Game 9, Mariners at Dodgers
Taijuan Walker vs. Brett Anderson, 7:10pm
Last night’s game going to sting for a while. Another late lead blown, and a lack of offense after David Huff came out of the game doomed the M’s, and they head into tonight’s game looking to avoid a sweep behind a pitcher who gave up 9 runs in 3+ innings in his first start.
Fangraphs’ odds give the Dodgers a 60% chance of winning, but despite Walker’s rough outing, that may be overstating things a bit. Walker was hit fairly hard by the A’s, and most of the damage came on fastballs. Walker’s command in Oakland was poor-to-nonexistent, so some improvement in that regard might help his results look different. And for whatever reason, Walker’s gone away from his curve a bit, and might need to mix a few more in to give hitters something else to think about. His split and cutter/slider are thrown hard enough that hitters can be expecting a fastball, react and still drive the ball – as Ben Zobrist did in the first inning in Oakland. A few more curves may make it harder for the Dodgers to sit on his fastball.
Brett Anderson, the oft-injured ex-Athletic gets the start for the Dodgers. Anderson spent a season rehabbing and occasionally pitching for Colorado, managing all of 43 1/3 IP in Denver.* With the A’s, Anderson was a ground-ball machine despite a four-seam and slider-heavy pitch mix. As time went on, he threw his sinker more, and that may have helped push his GB rates from the mid 50s up over 60% in very, very limited action in 2013-14. When healthy, he’s displayed great control, and though his velocity’s down from where it was 5 years ago, he’s not yet a soft-tossing lefty. In addition to his slider, he’ll use a change-up and a curve.
Despite his repertoire, Anderson’s run reverse platoon splits over his unfortunately brief MLB career. I wouldn’t want to bet on anything involving Anderson, but it’s odd that it’s persisted in every year except one of his career, and it’s true for slash lines and FIP as well. The reason is that his slider’s been much more effective on opposite handed hitters, which is just not something you see every day. There are a number of pitchers, Madison Bumgarner in particular, whose slider is effective against both, but I’m not sure I can think of too many players who have a breaking ball like this (as opposed to a change/splitter) with reverse splits. Maybe it’s luck, but righties whiff on the pitch more, swing at it more, and put it in play less than do lefties. Anderson’s a very effective pitcher, but he’s not the guy you want to overhaul your line-up to face.
Let’s see here….
1: Weeks, LF
2: Jackson, CF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, RF
5: Seager, 3B
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: Miller, SS
9/SP: Walker
Not bad, I suppose. Ackley would help the defense, but Weeks’ own platoon splits come into play as well.
The Rainiers take on Albuquerque as Roenis Elias takes the hill. Jordan Pries had another rough go yesterday, and the M’s lost in the 9th, 6-5. Carlos Rivero continues to rake, while Chris Taylor went 1-5 with 2 Ks as the DH.
Jackson takes on the Mississippi Braves with Stephen Landazuri getting his second start. The righty went six scoreless IP in his first game, striking out 5.
The performance of the night came from Edwin Diaz, who went six scoreless innings against Modesto, giving up just one hit and striking out 8 in a 1-0 Blaze win. The two teams played today, with Modesto taking it by a score of 3-2, with Ryan Yarbrough getting a no-decision after 6 IP, giving up a run on 2 hits, a walk and 1 K. The 2-3-4 hitters of Tim Lopes, Tyler O’Neill and Austin Wilson all have slugging percentages under .200, so runs have been at a premium in Bakersfield.
* Anderson was traded from Oakland to Colorado for Walker’s adversary back on Friday, Drew Pomeranz.
Game 8, Mariners at Dodgers
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. David Huff, 7:10pm
The M’s managed to lose a game in which they hit four HRs. Even in the recent low-scoring, fewer HR environment, we probably shouldn’t be too surprised. The M’s have hit at least four HRs in a game and lost 31 times now, including two games in which they hit 5.* James Paxton didn’t look too sharp, though the M’s defense wasn’t all that sharp. Today, the M’s try to even up the series behind Hisashi Iwakuma, who’ll try to avoid the slow start that doomed his first start against the Angels.
The Dodgers called up David Huff from Oklahoma City (still getting used to all the new affiliations) to make the start today. Huff’s 2014 will sound a bit familiar – last year, Huff had a poor half-year for an NL West club, but then seemed to reinvent himself after getting picked up the Yankees. Brandon McCarthy got a four-year deal out of his reinvention, but Huff got a minor league deal with a spring training invite. So what *was* he, and what *is* he, after the Yankees got through with him? Huff came up with the Indians as a guy with a so-so fastball, but a solid change and great control. As I mentioned back in March, Huff’s change wasn’t good enough to reliably get major league righties out, but without a good breaking ball, he was equally lost against lefties. Getting hit hard chased him out of the strikezone, so his sparkling walk rates were gone too.
