Game 4: Mariners at Athletics…maybe
Brandon Maurer vs. AJ Griffin, 12:35pm
Day game on getaway day in the Bay Area, but the rain’s conspiring to either delay or scratch this contest. With the unbalanced schedule, it’s not that hard to fit in a make-up date later on against a divisional rival, so I don’t think they’ll be as desperate to get this one in as they would if Oakland was hosting, say, Minnesota.
If it does happen, the focus will rightly be on RHP Brandon Maurer, who’s set to make his major league debut today. He took control of the rotation spot with a brilliant spring, and showed advanced command of three or four pitches, and that gave him the edge not only over fellow prospects Danny Hultzen and Tai Walker, but mlb vets like Garland and Bonderman. I’ve been trying to figure out who he reminds me of, and I’ve landed on this comparison: Texas starter Matt Harrison. Both are 6’4″-6’5″ and not exactly built like Chris Sale. Both feature four-seamers, two-seamers, a very hard slider/cutter (around 86mph) and a change-up, and both get a ton of arm-side movement on their fastballs. Sure, Harrison’s a lefty and Maurer’s a righty, but I don’t think it’s against the law to point out the similarities between the two. Harrison moved slowly in the Braves and then Rangers systems, but was the #90 prospect in baseball at one point – about where Maurer was this off-season.
AJ Griffin is still the same bafflingly successful righty throwing 89mph fastballs up in the zone and watching the flyballs settle harmlessly in his OF’s gloves. He’s not just a Beavanite though – Griffin gets an above-average number of strikeouts, due in part to a good curveball. Still, his entire game seems to be based on the whole BABIP-suppressing, not-too-many-HR tightrope-walking blueprint that Jarrod Washburn and “crafty lefties” have been using for years. Doesn’t he know he’s right-handed? His strand rate figures to rise a bit this year, but he could regress and still be a league average hurler – not bad for an unheralded 13th round pick. The M’s saw him a few times in 2012, and then they faced him another couple of times this spring, so if the element of surprise was a component in his success last year, hopefully that’s not going to be a factor now.
Brendan Gawlowski has a great preview/article on Maurer’s debut over at LL here that’s worth a read.
The line-up:
1: Saunders, RF
2: Gutierrez, CF
3: Ibanez, DH
4: Morse, LF
5: Smoak, 1B
6: Seager, 3B
7: Ackley, 2B
8: Shoppach, C
9: Andino, SS
SP: Brandon Maurer
M’s Minor League Preview
The rosters are (finally) set, and the M’s affiliates in Clinton, IA, Adelanto, CA, Jackson, TN and Tacoma, WA are finally ready to begin their 2013 campaigns. Let’s take a look at who’s playing where, and what to look for this season:
1: The most interesting roster from a prospect point of view is AAA Tacoma. The two top lefty SPs, Danny Hultzen and James Paxton, begin the year in Tacoma’s rotation, and IF prospects Nick Franklin and Stefen Romero add interest to the line-up. Forgotten man Alex Liddi, fresh from a very successful stint with the Italian team in the WBC, returns to play 3B. Carlos Triunfel will split the middle infield innings with Franklin, and injury-plagued IF Nate Tenbrink finally moves up to the AAA level where he may see some time in the corners in the infield as well as in LF. If that weren’t enough, 1B Rich Poythress moves up as well, after spending the last two seasons in AA Jackson. To make room for all of these infielders, Vinnie Catricala will start off in AA Jackson. And in perhaps the most aggressive promotion, top prospect Mike Zunino will start in AAA to catch Hultzen and Paxton and prepare for his ascent to the majors. Jeremy Bonderman accepted his assignment to AAA, and looks to build arm strength alongside AAA vets Andrew Carraway and DJ Mitchell. The bullpen has loads of experience, starting with Brian Sweeney, who’ll make an appearance with Tacoma in the seventh year. His first appearance with the Rainiers was in 1999, when Raul Ibanez and Mike Blowers played with the club, and he’s coming off some solid performances in the WBC. Jhonny Nunez and Danny Farquhar have AAA experience from the right side while Bobby LaFromboise and Brian Moran were dominant lefties for the Rainiers in 2012.
Team should be: really, really good. The PCL as a whole is as stacked as its been in recent memory, but this is the 2nd or 3rd most talented team in the circuit. Only Memphis is a step above in raw talent, with Las Vegas close behind in 3rd.
Interesting starter: Danny Hultzen. Is that weird Steve Dalkowski impression a thing of the past? If so, he would be ready for the majors in short order.
