Mariners Travel to Much Tougher Opponent
| MARINERS (50-55) | ΔMs | RED SOX (63-44) | EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA*) | 18.6 (9th) | 2.2 | 30.7 (6th) | Red Sox |
| FIELDING (RBBIP) | -24.5 (27th) | -1.3 | 19.0 (6th) | Red Sox |
| ROTATION (xRA) | 16.0 (8th) | 7.4 | 20.3 (6th) | Red Sox |
| BULLPEN (xRA) | -2.6 (20th) | -2.8 | 2.5 (14th) | Red Sox |
| OVERALL (RAA) | 7.6 (11th) | 5.7 | 72.5 (6th) | RED SOX |
A split of the home series against the Twins — especially after the Mariners beat them down in the first game — is not what I hoped for out of that series. No longer having much insight or confidence into what makes the upper management (the people above Zduriencik) tick, my outlook shifts more and more toward the near-term than the long-term.
Perhaps the Mariners dropping many more games in what is pretty surely already a lost season will result in a regime change in the front office. And perhaps that could even be a positive development. I don’t know, obviously and I find myself starting to not care much either. I sort of just expect the Mariners to always be mediocre. I’m willing and waiting to be surprised by a sustainable winner and in the meantime, wins are more fun to occasionally watch than losses, so come on winning.
Koji Uehara is amazing you guys. Maybe I’ve successfully avoided the “east coast media” tongue bathing, but I feel he’s under appreciated for how awesome he’s been in the Majors and he’s having one of, if not his, best season this year.
Speaking of relief pitchers, the Angels traded Scott Downs for a minor leaguer. Scott Downs wasn’t really good, but he was used in decently high leverage situations by the Angels. That they didn’t attempt to get anything of immediate value in return probably means they’re actualizing that 2013 is a lost season for them. Don’t worry, fellas, only eight more Albert Pujols seasons to go!
Mike Morse returns and might end up pushing playing time away from Michael Saunders and/or Dustin Ackley. Nope, I take it back. I still do care about the long term because just typing that sentence irritated me. By the way, Jaso’s OBP is near .400 in more PAs than Morse has. S’ok though, because the Mariners sure are loaded at catcher and have no need for players under club control beyond this stellar 2013 season.
Stats and breakdowns below.
The Kyle Blanks Opinion Test
Shortly after the Jack Zduriencik front office took over the Mariners, they were pretty universally beloved. I remember stories that Zduriencik was getting recognized on the street, so we’re going beyond even just blogosphere adoration. Since then, opinions have changed. Some people still love the executives in charge, but some other people are frustrated, and still others yet are worse. Some remain rosy; some feel that old familiar cynicism. At least, no longer does it feel so clear that these are the right people to guide the Mariners to where we want them to be. That’s something I can imagine debating, whereas a few years ago I felt all kinds of certain. It seems to me the front office has taken a turn.
How is it that you feel about the front office? You, specifically you, the individual reader. Do you still feel generally positive about things, or are you beyond ready to see someone else assume complete authority? To help you answer this question, I’ve devised the Kyle Blanks Opinion Test. Consider the following rumor tweet, from the absolutely delightful Ken Rosenthal:
#Mariners had top-level scout on #Padres last week, per @jonmorosi. Reason, according to a source: M’s looking for offense and …
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 28, 2013
… have interest in #Padres OF/1B Kyle Blanks. The problem: Blanks is not close to returning from tendinitis in both Achilles. #Mariners
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 28, 2013
Which is closer to your feelings on the subject?
(1) Good for the Mariners, targeting a potentially undervalued player who’s hit well in the minors and who possesses a bunch of power. Injuries might have held back Blanks’ development and he could conceivably fill a variety of roles.
(2) Typical Mariners, blinded by power despite everything else. Blanks can’t stay healthy, he doesn’t really walk, he doesn’t really make contact, and he’s hardly known for his mobility. Just more focus on dingers instead of value.
If your answer is (1), you are still mostly a fan of the Zduriencik front office. It’s not that you think of it as flawless, but you can take the bad so long as you get the good. If your answer is (2), you are probably wondering right now about other potential GM candidates. You’re worried that a strong second half might save Zduriencik’s job, when what you really want is other people making decisions. You don’t trust these people anymore.
Thank you for taking the Kyle Blanks Opinion Test, and I hope that you’ve learned something about yourself. As an alternative to the Kyle Blanks Opinion Test, if you want to know how you personally feel about the Mariners’ front office these days, you could just think about that question directly.
