The Mariners Watched A Few Cubans
The Mariners had a workout for multiple Cuban players today in the Dominican Republic, including second basemen Andy Ibanez and Hector Olivera. In attendance at that workout were Mariners president Kevin Mather, general manager Jack Zduriencik and international director Tim Kissner.
But baseball sources downplayed the presence of Mather and Zduriencik at the workouts. They were on hand for them because there were organizational meetings going on at the facility that same week. Both Zduriencik and Mather were down there for those meetings not specifically to see those two players.
That says almost enough, right there. Zduriencik and Mather watched the workout because it literally would’ve been difficult for them not to. So, this isn’t any kind of indication that the Mariners are totally serious about making an international play, but the fact of the matter is that there *was* a workout, and the Mariners *did* pay attention, and it *is* the beginning of February and the only alternative to thinking about this story is thinking about the Super Bowl and relative to that isn’t this story just the most interesting and compelling story? Let’s talk about this story. Let’s only talk about this story, for at least the next couple of weeks. Let’s talk about this story when we wake up, and let’s talk about this story until we fall asleep. Let’s talk ourselves asleep, with this story.
Of Olivera and Ibanez, Olivera is the bigger name. He’s the guy who’s said to be big-league ready, or just about. Ibanez is more of a prospect. Olivera is a prospect, too, but Ibanez is the kind of prospect who would immediately fit into the low- to mid-minors. The curious thing is that Olivera profiles as a second or third baseman, and Ibanez, too, profiles as a second baseman. The Mariners have one of those, and they have a third baseman, too, and while it’s more possible than you might realize that something disastrous could happen at literally any moment, changing things forever, there’s planning for downside and there’s planning for complete and utter catastrophe. You don’t plan for catastrophes that leave you hopelessly shattered. You just let those catastrophes ruin you.
Now, about this workout: from the looks of things, Olivera and Ibanez were present, but they were not the only players present. Those other players, presumably, have their own talents, even if they don’t quite match up to the higher-profile individuals. It’s possible the Mariners could sign one or two Cubans from the workout, and it’s possible none of the signed players would be Hector Olivera or Andy Ibanez. The hell should I know? If I knew what the Mariners were going to do, I’d tell that to the Mariners, and they’d, I don’t know, do something. Maybe they’d try to do something other than what I predicted, but, I would’ve predicted that already, and — it’s complicated. I don’t really want to get into determinism here.
It’s only natural to let your imaginations run wild. That’s the whole appeal of these rumors and links. And I’m not going to try to stop you from getting ahead of yourself; do what you want, it’s a Friday afternoon. It’s baseball. It doesn’t matter. Here’s what we know: the Mariners are aware of a couple talented future Cuban imports, and they’ve put them through a workout. If Olivera and Ibanez were available to the Mariners for a few dollars, the Mariners would sign both of them, without any question. I guess that’s an assumption, not actual knowledge, but it’s a safe assumption.
But there’s a connection, and then there’s the rest. There’s interest, and then there’s signing a guy. There’s signing a guy, and then there’s worrying about how he fits. The most important thing is the general accumulation of talent. Worry about fits when the talent is actually in-house. Remember that, earlier this offseason, the Mariners were said to have made a run at Russell Martin, even though they already have Mike Zunino. Room can be made if room needs to be made. If the Mariners actually acquired Olivera, he’d fit somewhere. It’s not like anyone on this team is a near-lock aside from Cano and Seager, and someone who can play second base can play a lot of things.
And Ibanez? If the Mariners had Ibanez, he’d just be a prospect. Nothing to worry about. Should the Mariners just ditch the prospects they have who play positions currently occupied by good players? You should just about never worry about a blocked prospect. Miraculously, teams figure out ways to proceed. No baseball team has ever been contracted because it had too much talent at the same one or two places.
The Mariners watched some players work out. They wouldn’t have done that if they had 0-percent interest, so, their interest level might be rightly described as non-0 percent. It’s pretty easy to go from there to “the Mariners badly want one or both of these Cubans!” That would be really blowing this out of proportion. And remember, there’s nothing special about the Mariners’ situation — every team in baseball knows these guys. Many of the teams want them. The odds are highly, highly against the Mariners signing Olivera, or Ibanez, or both, or really anyone decently high-profile. When it’s the Mariners against the field, you always bet the field.
So, probably, nothing comes of this. Already it doesn’t seem like anything will come of this. This story was just a thing that came up that allowed you to think about anything else besides life for a few minutes during a week. That’s either the whole point of why we’re here, or the very opposite of it. I’m still trying to work that out, but I think I’m getting close to the answer.
Podcast: Trying to Look Forward to Spring Training
The title sums it up. After nothing baseball-related happening in January, and a bunch of emotional other things happening, we attempt to focus on the future. It’s hard.
Podcast with Jeff (@based_ball) and Matthew (@msea1): Direct link! || iTunes link! || RSS/XML link!
