Game 4, Juggernaut at Athletics
Roenis Elias vs. Dan Straily, 7:05pm
In the Rainiers piece below, I talked about Blake Beavan as a guy who, paradoxically, has been killed in AAA and only severely maimed in the majors. Dan Straily is the perhaps more well-known opposite case: a guy who was unhittable in AAA, and is merely so-so in the bigs. Straily shot through the A’s system as an unheralded late-round draft pick, and he wasn’t just a BABIP fluke guy. He threw fairly hard, and struck out basically everyone in the minors in 2012, earning himself a mid-season call-up. There, he suddenly struggled with the long-ball. The guy who gave up 10 HRs in 160 innings in the Cal League yielded 11 in just 39 big league innings.
Straily’s four-seam fastball has a good deal of vertical movement, and it comes in around 91. So far, so Beavan. As I look at the repertoire and delivery, I’m not floored that he gives up about a HR per 9 (he was better in 2013 after that initial flurry of gopher balls). I AM floored that his HR rate was half of that in the altitude-and-bandbox-rich Pacific Coast League. I can see why a rising fastball and a willingness to pitch up resulted in MiLB strikeouts, but I’m still a bit surprised they didn’t come with a cost.
In fact, Straily’s rise reminds me a bit of what happened to Brandon Maurer last year. Like Maurer, Straily hadn’t dealt with HR problems, and like Maurer, he hadn’t shown ANYTHING in the way of platoon splits. When the two arrived in the majors, they were suddenly presented with two interlocked problems: lefties hit them, and hit them really, really hard. Straily’s splits from his very small-sample 2012 are kind of laughable, but they also look kind of familiar. In that sense, it’s telling that Straily’s become something of a normal, middle-of-the-rotation arm with sizable but not unheard of platoon splits. What happened? A part of the answer is regression, as that is a part of the answer to just about every question in life. But a part of it may be a change in approach.
Like Maurer, Straily came up a 4-seam, slider, change pitcher, and quickly found his 4-seam and change weren’t fooling lefties. So in 2013, he worked in the odd sinker, and also threw his slider more to lefties, particularly when ahead. The sinker in particular wasn’t a great pitch on its own, but having a few more options probably helped keep hitters off balance. It’s something I know Maurer tried to do last year post-callup, but it’s something for him to work on in Tacoma this year as well.
All of this gets us to Roenis Elias, the newest pitcher attempting to jump to the majors and hope his MiLB success carries over. Now, Elias is a completely different animal than Straily/Maurer, with very different concerns. I’ve mentioned that he’d be the most fly-ball dominant pitcher on the staff if the FO hadn’t brought in literally the most extreme fly-baller in baseball in Chris Young. The M’s OF has been mostly OK, but they’ve also had very little to do in the first series. Almonte looked pretty good, Ackley less so, but with Felix and Paxton throwing two of the games, it’s been all about Ks and GBs. Elias’ tendency to mix arm angles may help his deception, and should help against tough lefties, but it’s tended to come at the price of control/command. Maybe it’s just because I’m thinking about Maurer and Straily’s very early struggles, but at least for a while, that may be a price worth paying. The A’s have looked solid (except for their closer…yeeesh), but Elias shouldn’t feel like he needs to attack Cespedes or Donaldson with men on base. That said, the A’s have stacked their line-up with switch-hitters, so Elias isn’t going to get too many chances to breathe.
1: Almonte, CF
2: Miller, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Smoak, 1B
5: Hart, DH
6: Seager, 3B
7: Morrison, RF
8: Ackley, LF
9: Zunino, C
SP: Elias
The lefty-heavy line-up for today, with Hart and Zunino the only righties. Good move, though Ackley/Morrison/Almonte isn’t the *ideal* defensive OF for Elias’ major league debut. Hey, major league debut, wooooo!
At least he’s in a good park for his skillset.
The Fangraphs WE figures have this game basically a 50:50 toss-up. Not sure why, frankly…it can’t be reacting to the M’s offensive prowess so soon. Just feels odd that the M’s were severe underdogs last night and essentially 50:50 in another away game with a guy coming up from AA to make his MLB debut. Huh.