Oh Hey There I’m James Paxton Look At Me
Lots of people love the minor leagues, which is weird, but which isn’t ultimately all that much weirder than loving the major leagues. And here’s maybe the neatest thing about having a minor-league system: unless your system is the biggest unfortunate catastrophe since every day Jeff Dunham spends alive on this planet, at any point someone somewhere is going to be excelling. There are just too many teams and too many young players for everybody to disappoint at once, and when one prospect is on fire, it’s easy enough to focus on him while downplaying the negative performances of all the rest. If, you know, that’s what’s happening. There’s always going to be a guy who seems to be breaking through, which is always exciting, and right now that potential breakthrough player appears to be James Paxton.
You remember Paxton. Pitching prospect. Mariners. Somewhere between 20 and 40 years old. Throws with his arm. Paxton didn’t get the draft position of Danny Hultzen, and he’s long been surpassed by Taijuan Walker in terms of prospect hype. Paxton has probably been talked about the least of the Big Three, and for a while he was plagued by control concerns. This year he’s been pitching in Tacoma and his ERA’s north of 4. He dropped off the MLB.com midseason list of the top 100 prospects, but allow me to present to you select statistics from Paxton’s most recent seven starts:
- 46.2 innings
- 14 runs
- 4.4% walks
- 24% strikeouts
- 66% strikes
- 74% contact
Most notable, to me, is the strike rate, as only one of three Paxton pitches has gone for a ball. Last year, he barely threw 61% strikes. The year before, the same story. Before this most recent stretch, Paxton’s 2013 strike rate was 60%, and in his last turn he threw 70 strikes out of 96 pitches. Going by rolling five-start averages, Paxton’s at his strike rate season peak. To make this all simple and non-numerical: used to be, Paxton didn’t throw enough strikes, but for several weeks he’s been throwing more than enough strikes.
Paxton has seven starts this year in which he didn’t even throw strikes with three-fifths of his pitches, but the most recent one was on June 17. His manager has talked about his improvement from April and May, and twice this month Paxton’s thrown a complete game. What none of this is is a guarantee that Paxton has figured out how to hit his spots. We’re using strike rate as a proxy for location, and Paxton’s been facing some bad hitters, probably. And this is a hand-selected sample of starts that we’re looking at. But James Paxton is coming on strong, by doing the thing he didn’t do enough of before. Statistically, he’s surging.
Paxton has his fastball, and he has his curveball. People have long lamented that his changeup isn’t good enough, but you can be a starter with a fastball and a curveball. Shelby Miller is one such starter. Erik Bedard is another such starter, one to whom Paxton has drawn plenty of comparisons. Lots of people anticipate that Paxton will end up in a bullpen, because he’s too much like Bedard, but then Bedard has long been a quality starter when he’s been healthy enough to pitch. It’s brutally difficult for a prospect to shed a reputation once a reputation develops, and Paxton’s reputation was one of inefficiency and inconsistency. He might now be making progress, but it won’t be that easy for him to win mass trust. People need a lot of convincing to change their minds.
James Paxton is healthy and starting and throwing strikes and 24. He’s not an outstanding prospect, but he’s a good prospect who might still figure into the long-term rotation plans. Though he’s not on the 40-man roster, room could be made if the team wanted him to get a cup of coffee down the stretch, and failing that, Paxton could be an option next spring if he’s still here and if he’s still healthy and if he continues to find the zone. Strikes have been the thing, and Paxton’s been throwing them. That’s some kind of development, and it might not be minor.
Morse Returns, Bay Goes Away
As expected, the Mariners activated Michael Morse from the DL today, and he’ll join the team in Boston for the series with the Red Sox. To make room for him on the roster, Jason Bay was designated for assignment.
This wasn’t too terribly hard to see coming. Bay was moderately decent for a few weeks at the beginning of the season, but has been awful the last few weeks, and had basically played himself out of the OF rotation. It was pretty telling that Endy Chavez pinch hit for him last week. Endy Chavez. When a washed up speed-and-defense center fielder pinch hits for you, you’re done.
Bay’s final line as a Mariner: .204/.298/.393, .305 wOBA, 92 wRC+, -0.2 WAR. He was basically a replacement level scrub, which is what all the pre-season forecasts projected him to be before the season began. Despite all the talk about his health and his career resurgence and his good spring training, Jason Bay was the 34-year-old version of Jason Bay.