Interesting reliever: I was somewhat surprised to see Logan Bawcom move up ahead of guys like Forrest Snow or Jonathan Arias, but the righty (whom the M’s picked up in the Brandon League trade) had a solid spring after a stop in the Arizona Fall League. It’s not crazy to think he could see some time in Seattle in September.
Interesting position player: If Mike Zunino’s pitch blocking improves, it may be hard to keep him down come July. This is as good a position-player prospect as the M’s have had in a while. People point to Jeff Clement, but Clement’s initial seasons in the minors, in winter ball (he played in the old Hawaiian league) and in AAA weren’t stellar. We remember his insane half-season in AAA, but he stumbled out of the gate. Zunino hasn’t stumbled, or come close to stumbling, at the plate in his brief career. If he keeps that up in his first taste of AAA, the M’s will look to move Kelly Shoppach.
2: AA Jackson isn’t far behind Tacoma in prospect interest. Taijuan Walker returns to AA with a new curveball grip and a new pitch (a cutter) to refine. Brad Miller also returns to AA, a victim of the IF-heavy Tacoma line-up, and the desire to get consistent playing time for Nick Franklin, Carlos Triunfel and Miller. Miller opened a lot of eyes in training camp and may have passed Franklin as the presumptive SS of the future, but Franklin’s AAA experience and ability at 2B keep him in Tacoma. The rotation behind Walker isn’t as interesting as last year’s, but does include Anthony Fernandez, the lefty who was solid in 2012 in high-A and AA, and Chance Ruffin, the reliever who suffered through a horrific 2012 in the Tacoma bullpen. The most interesting assignment was probably Hector Noesi, who will try to rebuild his career in AA after a disastrous 2012 in Seattle/Tacoma, and an even-worse spring training. He’s lost none of his velocity or movement, but he’s getting shelled regularly. For the first time in a while, Jackson will be without pitching coach Lance Painter, who’d become perhaps the most important coach in the M’s system (Painter’s down in High Desert this year), so Noesi will work with newcomer Terry Clark instead. Noesi’s problems seem predominantly mental, so we’ll see if the change in environment helps or hurts his progress. There’s something of a jam in the outfield in Jackson, as Abe Almonte (the prospect the M’s got from New York in exchange for Shawn Kelley) figures to play alongside former 3B Francisco Martinez, who starts his first year as a CF. Julio Morban can play CF too, but may see more action in the corners with Almonte/Martinez on the roster. And, just to keep things interesting, James Jones and Leon Landry move up from High Desert. The starting OF moves up from one level, but the incumbents haven’t really moved, as Martinez remains the presumptive starter and Denny Almonte’s been replaced by yet another Almonte who can play some CF.
Team should be: Not quite as good as last year, but will be a playoff team in the Southern League. Jacksonville and potentially Mobile have equivalent talent, but the Generals have very solid depth in pitching and, of course, the OF.
Interesting starter: Taijuan Walker has the highest ceiling of anyone in the system, and one of the highest in the minor leagues. He showed his talent in the spring, and the fact that he was able to throw his cutter for strikes is encouraging, but his curveball wasn’t ready, and hitters were able to time his FB when he wasn’t able to get his new curve over. That’s fine – he’s still only 20, and he’ll have another opportunity to improve his stamina and consistency in the familiar environment of the Southern League.
Interesting reliever: Carson Smith was lights out in the Arizona Fall League, and continued his dominance in the spring. The Texan possesses one of the best, if not the best, slider in the entire system, and has the best sinker – a hard 93mph pitch thrown from a low arm slot that sinks and has all kinds of arm-side run. Righties don’t stand much of a chance, and lefties tend to roll over his sinker. He could be this year’s Stephen Pryor, despite being nothing at all like Stephen Pryor.
Interesting position player: I’m tempted to go with C John Hicks, but I think it’s got to be Julio Morban. The oft-injured OF was something of a surprise addition to the 40-man just before the Rule 5 draft, but he had a great spring following a great 2012 (at least while he was healthy). He could provide some much-needed OF depth behind the Tacoma group of Denny Almonte, Carlos Peguero and Eric Thames – who will probably be as insanely productive as they are strikeout prone.