In his career, Huff’s allowed lefties to hit .298/.366/.474 against him, while righties have hit .275/.329/.462. Some of that is BABIP related, but even looking at fielding-independent stats, he has essentially even splits. As a starter with Cleveland, he had a FB around 90mph, his change, a slider and the occasional curve. Back then, he was a fly-ball pitcher, whose fastball simply wasn’t good enough to rely on. He continued to bounce between MLB and AAA, but he could never get a handle on his HR rate. He started off last year with San Francisco, and produced career-best ground ball rates, but it didn’t help him get outs. The Yankees picked him up on waivers, and he performed quite well out of the Yankees bullpen. Fangraphs readers would probably note that his FIP was the same for both teams, and a closer look at his pitch fx data shows that he didn’t really make any big changes. Sure, he’s no longer a four-seam/change-up guy – he’s now a four-seam/cutter pitcher, but he picked up the cutter a few years ago, and he used it extensively with the Giants. Its downward break was the big reason for his GB% improvement. Nothing much changed when he got to the Bronx, except he had much better results on balls in play. More interestingly, the cutter seems to have helped him get a handle on lefties.
Thus, Huff’s not the same guy who’s faced the M’s three times and yielded an ERA over 10. That’s not to say he’s great, however. This is a game the M’s should win.
1: Weeks, LF
2: Jackson, CF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, RF
5: Seager, 3B
6: Zunino, C
7: Miller, SS
8: Bloomquist, 1B
9/SP: Iwakuma
Ah, the M’s righty-heavy line-up.
Dave’s got a good article on our old friend Carter Capps’ reworked…uh..delivery. In case you missed it, Capps was recalled last night, and his new delivery stretches the bounds of some remarkably vague rules on what constitutes a “legal pitch.” Capps now takes Jordan Walden’s old “hop” delivery and magnifies it; he’s essentially leaping forward a few feet, and then resuming his delivery. He’s received some guidance from MLB, so it looks like this is legal. *This* is why we need the statcast data, complete with pitcher extention. The perceived velocity of Capps’ fastball has to be off the charts.
The Rainiers lost to Albuquerque last night 4-3 as the bullpen couldn’t hold a 2-1 lead. Mike Montgomery looked pretty good for Tacoma, showing reasonable control and generating plenty of GB outs. Today, Jordan Pries will try to erase memories of his opening day start. Chris Taylor played some SS yesterday, but will stick to DH’ing today.
AA Jackson has the day off.
Bakersfield’s opening day starter Edwin Diaz makes his second start of the year against Modesto. The Nuts dominated yesterday’s game, winning 11-3.
Clinton last 6-2 yesterday, with Lukas Schiraldi taking the loss. Today, Jefferson Medina makes his first start against Quad Cities again.
* The M’s hit 5 HRs in a 16-10 loss to Toronto in May of 1999. The M’s hit 3 off David Wells, and then 2 off of reliever Tom Davey, who they would acquire a few months later in exchange for David Segui. The M’s also hit 5 HRs in a 14-8 loss to Boston back in 1988. The M’s got to Oil Can Boyd for 3 HRs, but they were already behind 12-2 heading into the 5th, so Boyd’s approach (throw strikes) was understandable. It’s still impressive to see a 5HR game from any team in 1988 – the AL SLG% that year was .391, essentially the same as 2014’s mark of .390. In 1999, the M’s led the league with 244 HRs, and the league as a whole was slugging .439. In 1988, they managed 148 total dingers – led by Steve Balboni’s 21 in 97 games – good for 4th in the league. That was still more than they hit in 2014. Only 136 last year? Steve Balboni is unimpressed. 
Game 7, Mariners at Dodgers
James Paxton vs. Brandon McCarthy, 7:10pm
I’m not sure that was a fun series, but I’ll certainly take an intra-divisional series win on the road. Sure, the Fernando Rodney Experience remains terrifying at times, but there’s a reason fairground rides simulate danger and not, I don’t know, reclining. Seth Smith’s nether-regions have prevented the M’s from deploying their OF in a mathematically perfect way, but McClendon’s made substitutions in critical at-bats, and he was rewarded yesterday with Rickie Weeks huge pinch-hit 3R HR. That said, Smith’s injury has led to Nelson Cruz playing four out of the six games in the OF, and the A’s seemed to take advantage of the sub-optimal defense. In any event, the M’s are back at .500 as they head to Los Angeles tonight to take on the Dodgers.
If you think the M’s had high expectations for 2015, think about the Dodgers. With their record-setting payroll, a star-studded rotation and a willingness to lay out tens of millions to players who now play for different teams, the Dodgers have been building front runners for a while, and after coming up short last year, they need to start turning revenue advantages into championships. The Dodgers added to their rotation in December by bringing in RHP Brandon McCarthy, the ex-Athletic and D-Back who rejuvenated his career after a July trade to the Yankees last season. With Arizona, McCarthy’s xFIP remained stellar, but his ERA soared thanks to a spate of HRs. How’d the guy who famously re-worked his entire game to *avoid* HRs return to giving them up in bunches? His home park may have played a role, but after the trade, McCarthy himself fingered the advice he got from Arizona: shelve the cutter and stick with the sinker. In this telling, the D-Backs changed McCarthy’s game plan either because they thought it might prevent flare-ups of the shoulder injuries that have plagued McCarthy, or because they preferred his sinker. After the trade, his new club told him to bring back the cutter, a pitch that he used more than any other in his successful 2-year run with Oakland.