It will be interesting to see how much time Morse gets in the outfield. You’d hope that Ackley and Saunders will be given the final two months of the season to make an impression and play themselves into the 2014 plans, which would only leave one spot and some extra time for Ibanez and Morse to share. But, even with Ibanez’s recent regression to planet earth, it’s still hard for me to imagine that he’s going to get relegated back to a reserve role. And, given how enamored the organization is with Morse’s skillset, it’s hard for me to imagine Morse not being in the line-up when he’s healthy.
So, don’t be too shocked if Ackley and Saunders end up sharing time in center field sooner than later, especially if Ackley keeps not hitting. The Mariners aren’t in a playoff race, but they’re clearly still prioritizing the present over the future, and Dustin Ackley isn’t a very good player right now, given that he’s still learning to play the outfield. With his lack of power and minus defense, he’s hurting the team, and if the Mariners are committed to this finish-at-.500-so-we-can-say-I-told-you-so plan, Ackley’s not going to stay in the line-up if he’s not producing.
In the grand scheme of things, though, none of this really matters that much. Ackley’s likely trade bait at some point, as he’s more valuable at second base than he is in the outfield, and Saunders looks more like a fourth outfielder than a starter on a winning team. Ibanez and Morse aren’t part of any future here. Endy Chavez shouldn’t even be part of the present. The Mariners need an entirely new outfield next year, so rearranging the ones they have now isn’t likely to have a huge long term impact.
Game 105, Twins at Mariners
Erasmo Ramirez vs. Kyle Gibson, 1:10 pm
Sorry about yesterday’s unannounced day off – glad it worked out on a game that 1) wasn’t televised and 2) featured one of the worst offensive performances of the year. Kind of felt like a lot of took yesterday off.
The M’s look to get a split in the series with Erasmo Ramirez facing off against the Twins’ top pitching prospect coming into 2013, Kyle Gibson. Gibson’s a projectable 6’6″ righty with a hard sinker thrown at around 93-94mph. He pairs this with a slider at 85-86 and a change-up vs. lefties that comes in at the same speed as the slider. Coming up through the minors, the college-trained Gibson (U. of Missouri) posted only so-so strikeout rates and RAs, giving rise to some concerns that he couldn’t miss bats at higher levels despite above-average velocity and command of two other pitches. Beyond the raw stats, he had a string of serious arm injuries as well – a stress fracture during college and then Tommy John surgery in 2011. He returned near the end of the 2012 season, and then played in the Arizona Fall League (for the same team as the M’s prospects James Paxton and Nick Franklin). Any concern that he’d left a few MPH on the operating table were quickly erased, as he came out throwing FBs by some good hitters and getting tons of grounders. He carried that impressive stint into 2013 as well, posting a better FIP in AAA than he had in AA.
It’s probably not a big surprise that a sinker/slider pitcher in the Twins organization is not going to be challenging any strikeout records. When he’s on, he uses the sinker to get grounders, though he can get plenty of strikeouts to righties with his slider. The problem is that his change isn’t really a swing-and-miss pitch, and the sinker’s got larger platoon splits than a four-seam fastball. Thus far, he’s given up 8 free passes to lefties against just 3 strikeouts (negligble sample size alert). In the minors, he had similar issues, with a K rate far, far greater against righties. His overall splits don’t look all that extreme, however, because of either an odd fluke or a problem with hanging sliders: Since 2011, at all levels, he’s given up 18 home runs to right-handed batters against just 2 to lefties. Again, he can’t strike lefties out, and he has no problem getting righties to swing and miss, but when they DO make contact, righties have occasionally hit it a long way. Again, this is a small sample including minor league data, so it’s not like Gibson is conclusively “good” at limiting HRs to lefties, but it’s an interesting/counterintuitive stat.
Erasmo Ramirez was better in his last start against Cleveland, but he’s still not back to his 2012 form. The biggest culprit thus far has been his change-up, a pitch that looked dominant at times in 2012 and has looked like a work-in-progress this season. In 2012, he gave up one HR on his change in 187 pitches, and batters missed on nearly 50% of their swings on the pitch. They still miss quite a few (~40% of swings), but batters have hit two HRs out of 55 HRs, and he’s missed the zone more frequently (from 33% balls in 2012 to 51% this year). I think we all assumed *some* amount of regression from a pitch that looked like a cheat code last year, but I bet his struggles this year have a lot to do with his injuries and the time off he spent waiting for the all-clear on his elbow. I’m hoping we see the healthy, effective version of Erasmo in September.