The start of the minor league season is always one of my favorite days of the year. Here’s your annual reminder that MiLB.tv is a bargain and it’s awesome. If you bought mlb.tv, I think you get MiLB.tv for free…use it. The Rainiers games are all televised, and the Jackson Generals should be on as well. They’ll head to Pensacola to face rising prospect RHP Robert Stephenson from 4/30-5/4, and they’ll face 3B Kris Bryant of the Cubs org from 4/14-4/18.
Today’s Fun Fact
The Mariners are 3-0 and have the best record in the American League. Go crazy!
That is the most-fun fact for now, and it’s a fact I’ve printed out and rubbed all over my body, but it’s actually not the fact I had in mind for this little post. Allow me to do something kind of arbitrary. The Mariners have the best second baseman in baseball. As Dave suggested the other day, they might have the best shortstop in the American League as long as Jose Reyes is hurt. Kyle Seager isn’t great, but he’s perfectly fine. If you combine second, short, and third, the Mariners are projected for the second-best combination in the majors, between the Rays and the Rockies. I know it’s silly — it’s not even just like saying “left side of the infield” — but, within the infield, you can find one of the Mariners’ team strengths.
And something I was thinking about the other day: Robinson Cano was never a Baseball America top-100 prospect. Brad Miller was never a Baseball America top-100 prospect. Kyle Seager was never a Baseball America top-100 prospect. They were never nothing, but coming up, they were simply interesting pieces. They’ve all blossomed into quality regulars, and critical pieces that might drive the Mariners toward contention.
And it’s funny to think about after the disappointment of the last few years. The Mariners were let down over and over by Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak, and Jesus Montero, who’d all been among the best prospects on the lists. Smoak ranked 13th and 23rd. Ackley ranked 11th and 12th. Montero ranked 6th, 3rd, 4th, and 38th. Of course, the Mariners could still use success from Ackley and Smoak, right now and going forward, but they no longer need it. The lineup doesn’t depend on those guys.
Credit for Miller and Seager has to go to player development, as well as to the players themselves. With Cano, it’s not like he’s a Mariners product, and they just got him after he was already great, but it’s still of interest to me that one of the absolute best players in baseball didn’t look like a future superstar while climbing through his system. You’ll find a lot of WAR coming from those prospect lists. You’ll also find a lot of WAR coming from somewhere else, and the Mariners infield stands as a demonstration. The two worst starters right now out of the five have been the two most highly-touted prospects.
Felix Hernandez? He topped out at 2nd. Taijuan Walker? He’s topped out at 11th. James Paxton, 52nd. Erasmo Ramirez, unranked. Doesn’t mean Ramirez is worthless. Means Ramirez was overlooked, literally and figuratively, and means Ramirez has done well to get the most out of his skillset. And he’s still developing, and his big-league numbers are terrific for a 23-year-old.
There’s no bigger point, here. This edition of Today’s Fun Fact probably could’ve been condensed into a single tweet. But the Mariners’ players have some interesting histories, and if that doesn’t interest you, the Mariners are also 3-0 and they have the best record in the American League. Go crazy!
Happy Rainers Opening Day
We just had opening day in MLB, and look how great that felt. Why not do it all over again, but in dozens and dozens of smaller cities across the country? JY’s given you the run-down of the rosters and who to watch, but I can’t let this day go without saying something about the greatness of the minors and some of the interesting series to put on your calendar.
Today’s Rainiers game pits Blake Beavan against righty Stephen Fife of the Albuquerque Isotopes. Both starters fall into a rather unfortunate category – those who are probably better suited for MLB than the PCL, but aren’t terribly well-suited to MLB either. Not quite good enough to crack the roster of their big league club, they have to make their low-90s/high-80s work in an environment seemingly built to destroy low-90s fastballs. Fife has the good sense to throw sinkers in the high-altitude environment of Albuquerque, and Beavan’s fly-balling ways are well-suited to Tacoma-in-April, but the league context is so toxic, that they’re not looking to put up gaudy stats and force a call-up. They’re here to get in work and wait for the call.