3: High Desert’s days of seeing the M’s best pitchers skip over High A may be coming to an end, as Jackson’s pitching coach Lance Painter moves down a level to the California League (it’s not really a demotion; he’s just closer to his off-season home). The team includes several pitchers who will make their High-A debuts a bit later than initially thought – Seon-Gi Kim and George Mieses suffered through poor 2011 campaigns and injury-riddled 2012 seasons. Cam Hobson, Jordan Shipers and Robert Shore all move up from Clinton; none really has the pure stuff or statistical record that would’ve made a AA start a possibility, but it’s good to see that the M’s are willing to put somewhat interesting pitchers in the…unique environment Adelanto provides. The offense has its share of boom-or-bust hitters like Jabari Blash and Dan Paolini, but it’s balanced a bit by SS Chris Taylor and IF Ji-Man Choi, who showed his back problems were behind him by playing in the Australian winter league this year.
Team should be: Middle of the pack, with some potential. There’s just a lot of risk in the pitching staff, and not just because of the whole pitching-in-a-wind-tunnel thing. Mieses, Hobson and Kim had very poor results last year. Sure, they’ve got raw talent, but the roster needs a few more players who’ve put together solid pro lines. Guys like….
Interesting starter: Trevor Miller threw 150 very good innings, with a walk rate well under 2 per 9, and decent K rates. He got hit a bit more than you’d like in Clinton, giving up 11 HRs and a hit an inning, but he’s clearly earned the promotion and had a chance to start in AA. He pitched down the stretch in High Desert, so this isn’t a completely new assignment for him. George Mieses and Jordan Shipers are also worth keeping an eye on.
Interesting reliever: Matt Brazis was a four-year player at Boston College and signed with the M’s after being selected in the 28th round. To get on the radar, he needed to post some eye-popping numbers. In his brief 27+ inning introduction to pro ball, he struck out *51* batters against only 5 walks and a paltry 11 hits. Yes, yes, sample size and age-relative-to-league and that. But the point was, Brazis needed to put up a special line, and he did exactly that.
Interesting position player: I’ll go with Chris Taylor ahead of Choi and Paolini. Taylor signed to an above-slot bonus after having the reputation as a defense-first shortstop at Virginia, but he showed a bit more control of the strike zone than I would have thought – he posted a .900 OPS at short-season Everett with more walks than K’s. That can be discounted a bit considering his pedigree and college training, but that’s a college-heavy league, and you can’t really ask for more from that line. John Hicks had a similar reputation coming out of Virginia as a defense/leadership-first catcher, but impressed a bit in his initial pro games and then took off in High Desert in 2012. Here’s hoping Taylor does the same in 2013.
4: Clinton’s a fascinating team this year, with some of the college bats from the 2012 draft moving up from Everett and then a slew of players arriving straight from the Arizona League – skipping Pulaski and Everett entirely. All told, they look like a very good offensive team, though anyone can struggle -especially early on- in the pitching-friendly Midwest League. The big name here is Gabriel Guerrero, Vlad’s cousin, and one of the most talented players in the system. Guerrero opened a lot of eyes in the Arizona League and in the Dominican, and who appears in the 10-20 range of a number of M’s prospect lists. This is an aggressive assignment, and he could struggle here just as Guillermo Pimentel did last year. That said, Pimentel’s raw power was always accompanied with some holes; Guerrero should have a much better hit-tool than Pimentel, but there’s still plenty of risk here. Catcher Tyler Marlette brings his impressive tools to A ball after a solid season at Everett. He’s going to have to learn to walk a bit more, and the power that caught the eye of Tom McNamara still hasn’t shown up consistently, but if things click for him, he could be exciting. Corner IFs Patrick Kivlehan and Taylor Ard dominated the Northwest League last year and will take their shot at the much more difficult Midwest League this year. Kivlehan’s stats were great, but he’ll have to cut down on his strikeouts this year, and Ard is going to need to put up some power numbers as a college-trained hitter in A-ball.
Team should be: Very good, unless the Midwest League swallows Guerrero the way it did Alex Liddi and Greg Halman. Even if it does, they should have enough bats with Kivlehan, Ard and Dario Pizzano. A great blend of youngsters like Timmy Lopes, Guerrero and Marlette along with older players like the aforementioned college bats and 2B Brock Hebert.
Interesting starter: With the exception of Brazilian lefty Luiz Gohara, no one’s shot up the prospect rankings this year like Tyler Pike. The 3rd round pick out of a Florida high school pitched brilliantly in the Arizon League with more polish and a touch more raw stuff than people had seen coming into the draft. That got the lefty noticed, first in the Arizona League prospect lists, and throughout instructs. He ended up cracking Baseball Prospectus’ M’s top 10, which kind of takes the phenomenon to its logical extreme. He’s a very projectable lefty who receives a lot of plaudits for his competitiveness and demeanor, and backs it up with solid stuff. Again, this is a very aggressive assignment, considering Pike was drafted in 2012, but it underscores the confidence the player development staff have in him. Matt Anderson’s worth watching too.