1: Miller, SS
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, 1B
5: Ibanez, DH
6: Saunders, LF
7: Chavez, RF
8: Ackley, CF
9: Blanco, C
SP: Erasmo Ramirez
I’m guessing Erasmo Ramirez knows that fellow Nicaraguan pitcher Dennis Martinez pitched a perfect game on this date in 1991. El Presidente’s Expos beat the Dodgers 2-0 at Chavez Ravine.
James Paxton continued his fine run of form last night, but took the hard-luck loss as Tacoma lost to Reno, 1-0. It was Paxton’s second CG of the year. Paxton’s looked lost for most of the year, combining wildness with a lack of stamina, but he certainly seems to have figured something out. He’s averaged 7IP in July, and has 27Ks to just 6 BBs in the month.
Brandon Maurer was recalled in exchange for Hector Noesi. Maurer’s struggled in AAA, but Hector Noesi’s struggled more, so…
Today’s MiLB starters include Victor Sanchez for Clinton, Eddie Campbell for Pulaski, and Andrew Carraway for Tacoma.
An Interview With The Hamate Bone
Interviewer: Hello, please sit down.
Hamate bone: sup douche
Interviewer: Thank you for taking a few minutes.
Hamate bone: thank you for not being even more of a douche
Interviewer: So, first things first.
Interviewer: What is it, exactly, that you…
Interviewer: …do?
Hamate bone: break
Interviewer: Pardon?
Hamate bone: break
Interviewer:
Hamate bone: we break
Interviewer: Is there anything else? Any function?
Hamate bone: naw
Hamate bone: breakin
Interviewer: Why?
Interviewer: I mean, what’s the point?
Hamate bone: one of us breaks, hitter don’t hit
Interviewer: Right, exactly. Players get hurt.
Hamate bone: hurt players aren’t players
Interviewer: So you break on purpose? To injure hitters?
Hamate bone: thank you for joining us
Interviewer: Why on earth…?
Hamate bone: hate baseball
Interviewer: Hate baseball?
Hamate bone: we hate baseball
Interviewer: And this is how you make your statement?
Hamate bone: not enough people playing jacks
Interviewer:
Hamate bone:
Interviewer: But in surgery, you just get removed.
Hamate bone: yes
Interviewer: And there are only two of you, per player.
Hamate bone: yes
Interviewer: You break, and then you’re usually just gone.
Interviewer: Forever.
Hamate bone: yes
Interviewer: And somehow this is worth it?
Hamate bone: martyrdom dude
Interviewer: What’s your cause?
Hamate bone: kill baseball
Interviewer: You understand that is literally impossible for you to accomplish.
Hamate bone: jacks!!
Interviewer: All you are is an annoyance.
Hamate bone: we’re all dedicated
Interviewer: You get removed. You disappear.
Hamate bone: you can take us out, but you can’t break out spirit
Interviewer: You know, you guys really suck.
Hamate bone: mission accomplished
Interviewer: Mission not accomplished! There’s still baseball!
Interviewer: There’s always still baseball! You’re powerless!
Hamate bone: you have a favorite hitter?
Interviewer: Yes, of course.
Hamate bone: he still got hamate bones?
Interviewer: As far as I know.
Hamate bone: huh
Interviewer:
Interviewer: Don’t-
Door: /knock
Door: /opens
Ulnar collateral ligament: sup douche
Hamate bone: wrong room
Ulnar collateral ligament: oh sorry
Game 103, Twins at Mariners
King Felix vs. Scott Diamond, 7:10pm
Happy Felix Day! The King returns to bask in the adoration of his subjects, and his royal will (and the savvy importing of a new middle infield) has his Mariners playing legitimately good baseball. No longer do we have to marvel at Felix, then suffer through painful half-innings of Brendan Ryan popping up, basically every catcher ever striking out, and Franklin Gutierrez grimacing and holding something. I’d say “I could get used to this,” but to this point, I haven’t. Jeff mentioned it on twitter, and I have to concur: feeling happy about the Mariners, not Felix, but the entirety of the team, feels alien and at some level uncomfortable. I’m getting there, because this team is suddenly fun to watch, but….years and years of conditioning don’t just drop away because Brad Miller hit some doubles.