Thanks again to those that helped support the show and/or StatCorner in general last week, and in the past, and hopefully in the future. It’s truly appreciated. And thank you to our sponsor for this episode, TodayIFoundOut!
Jesus Montero, Normal-Sized Person
You guys know the story of Crater Lake, right? I just kind of assume so, because the story is so familiar to me, but then that’s probably not fair; other people have other interests, and for most it’s just a piece of insignificant trivia. Who cares how a lake came to be? But let me at least run through this real quick: where Crater Lake is, there once stood a majestic snowy peak, the Mount Mazama Cascade volcano. The volcano erupted, as volcanoes are wont to do, and this particular eruption was inconceivably enormous, and much of the peak was destroyed. Some matter flew away; other matter collapsed inward, as the underground magma chamber emptied itself. When the dust settled and the rains and snows came, a lake formed within the giant crater, a lake where the water has nowhere to go.
The eruption took place around 5,677 BC. That is, the estimated date is 5,677 BC, plus or minus 150 years. There’s a 300-year window within which we believe the mountain destroyed itself. This is, scientifically, a very precise estimate. Oftentimes you get calculated windows stretching thousands or hundreds of thousands of years.
Meanwhile, Jesus Montero just missed his reporting weight by one year. Last year, they wanted him to weigh 235 pounds, and he instead weighed 275 pounds. Now? Now, one year later, he weighs 235 pounds on the nose. And they want us to think his weight was some kind of big deal a season ago? He barely missed his target. In the grand scheme of things, there’s nary a blink between 2014 spring training and 2015 spring training, so, as far as I’m concerned, kudos to Jesus Montero for doing what he was supposed to do, basically. People are always in such a hurry these days. Slow down and don’t worry about expiring deadlines. If you get it done late, you’re not really late. We just have a warped perception of the passing of time.
The message from the Mariners is this: there’s reason to be encouraged about Jesus Montero. They’ll tell you they never gave up on him. And it’s true, they didn’t, at least based on his remaining on the 40-man roster. Maybe that was faith, and maybe that was stubbornness, but here we are, and Jack Zduriencik is happy to tell anyone he knew Montero could figure things out. The organization didn’t give up on Montero, even if one scout in particular did. And maybe, in some small way, that very scout helped motivate Montero to whip himself in shape.
Motivation, you can try to identify in retrospect. Montero clearly wasn’t very motivated, that one time he said he spent the whole winter eating. That was one of the dumbest athlete quotes I’d ever heard, exactly on par with that caloric nonsense from Nick Franklin. Since then, the Mariners have blasted Montero in the press. They essentially removed him from his big-league peers, and they tried to make him learn a new position. Montero had that suspension to deal with, and then he finally got sent ice cream in a dugout. What just happened was a very embarrassing year. An extraordinarily embarrassing year. Somewhere, somehow, Montero was able to search within himself and find a little nugget of pride.
What’s being suggested, what’s being sold, is that Montero might be fixed as an individual, which would be the key to fixing him as a player. That seems too quick, too hasty, too easy. Montero is just 25 years old, and he’s experienced several years of hype. You can sort of see how he was able to lose his own way, and you know you are or were a completely different person at 30 than 20. Changes do happen, based on maturity and life experiences, and Montero just experienced a hell of a year. But you still need to have a little healthy skepticism. Sufficient self-motivation is among the Earth’s less prevalent resources, and Montero had none of it at 24. It’s hard to believe he’s just a whole new person. It’s almost impossible to create whole new people. But, it’s also not possible to lose as much weight as Montero has without being committed. So there’s at least evidence of Montero doing something hard, where he didn’t just rely on his god-given talent. Talent makes you a professional; drive lets you stick.
Understand what we’re talking about here. Jesus Montero now weighs about 40 pounds less than the previous version of Jesus Montero. That would be fantastic, if the Mariners were competing for the Team Weight Loss World Series. Instead, they’ll be competing for the regular old baseball World Series. Ultimately, what we want is for Montero to be a better baseball player. His defense wasn’t just about his weight. His swing wasn’t just about his weight. His discipline wasn’t just about his weight. Jesus Montero wasn’t bad because he was heavy. A lighter version of Jesus Montero, with the previous Jesus Montero’s approach, will just suck a little more per pound.
But this lets you have a little hope about the other stuff. Montero has been committed enough for long enough to get into playing shape. That suggests he might also be committed enough for long enough to get better at the game he plays for a job. His body should also no longer hold him back as much, not that he’s suddenly going to not run like a refrigerator rolling down a hill. It seemed like, before, when Montero would receive instruction, it just bounced off of him, like hail on a windshield. Now, perhaps, the instruction will be more likely to stick, like mosquitoes on a windshield. That’s the dream, anyway. Again, one generally doesn’t become a good student overnight, but Montero didn’t do this overnight. He did it over dozens of nights, hundreds of nights, after having been reduced to a punchline.