It all sounds so convincing, and the dates line up, but there’s more to it than a club taking away a pitcher’s best tool. The problem with McCarthy’s cutter in Arizona wasn’t that he wasn’t allowed to throw it, the problem was that the pitch was absolutely terrible. In Oakland, McCarthy threw his cutter around 40% of the time to righties and lefties alike, and the pitch was successful against both. Agains righties, he gave up a total of 4 HRs in two years on the cutter, leading to a SLG%-allowed of just .369. As you might expect, McCarthy was very tough on righties in those years, holding RHBs to .279 and .278 wOBAs in 2011 and 2012, respectively. In 2013, in his first year with Arizona, McCarthy’s cutter usage was still over 30% to righties and lefties, but his results started to falter. Righties hit over .300 on the pitch, after managing a .238 average in Oakland. He gave up three HRs to RHBs in 2013 alone, and while you can’t put all of the blame for McCarthy’s results on the cutter, it certainly didn’t help. Suddenly, *righties* were McCarthy’s big problem – they put up a .353 wOBA in 2013, and McCarthy’s K% against them tumbled to 10%. His sinker was getting far more grounders than it ever did in Oakland, but McCarthy was looking a lot more like Aaron Cook or late-career Derek Lowe than he did Roy Halladay, the guy he modeled his game on back in 2010.
It’s with that context that Arizona’s advice to McCarthy looks a bit more understandable. In the first half of 2014, McCarthy threw almost no cutters to RHBs. He’d use it occasionally to lefties, but he’d become a sinker/curve pitcher, primarily. I say *almost* no cutters, because he did throw a handful, and the results were comically bad. McCarthy threw a total of 34 cutters to righties. Only ten were put into play, and four went for extra bases, including three HRs. It’s the ultimate in small-samples driving absurd numbers, but I have to point out that righties were slugging 1.231 on cutters before the trade. Without the cutter, he became more reliant on his sinker. Paired with his sudden jump in velocity, McCarthy was now generating elite GB rates, but righties still punished mistakes once they knew they didn’t have to worry about the cutter.
In New York, the Yankees allowed McCarthy to throw the cutter to anyone again, but the bigger change was taking McCarthy’s old four-seamer off the shelf. In that ESPN profile, a lot of blame was heaped on that arrow-straight, rising FB that led to sky-high fly ball rates and tons of HRs allowed, but even in the tight confines of new Yankee stadium, New York got McCarthy to turn back to a pitch he hadn’t used much at all since 2009-10. The results were pretty remarkable. Not only did his velocity continue climbing, but it seemed that having the four-seamer disguised his two-seamer a bit. As you’d expect, his GB rates dropped a bit, but that was balanced out by an increase in his K rate and a drop in his already microscopic walk rate. What the new approach couldn’t do, though, was salvage his cutter’s effectiveness. With New York, righties slugged a mere .795 on his cutter. Despite that, McCarthy’s overall results were stellar just as he hit free agency. Though he expected the Yankees to snap him up, the Dodgers stepped in with a four-year offer – not bad for a guy with a congenital shoulder defect.
In his first start with the Dodgers, McCarthy faced San Diego. His four-seamer now touches 95 with some regularity, and by mixing four pitches, McCarthy racked up 9 strikeouts in just 5 IP. He also gave up two HRs, including one on a cutter to RHB Will Middlebrooks. McCarthy’s been incredible to follow for many reasons – he mixes humor with actual insights about his approach and how it’s changed on twitter. He seems so open to data, and he’s the best example (only example?) of a pitcher utilizing sabermetrics to make himself better. Like many hurlers, looking at his year by year (or month by month) numbers shows a willingness to adapt and change. He’s now a wealthier man because of this willingness, but I’m kind of curious to see what becomes of his cutter. He may not need it, but if righties start to hit him hard again, he’ll need to make further changes.
James Paxton doesn’t yet have to worry about same-handed batters. No one lets lefties face him, and given the results of the few lefties who’ve tried, that seems like a good approach. Curves in general don’t have big platoon-splits (as we see with McCarthy), and Paxton’s hook is an equal-opportunity weapon. The samples are too small to mean much, but lefties have actually fared a bit better against his fastball than righties, though this may just be an artifact of the *kind* of lefties that remain in line-ups when Paxton’s on the hill – guys like Adrian Gonzalez tonight.
Line-up:
1: Ackley, CF (!)
2: Smith, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, LF
5: Seager, 3B
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: Miller, SS
9/SP: Paxton
The NL, man. Ackley in CF for the first time since 2013.
One roster move today as Dominic Leone was recalled from Tacoma. Tom Wilhelmsen’s been placed on the 15-day DL.