Interesting reliever: RHP Grady Wood was a college starter turned reliever for Everett last year. He doesn’t have elite stuff, but his mechanics hide the ball fairly well, and he’s been tough to hit in college and in his Northwest League stint. He provides the steady, college-vet balance to the upside of guys like Pike.
Interesting position player: Timmy Lopes is getting criminally overlooked here, but there’s no question that the answer is Gabriel Guerrero. One of the few legitimate five-tool players in the system, it’s not crazy to think that Guerrero could end up in the top 5 of the M’s prospect rankings next year. Of course, he could talk to his teammate Guillermo Pimentel about the downside of prospect hype and how full-season pitching staffs are not exactly equivalent of those in the Dominican League. For all the M’s have spent on Caribbean prospects, they don’t have a ton to show for it -especially after they cut guys like Jharmidy DeJesus this winter. Guerrero’s better than Pimentel, and the best they’ve had since Carlos Triunfel, and I’m a lot more nervous than I was before I started writing this sentence.
As always, milb.tv is a good way to follow the upper-levels of the minors, as all of Tacoma’s games and a few of Jackson’s are televised. You can also catch some of Clinton’s games through the broadcasts of a few of their MWL rivals, and there’s a single California League team participating as well. Given that AAA/AA are where the bulk of the M’s best prospects will be, it’s a better year than most to try it. MiLB audio is free. For local readers, the Rainiers are broadcast in the South Sound on AM 850. The radio guys for the AAA and AA teams both have very good blogs to check regularly – Mike Curto’s blog is here and Chris Harris’ is here.
Here’s to a successful, and *healthy*, 2013 for the M’s full season affiliates!
Game 3, Mariners at Athletics
Joe Saunders vs. Tommy Milone, 7:05pm
There are a few ways to succeed as a fly-ball pitcher without top-shelf stuff. Today’s pitching match-up offers two very different ways to do so. The M’s Joe Saunders isn’t terribly worried about getting right-handed hitters out, and instead focuses on doing damage to lefties. Without a real outpitch, he doesn’t rack up strikeouts, so he’s got to limit walks and do whatever it is that lefties like this do to hold BABIP down. Overall, you get a fairly durable pitcher with a so-so to bad FIP and, ideally, good results in terms of runs allowed.
Tommy Milone’s fastball is in the 87-88mph range, noticeably slower than Joe Saunders, so not worrying about righties just isn’t an option. Instead, Milone’s developed a pretty darn good change-up – so good that he actually pitched better against righties than lefties last year. You could argue that an actual outpitch removes him from the category of a soft-tosser without much ‘stuff’ but c’mon, dude’s throwing 87 out there. Still, even with a great change-up, he’s also gets a pretty big assist from his home park. We could call this approach the Jason Vargas, with the reverse-split top-notes of “poor man’s Cole Hamels.”
Saunders took a step forward in terms of his K:BB ratio last year, though it’s not quite as impressive as it looks. Saunders K rate was a career high, but this was based almost entirely on his merciless treatment of his fellow pitchers while he pitched for Arizona. Similar to Gio Gonzalez, Saunders increased his K% (in this case from a career line of around 13% to 15%. In yet another indication of just how weird NL statistics can be, this was largely due to the fact that Saunders K’d 18 of the 40 pitchers he faced. His non-pitcher K rate was 13.4%. That’s an increase over his career rate through 2011, but it’s not exactly huge. On the other hand, the walk rate really was a significant drop that, unlike the K rate, made the transition back to the AL after Saunders moved to Baltimore. Saunders should see his FIP come down if he’s able to maintain this improvement without a corresponding increase in his HR rate. Given the AL West parks (er, not the Texas ones), this seems doable.
Today’s game marks Jason Bay’s debut, and his first start in the outfield as the M’s throw out a very right-handed line-up. Someone doesn’t believe in Milone’s reverse splits.
Line-up:
1: Gutierrez, CF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Morales, DH
4: Morse, RF
5: Smoak, 1B
6: Montero, C
7: Bay, LF
8: Andino, 2B
9: Ryan, SS
SP: Joe Saunders
Dustin Ackley gets the day off against a lefty today, as the M’s say they wanted to get Robert Andino a start or two early on.