Think about it this way: if Montero were to come all the way back, and turn himself into a legitimate big-leaguer, this would be the first step, if you were to start a few months ago. This first step could lead down any number of paths, but it’s tough to envision Montero headed down the right path without doing this first. Let’s say, he just got himself to the proper trailhead. He still has to go practically the whole rest of the way, but at least he’s not badly lost.
The Jesus Montero career resurrection. That’s what we want to believe in, because at this point anything from Montero would be like free money. This guy here, who lost weight? We already wrote him off. He’s a seed that didn’t sprout, and we planted a whole other garden. Now there’s a shoot emerging from the soil. And, conveniently, if Montero did work out to some extent, this very team has a place for him, as a partner at first with Logan Morrison. The bench kind of needs a righty-hitting pseudo-slugger, and maybe that’s Montero’s job. Maybe he can be the last piece.
Take it as far as you want to. Stretch it out. It’s Friday evening — no one’s going to mind. These Mariners, they look like a pretty good baseball team. A team that could win its division. A team that could win the whole thing. Now imagine Montero on the team. Imagine him on the playoff bench. Imagine him in the playoff lineup, against a lefty like, I don’t know, Clayton Kershaw or Madison Bumgarner or Aroldis Chapman or who knows who. Imagine Montero as a contributor. Imagine Montero as a postseason hero. Imagine him delivering one hit you’ll never forget as long as you live. One swing of the bat can earn a guy a ballpark statue. What if it’s October, and in the moment we love Jesus Montero like we love no one else?
It’s easy to dream, and dreams are pleasing, as long as you know that they’re dreams. Dreams usually don’t come true. But, Jesus Montero usually doesn’t lose 40 pounds. Why wouldn’t he be exactly the player to deliver the Mariners’ first-ever championship? I mean, it’s kind of obvious. You’d be a fool not to see it.
How Not To React To The Mariners Getting Mike Kickham
Hello friends. You might’ve noticed that, earlier today, the Mariners swung a trade with the Cubs, picking up left-handed pitcher Mike Kickham. So now you’ve thought to visit the incredibly popular and consistently updated USS Mariner blog to see how you’re supposed to feel about this. Which is kind of one of the main purposes of blogs, right? To tell people how to feel about things? I appreciate your visit, and I’ll do you one better, or one worse, or one lateral — I’ll tell you how not to feel about this. Here is a variety of ways not to react to the Mariners trading for Mike Kickham today.
“Oh, great, that’ll really lock up the World Series title. Nice going, Mariners. Ugh.”
Why be sarcastic? Why be sarcastic and upset about something so trivial? Is this how you reacted to the Mariners dealing Matt Brazis for Justin Ruggiano? Is this how you reacted to the Mariners bringing back Mark Lowe on a minor-league contract, which is a thing that they recently did? For one thing, not every move is made with the World Series in mind. For another thing, in the event that a team does win the World Series, you can always point to contributing moves no one really expected to be contributing moves at the time. Remember when the Mariners had Yusmeiro Petit in the system? No one cared when he went to the Giants. Turned into a popular guy.
Of all the different potential responses, this is the negative one. If this is your default, you’re probably just a negative person, and no one ought to have time for negative, overly critical people. However often you’ve been told that you’re unpleasant, countless other people have kept the same feelings quiet. And, wait a second, didn’t the Mariners sign Nelson Cruz for many years and too much money? Aren’t you exactly the sort of fan that move was supposed to placate? Bathe in the warmth of the Nelson Cruz acquisition, you unhappy son of a bitch.
“I think this means the Mariners are looking to trade Taijuan Walker, probably soon. Can’t be a coincidence.”
Mike Kickham’s major-league ERA has two numbers before the decimal. His Triple-A ERA is in the mid-4s, and he doesn’t throw enough strikes, and his fastball hovers around 89 – 90, and the Cubs just recently designated Kickham for assignment to make roster room for Chris Denorfia, who last summer looked like toast. This has no more to do with Taijuan Walker than the Mariners acquiring Sam Gaviglio had to do with Taijuan Walker. This is like saying signing Mark Lowe means the Mariners are looking to trade Fernando Rodney. You almost literally can never have enough pitching depth.
“Time to turn around and flip Kickham for Mike Napoli. Red Sox need some more starters.”
Mike Napoli, the last two years, has posted an .818 OPS. Mike Kickham, the last two years, in the major leagues, has allowed a 1.062 OPS. Kickham is with his third organization in a month. The Red Sox wouldn’t trade Mike Napoli for Mike Kickham. They would trade Mike Napoli for Mike Kickham and a player to be named later, where the player to be named later is actually named immediately and his name is Kyle Seager. That would be a bad move, IMO.
“Time to turn around and flip Kickham for Ryan Howard. Phillies need some more starters.”
I listened to the radio for about five minutes today, and during those five minutes, after Jack Zduriencik hung up from an interview, the hosts debated whether the Phillies had recently offered the Mariners Ryan Howard, because Zduriencik said he’d recently declined a trade for an expensive veteran that would’ve cost a couple young players. The hosts then praised Zduriencik for not agreeing to the deal, if it was in fact Howard, which was a complete and utter guess on their part, and not even a good one. So, in case you’ve been wondering whether you should listen to sports talk radio more, please find your answer in this paragraph. It’s not laid out explicitly, but you’re sharp enough to see it.