The Rainiers fell to El Paso yesterday, evening their record at 2-2. They head to Albuquerque tonight to take on the Isotopes, who ground out a clean, PCL-style 16-10 win against Reno yesterday. Mike Kickham didn’t make it to 5 IP yesterday for Tacoma, but the offense kept things close thanks to Patrick Kivlehan’s 2nd HR. Chris Taylor DH’d and went 0-5. Today’s game marks the org debut for Mike Montgomery, the return in the Erasmo Ramirez deal. It’s kind of a tough place to play for a guy with HR problems, but I think Jaime Navarro and the Rainiers staff just want to see what they have in the lefty. Game time’s 6:05, and the Isotopes send out MLB vet Jair Jurrjens for his first start of 2015. James Jones hurt his shoulder after running into the El Paso wall yesterday, but it sounds like he’ll be ready to go today.
AA Jackson played an early game today, but rain washed it away in the 7th, with the score still tied at 0. DJ Peterson knocked a single for his first hit of 2015 (he started the year 0-17), but the story was Misael Siverio’s 5 scoreless innings with 5 Ks. The game won’t be made up.
Bakersfield got into the win column yesterday, beating Rancho Cucamonga 7-2 behind C Tyler Marlette’s two HRs. Burt Reynolds, the 26-year old single-A outfielder more famous for being Robbie Cano’s cousin, hit a HR of his own as well. Tonight, lefty Jake Zokan gets the start against Modesto (now a Rockies affiliate).
Clinton lost to Quad City yesterday 7-2, as Alex Jackson went 0-3 and Patrick Peterson had a shaky 5th inning to blow the game open. Today, Lukas Schiraldi (yes, Calvin Schiraldi’s son) takes the hill for the LumberKings.
In the minor league transactions compiled by Baseball America, you’ll find ex-R’s and M’s Bryan LaHair was released by Boston and Mike Carp by Washington, while Matt Tuiasosopo was picked up by the White Sox org. Maikel Cleto, the man swapped for Brendan Ryan in a trade that felt like it’d mean a lot more than it did, was outrighted by the White Sox.
Podcast: The Mariners are in First Place!
Back to just one podcast this weekend, but it is a Mariners-leading-AL-West sort of podcast! Woooo
Podcast with Jeff (@based_ball) and Matthew (@msea1): Direct link! || iTunes link! || RSS/XML link!
Thanks again to those that helped support the show and/or StatCorner in general last week, and in the past, and hopefully in the future. It’s truly appreciated. And thank you to our sponsor for this episode, TodayIFoundOut!
Game 6, Mariners at Athletics
King Felix vs. Jesse Hahn, 1:05pm
Much different feeling today, after the M’s – behind their #5 guy – take down the A’s and their ace, Sonny Gray. Sure, there are still plenty of things to be worried about. The bullpen coughed up a late lead, the line-up looked flummoxed most of the day against Gray, and Happ was left in too long in the 7th. But at least there are some pretty big positives outweighing them – Nelson Cruz looked solid, and put together some decent at-bats even before his big 3R homer turned the game around. Brad Miller made a great play to save the team in the 10th, and then hit a game-winning double off of a tough lefty in the 11th. Mike Zunino *walked*. JA Happ was effective throughout, averaging 93 on his four-seamer. Still a few too many sinkers for my liking, but he used the four-seamer most of the time, and it was an effective outing overall.
Today, Felix gets his second start of the year, taking on the A’s and RHP Jesse Hahn. Hahn came over from San Diego in one of AJ Preller’s innumerable trades. The one-time Rays prospect had a great debut with San Diego, throwing 73 IP with a very good K rate, and a park-aided but still impressive HR rate thanks in part to a 50% GB rate. Hahn throws a four- and two-seam fastball at 93-94, with a curve as his primary breaking ball. He’s also got a change-up and a very rare slider. His platoon splits were on the low end of normal, with lefties hitting for more power and fewer strikeouts, but taking fewer walks. That’s going to be something to watch as Hahn transitions to the AL; last year, he faced exactly the same number of righties and lefties on the year. In his first AL West start five days ago, 17 of the 26 batters he faced were lefties.
Hahn typically threw a four-seamer to righties, and used his sinker against lefties, with everyone getting around 25% curve balls. It’ll be interesting to see if that changes in Oakland, following the noticeable shifts they made in the pitch mix for guys like Drew Pomeranz and Jesse Chavez. Against Texas, Hahn threw more four-seamers, including against lefties. It was one start, so it’s tough to know if that was a clear change of approach, something in the scouting report or both.
Today’s line-up:
1: Jackson, CF
2: Smith, DH
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, RF
5: Seager, 3B
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Ackley, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Miller, SS
SP: Felix.