The Rainiers look to be a solid club this year, with a solid offense hopefully making up for a so-so rotation. As Jay mentioned, the bullpen looks excellent, so if they can get leads, they stand a good chance of holding on to them. Nick Franklin’s obviously the guy to watch on offense, and I’m curious to see how James Jones takes to the PCL this season after seeing him for just a couple of days at the tail end of 2013. Carson Smith is, to me, the best pitching prospect, with his sidearm delivery and 92-94mph sinkers/sliders causing serious problems to batters throughout his tenure in the org. Dominic Leone has more pure velocity, and he could see Seattle this year as well.
Games to see: We’ve talked about it before, but pitching depth was at a premium in MLB this year, as so many starters went down in the off-season or during spring training. That’s meant that a lot of pitchers who ordinarily might have been ticketed for the PCL are now in the majors (like Roenis Elias), and it feels like we’re not seeing quite as many great starters begin in AAA in 2014 as we did last year with Wacha, Walker, Paxton, Miller, etc. That said, the PCL isn’t bereft of great pitchers. The early season series to target if you want to see high-quality arms is probably the early-May four-gamer in which the Rainiers host the Las Vegas 51s. Las Vegas is the Mets’ affiliate, and boasts Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero. IF Wilmer Flores will be around too.
A few weeks later, the Reno Aces come to Tacoma, which ought to give us the opportunity to see #5 prospect in baseball Archie Bradley. Salt Lake’s in town to close out May, and they should sport the Angels top prospect, 2B Taylor Lindsey, but “top prospect for the Angels” hasn’t meant a whole lot in the barren, post-Trout years. We haven’t mentioned Javier Baez, far and away the best prospect in the PCL, and perhaps all of AAA. That’s because his Iowa Cubs don’t come to town until late August, and if Baez (and double-play partner Arismendy Alcantara) are still on the team, something may have gone wrong. Baez made a splash in spring training, including hitting one HR against the M’s that still hasn’t come down, and I just can’t see him lasting until August.
The other big position player prospect to catch would be George Springer, who, somewhat surprisingly, returns to Oklahama City to start 2014. OKC heads to Tacoma June 21st-24th, and they also feature 1B Jon Singleton and RHP Mike Foltynewicz, meaning that they have three of the top 100 prospects in baseball (or did…not sure Singleton is/should be on there anymore). The second series of the year features new PCL club El Paso, the new Padres’ affiliate (they’re building a new stadium in downtown El Paso, but it isn’t done yet, so they’ll be on the road essentially all of April). They’re not exactly loaded (though pitcher Keyvius Sampson’s worth seeing), but they’re called the Chihuahuas, and there’s something perfectly minor league about that.
Cheap beer night is Thursday (including tonight), GOOD beer night is Wednesday (NW Craft Beer night, $5 20oz beers from the featured brewery each Wed. home game). You should go early and often.
2014 Tacoma Rainiers Preview
If you’re now wondering about this or that player whom you may not be seeing in these previews, I’d recommend starting here and scrolling back through their archives to see who has been released lately. Those not released are either in extended or injured in some way. This year it was particularly a who’s who of “oh yeah, I remember that guy! Man, whatever happened to him?” Lots of guys who at one point were draft intrigues or ranked at the back end of top 30 lists based on an interesting thing or two that they could do. The Rainiers this year seem to be… average? The rotation is uninteresting and uninspiring at the moment, but competent. The bullpen fares better on the account of employing a couple Destroyers of Worlds and a few other guys who you could probably trust with a lead. The catchers know how to catch and the infielders mostly know how to hit and the outfielders, if nothing else, can run a ball down. It’s not a star-powered roster or anything but it can probably manage out there in the wilds of the PCL.
As for where the ramblings take us, we have schadenfreude, pica (sort of), everyone’s favorite rhetorical technique, guys who could be in Pantene commercials, the 188th most popular male baby name of the 1980s, dread and doomsaying, players the Oakland A’s would probably like, and repeated instances of name confusion and pointless conjecture. Let’s get to it.