“I can’t believe the Mariners gave up Lars Huijer for this.”
Yes you can. The hardest part of this to believe is that the Mariners had a player in the system named Lars Huijer in the first place. Don’t even pretend like you’d ever heard of him before. Try to pronounce Huijer out loud. Like right now, wherever you’re sitting. I bet you stumbled over syllables and there’s not even anyone around you to check your work and call you out. What you can’t believe is that there’s a name that has an H and a U and an I and a J and they’re all in a row. Did you see that story about the two climbers topping out on the Dawn Wall in Yosemite earlier today? It was thought to be impossible, but they pulled it off, and you’re not literally in disbelief over it. You can believe that two climbers free climbed the Dawn Wall on El Capitan. And you can believe the Mariners gave up Lars Huijer for Mike Kickham.
“I guess if he’s no good, the Mariners can Kickham to the curb!”
I’m just kidding, this is a fine response. People get way too weird about puns. Puns are the new clowns. Everyone used to say they were afraid of clowns, but almost no one actually was. And now whenever there’s a pun someone has or someones have to stage some artificial freakout. People act like a pun is the worst thing in the world, like it’s the most horrible and offensive thing they’ve read in a month. You’re not offended, you’re just putting on a show, and here’s the deep dirty secret: we all actually think puns are fun. They are fun. Everybody is wrong about puns. No, let me amend that: everybody acts wrong about puns. They don’t act like they actually feel. People who freak out about puns are liars.
“What number is Mike Kickham going to wear?”
Are you buying a personalized jersey? Don’t buy a personalized jersey.
Cynic’s Guide To Justin Ruggiano
This is based on a simple premise: the Cubs are smart. Well-run. Probably among the smartest, most well-run organizations in the game. They have an enviable, fairly proven front office, that we all believe is on the cutting edge of quantitative analysis. I think most Mariners fans would probably gladly exchange our front office for theirs. Now! Not everyone would agree with that suggestion, and if you don’t, that’s perfectly fine. I can’t make up your mind, and I don’t know everything about baseball. Sometimes I wonder if I know anything about baseball. But anyway, the premise, again: the Cubs seem like they’re really smart, and perhaps smarter than the Mariners. If you accept that, then we proceed.
A short while back, the Mariners picked up Justin Ruggiano from the Cubs, for a player no one had ever heard of. The Mariners needed a right-handed outfielder, and Ruggiano has looked mostly good when he’s played. He’s in his 30s, and he’s projected to cost about $2.5 million. When they dealt Ruggiano, the Cubs indicated they might not have had room for him.
The Cubs subsequently searched for a right-handed outfielder, available on the market. They just today signed Chris Denorfia, who you might remember as having just recently been a Mariner. Denorfia has looked mostly good when he’s played. He’s in his 30s, and he’s going to cost about $2.5 million. For the cost of Justin Ruggiano, the Cubs selected Chris Denorfia instead, and also added a minor-league reliever of not literally no note.
It seems like it’s simple: the Cubs just like Denorfia more than they like Ruggiano. Go back, now, to the premise — if the Cubs are smart, and smarter than the Mariners, then if the Cubs like Denorfia more than they like Ruggiano, what might that mean about Ruggiano? Do they think he’s about to collapse? Do they think he’s not worth anything in the clubhouse? Do they think Denorfia is about to bounce back? One notes that Denorfia was a 4-win player two seasons ago. One notes that Ruggiano just had a .375 BABIP, and his contact rate got worse. Denorfia seems like the better defender. Four years in a row, he was a good and underrated player.
So maybe the Mariners are missing something here. Maybe the Mariners got outsmarted by a top-tier organization. Now, there is the other side, too. Maybe Denorfia wasn’t at all willing to re-sign. Maybe the Cubs are wrong to prefer Denorfia to Ruggiano! Maybe the Cubs are right, but baseball’s unpredictable and Ruggiano will still perform better. Or maybe it just doesn’t matter, since we’re talking about a handful of runs from the light part of a corner-outfield platoon. The Mariners just got Seth Smith. Seth Smith is about to play a lot more baseball than Justin Ruggiano is. So, how much could it matter, really?
It’s not a big deal. Maybe it’s no kind of deal. But it got my attention. The Cubs gave a guy to the Mariners, then replaced him with an ex-Mariner on virtually identical terms. Seldom do I think things are laid out so simply. The Cubs preferred a different guy over the guy they already had. It appears like the Mariners thought the opposite. In truth it’s a little more complicated than that, but this is about as simple as it ever gets, and my gut feeling is that disagreeing with the Cubs will generally leave you on the wrong side of history. But maybe I’m being too nice to them. I tend to see the best in strangers.