Yesterday’s game featured some decent performances from the M’s bullpen, but some possibly odd velocity readings. Carter Capps famously averaged – *averaged* – 99mph with his FB last year. It was slightly lower in the spring, which makes some sense as he stretches his arm back out, but last night his fastball averaged 93 mph, and by the end of his appearance, he was consistently at 92. Lots of caveats here – it’s a cold night in early April in Oakland, but that’s just not a level he approached at all in 2012. To be fair, we only saw him after he’d been stretched out in the minors. His arm slot looked to be very slightly lower than it was last year (which is saying something). In Capps’ defense, Oliver Perez was on the slow side too, but it’s just striking to see a guy who hit 100 with some regularity throwing 92-93.
My
Game 2, Mariners at Athletics
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Jarrod Parker, 7:05
Jarrod Parker was one of the most important reasons the A’s were able to beat expectation by a cool 20, 25 wins or so in 2012. The key acquisition in the Trevor Cahill trade, Parker was a top prospect who’d lost some luster following Tommy John surgery. His velocity had mostly returned, but the A’s needed him to rack up innings, and that seemed like a tall order. As it happened, the A’s top two pitchers in innings pitched were the rookie hurlers they got in two less-than-lauded trades. Parker (and Tommy Milone) steadied the rotation while Bartolo Colon went down for performance-enhancing drug use and Brandon McCarthy went down with a skull fracture. By the end of the year, they were effectively veterans alongside the mid-season call-ups like AJ Griffin and Dan Straily.
Parker uses a low-90s four-seamer and sinker, a slider and the rare curveball, but his bread and butter pitch is his change-up. When batters swung at it, they whiffed nearly half the time. Half! It’s a major reason why Parker, unlike so many young phenoms, doesn’t exhibit any real platoon splits. He throws it some against righties, particularly if he’s ahead in the count, but lefties get a steady diet of the pitch, and they struggled against it, tallying 20 hits (no HRs) and 8 walks against 58 Ks. The M’s are going to have a lefty-heavy line-up out there, since that’s the by-the-book play, but the hitters need to look for a fastball early and not have to expand the zone later in the at-bat. Helpfully, Parker throws first-pitch fastballs almost 70% of the time to lefties.
One guy who might want to look first pitch fastball and swing the bat is Dustin Ackley. I know, I know, part of the reason he’s valuable is that he’s got a discerning eye and he can make pitchers work by fouling off pitches and laying off borderline balls. But Ackley hasn’t been able to utilize those skills to regain his footing if he falls behind. If he puts the first pitch of an at-bat in play, he’s great – he’s hit .377 with a .597 slugging percentage. But he’s done so only 78 times. He’s got 13.6% of his total bases from the 7.5% of the time he’s put a first pitch in play. After falling behind 0-1, his OPS is only .580, though of course *Everyone* has a crappy OPS after falling behind. But even if he takes the first pitch for a ball, he’s hitting .235/.364/.358. With two strikes, his OPS is .473, which looks a bit like Brendan Ryan’s .490. The standard caveats apply: his career is still in the “small sample size” realm, and splitting it up by count or whatever just magnifies that. So take the preceding as something to watch, rather than as something we *know.*
Hisashi Iwakuma is going to be critical to the M’s chances this year. As the best blend of talent and experience in the rotation behind Felix, the M’s need him to pitch the way he did after taking a rotation spot last year. I know I’m a bit more sanguine about pitcher depth than Dave, but that doesn’t mean Iwakuma’s replaceable. He’s the biggest ground-ball guy on the staff, which is huge if you plan to trot out Morse or Bay in LF. The M’s combination of Hultzen and Ramirez can slot in for someone at the back of the rotation, but replacing a #2 is tough for any team in baseball. All of this to say: Iwakuma’s right shoulder needs to hold together this year. The veteran righty is now over a full year removed from shoulder soreness, but he’s also about to turn 32. Fingers crossed.
Today’s line-up:
1: Saunders, CF
2: Seager, 3B
3: Morales, DH
4: Morse, RF
5: Ibanez, LF
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Montero, C
8: Ackley, 2B
9: Ryan, SS
SP: Iwakuma
2nd game, and the first without Gutierrez, as the M’s continue to bring along slowly following his leg tightness. Again, if you’re going to make the fateful Ibanez-for-Gutierrez move in the line-up to face a righty starter and get Guti some rest, *this* is the day you do it. Keep it on the ground, Hisashi.