Yesterday I mentioned that while Scott Diamond was a righty, he wasn’t a perfect match-up in the vein of Bud Norris, a guy with huge platoon splits against lefties. In Scott Diamond, the M’s have a sneaky good match-up. Diamond is a lefty, who throws a fastball and a curve, with the occasional change he’ll throw to the single batter in the line-up who bats righty. The FB’s right at about 90mph, but his curve’s something of an oddity, as it’s thrown at 82. Indeed, everything about Diamond’s curve looks off – it’s thrown at a velocity that’d be about two standard deviations from the 2010 average. In large part because of this, its vertical movement is similarly unusual, and it exhibits virtually no horizontal movement at all, especially when compared to his four-seam fastball. By pitch fx, it doesn’t look like a curve ball at all. Does the novelty trouble batters? No, not particularly. In his brief career, he’s given up 12 HRs on it and batters are slugging .412 – on a pitch that he uses primarily when he’s ahead or has two strikes.
More than an oddly ineffective curveball, Diamond’s biggest problem has been an inability to get lefty hitters out. With a straight fastball and a curve that doesn’t, er, *curve*, he doesn’t really have a weapon that breaks away from them, like a slider or, you know, a normal curve ball. The results aren’t pretty: again, the “career” sample is tiny, but lefties are hitting .311/.356/.538 against him. This season, they’re slugging .646. This is not a good match-up for Mr. Diamond. Especially with a sample this small, we should regress these observed splits, and given his short career, that ameliorates these huge gaps. But given his arsenal and the way he uses it, I think Diamond’s always going to have problems against lefties. OPS over 1.000? Slugging .650? No, but problems nonetheless. Sadly, the M’s may not have been aware, and stacked the line-up with as many RHBs as possible. This isn’t the end of the world, as Diamond isn’t great against anyone, and regressed splits, etc. etc. but that still doesn’t address the drop off in batting ability between Brad Miller and Brendan Ryan.
I mentioned that Kevin Correia was the walking embodiment of the Twins’ pitching philosophy, but Diamond isn’t far off. Correia has the advantage of being someone the Twins signed to a multi-year free agent contract, which illustrates just how committed the Twins are. Diamond was picked up in the Rule 5 draft out of the Atlanta organization. The Canadian lefty opened some eyes last year with an ERA and a FIP under 4 for a last-place Twins team, but looking at his entire career, it’s looking a lot like an outlier. Diamond gets a good number of ground balls by relentlessly targeting the bottom of the strike zone. His fastball’s movement shouldn’t produce grounders, but his location makes up for this. Grounders plus essentially no walks is a good starting point for a pitcher, but it’s just a starting point – Diamond hasn’t yet developed an out pitch to help him get strikeouts, and he doesn’t need to miss his location by much for batters to start driving balls. 2012 was a career best (including the minors) for Diamond’s walk rate, and he also generated more GBs than you’d expect given his minor league rates. His HR/FB ratio was normal, but few walks and few fly balls of any kind made his overall stats look pretty good.
In 2013, his walk rate’s crept up a bit while his K% is down in Blake Beavanland. A drop in GB% AND K% means he’s giving up more fly balls, and an uptick in HR/FB really isn’t necessary, and is just sort of piling on. Add it up, and he’s been below replacement level by both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs. No Ks and a lot of HRs has Blake Beavan pitching for Tacoma, but the Twins keep running Diamond out there, as their other option is Liam Hendriks – essentially the same guy, just without the ground balls (who’s not exactly tearing up AAA right now). This should’ve been as good a match-up, on paper, as the Mariners would see this season, and the M’s have played the Astros 12 times. Unfortunately, this is a standard platoon split line-up which helps Diamond greatly. Well, that and Mike Zunino’s injury (see below).