Mariners Acquire Seth Smith, Obviously
There was a time, not long ago, the Mariners were openly content with going into next year with Brad Miller as a part-time outfielder. There was a time, not long ago, Glacier National Park projected to keep having a bunch of glaciers in it. Situations change, and as the Mariners came to terms with Miller as an outfielder, the Padres traded for all the other baseball players, which left some players on the outside looking in. The Padres made this easy. They showed the Mariners the way. The Mariners just had to go for a walk.
Having acquired Justin Ruggiano, the Mariners were poised to have a right-field platoon. All they needed was an opposite-handed willing member of a right-field platoon. Transcript of a front-office conversation:
Mariners executive: just about done
Mariners executive: all we could use now is a Seth Smith-type
Other Mariners executive: I have an idea
This became stupid obvious. Everyone knew it and there was no sense in denying it. The one hurdle is that the Padres had promised Smith they wouldn’t trade him back when they gave him a contract extension, but, those were different Padres, with different players under different management. This Padres front office didn’t make that Padres promise, so in the end, the Padres turned Seth Smith into Brandon Maurer, and the Mariners turned Brandon Maurer into one of these guys:
Maurer, of course, isn’t a nothing sacrifice. Yeah, it felt like the ship sailed in terms of his being a starter here. Yeah, the Mariners have a lot of pretty good relievers, and it’s generally not too difficult to accumulate more of them. The Mariners traded from depth. But in the bullpen, you like to have depth, especially hard-throwing young depth under team control for a while. Maurer last year, as a reliever, had 38 strikeouts and five walks, and two of those walks were intentional. Strikes and missed bats are all the ingredients you need to be good for an inning.
But if you figure the Mariners can survive losing Maurer, this is an exchange of a reliever for a semi-regular position player. As a rule of thumb, that’s the sort of deal you can support. Maurer isn’t a proven elite relief arm, and Smith can play a lot, and he’s under control for a few years. He doesn’t do much against lefties, but that’s why Justin Ruggiano exists. Seth Smith plays outfield defense like you’d expect from a guy whose name is Seth Smith, but that doesn’t mean he’s a liability. It means he’s uninteresting. Outfield defense can be a lot worse than uninteresting.
Really, you don’t need a bunch of numbers here. What does Smith do? He hits pretty well against righties. Is that a proven, sustainable skill? Well, you can never tell the future, but he’s been doing it for a while. His contract is reasonable and he’s not yet in his later 30s. He’s always hit enough, and eventually he’ll reach a point where that isn’t true anymore, but he should be fine in the short-term future in which the Mariners are a big-time contender. You don’t need to worry about his transitioning to a pitcher-friendly ballpark — Safeco isn’t Petco, specifically, but Safeco is Petco, generally. Smith’ll survive. Let me take that back. Indications are strong that Smith’ll survive. If he doesn’t, welp. Anyone can do anything, in a good way and a bad way.
As far as the roster is concerned, you figure things are just about complete. Bullpen’s stocked. Rotation’s stocked. Lineup’s stocked. Only thing missing from the bench is a right-handed corner-infield type, someone who looks a lot like a decent version of Jesus Montero. The Mariners might now believe they possess a decent version of Jesus Montero. If not, maybe they’ll get someone else, in a trade or as an NRI. I expect that Montero will be given an opportunity in March, as impossible as that would’ve been to believe last September.
Maybe the most interesting thing here is what it could mean for Brad Miller. God knows the most interesting thing isn’t Seth Smith. Miller, fortunately, is still Mariners property. They’ve gotten this far in the offseason keeping that the case. As things stand, Miller and Chris Taylor will compete for the starting shortstop job in spring training. The loser presumably heads to Triple-A. That feels like something of a concern, given that both Miller and Taylor project to do well in the season ahead, but, one thing the Mariners haven’t had a lot of is depth. Two potentially good shortstops increases the probability that you end up with one actual good shortstop, and there are also potential injuries, and cases of under-performance, and whatnot. It’s not a bad thing to have Miller or Taylor available in Tacoma. There doesn’t have to be a rush, and this way, midseason adversity would be a little less likely to be a significant problem. And this way, nothing changes about the chance of Miller becoming a long-term center fielder. The Mariners still like him as a possible outfielder. This just means he’s not an outfielder, in Seattle, at the start of next season.
Because of Seth Smith. Welcome, Seth Smith, perhaps the least surprising Mariners acquisition since Nelson Cruz, which I guess was hardly any amount of time ago. The Mariners have attempted a lot of fairly predictable things. They’ve pulled off a few of them. None of them have been dreadful, and the end(ish) result is a team that looks about as good as any other team in the league. Seth Smith does little to alter anything in a major way, but there was a piece missing from the puzzle, and the Mariners slid in the appropriate and recommended puzzle piece, from the box. That’s what you’re supposed to do, but you still feel a little buzz when you get the right pieces to fit.
M’s Adding Seth Smith?
Shannon Drayer tweeted that a deal sending LH OF Seth Smith from San Diego to Seattle was imminent. At this point, the only name associated with San Diego’s return has been Brandon Maurer, but the final deal hasn’t taken shape yet. Bob Dutton mentions that the player heading south is a reliever, so while it might not be Maurer, it’s probably not Taijuan Walker or one of the shortstops.
