gas mileage, it seats four comfortably, handles better, and can out-accelerate your Citation.”
“No.”
“I can provide you with these handy reviews from leading magazines… government crash test ratings?”
“I like my Citation.”
I want to hook these people up somehow.
“Dear Derek,
I can’t help but notice you once again second-guessed Melvin’s decision to bunt runners over with two outs. Have you considered that he was trying to do the unexpected, in the hopes of future returns? What do you know about managing a baseball game?”
“Dear Reader,
Thank you for your email. Please contact bigmoney0005@hotmail.com, who has given this subject much less thought and has even stronger opinions on the subject.”
Kidding aside, this is good news. It’s not “redeems a disastrous off-season” good news, but it’s far better than anything I’d hoped for, and I’m a happy fan today. I hope now the Mariners will be able to deploy these new guys to take advantage of them and improve the team.
Jeremy Reed… man, that’s cool.
The deal is as follows…
To Chicago: RHP Freddy Garcia, C Ben Davis
To Seattle: C Miguel Olivo, OF Jeremy Reed, SS Michael Morse
Dave will have more to say on this shortly, but from the looks of it, the M’s did very, VERY well.
Freddy Garcia and Ben Davis for Jeremy Reed, Miguel Olivo, and Michael Morse.
Congratulations Bill Bavasi. Seriously, let me say this again. Congratulations Bill Bavasi. This is probably one of the best player-for-prospect hauls any team has gotten since the Bartolo Colon to Montreal trade. Since the White Sox farm system is essentially based in North Carolina (their Double-A team is the only one not within an hour of my house), I’ve seen all these guys extensively, and this is basically the heart of the Sox system.
Reed is a healthy version of Chris Snelling with a few more walks and a few less singles. Prospectus was a bit nuts when they called him the 2nd best prospect in the game this spring, but he’s legit top 20. He’s got line drive power and a very compact swing, makes great contact, and knows the strike zone. His swing won’t let him develop much more home run power, but his offensive game is tailored for the top of the order. In his prime, he should hit .290/.380/.450, which is a quality player. He’s got a great chance to be the next Rusty Greer. Defensively, he’s a corner outfielder. The M’s might dream that he can fill the need in center, but he just doesn’t have the range to be an asset there. He can play right or left well, and center in an emergency, but they should still be searching for a permanent CF.
Miguel Olivo is a league average catcher right now. He has a bit of a long swing and won’t ever win a batting title, but he has above average power and runs well to boot. He’s hitting .270/.316/.496, making him not only our best catcher, but probably our fourth best hitter. He’s only in his second year, meaning he’s making peanuts for the next two, maybe three years. He’s not the catcher of the future-he’s the catcher of the present. At 25 years old, he still could turn into a Jason Varitek type player.
Michael Morse is a decent hitting prospect with line drive power and a nice swing. He’s also abysmal defensively. I watched him probably 30 times last year in Winston-Salem, and he’s the worst defensive SS I’ve ever seen. He doesn’t have the footwork or instincts to play third, either. He should probably end up in left field or at first base, and there were a few nights I thought he should DH. But the swing was always there, and he’s had a breakout offensive season at Double-A. There are attitude problems involved, though, as he was just suspended for 2 weeks for violating a team rule. He’s never been the hardest worker, and motivation can be a problem. He’s definitely not a choir boy, but he can hit.
Seriously, this trade is so much better than what the Royals got for Beltran it isn’t funny. Reed is now our top prospect, Olivo our best catcher, and Morse is about as interesting a bat as you’ll find in the system, even if he has nowhere to play. Making them pay Ben Davis’ salary the rest of the year is icing on the cake.
Seriously, just a fantastic trade for the Mariners. Great deal, Bill. Very well done.
BREAKING NEWS…
Freddy Garcia to the White Sox. Details to follow.
Driving home from work today, I happened to catch Chuck Armstrong on the M’s pre-game show. When asked about the possibility of bringing up Tacoma 1B/DH Bucky Jacobsen, he said something to the effect of “Well, you can only have one first baseman and DH in the game at once. John [Olerud] looks like he’s turning things around; he had three hits last night.”
First off, Chuck, Willie Bloomquist could have three hits tonight, but it still doesn’t make him a good hitter. Second, Olerud can’t hit lefties and Jacobsen is right-handed.
Armstrong gave a few other maddening answers to some softball questions… but damned if I can remember them now, an hour later. Sorry, dear readers.
Memo to anyone working in the Mariners front office: Opportunity is here.
Today, the Pittsburgh Pirates designated Ruben Mateo for assignment. Mateo was, at one time, the Texas Rangers CF of the future, but injuries derailed his development. The Reds traded for him in their push to get every toolsy outfielder in 2001, but cut him loose after last year, and he signed a minor league deal with Pittsburgh over the offseason. Throughout his major league career, he’s amassed 783 at-bats, posting a .257/.311/.396 line, which is basically a replacement level outfielder.
However, this year, he looks to have made some adjustments. Pittsburgh brought him to the show after he hit .316/.391/.711 in 114 at-bats for Nashville. He proceeded to hit .242/.359/.515 in 33 at-bats for Pittsburgh before he was DFA’d today. He’s showing some patience (17 walks in 147 at-bats), a lot of power, and he can play a solid LF/RF and a passable CF. All this for the league minimum folks. It’s not a stretch to say that Ruben Mateo would instantly become our best center fielder (okay, thats Ichiro, but thats apparently not an option) and probably our 3rd or 4th best hitter. He has more value than about half the hitters on the roster, and is exactly the kind of free talent pickup this team should be looking to make. Make the call to Dave Littlefield and toss them a low level relief arm, like, say, Cesar Jimenez, to make sure no other team claims him on waivers before the M’s get a shot at him (due to the arcane league setup, all the teams in the NL get a shot before any teams in the AL).
Ruben Mateo could help this club now and become a nice role player for the future. He’s cheap and even toolsy. He fills a need, and he’s going to come at a bargain rate. Go get Ruben Mateo.