The M’s had a successful open house at Safeco Field last night, using the new video board to broadcast the game to about 15,000 fans. The weather undoubtedly helped, but I’m stunned there were what sounds like long lines to get into Safeco to watch a game on TV (albeit a really, really big one) and check out the new park. The pictures and comments I saw via twitter and blogs were universally positive. With the next ‘Supreme Court’ for Felix taking place on the 11th, it seems like a decent time to point out that the M’s communications/outreach staff seem like the best in baseball. This is not a bad attempt to curry favor or anything; with the comments Dave and I have made about the Jaso trade, it’d take a hell of a lot more than this to restore their view back to ‘indifference.’ It’s not the front office advantage I’d most prefer, but it’s the front office advantage we’ve got, and I feel like we should acknowledge them. Nice work, Kevin/Jeff/Rebecca/Randy/et al.
Your reminder: the full-season minor leagues open on Thursday. The Rainiers start the year in Fresno, while the Jackson Generals begin 2013 in Jacksonville, FL. High Desert begins in the almost-as-crazy conditions of Lancaster, while Clinton starts in Burlington. All of the full-season clubs and the M’s began the year on the road. Hmmm.
Some quick numbers from Felix’s opening day gem: Felix threw 24 change-ups in the game (the pitch fx pitch selection numbers mentioned during the broadcast were way off, a product of the algorithm having trouble differentiating Felix’s change and sinker), and got 10 swinging strikes. He got three ground-outs and one pop-up when the A’s put the pitch in play. As Felix’s FB has gotten a bit slower, it’s also gotten straighter. His four-seamer’s horizontal movement’s dwindled until he essentially had none to speak of for much of last year; his four-seamer acted more like a cutter, which presumably made the arm-side run on his sinker look more impressive. At least for last night, his four-seamer had more run than we’ve seen. I have no idea if this was a conscious adjustment, a pitch fx calibration error or just an outlier based on just 14 pitches. I can’t wait for Felix day again.
Jesus Montero Time To First Base
Last night, the Mariners played the A’s, and Jesus Montero started for the Mariners, because he’s a starter for the Mariners. The A’s were starting a lefty on the mound, which was good news for Montero, but the worse news was that the lefty is good and he generates a bunch of grounders. Sure enough, Montero wound up 0-for-4, and the three times he faced Brett Anderson, he grounded out up the middle. Some players are able to beat out grounders up the middle, but some players are Jesus Montero.
They weren’t just three groundouts, though. They were three moderately close groundouts, allowing us to time Montero down the line to the bag, since he would’ve been trying to out-run the throws. I remember during yesterday’s Red Sox/Yankees game I saw Ichiro bounce a classic soft grounder the defense wasn’t able to turn for a double play because Ichiro booked it to first. For some players, slow grounders are a part of the skillset, but Jesus Montero should try to avoid grounders like Eric Sogard should try to avoid peanuts. (Eric Sogard looks like he has a peanut allergy.)
How did Montero do? We go in order:
- Grounder No. 1
- link
- 149 frames from contact to base
- 4.97 seconds from contact to base
- out
- Double plays often involve three infielders. This was not a double play, but it involved three infielders, and the throw from the first one to the second one bounced and caused the second one to lose his momentum. Montero was out because it took him five seconds to get to the base, because he must’ve assumed a hit at first and kind of dogged it a little. Which is never a good idea because Montero could’ve been thrown out at first from center field, too. It isn’t out of the question that Jesus Montero runs on stilts.
- Grounder No. 2
- link
- 144 frames from contact to base
- 4.80 seconds from contact to base
- out
- This was kind of a routine grounder, and Montero pulled up at the end, but he still hustled down the line, probably because he heard it about his first effort. And he beat his first effort, by better than three percent. Alternate theory to the stilts theory: Montero always bats right after someone in the dugout gives him dual dead-legs. Or maybe he sits on his feet and his legs fall asleep. If there is one baseball thing you’re better at than Jesus Montero, this is it, this is it right here.
- Grounder No. 3
- link
- 142 frames from contact to base
- 4.73 seconds from contact to base
- out
- Sure, you could say Montero came close to beating this out. But he didn’t come that close, and look at the shortstop as he’s making the play. Look how he gets himself comfortable before throwing to the base. For most hitters, this play would’ve been rushed; for Montero, it was allowed to blossom organically. They always say defenders know who’s running before the ball is put in play, so they know how quickly they have to react. This isn’t necessary for Jesus Montero, as defenders can pick up the baseballs and ask the other infielders about Montero’s running speed and general off-field interests before completing the plays. “Who’s this guy?” “Jesus Montero.” “He run?” “Not really.” “Isn’t there another…” “Yeah, there’s another Jesus Montero, in the minors.” “Can he run?” “Don’t know.” “You think, though?” “I mean, maybe, but I doubt it, probably a catcher and well, you know.” “Yeah.” “Yep.” “Man, this thing’s kinda slippery.” /crow hops /crow hops /throws
And that’s another analysis of Jesus Montero running to first base. In time this’ll get old, but for now it feels fresh, just like everything else having to do with the new baseball season. Pretty soon it’ll all get routine, and pretty soon after that it’ll probably all get kind of boring, with occasional exceptions. Our astonishing, irrepressible ability to adjust is our greatest strength and our most crippling weakness.