The Rainiers beat El Paso 10-2 last night behind HRs from Carlos Rivero and Franklin Gutierrez, but perhaps the story of the night was the return of SS Chris Taylor. Taylor’s rehabbing from that broken wrist he suffered on a HBP in the spring, and went 1-3 with a double before giving way to Leury Bonilla. The Rainiers knocked around San Diego prospect Robbie Erlin, the one-time Rangers prospect who moved to San Diego in exchange for reliever Mike Adams a few years back. Erlin suffered an elbow injury last year, but avoided TJ surgery. He’s bounced up and down between AAA and the Pads, but will need to show he can stay healthy this season. LHP Sam Gaviglio was solid in his M’s org debut, throwing five scoreless innings on 5H and 2BBs; he struck out 3 Chihuahuas. Mike Kickham starts today for Tacoma in El Paso – gametime’s 12:05. The lefty’s game looks a bit like his one-time teammate Madison Bumgarner, in that Kickham uses a fastball around 90-91, and a blizzard of sliders that he’ll throw to lefties and righties alike. While platoon splits haven’t really been an issue for him in the minors, righties have torched him in his short big league stints in 2013 and 2014 – Kickham’s RA/9 is well over 11.
South African control artist Dylan Unsworth makes his 2015 debut today for Jackson against Kendry Flores and the Jacksonville Suns. Flores moved from the Giants to the Marlins org in the Casey McGehee deal this off-season. He was a 10-20th ranked prospect in the Giants org after following a very good 2013 with an up, down and injury plagued 2014. Tyler Pike was so-so in his debut, walking and striking out 3 over 4 2/3 IP. He took the loss after the Generals managed only 1 R against Jacksonville. DJ Peterson has started slowly, going 0-11 with 1 BB thus far.
Caros Misell starts for Bakersfield against Rancho Cucamonga. The 22 year old could use a few good games to open 2014 following a poor year at Clinton in 2014. The Blaze have opened 0-3, with the line-up still struggling in the early going. Dan Altavilla struck out 8 in 5 2/3 yesterday, but took the loss. The Blaze have 10 hits and just 4 runs in total over their first 3 games; the Rainiers have scored 31 runs on 44 hits in three games.
Finally, NC State product Pat Peterson makes his MWL debut today for Clinton. The righty threw 11 solid starts for Pulaski last year, striking out 54 in 49+ innings. The LumberKings swept their DH yesterday, winning 5-4 and 2-1. Alex Jackson went 1-4 with a 2B in the first game, while the pitching of Osmel Morales and Jarrett Brown, a 22nd rounder out of Georgia last year, was the story in the nightcap.
Game 5, Mariners at Athletics
JA Happ vs. Sonny Gray, 1:05pm
Today’s game can’t be worse. So we’ve got that going for us.
JA Happ takes the hill after a shaky spring, but again, if he can embrace fly balls, he’ll find the AL West can be a pretty welcoming place. As I mentioned back in the early spring, it might be a good idea to shelve to the two-seamer he uses occasionally and simplify a bit to a four-seamer, curve and cutter. He’s got a change, but it hasn’t been a great pitch thus far. Might be nice as an occasional pitch to show off, but it’s probably not great as his primary weapon against right-handers.
The A’s send their ace Sonny Gray out for his second start of 2015. In the first, he carried a no-hitter into the 8th against a punchless Rangers team. He’s got an arrow-straight, almost cutter-style four-seam fastball, a sinker that he uses against right-handers, a big curve ball at around 82mph, and an occasional slider and change. With his distinctive four-seamer movement and curveball, his minimal platoon splits shouldn’t be a big surprise. Gray exploded onto the scene with 10 great starts down the stretch in 2013, with a big K rate and low HR rate leading to a FIP of 2.70. Last year, he wasn’t able to sustain that, as his K rate that fell to league average, and a K:BB ratio a touch below that. As a result, his FIP wasn’t as gaudy as it had been, but his ERA was still pretty good. In essence, he took a page from James Paxton’s playbook, managing contact and running absurdly high GB rates for a four-seam hurler to minimize HRs and BABIP. The HR rate thing isn’t just a product of O.co coliseum – in fact, he was much better on the road, and gave up twice as many HRs at home as he did on the road. The biggest worry going forward for Gray was that he seemed to tire down the stretch; his small size resulted in durability concerns that sent him tumbling down the draft board in 2011, from a guy once seen as a top 5 pick down to #18. He’s still a tough, tough match-up for the M’s, but some patience might be rewarded today – run up the pitch count, foul some pitches off, and wait for a grooved FB – despite the results, he threw quite a few mistake pitches in his first game.
Line-up:
1: Jackson, CF
2: Smith, DH
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, RF
5: Seager, 3B
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Ackley, LF
8: Miller, SS
9: Sucre, C
SP: Happ
On paper, this looks as unfavorable, as unwatchable, as yesterday’s game was anticipated and favorable. Last night’s game turned out to be a completely digusting mess, so hey, games rarely unfold as they’re ‘supposed’ to. At least the M’s get Seth Smith back, but his groin injury seems like it’s still a factor, as he’ll be DHing today.