Smith is a classic platoon OF, a lefty with patience (a major league walk rate above 10% for his career) and a bit of power, he’s a career 123 wRC+ hitter against righties, but he’s completely lost against southpaws (wRC+ of 63, career SLG% of .314). He’s coming off his best season as a big leaguer, with a slash line of .266/.367/.440, good for a wRC+ of 133. In July, with his wRC+ hovering in the 150s, the Padres extended Smith a new two-year, $13 million deal. Unfortunately, Smith immediately dropped off – his power vanished and he dealt with minor injuries – and while his contract is still quite reasonable, he was no longer a starter in San Diego, who just acquired three full-time OFs in Wil Myers, Matt Kemp and Justin Upton (they’ve still got Will Venable, too, at least for now).
His Steamer projection has him giving up quite a bit of the offensive gains he made last year, but still settling in as a reasonable bench bat, adding a few runs above average as a platoon player. Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projection is similar – a slash line of .245/.328/.396 in Safeco. The line’s a bit lower than the Steamer projection, but then Steamer didn’t know he’d be playing in Safeco. Smith isn’t an asset on defense, but he combines with Justin Ruggiano to form a pretty good RF tandem.
Maurer clearly has the talent to pitch in the bigs, but his M’s tenure was frustratingly inconsistent. After opening eyes and winning a rotation spot in 2013, he fell apart – an ERA well over 6, a trip to the minors, rumblings that he was done as a starter. He seemed like a great bounce-back candidate in 2014, but his starts weren’t any better. While he showed decent stuff, he struggled with men on base, and gave up too many home runs. However, a move to the bullpen and one-inning starts produced excellent results, as his velocity played up (he averaged 97 down the stretch) and his change-up allowed him to be effective against lefties.
There’s still a lot to like in Maurer. As a set-up man, he’s got plus velocity, a decent slider, and at least the makings of a good change-up. He hasn’t commanded it thus far, but he’s also not completely lost against lefties the way he was in 2013. His FIP has been better than his ERA both seasons, and he’s young enough that a move back to the rotation could still work. As a fly-baller, he’d be in a good environment in Petco and the NL West, too. For the M’s, though, this is another trade from depth. Maurer’s FIP was lower than his ERA because his ERA was absurdly high. He was effective out of the pen, but the M’s have so many solid righty bullpen arms that he had more value to them in trade. Turning a 23rd round bullpen arm who’d been demoted in both 2013 and 2014 (and looked mentally lost at times) into a league-average OF bat is pretty amazing. Maurer has potential, and he looked electric in short stints last year. But it’s only that potential – potential he struggled to deliver on – that makes this swap a possibility.
Podcast: A Ripple Amongst a Storm
Many teams made big splashes (nautical puns!) but the Mariners satisfy themselves, for now, with a tiny ripple.
Podcast with Jeff (@based_ball) and Matthew (@msea1): Direct link! || iTunes link! || RSS/XML link!
Thanks again to those that helped support the show and/or StatCorner in general last week, and in the past, and hopefully in the future. It’s truly appreciated. And thank you to our sponsor for this episode, TodayIFoundOut!
Justin Ruggiano For Basically Free
The Cubs are trying to contend right now. I think that’s become pretty clear, with the moves that they’ve already made. If you examine the Cubs’ current roster, I think it’s fairly evident they could use some help in the outfield. Okay, so, file that away.
Have you ever heard of Matt Brazis? Had you ever heard of him before today? I don’t know anything about Matt Brazis, and I’m sure he’s a great guy, but the people to whom Brazis is most important have nothing at all to do with major league baseball. Brazis has never been on the organizational radar. I should note that, by the way, Brazis was in the Mariners’ system. He’s not anymore. He’s the guy the Cubs just accepted, in exchange for Justin Ruggiano.
That feels like a data point. The Mariners just filled a need in trade, and they did so for basically nothing, getting a guy who might’ve helped the team he was already on. That tells you something about how the Cubs viewed Ruggiano, and that can’t be ignored, but we can proceed only with what we know and what we know is that Ruggiano appears like a fine short-term fit with the roster the Mariners have built.
He’s right-handed, so, check. He’s a versatile outfielder, so, check. He’s relatively inexpensive, so, check. Ruggiano isn’t Justin Upton, and he’s not even close. This isn’t the sexy acquisition so many people have been hoping for. Ruggiano shouldn’t even be a starter. But, again: the Mariners didn’t need one outfielder. They needed to find two. Ruggiano’s one, and I think Brad Miller turns into the other.
Maybe the Mariners keep scouring the market, and maybe they bring in another guy, but as is I think that’s unlikely. Seems like there’s one more spot open on the bench, but that could go to someone capable of spelling Logan Morrison. Even more helpful would be a guy capable of replacing Logan Morrison against left-handed pitchers. Because it’s still the middle of December we can’t predict exactly how the spring-training roster will shape up, but I think if you look at what the Mariners have, you’ve got a more or less complete team.