2014 Jackson Generals Preview
Good morning, people still on a high after sweeping the Angels for the first time since 2006. I can’t think of a more deserving group. This will be the third installment in which I address the state of our double-A Jackson Generals of the Southern League, formerly the West Tenn Diamond Jaxx. I miss those Xs sometimes, it’s nostalgic in a 90s sort of way. The digression machine this round takes me to the unreliability of the written word properly conveying tone, unpopular music opinions (I have MANY), splicing of data that the mind refuses to process, my preferences in hard liquor, a Wilson Valdez name check, things that seem really Irish, someone I describe as being a professional enigma (and translate into how unpopular my music opinions can be), the depression that follows an encounter with the sublime knowing that day-to-day life is going to fail to live up to it later, and… I think that covers it.
There’s not a lot of high-end talent, we’re talking one top ten guy, one on the fringe of that, a guy in the late teens, a guy or two in the twenties, and various thirty/forty-somethings. It’s better than High Desert, probably not quite the ceiling that the top guys have in Clinton, but you know what? This rotation looks good. The bullpen has some solid contributors and few weak points. The catchers are reliable. The infield has some guys that can drive the ball and the outfield has some that can cover ground and all of the starters out there can hit. Some of these players, even at this level, are still improving, still somewhat unknown to me, and with some things breaking right, they could really be a force. Could be a middle of the road team, but there’s potential for a lot more. I like this team. I like where it’s going. Let’s get to it.
So You Want To Celebrate The Mariners, Responsibly
First of all, why? Go nuts. One doesn’t get to feel this feeling very often, so why not choose to believe in the Mariners for as long as you can? Don’t worry about embarrassing yourself. The Mariners have already embarrassed you enough times before. Appreciate what there is to be appreciated. Last year’s team won its first two games, and then it won just 69 of its remaining games. If you made a point of staying responsible early, did it really make the season any better? You don’t win points for staying grounded as a sports fan, and if you don’t have fun when fun is being handed to you, you’re going to hate this, because shit’s probably a’brewin’. Things are going to get worse.
But, all right, I’ll grant that it’s possible to go too far, even with early good feelings. You might consider that, while the Mariners are undefeated and have looked great, the Astros, too, are undefeated. The White Sox are undefeated. The calendar’s going to turn as I’m writing this, but right now in the corner of my monitor it says 11:54 PM, 4/2/2014, which means it’s April 2 and the season lasts after April for kind of a long time. There is so, so much unpredictable baseball coming our way, and odds are at some point the Mariners will even lose a game.
What just happened was that the Mariners finished off a dominant three-game sweep on the road against a division rival. A division rival who might have been projected as the best team in the AL West as recently as the weekend. The Mariners were firing on just about every cylinder, while the Angels’ cylinders, I don’t know, exploded, I don’t know very much about cylinders. The Mariners both walked and hit the crap out of the ball. They struck out Angels hitters and they didn’t walk them much. Not many ways that series could’ve gone better, as it’s a special kind of something to make the other team’s fans boo their own favorites. Angels fans are hating baseball right now, and the Angels have only played the Mariners.
Here’s how I’m choosing to be both excited and reasonable. It’s all about the playoff odds. Even this early, it’s all about the playoff odds. That’s kind of the point, right? I mean, in reality it isn’t — the point is the journey — but we have to lie to ourselves and believe the playoffs are the point. The Mariners, now, are 3-0, and those games can’t be taken away. The Angels are 0-3, and those games also can’t be taken away. Let’s pull some numbers out of thin air. If you thought the Angels were an 86-win team, now they’re an 84.4-win team. If you thought the Mariners were an 81-win team, now they’re an 82.5-win team. Whatever gap there was has been shrunk, and, hey, the A’s are 1-2. It’s never too early for the wins to start counting, and look right now at the FanGraphs playoff odds page.
The numbers aren’t perfect — they’ll never be perfect, until the playoff picture is clinched — but at the moment the Mariners have the sixth-best odds in the American League. They’re right between the A’s and the Indians, and I should note that the Rangers’ projection includes some mistakenly productive numbers for a couple starting pitchers who are transitioning from the bullpen. Of course, five teams make the playoffs, and one of those teams is done in a day, but before it didn’t look like the Mariners were the sixth-best team in the AL, so they’ve gained some ground. Their playoff odds are already up nearly ten percentage points. That is an incredible lift, even if they still aren’t at or over 50%.