1: Bay, RF
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Ibanez, LF
4: Morales, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Ackley, CF
8: Ryan, SS
9: Blanco, C
SP: King Felix
The big story of the day is that Mike Zunino’s been placed on the 15-day DL with a broken hamate bone. He was hit on a foul ball last night in the same spot he was hit a few games ago. Not sure if he had a small fracture and played through it or if the two knocks were just a coincidence. Ryan Divish has a post about the injury here. The M’s appear to have signed Humberto Quintero, who was DFA’d by Philadelphia two days ago, to take Zunino’s spot on the active roster. Helpfully, there’s an open 40-man spot available. If Jesus Sucre, Brandon Bantz and Humberto Quintero all play C for the M’s in a single year…I wish I had a clever punchline for something so improbable. Gotta sting for Jason Jaramillo, though. He was already in the org and three years younger, but Quintero’s considerable edge in big league experience was probably the difference-maker. (Hat tip to Ryan Divish for the Quintero news)
I missed yesterday’s satisfying win over Minnesota, as I went to see the Rainiers. They were green uniforms for a Sounders promotion, and perhaps we can blame the unfamiliar duds for Taijuan Walker’s subpar performance. He gave up 5R in 5IP, walking 3 while striking out 8. He struggled, particularly in a terrible 4th inning in which he gave up 4 runs, but it was encouraging all the same. He was nearly unhittable through three, mixing his excellent mid-90s FB with a very occasional curve and occasional cutter. The problem was FB command, and it showed up early, but he just had too much talent for it to matter the first time through. He went to three-ball counts on 3 of the first 6 hitters, and while none of them walked, it was running his pitch count up *and* getting him a little miffed at the home plate umpire. From my vantage point (not directly behind HP; parallax alert) the calls looked OK. It was a small zone, but I don’t think he was straight up blowing calls the way the ump in his first AAA start was. Still, if the zone was a tiny bit bigger, the game may have turned out quite differently. In the 4th, batters seeing him for the second time laid off early FBs and either knocked sharp singles when ahead in the count or waited for the curve and hit line drives on that. Not sure if the sequencing was too obvious or if he had a “tell” in his delivery, but several Tucson batters looked like they knew when a curve was coming. The first batter to do anything off of Walker was ex-Rainier Mike Wilson, who blasted a HR on a curve ball for the Padres first hit. The Rainiers stuck around thanks to Rich Poythress and Jason Jaramillo and won the game in the 10th on Poythress’ walk-off HR, his second HR of the game.
I just couldn’t stop myself from rechecking my camera and blinking deliberately every few minutes. Taijuan Walker is wearing green, and Mike Wilson is wearing grey. Up is left, down is itchy, dogs and prawns tweeting together. Surreal.
The M’s gave Michael Morse the start in RF for Tacoma, and had him play 9 innings for the first time on his rehab (Carlos Peguero replaced him for extras). Unfortunately, it wasn’t a great night at the plate for Morse. Tucson lefty Robbie Erlin has a good change and hides the ball a little bit by pivoting over his front foot, which comes down on the 1b side of the center line. For whatever reason, Morse obviously wasn’t seeing the ball at all, and he struck out swinging all three times he faced Erlin. In his first two PAs, he whiffed six times – three swinging strikes per K. He mixed in a foul ball the third time, however. Somewhat oddly, those were the only three strikeouts Erlin had in the game.
Blake Beavan pitches for the Rainiers tonight as they open a series in Reno. He’ll face Brandon McCarthy, who’s rehabbing with the Aces before rejoining the D-Backs. Anthony Vasquez leads Jackson against Chattanooga, and Tyler Pike starts for Clinton against ex-affiliate Wisconsin.
Game 102, Twins at Mariners
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Kevin Correia, 7:10pm
The Twins look terrible right now, and it’s hard to imagine that it was just a few years ago that they won 94 games and the AL Central title. Injuries have played a big role in their collapse, but as Matthew points out, so too has their fondness for pitch-to-contact mediocrities in the rotation. Their staff has a combined K/9 from 2011-2013 of 5.92, far and away the lowest in baseball (Baltimore’s #29, at 6.79). Perhaps not surprisingly, they’re near the bottom in pitcher WAR too, and if you restrict it just to starters, they move even closer to the bottom. This is an organizational philosophy, and it’s really hard to find any evidence that it’s working. It’s as if Twins management is standing athwart this long-running trend towards increasing K% yelling, “Stop.”
Kevin Correia is perhaps the walking, breathing, pitching embodiment of this philosophy, a pitch-to-contact journeyman with a 91mph fastball and a cutter he throws more than any other pitch. And he was signed as a free agent this offseason to a two-year, $10m contract, more guaranteed money than Joe Saunders signed for, and a contract that makes him one of the highest paid Twinkies. Correia isn’t terrible (he was an All-Star in 2009! Whether that says more about Correia or the All-Star game says a lot about you), but he’s evidence that it’s not clear that the Twins are saving any money by pursuing this strategy. Sure, the highest paid pitchers – the Verlanders and the Felixes and the Kershaws – miss bats and strike people out. But it’s not clear why they found Correia’s brand of mediocrity more enticing than one of their home-grown pitch-to-contacters, and it’s not clear what the Twins (who lost nearly 100 games in 2012 and didn’t figure to contend in 2013) thought they were getting for their money.