New Mariners Win Like Old Mariners
For the Mariners, this was an offseason of change. There was change within the front office, somewhat in terms of personnel, but more in terms of philosophies. And this was reflected by change on the roster, as the Mariners added some experienced dinger hitters in an effort to add experience and dinger hitters. These Mariners just set a club record for dingers in spring training, and there’s been talk that for the first time in years, the Mariners have a legitimate core of the lineup. So on opening day the Mariners beat the A’s 2-0 thanks to excellent pitching and a groundball single.
Feeling like a pessimist? Argue that the changes didn’t make any difference. Feeling like an optimist? Argue that the Mariners didn’t even need the additions to chip in to win. Feeling like a realist? Argue nothing because it’s been one game of a baseball season. Do you remember how long these things are? Imagine how long you think a season is. Multiply that by seven and then add 40 more games. Don’t worry right now about the big picture. Worry about the little picture, in which the Mariners just won a regular-season baseball game. A game it feels like they’ve played a dozen dozen times before against the Oakland A’s alone.
Since 2008, now, the Mariners and A’s have played 96 times. In 19 of those games, one of the teams was shut out. In 96 of those games, at least one of the teams looked entirely, woefully inept. The A’s might be coming off a playoff berth, but when they get together with the Mariners, all that old familiar magic is rekindled, to the possible delight of some.
When I used to recap regularly, I think after every opening day I’d say the same thing: even though it’s only one win, it’s a meaningful win. If you expected the Mariners to win X% of 162 games, now they’d win X% of 161 games plus one win. Every win matters and you never know when they’ll really matter. This is the Mariners’ seventh opening-day win in a row. After the previous six opening days, they’ve gone 431-535. I can’t pretend to be super excited anymore, not over one win, but I can be generally pleased, over one win and over having the baseball soundtrack back. I didn’t expect today to feel as refreshing and enjoyable as it did. Not just the Mariners, even; all day, there was real baseball on TV, and it does make me feel a little more centered.
How meaningful is this win? Again, this is the seventh straight year the Mariners are starting 1-0. Last year, they started 1-0, and Dustin Ackley hit a dinger. The year before, they started 1-0, and Chone Figgins hit a dinger. The year before that, they started 1-0, and Rob Johnson hit a dinger. Tonight, nobody hit a dinger, and Felix Hernandez was excellent. There’s nothing to read into, nothing to extrapolate — the meaning is that Felix was excellent and that every fifth day, the Mariners aren’t actually at a disadvantage. This was a game on opening day that easily could’ve been a game in the middle of August. It didn’t feel special; Felix felt special, and the game felt mostly normal. Be happy to have baseball back, and to have one fewer day of possible complaining.
I’m not going to make a habit of doing this. I might not do this five times — it’s one of the main reasons I left Lookout Landing in the first place. I’m moving on from nightly Mariners recaps, but tonight gets an exception because tonight is opening night and there’s only one of these a year. Or, three of these, for Major League Baseball as a whole. Something has to be written about Felix dominating again on opening day, even if this is starting to feel like old hat. It would be weird for the outcome of the game to not be acknowledged.
Felix was actually perfect into the bottom of the fourth, when he coughed up a double to John Jaso. Prior to the game, Felix gifted Jaso with a Rolex out of gratitude for catching last year’s perfecto. This is precisely why Felix equipped that Rolex with a self-destruct mechanism operated remotely. The A’s didn’t get their second hit until the sixth, and it sucked. The third hit came in the eighth, and it was legitimate, and then Felix issued a walk when he was fatigued. Up until the end, Felix was incredibly strong, and his changeup was so lethal it literally killed six guys, the game stopped for ambulances and everything. Felix did have to grimace through some bullpen anxiety, and this easily could’ve wound up another no-decision, but the memory of all those no-decisions makes this winning decision all the more sweet. In that way the Mariners have actually been good for Felix’s psychological health.