43.9%. That’s what FanGraphs says right now. It’s going to change, and eventually that number’s going to be either 0% or 100%. But I’ll take my chances with that number tonight, because that number’s a lot higher than it recently was, and there’s no going backwards since the sweep in Anaheim is already in the books. 43.9%. You know Edgar Martinez’s career OBP? 41.8%. How good did you feel when Edgar would come up to the plate? He made a lot of outs. He reached base a lot too.
The Astros haven’t lost, and the 1985 Mariners were the first Mariners team to open 3-0. They actually opened 6-0. Shortly thereafter they were 7-12. They finished 74-88 and the team kept sucking for years. There are so many ways we know this could go wrong, and this could also go wrong in ways we couldn’t possibly imagine. If the Mariners have done anything, it’s explore the very frontiers of losing baseball. But it’s okay to feel good. It’s okay to feel even better than you did a few days ago. A few days ago, the Mariners were in considerably worse shape. They still had to face a good team in its own ballpark. Now that team’s been obliterated. By this team!
Felix was great, Erasmo Ramirez was great, James Paxton was great, and some of the hitters were great. Some good performances have been in line with expectations, and other good performances have suggested we might want to raise expectations. Everything is going to even out, but it was possible before to envision this Mariners team getting to October. It was clear what would have to happen. Those things have happened so far, and then some. The Mariners can make the playoffs without outscoring the opposition by six runs a game.
Let the Mariners make you feel good. You never know how long that’s going to last. Maybe this year it’ll last a long, long time. No reason not to believe that, yet.
Game 3, Mariners at Angels
James Paxton vs. Hector Santiago, 7:05pm
Last season, the M’s had two great starters and, for most of the year anyway, a gooey mess of a back end rotation. Tonight, we get our first peek at the new and hopefully improved rotation as lefty James Paxton takes the hill. I’ve written tons about Paxton, but he’s become critically important this year. With Walker and Iwakuma’s delayed start, and with the questions surrounding Elias and Young, it’s vital that the M’s get actual production and not just replacement-level stand-ins behind Felix. The division is tight, and having Felix surrounded by four scrubs would certainly remove one of the four contenders. Erasmo Ramirez showed that he can be tough to hit when he’s healthy; now it’s Paxton’s turn.
Opposing him is lefty Hector Santiago who came in from the White Sox in the big 3-way trade involving Mark Trumbo. Santiago throws a bunch of pitches, but is primarily a fastball/change guy, with some surprising life on his fastball. Both in the rotation and in the pen, he’s generated high strikeout rates that have helped keep his runs allowed manageable given his two big problems: walks and home runs. Santiago’s walk rate is over 11%, and he’s given up over 1 HR per 9 innings pitched. It’s a big reason why his FIP and xFIP are in the mid-4’s – not someone you’d trade anyone of value for. But his ERA is lovely. Consider him a very poor man’s Hisashi Iwakuma. Like Kuma, Santiago’s ERA is a run lower than his FIP. His change-up helps him minimize platoon splits, but unlike Kuma, Santiago still has them. Kuma doesn’t walk anyone,* but the HRs and sequencing push his runs allowed far below what you’d expect looking at his three true outcomes. Santiago is only good by ONE of the three true outcomes, but on the plus side, he’s moving from a park that’s very HR friendly to a HR-suppressing park.
1: Almonte, CF
2: Miller, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Smoak, 1B
5: Hart, DH
6: Romero, RF
7: Ackley, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Bloomquist, 3B
SP: Paxton, LHP
I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but Fangraphs now has pre-game win expectancy on their scores page. Here’s tonight’s. You can see that the model still isn’t buying the M’s offense, especially against a lefty. Last night’s game was one of the most lopsided, with the Angels having a hair over a 60% chance of winning. Tonight’s is a mere 58%. It’ll be fun to see how these change over the course of the season as the systems learn more about Paxton/Erasmoooo. Right now, they’re probably underrating them.
Willie Bloomquist makes his first start, giving Seager a night off. I’m curious to see how Seager holds up with increased rest this year.
Bob Dutton points out that Joe Beimel’s pick-off in last night’s game was called from the bench. Whether it was McClendon or the bench coach, nice call.
Carlos Triunfel is now the property of the LA Dodgers org.
* I said a VERY POOR MAN’s Kuma, ok?