Home runs are still plentiful, so perhaps the Twins have been trying to figure out how to replicate the bizarre HR/FB “skills” of guys like Matt Cain. If so, then Correia wouldn’t seem to fit the bill. He’s been fairly consistent over his career; he gives up slightly more HRs than average, as one would expect for a pitch-to-contact guy without Yoervis Medina’s walk rate. And again, that makes him fairly normal for the twins: Nick Blackburn always had a HR/9 over 1, Kevin Slowey’s HR-mania nearly knocked him out of the big leagues*, etc. Their starters have averaged 1.22 HR/9 since 2011, 3rd most in the majors. I’m a simple guy, so maybe there’s a long-term strategy at play that drive-by analysts like me can’t discern. With that said, I have no idea what the Twins think they’re buying.
Correia’s got essentially even platoon splits in 2013 and over his long-ish career, which is too bad as he faces a lefty-loaded line-up tonight. But those splits are even solely because Correia gives up so many HRs to righties. It’s not like he’s got a great change-up to neutralize lefties, he’s just an equal-opportunity offender. He put his slider on the shelf late in 2010, and since 2011 has thrown over 30% cutters. It’s thrown at around 88-89 mph, and it functions like a fastball in many ways. Initially, the new look may have disrupted some hitters, who may have become used to his more traditional slider. Since then though, hitters have been doing steadily more damage against it. He’ll throw some change-ups as well, and he also has a curve ball. The cutter’s still somewhat effective to lefties, but when you factor in that he throws it when he’s ahead in the count, it begins to look as middle of the road as everything else about Kevin Correia. Righties destroy his cutter, so Mike Zunino is in a pretty good match-up despite the righty-righty aspect of it. Lefties feast on his fastballs, and also walk more often, so while this isn’t quite as good a match-up as, say, Bud Norris, this looks promising for the M’s.
1: Miller, SS
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Ibanez, LF
4: Morales, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Saunders, RF
8: Zunino, C
9: Ackley, CF
SP: Iwakuma
Word on Eric Wedge’s mysterious illness is that he suffered a mild stroke. While the modifier “mild” is somewhat encouraging, that’s a serious issue for a young man (Eric Wedge is just 45). Anything in the brain should be treated cautiously, and while I’m glad the M’s think he’ll be back soon, I’m also glad that he’s going to be on bed rest at home for a while. It’s just the Twins, Wedge – Robby’s got this for a while. Again, best wishes for a complete recovery as soon as possible.
Taijuan Walker leads the Tacoma Rainiers against Tucson tonight at Cheney, while Lars Huijer starts at home for Everett. Good night to check out a ballgame in the Puget Sound region. It’s Sounders night at Cheney, with local boy Lamar Neagle throwing out the first pitch and signing autographs.
* Since Slowey now toils for the Miami Marlins, some may argue that it has.
Mariners Have Chance to Near .500
| MARINERS (48-53) | ΔMs | TWINS (43-55) | EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA*) | 16.4 (11th) | -0.2 | -23.1 (23rd) | Mariners |
| FIELDING (RBBIP) | -23.2 (25th) | -1.1 | -20.7 (24th) | Twins |
| ROTATION (xRA) | 8.6 (12th) | -1.8 | -45.4 (29th) | Mariners |
| BULLPEN (xRA) | 0.2 (17th) | -1.6 | 5.3 (11th) | Twins |
| OVERALL (RAA) | 1.9 (12th) | -4.8 | -83.9 (29th) | MARINERS |
With a four-game set against the quite awful Twins, the Mariners could climb even further toward that break even .500 mark. Even though the playoffs are a miracle away, it’s still enjoyable to have the team winning more than losing and not feeling like every deficit is insurmountable, every opponent a potential powerhouse.
The Twins rotation is terrible. Their highest individual strikeout rate is 14%, which is in the Joe Saunders and Blake Beavan territory. Collectively, their 12% strikeout rate is the lowest in the majors by over three points.
That’s long been the stereotype for Twins pitchers, but before they’d make up for that somewhat by not walking hitters. Now, their walk rate is only middle of the pack, giving them baseball’s worst K to BB ratio among starting rotations.
The Mariners, by contrast, have baseball’s fourth best K to BB ratio among starters.