Yesterday in the minors, the Rainiers countered the Chihuahuas opening day blow out by scoring 17 runs against the hapless lapdogs, knocking Aaron Northcraft out in the 2nd, and then pouring it on against ex-Rainier Steve Kohlscheen after that. Patrick Kivlehan hit his first AAA HR, but it came against the El Paso 2nd baseman, not an actual pitcher. Franklin Gutierrez continued his hot start with 2 2Bs, and Stefen Romero hit 2 2Bs as well on his way to a 4-6 night. Carlos Rivero was 4-5 with a walk, and hit a HR on opening day. Today marks the org debut for pitcher Sam Gaviglio, who the M’s acquired from St. Louis in exchange for IF Ty Kelly. Gaviglio’s from Ashland, and went to OSU, and utilizes a sinking four-seamer around 88-90 to generate ground balls. He’s also got a slider and a firm change around 84.
Tyler Pike makes his season debut for the Jackson Generals in Jacksonville. One of the minor league stars of 2013, Pike battled serious control problems throughout 2014, and his overall numbers last year were awful as a result. Pike hasn’t shown a lot of bat-missing ability, so dramatically dropping his walk rate is going to be imperative going forward. High Desert undoubtedly impacted him last year, though he fared even worse after a late-season promotion to AA. Still, he’s just 21 and still should have some of the pitchability that scouts raved about in 2013.
Dan Altavilla takes the hill for Bakersfield today. The righty was a 5th round pick out of tiny Mercyhurst college, and spent 2014 in the Everett rotation. The Bakersfield offense hasn’t found their footing yet, as they’ve scored just 3 runs in two games. Ryan Yarbrough was solid last night, giving up 2R in 4IP with 4Ks, but the offense scored just one run, and the Blaze fell to 0-2. The middle of the order, from Timmy Lopes to Tyler O’Neill to Austin Wilson hasn’t clicked yet, but they should soon. Bakersfield’s home park isn’t *quite* as hitter-friendly as High Desert’s, but it’s surprisingly close thanks to its extra cozy dimensions: The CF wall in Bakersfield is an absurd 354 feet from home plate.
Clinton dropped their opener too, despite a solid performance from Daniel Missaki, who went 6IP, giving up 2R on 5H and striking out 5. He left with a 3-2 lead, but the bullpen coughed it up. Alex Jackson was 1-4 with a 2B, and Joe DeCarlo hit a HR for the LumberKings. Clinton’s got a double-header scheduled today, with Tyler Herb – a 29th-rounder last year with a solid K rate across three levels – and intriguing Venezuelan Osmel Morales starting.
Meanwhile, In The AL West
Bummed about the Mariners losing two in a row to the Angels, after a promising opening day? That’s fine! We all are. On the other hand, at least the Mariners aren’t currently doing their damnedest to throw one of their most expensive players under the bus. Hit it, Arte Moreno.
Moreno, asked if he can say Hamilton will play another game with #Angels: “I will not say that.”
— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) April 11, 2015
Moreno says Angels have separate language in Hamilton’s contract vs relapse and they may try to enforce it.
— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) April 11, 2015
Kind of scummy, in that the Angels are clearly just trying to rid themselves of a problem contract, without showing any compassion for the player. They knew what they were signing, and they went ahead with it — Moreno and Josh Hamilton shook hands in the introductory press conference. I’ll say this, though: specifically because Hamilton had a known history, it would make sense for the Angels to try to include some protective language, if that’s even allowed. And then, you know, it’s their right to try to enforce it, or anything else, since contracts are contracts. Anything mutually agreed to becomes enforceable at any point. It’s just, sayyyyyy, what’s that?
Arte Moreno: Hamilton contract contains no special language protecting #Angels from relapse, aside from usual MLB drug policy language.
— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) December 15, 2012
Oh, I get it, Moreno. You’re a liar! You know, like an asshole! Doesn’t mean he was lying today — could mean he was lying a few years ago. But, it doesn’t get much more black and white than this. Arte Moreno directly contradicted himself, and there’s one thing that’s changed over time — Josh Hamilton’s circumstances. At one point, he was an All-Star outfielder. At another point, he’s a massive disappointment fresh off a relapse. I wonder what might be causing Arte Moreno to treat him differently?
To be truthful, every team in baseball would probably act like this. I mean, not like this, but every team would have interest in voiding a bad contract, if at all possible. The big difference: other teams wouldn’t be doing this in the public arena. The Angels are making themselves look like total pricks, and though that does nothing to improve the Mariners’ odds of winning the 2015 World Series, it’s a kind of schadenfreude. We’re used to our organization being the one that looks stupid and tactless. Now we’re not even the second-worst offender in our own division. How does Arte Moreno sleep at night? On a comfortable bed in a large house, with impossible amounts of money to his name. But, also, he sucks.
Oh, and, before I go, Derek Holland will be out two months with a shoulder injury. On the plus side for the Rangers, Ryan Rua and Shin-Soo Choo were also removed from a game with injuries. Their injuries appear more minor. That is literally the plus side for the Rangers right now. They have injuries that could’ve been worse.