2014 High Desert Mavericks Preview
Hello and welcome back to the second installment of oh crap I’m only halfway finished. Among tangential meanderings in this round, games common to carnivals and fairs, pitchers of limited archetypes, forces of nature, Latin American magical realism, the Orestia, hipsters, people’s nicknames not making any danged sense, the Cartesian coordinate system, and bloodlines. What follows also contains reference to at least one Jabari. Go ahead and guess which. I’m sure you’ll be pleasantly surprised.
The Mavs look this year like a team that could threaten some serious offense, which seems like it could go without saying but between the core of the infield, the starting catcher, and the mish-mash of potential and results that you have in the outfield, I’m guessing some silly numbers are ahead of us. On both sides. I like two of the starters all right but can acknowledge that they themselves might have issues and the rest of the rotation may fare no better. Likewise, a few names to like into bullpen and a whole lot of question marks and repeaters. Battleship Baseball, set sail!
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Who’s the Best Shortstop in the American League Right Now?
Not long after Brad Miller’s second HR cleared the fence in Anaheim, and a day or so after Toronto SS Jose Reyes’ latest injury, USSM/Fangraphs leader/strongman took to twitter to pose the following question:
With Jose Reyes on the DL, Brad Miller might very well be the best SS in the AL right now.
— David Cameron (@DCameronFG) April 2, 2014
Reactions poured in, and you can generally put them in to three buckets. The first, which we’ll call Sox Fans, points to Xander Bogaerts and his tools – including his very good walk rate – as the best. The second, the forecasters, argue for Elvis Andrus, as he’s got the superior projection by Steamer and ZiPS. The third, M’s fans, argue that Brad Miller is the cream of the Reyes-less crop. It’s a fun question, as we’ve been debating seemingly-hypothetical-but-painfully-real things like how bad a player’s offense could be while remaining deserving of a starting job. To go from that to “best” without modifiers is pretty amazing, and it may be that I’m overrating Miller’s present production BECAUSE I’ve watched way more late-career Jack Wilson/Brendan Ryan than anyone should endure.
But…this is a really interesting question, because it highlights the various component skills that each of these guys possess. They’re really three different solution to the problem of the bigleague shortstop. Andrus is the glove guy whose offense is well above the Wilson/Ryan floor. He’s durable, fairly consistent, and adds value on the basepaths as well. He’s got very little power, but makes a lot of contact and has a surprisingly solid walk rate given his lack of pop. Bogaerts has an above-average walk rate AND legitimate power (for a middle infielder), and his ability to hit for average has improved as he’s moved up the ladder. A righty, he didn’t show extreme platoon splits in the minors (he actually ran reverse splits), and can take advantage of the Green Monster at Fenway. Many expect him to add power as he ages (he’s the youngest of the trio by three full years), though some question whether he’ll stick at SS long term. Miller is the guy with the least amount of prospect hype, coming out of Clemson as a very good-but-flawed hitter, and having some questions about his defense along the way. Thus, while Andrus and Bogaerts were easy top-5 org prospects before breaking into the majors around 20-21, Miller ranked in the back half of the top 10 for the M’s (or didn’t make it at all). His gaudy MiLB lines were driven, in part, by an incredible BABIP – something he didn’t bring with him when he debuted with the M’s last year. His minors slugging percentages were driven by his high BABIP/average, and that’s probably why the projection systems are all over the map on his power numbers.
If you think Andrus is the best, you’re saying he can make up over 10-15 full runs on defense, and that his offense will regress towards his career averages – particularly his 2B/3B-driven ‘power.’ You may also implicitly doubt that Bogaerts is ready to make the leap to an above-league-average *hitter* at age 21. Similarly, you might doubt that Miller will show enough pop, and that the AL West’s managers can attack him with lefty specialists and a flurry of left-handed starters. You might conclude by saying that it’s relevant that there is absolutely no chance that Andrus moves off of SS – that the fact that Bogaerts debuted as a 3B and Miller had to fight off Nick Franklin show that the defensive gulf is real, and that it’s bigger than most fans think.