A key with Ruggiano is that he has a lifetime 128 wRC+ against southpaws. He has the same number of extra-base hits against lefties as against righties, in a little over half the trips to the plate. So Ruggiano pairs well with Miller and Dustin Ackley, and he’s center-field capable, while short of center-field good. Miller, for the record, has posted a 104 wRC+ against righties, and a 72 wRC+ against lefties. Against righties, he’s had more power, and against lefties, he’s had more strikeouts. It was obvious last year that Miller struggles against even decent left-handed pitching, and though most people expect his bat to improve, the Mariners can have only so much patience in a season where they’re trying to win a championship.
Naturally, there are valid concerns. Ruggiano is coming up on 33 years old. Everyone younger than 33 is coming up on 33 years old, but Ruggiano is closer to the finish line than most. Last season he fought some injuries and he flashed less power, especially to the pull side. It’s possible the Mariners are adding a useful player too late, like they did with Chris Denorfia. Denorfia was an underrated asset with the Padres earlier on, but by 2014 he’d become a shell, and he stopped hitting. If Ruggiano’s just about toast, all this will do is lead to outs, and the Mariners will have to search for help again. But considering the price, I think this is a worthwhile shot. If Ruggiano doesn’t work out, the team isn’t stuck with him. And they won’t be killed by a role player being ineffective for a handful of months.
As for Miller as an outfielder and a utility type, it’s looking increasingly likely. The Mariners did try to trade him once, for Matt Kemp, but that didn’t go anywhere and since then the team’s become more protective of the guy. Obviously, they didn’t bid up Melky Cabrera too far. They didn’t bid up Alex Rios. They haven’t made a strong push for Justin Upton. The Mariners keep talking about how they believe Miller is going to hit, and some of that is just supporting their own player, but also, I think the confidence is real. And the idea of Miller moving around and playing some outfield isn’t a new one. Some say he’s a natural. So why pay steeply for an outfielder if you might not actually need one?
Ideally, Chris Taylor does well at short, and Miller and Ruggiano do well in right. There you go, two positions solved. Miller is also valuable as Taylor insurance, in case his bat doesn’t really come around. Under those circumstances, you demote Taylor, you shift Miller to short, and in the middle of the year you try to pick up a left-handed role player. If Ruggiano doesn’t do anything, you try to pick up a right-handed role player. If Taylor and Ruggiano bust, you find a regular outfielder. If Taylor and Miller bust, uh oh. If all three of them bust, come on, pitching staff! There are a lot of ways this can go. The most likely way is that, at both positions, the Mariners are fine. Maybe not great, but probably not terrible. And they’d have a right-field solution that was inexpensive, and didn’t sacrifice any future assets.
A lot of people want impact additions. A lot of people want an impact right fielder. A lot of people think an impact right fielder would put the Mariners right over the top. Well, maybe, but, at what cost? Impact additions are distracting. In a lot of ways they’re overrated. Justin Upton is something like a 3-win player. Maybe 4, if he’s really clicking. What do you make of Ruggiano and Miller, as a tandem? Is that 2 wins? That doesn’t seem over-optimistic. I’d say it might even be low. What’s the real difference between Upton and a Ruggiano/Miller platoon? Would it be worth giving away what it would take? What if the Mariners traded Miller for a right fielder? Would it be worth giving up the talent and the shortstop insurance? If nothing else, I’m content to let the Mariners evaluate what they have and re-visit if they need to in June or July. Prices will be higher, but by then at least we’ll know if the Mariners actually need anything.
I don’t think they need much more than they have. Not at the moment. The Mariners are almost through the offseason, and they have a good team, and they still have Miller, and Taylor, and Taijuan Walker, and James Paxton, and an intact farm system. They’re down one Michael Saunders, and I’ll never like that, but this all could’ve gone worse. The Matt Kemp trade probably would’ve been worse. Now the Mariners have added a useful role player and they seem open to leveraging Brad Miller’s pop and athleticism. As many different ways as this could’ve gone, it’s gone a decent way. Justin Ruggiano doesn’t make the Mariners a World Series contender on his own, but he fits with what was already a legitimate World Series contender, and the future’s remained untouched.
A Quick And Unoriginal Thought
Girlfriend and I are finally getting through House Of Cards. I won’t spoil anything, and I’ll expect that you won’t spoil anything, but at one point there’s a reference to the “deep internet”, where like 96% of the internet exists, in private. I don’t know if that’s a real thing, because I don’t actually know anything about technology, but I’m just using it here as an introductory technique so let’s all agree to play along. The idea is that there’s the public internet, the face of the internet that anyone can see, but then there’s a lot more to it behind the scenes, and you have to know how to get there in order to gain whatever information you seek. That’s enough of this paragraph, since I’m sure you get the concept.