Game 101, Indians at Mariners
Joe Saunders vs. Scott Kazmir, 12:40pm
Early game today as the Indians continue to try to figure out the suddenly invincible M’s. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a game turn on a base running error like Drew Stubbs’ last night. They looked certain to tie the game, at minimum, against a struggling Tom Wilhelmsen, but then Stubbs decided to make that kamikaze dash for home.
Today’s game features Scott Kazmir, perhaps the feel good story of the spring, and I suppose the feel-good story of the summer now that Jeremy Bonderman got DFA’d. It’s just stunning to see how much Kazmir looks like, well, “classic” Scott Kazmir. His release point’s the same, the pitch mix is essentially the same (though he’s got a new curve), and his velocity’s better than it was in 2008. He’s striking people out again, and if his walks are a bit high, well, they always used to be back when he was good. On the other hand, the problems he had back in 2008 are still the same problems he has now.
Now, I said the problems he had in *2008*. His problems from 2009-2012 (all filed under the overarching category of “being a terrible pitcher”) were much, much bigger, and he would happily trade garden variety MLB pitching problems for “I’m-really-letting-down-my-fellow-Sugarland-Skeeters” problems. But even when he was an exciting young talent, Kazmir had big platoon splits and an on-again, off-again home run problem that went with those splits. Elite velocity kept things manageable early on, as he gave up 11 HRs to righties in 2005 out of 648 batters faced. His walk rate improved in 2006 and then he put it all together in 2007, maintaining a decent walk rate and HR rate to righties. All told, he held them .334 wOBA/3.42 FIP, which is great for a fastball/slider pitcher facing opposite-handed batsmen. Then 2008 happened. A low BABIP makes the wOBA look OK, but 22 HRs in 500 batters faced pushed his FIP vs. righties over *5*. He’s always been dominant against lefties, so his results hinge on what righties do. So far in 2013, it’s looking like a repeat of 2008. Like Ubaldo Jimenez and last night’s starter, Zach McAllister, Kazmir keeps the ball down and away from same-handed batters, while trying to go up and away to righties. And like them, he’s got very different GB rates to RHB/LHBs. Given his problems, I’m surprised that he’s employing this strategy, but I’m not a pitching coach. To be fair, when he reaches up and away zones, righties have fared poorly. The problem is when he misses his spots and leaves when up and out over the plate; not surprisingly for a guy without top-flight command, Kazmir’s done this rather often.
Righties have 13 HRs in 276 PAs, and a .374 wOBA. Lefties are still hitting like Brendan Ryan against Kazmir, but righties are hitting like Raul and Yadier Molina. You have to figure Kazmir’s circled this game on his calendar as a potential good match-up. He got knocked around by the M’s back on May 20th, but that line-up was heavily right-handed, with Kelly Shoppach, Jesus Montero, Mike Morse, Brendan Ryan and Robert Andino and Jason Bay. Only one of that group suits up today, and if the M’s are much more left-handed now, they are also not irredeemably awful (Andino AND Montero AND Ryan. Ouch). This is not a great match-up for the new-look Mariners, but I would rather watch the new-look Mariners than see if Robert Andino can slap another single off of Kazmir.
1: Miller, SS
2: Franklin, 2B
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Bay, LF
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Saunders, CF
8: Chavez, LF
9: Blanco, C
SP: Saunders
The M’s are going for their 9th straight win, something they haven’t done since 2003. You may recall they also won 8 in a row in the second half of last season.
Edwin Diaz is the notable pitcher in the system tonight, as he starts for Pulaski in the Appy League against the Princeton Rays.
Ex-top 10 M’s prospect Vinnie Catricala was DFA’d by Oakland today after putting up a .219/.292/.297 in 128 ABs for Midland of the Texas League. Have no idea what happened to the guy who tore through the SL a few years ago, and hope Catricala can get back to that form with someone. Man, that collapse was as thorough as it was quick.
Jack Z mentioned on the radio that he still doesn’t know what happened with M’s skipper Eric Wedge. This is as good a time as any to say that while we’ve all had our issues with Wedge, the pale in significance to a health scare like this. Get well soon, Wedge.
Great stat article from Bill Petti here about when pitchers get strikes called on “Edge” pitches – those on the outer portion of the strike zone. Most interesting, at least to me, was the finding that RHPs get more “Edge” strikes called when facing LHBs. We’ve known about the “left hand strike zone” for a little while, and this is a complimentary but distinct finding. If sabermetrics ruined you, Dustin Ackley, they can also really help you understand why sticking to your own sense of the zone on outside pitches wasn’t working. So, we’ll call it even, right?