If you think Bogaerts is the best, you think the offensive gap between the 21-year old and Andrus is much, much larger than heavily-regressed stats would indicate, and that even a 1-WAR gap on defense alone won’t matter unless Andrus hits significantly better than he did last year. His age/speed help him close the gap with Andrus on the basepaths and in the field, and his loud tools mean that his up-side blows Andrus’ out of the water; that is, that if he Bogaerts hits his 60th-70th percentile projection, any comparison with Andrus becomes laughable. You might also point out that Josh Rutledge, pretty much exactly the same age as Miller and the possessor of a 1/2 season line from 2012 that looks near identical to Miller’s 2013 crashed and burned for Colorado last year, and is now back in the minors. On a per-plate appearance or per-game basis, Bogaerts is the best mix of current ability and breakout potential (and it doesn’t hurt that he’s a perfect fit for his part).
For the Millerians, the age differential is actually a point in Miller’s favor – with Miller, there’s nothing to project or dream on, and his present ability sets him apart. Miller’s line, and his MiLB BABIP, are signs of a preternatural ability to hit the ball hard. Bogaerts’ hit tool is “developing” and may surpass Miller’s one day when you add in strikeouts/whiffs, but Miller has a better shot at a .280 average – and this partially mitigates Bogaerts’ excellent plate discipline. Moreover, the projection systems are serially underrating Miller’s power. Miller posted a .150 ISO in over 330 plate appearances last year, then added muscle and a year of age, but many systems out there shows that ISO dropping in his first full year. If it doesn’t, or if it actually goes to .160-.170, he’s going to beat Bogaerts handily. Also, park effects matter, especially as we’re dealing with guys who play in Arlington/Boston versus one who toils in Safeco’s marine layer. Once you park adjust and normalize playing time projections, Andrus fades a bit. Bogaerts may be better in 2-5 years (though he might not!), but right now, it’s Miller time.
As you can probably tell, I just love that this is a question to swirl around in my mind. As with the Cano contract, I’m just reveling in having new, or different tough questions after so many years of repetitive and annoying questions. Miller snuck up on the baseball world, frankly, and at some point, it’ll be worth examining how and why – so we can maximize our chance of nabbing an elite player outside of the first round again. But right now, I’m just going to continue wondering if Brad Miller is the best SS in the AL, and what his ultimate ceiling could be.
(If I had to pick, I’d take Miller, though that comes with some pretty obvious bias. I love Bogaerts, but I think a K% of 22-27% would be pretty damaging to his case. He may have to be better than his 50% projection. That said, he’s absolutely incredible, and as we’ve seen with Machado, Tulo, Trout, Harper, etc., there really isn’t a learning curve for great players.)
2014 Clinton Lumberkings Preview
Hello and welcome back to a sometimes-annual round of previews concerning the full-season Mariners minor league affiliates. For those unfamiliar with the process, I take the opening day roster of each team and try to write as much as seems relevant about each player and the result usually weighs in at a few thousand words despite my best efforts to curb it. The spectrum tends to run from “informative” to “inane”, and so in addition to the topic at hand, I’ve drifted into early 2000s Mariners pitching prospects, architecture, aphorisms, surnames, etymology (real and pseudo), Pokémon, theory, actors with iconic mustaches, and fictional spies. This all sounds considerably more interesting than the results, but as I’ve said before with regard to my baseball writing in contrast to my other writing, it trends extemporaneous and could easily be damned by Capote as typing and not writing at all.
To give the more distant overhead perspective on things, the rotation has a range of undersung to unknown, the bullpen has a few names to file away but isn’t especially inspiring, the infield is comprised mostly of mid-range guys who are either trying to make or re-establish a reputation, and the star power seems to be at the outfield corners. The catching crew is elided in part due to my own lack of interest. “Top-heavy” seems the most apt descriptor for this squad because the players I’m interested in here, I’m really invested in, and those that I’m not, it’s part lack of familiarity and part lack of perceived impact talent. If things break in the right direction on the infield and their offense, it could be a rather competitive team. If not, not. But bear in mind that these tend to be skewed by my own interests as an observer, and there have been teams that I looked at with a “meh” and went on to go deep into the playoffs. It all depends on what your rooting interests are.
All the rosters were released yesterday afternoon, but I’m still typing away like a maniac so as to excuse myself from other duties. The other three are forthcoming.