So let’s talk front office. Let’s talk the Seattle Mariners’ front office. We know all the moves they actually make, because we hear about them and we read about them and we analyze them and we see players come and go. We know that the Mariners signed Robinson Cano because we saw press releases, and photographs, and then most importantly we saw Robinson Cano playing for the Mariners. That transaction list on Mariners.com? Yeah, those are all real events. Think of that as the surface internet.
And there can be so much…let’s just call it luck. There’s so much unpredictability when it comes to players you move. Chone Figgins looked like a tremendous investment until it turned out he was one of the worst investments ever. Franklin Gutierrez looked like an amazing long-term center fielder until he came down with a virtually undiagnosable illness. Going just a little bit deeper, the Mariners got more than they could’ve expected out of Chris Young. Yet, they had to know that the Nationals were going to dump Chris Young, and the Mariners also needed for Randy Wolf to turn down their contractual advances. Young was a big reason why last year’s M’s were able to compete. What if that were Randy Wolf instead?
It’s easy to observe everything that happens on the surface. Humans know what the tops of the oceans look like. We know surprisingly little about the rest. As easy as it is to see what there is to be seen, it’s also easy to forget there’s a hell of a lot more that doesn’t happen. And sometimes it can come really close to happening. For example, Melky Cabrera just signed with the White Sox for the same sort of contract that the Mariners were offering him to play right field. Cabrera ultimately didn’t want to play as far away from everything as Seattle, but that could’ve easily happened. Whatever the Mariners do in right field, that could’ve been Cabrera. Maybe with a little more money. Maybe if Cabrera had just slept different.
There’s that talk about what the Mariners offered to get Matt Kemp at about half his salary. It seems, before the Mariners signed Nelson Cruz, they offered the Dodgers Brad Miller, Michael Saunders, and a third piece. I wouldn’t have loved that trade for the Mariners, but while the team says Miller isn’t exactly on the way out, the fact of the matter is that they offered him in a trade that easily could’ve been accepted. Ultimately the Dodgers did even better, but the Mariners made a hefty bid.
You, of course, remember that the Mariners agreed to trade for Justin Upton, and then Upton used his no-trade clause to block it. That’s as close as you get to a thing that happened, among moves that didn’t officially happen. The Mariners right now are trying to talk up Taijuan Walker. What if they didn’t have him? They tried to not have him, as well as Nick Franklin and more. How different would things be?
What if the Mariners successfully convinced Josh Hamilton to sign with them instead of the Angels? What if the Mariners successfully convinced Prince Fielder to sign with them instead of the Tigers? Last winter, the Mariners offered Nick Franklin and more for a mediocre short-term starting pitcher. When the deal was accepted, the Mariners pulled it off the table. Recently, the Mariners declined a trade proposal that, in the short-term, I think would’ve made them probably the best team in the majors. It would’ve set them up to be something of a 2015 juggernaut. It was turned down, but it didn’t have to be turned down, and the proposal wasn’t absurd. So many things, and more, that come close to happening, that just don’t happen. We hear about a few of them. We don’t hear about most of them. There’s a steady stream of proposals going in two directions, and you don’t want to leave that stuff out when you’re thinking about how you want to evaluate a given front office. It’s just, what do you do when you have such a large set of the mostly unknown?
Let’s say someone asked you to rate a general manager. Where do you start? You look at team success. But then you have all the unknowns. To what extent was the GM able to spend? How many members of the front office were responsible for various moves? What do you do with the draft? How do you factor in player development? What about randomness around player performance? Around team performance? What about moves you know about that didn’t happen? What about moves you don’t know about that didn’t happen? The last one is so potentially big. We interpret a big-league roster to be reflective of the front office’s plan. But to what extent is that true? How well is the front office able to execute its actual plan, and how much is just responding to things no one really saw coming?
There aren’t any answers. We can only evaluate based on what we know. What we know is probably insufficient, but then that’s why people read so heavily into quotes and little moves that might reflect roster-building philosophies. It turns into a gut-feeling thing, and while one doesn’t like to lean upon gut feelings in baseball analysis, there’s not a whole lot else we can do. What’s your opinion of the Jack Zduriencik front office? How big are your error bars? What would that opinion be if Zduriencik were free to do exactly what he wanted to do? What if he were more predictably punished and rewarded? This team right now could look so different. Wouldn’t have taken too much. So how heavily do we weight Jack Zduriencik’s actual, right-now baseball team? It’s an unanswerable question, and this is just a philosophical think-piece, but then I wasn’t prepared for Melky to be off the board so quickly. Thought I’d be writing more about Melky Cabrera. Got thrown for a loop.
What are the Seattle Mariners? They’re complicated. They’re a sports team, though, and the neat thing about sports teams is however much you think about the people in charge of building the team, when the season’s actually happening it’s easy to forget about all that nonsense and just root for wins and health. From an outsider’s perspective, a lot of baseball’s too hard to predict. It’s not all that different from an insider’s perspective. They, at least, know the moves that do and don’t happen. They know how they actually think. We’re just left to root for one version of a roster that could’ve been a thousand other rosters.