Game 4, Mariners at Athletics
Taijuan Walker vs. Drew Pomeranz, 7:05pm
After a disappointing opening series, the M’s head to Oakland to face a team that’s probably just as disappointed in THEIR opener. The A’s split a four-game series with the Rangers, and while Texas’ line-up includes big names like Adrian Beltre, Shin-Soo Choo and Prince Fielder, they are a *bad* ballclub. A team with a DH whose OBP over the last 2 years and 700 PAs is under .300, a team with question marks in the rotation, and punctuation marks that don’t appear to be english in the bullpen. A team that was forecasted to compete for last place *before* Yu Darvish went down with TJ surgery just took 2 of 4 in Oakland, including yesterday’s 4-HR 10-1 drubbing. My point isn’t that Oakland is suddenly, shockingly bad, just as the M’s aren’t bad because they lost 2 of 3 at home. It’s early, and weird things happen. We should just be happy they happen to other teams/fanbases as well.
Today’s game is a big one, as this is the first real test of Taijuan Walker 2.0. The re-worked mechanics, the pitch adjustments, the confidence he must’ve gained after a spring in which no one could touch him – it’s all put to the test tonight in a pitcher-friendly park. Walker’s a pretty important piece to the M’s in that he can stabilize the rotation a bit, and let depth like Roenis Elias fill other spots as needed, and because his projections were low enough that even a good year from Walker can help pick up the other players who will underperform. As we’ve seen, Walker pitches from the stretch exclusively, and features a live fastball at around 96, a slow curve in the low 70s, and a good split-change around 90. His in-between slider/cutter (slutter?) also comes in at 90, and despite the talk about a change, it looks pretty similar to the pitch he featured in his first call-up back in 2013.
While it’s always tough to rely too much on spring pitch fx numbers thanks to Peoria’s odd calibration, it’s a good sign that despite using the stretch, Walker’s velocity was the same or *higher* than it was in the spring of 2013, when he still used a wind-up. It was higher in the spring than it was in his big league debut in Houston, and higher than his first September start last year. I’m tempted to say that his velocity’s improved the more time passes after his injury, but a lot of it must be conditioning and mechanics. It’ll be something to watch tonight in what I presume will be a chilly April night in Oakland. The A’s were a good team against righties last year with big lefty bats like Brandon Moss and Josh Reddick, but Moss is in Cleveland and Reddick’s injured at the moment. Ben Zobrist is a switch hitter with very even splits, but other than that, Walker will only need to really be careful with Stephen Vogt. The A’s early struggles against righties don’t mean much, but with Reddick out and Ike Davis still playing like, well, Ike Davis, this isn’t a bad match-up for Walker.
Drew Pomeranz is a lefty who, like pretty much every other member of the club, remade himself after joining the A’s. He’d been a top draft pick of the Indians, moving to Colorado in the big Ubaldo Jimenez deal, but as a rising FB/curve ball hurler, he ran into problems in Coors field. He never really developed a change-up, and thus had trouble with right-handed hitters, and because of *that* faced line-ups stacked with right-handed hitters. Upon joining the A’s, he increased the use of his sinker dramatically. It was an afterthought in Colorado, but it’s an important part of his arsenal to righties now. That’s not to say he’s shelved the four-seamer – he’ll still throw it to righties, particularly after they’ve seen the two-seamer. The rising four-seamer probably also helps disguise his curve a bit. Whatever the reason, Pomeranz was suddenly very effective against righties last year, albeit in less than 70 IP as a swingman. The A’s are betting he can keep that up, and the M’s righty line-up will be a decent first test.
Last season, fully 1/4 of Pomeranz’s 20 appearances came against Seattle, and he had 16% of his total IP against the M’s. The M’s couldn’t figure him out, as he gave up 1 run in 11 IP against them, and walked nobody, despite occasional control problems against everyone else. The M’s have obviously re-tooled their line-up, and he’ll be facing Nelson Cruz and Rickie Weeks instead of Stefen Romero, John Buck and Cole Gillespie. That said, Nelson Cruz has fared poorly against curves in his career – he should look to get Pomeranz early, when he uses his sinker. In his career, Cruz is slugging .693 off the nearly 800 lefty sinkers he’s seen.
The line-up:
1: Weeks, LF
2: Jackson, CF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Ruggiano, RF
7: Morrison, 1B
8: Zunino, C
9: Bloomquist, SS
SP: Walker
The Rainiers dropped their opener in El Paso by a score of 11-4. Jordan Pries wasn’t sharp, and the relievers weren’t a whole lot better. Carlos Rivero opened the Rainiers account with a HR, but there’s not much more to say about the game. Abe Almonte went 5-5 for the home team, but Mike Curto kept things in perspective. Roenis Elias starts tonight against ex-Braves prospect Aaron Northcraft – game’s at 6:05, tune in to Curto or watch it on MiLB.tv.
Jackson shut-out Jacksonville 2-0 behind the pitching of Steven Landazuri and James Gilheeney. The game was scoreless into the 9th, but the Generals got two runs on RBIs by Gabby Guerrero and Jabari Henry. Today, Scott DeCecco starts against Jake Esch, which just sounds like a really affected way of saying jock itch.
The best prospect performance of the day belonged to Bakersfield RHP Edwin Diaz, who threw 5 scoreless innings with 8Ks against the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes. The Blaze led 2-0 when Diaz left following a very minor league play – with a man on, Tyler Marlette singled, but the ball got past the OF, and after a relay throw went awry, Marlette had come all the way around to score. The Blaze bullpen couldn’t hold the lead, but given the way the lead was acquired, it’s tough to be too upset about it. Tonight, last year’s pop-up prospect Ryan Yarbrough starts against fringe Dodger prospect Zach Bird. Bird’s been very young for his leagues, and has prototypical size and athleticsm that he pairs with a FB that can touch 94-95. The potential there, but the results haven’t been as of yet, which is kind of a scary thing to think about as he makes his first foray into the California League.
Clinton was rained out yesterday, because of course they were. I lost count of their rain-outs last year, and it’s just really tough to see ANY minor league club lose two straight opening nights – it’s such an important night for revenue that teams are loathe to call a game, even in moderately heavy rain. Ah well, they’ll try and play tonight – they haven’t scheduled a double-header the way some of the other MWL clubs have. If it goes, Brazilian pitcher Daniel Missaki will take the hill against Brett Graves of the A’s org.
Rainiers Opening Day/PCL Preview
Now that JY has helpfully gone over the entire roster, as well as those of the other full season affiliates, let’s focus on Tacoma. The Rainiers begin their season in El Paso, taking on the mighty Chihuahuas, the San Diego club that’s starting its second season. The pitching match-up pits Seattle’s 2014 co-minor league pitcher of the year in Jordan Pries against aging two-way threat Jason Lane, who started a game against the M’s in spring training this year. As I mentioned in that game preview, Lane, now 38, spent years in pro ball as an OF, peaking in 2005, when he was a starting corner OF for the Houston Astros, hitting 26 HRs. He’s been kicking around the PCL for years now, and got called in to pitch in blowout games about once or twice a year. In 2013, the Pads decided to have him concentrate on pitching, and he ended up making 24 starts for El Paso last year (as an NL affiliate, Lane got a handful of at bats, too – and he put up an OPS over 1.000 in 69 at bats, including 3 HRs. Even at 38, I still dream of him getting at least one year as a Brooks Kieshnick-style reliever/pinch-hitter).* He even got a call-up to San Diego, throwing 10 pretty good innings, giving up only 1 run. Lane’s “fastball” averages 86-87, and while he doesn’t have the command to keep it down or on the black, he has remarkable good control for a guy who converted to pitching in his mid-30s. His best pitch is a change-up that runs 79-80, and has some armside run. Lane throws it to righties and lefties alike, and seems to be able to keep it away from RHBs.
Jordan Pries opened a lot of eyes in camp, including the pair that matter – those of Lloyd McClendon. The Rainiers rotation also includes Roenis Elias, but Pries may get a shot later in the year in case of injuries or when rosters expand. Pries relies on a sinker at 90-92, a slider and a change. His stuff looks fairly pedestrian from the stands, which is why he fell to the 30th round out of Stanford and hasn’t appeared on M’s prospect lists – it doesn’t help that he’s a bit undersized, either. But the righty took advantage of an opportunity and put together a solid PCL season in 2014, and followed it up with an even better spring. Some improvements this year could have him as a 5th-starter option down the road, particularly if he hones the sinker to be a true ground-ball weapon. The movement on the pitch looks good, but he’s never actually got many ground balls compared to his league. In a league like the PCL, grounders would be nice.
Tonight’s Rainiers line-up looks like this, and game time is 6:05pm. It’s on MiLB.tv, and 850am radio in the south sound.
1: Marte, SS
2: Jones, CF
3: Romero, RF
4: Montero, 1B
5: Gutierrez, LF
6: Hicks, C
7: Blash, DH
8: Rivero, 3B
9: O’Malley, 2B
SP: Pries (RHP)
Go Rainiers!
If you’d like a run-down on the other PCL clubs, there are many words on the subject after the jump.
Read more
2015 Tacoma Rainiers Preview
An evening full of typing and being sort of bummed out by a failed Mariners rally later, and I’m here with a Tacoma Rainiers preview. I feel like at this level, there’s a tendency to get more philosophical because we’re not so much trying to determine what could happen for guys as evaluating what has happened. Triple-A can be a land of players that have been around a while, for whom the results have already spoken, but I found myself unusually eager to type my way through it this time even if it’s been a slog in years past.
Three-fifths of the rotation is new to us and features some former top prospects within their respective systems and whatever Elias is outside of a ten-game winner for the ‘Ners last season. The bullpen has various names of recent and more distant familiarity and a guy who, despite being added to the 40-man, still seems to be ignored in a lot of outlets. Catching will be split between two guys with solid all-around profiles. The infield has Montero, Marte, and a supporting cast that can make a case for fringe MLB roles (I pray we give Bonilla the Jaime Bubela treatment when he finally does retire), and then the outfield has a unicorn, a broken unicorn, some role players we’re still trying to figure out, and the bizarre and talented Jabari Blash, who isn’t a unicorn but is probably some other breed of cryptid.