Felix would’ve allowed a run were it not for Brendan Ryan in the fourth. With two down and a runner on third, Yoenis Cespedes bounced a grounder up the middle that Ryan fielded on the outfield grass. He spun and threw a strike to first, across his body yet strong and on the fly. Cespedes was retired by a step and Ryan returned to the dugout unencumbered by carrying a heavy Gold Glove in his pocket. It was Ryan who made the defensive play of the day, and it was Ryan who went 1-for-1 with two walks. Brendan Ryan said he wanted to play more like David Eckstein, and it was mission accomplished tonight, as Ryan was annoying.
As for Jaso, if you miss him, he popped out, he doubled, he struck out on ten pitches, he allowed a stolen base, he missed a few borderline strike calls, and he was pinch-hit for against a lefty reliever. So Oakland got the same John Jaso experience we all basically got to have last season. It’s a fine experience that doesn’t measure up to the Felix Hernandez experience. The Mariners’ new regular catcher, Jesus Montero, had a ball foul-tipped so hard off his mask in the ninth inning it gave the ROOT Sports camera feed a concussion. Kenji Johjima used to make a habit of getting hit in the junk. Jesus Montero is making a habit of getting hit in the head. He and Franklin Gutierrez are not allowed to be friends.
The Mariners scored on a walk, a single, and a single. They did nothing else, although in fairness Brett Anderson is terrific. Tonight it was enough. Most nights it will not be enough, but most nights the Mariners probably won’t be limited to two runs. Mariners relievers threw just 12 strikes out of 27 pitches and that’s how this game actually got interesting, but it’s good they did that in retrospect, because it made things more electric. The Mariners now have the same record as the Astros. Happy opening day.
Game 1, Mariners at Athletics
King Felix vs. Brett Anderson, 7:05pm
Happy Felix Day, and happy opening day. So much of the conversation in the Spring and before centered on the M’s projections and how their new-look offense would perform in their new-look ballpark. As Dave’s post below touches on, the M’s have real problems, and the gap between them and the elite teams in the division and the American League again looks formidable. They’ve made some headscratching roster moves, and they weren’t able to reel in a few players they targeted in free agency and the trade market. The team is forecast to finish 4th in the division, and the Fangraphs Positional Power Rankings illustrates why: the M’s had the 4th best players at nearly every position. But today’s not about any of that. Today’s opening day, featuring a great pitching match-up. Most of all, today means we can take a break from the focus on roster construction, disappointments, talent gaps and questionable rotations: today we can put the focus back where it should be, on Felix Hernandez.
This isn’t to suggest that I/we are giving up on analysis or that this blog is converting to a Felix fanfic tumblr format (there’ve been enough changes in the M’s blogosphere, frankly). But I’ve missed baseball more than anyone who’s watched three consecutive last-place teams has any right to. There’s a trap in reveling in the exploits of one singular talent on a bad club in that it becomes ‘enough’. The team’s frittered away three years, but give me 32 Felix Hernandez starts and, well, how bad to we really have it? That’s all well and good, but for today, it actually IS enough. Opening day means we can stop tabulating probabilities and start rooting *against* them. It’s something that numerophobic fans fail to understand: knowing how unlikely something is doesn’t mean you’re disappointed if you achieve it. If anything, it heightens one’s appreciation of it. Felix is pitching and the M’s are only a half-game back of the Astros, who, frankly, probably peaked last night. The M’s chances at a wildcard are slim, but they’re not zero, and while a rotation of Felix and some question marks doesn’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence, it’s tough to be too pessimistic about a rotation that starts off like this one.
While I’ve got your pixels, I thought I’d give my own thoughts on the 2013 season. This isn’t exactly a response to Dave’s post, just a slightly different way of getting to the same basic answer:
I’m completely agreed that there’s an undercurrent of antagonism between segments of the M’s fanbase, though this is probably to be expected given the debates roiling in baseball as a whole. There’s so much point scoring, so many jeremiads, because “I don’t know” blog posts and columns don’t get traffic. I am deeply, deeply skeptical that there’s any real value in veteran-ness, but I’d be lying if I said that Brandon McCarthy or other players views on the subject didn’t make me think. I’m going to try and remember that the first few times I see correlation-equals-causation article. I’ll also try and enjoy the fact that if I’m seeing such an article, at least some of the youngsters would be producing, and I’m tired of watching the crappy version of Justin Smoak.
My view on the M’s pitching depth is a bit more optimistic. Erasmo Ramirez is an excellent starter, provided that his elbow soreness clears up. It’s worth remembering he had a brief bout of it last year, but that was before his excellent stretch run, so hopefully it’s something that won’t hinder his progress in the medium/long term. Beyond Ramirez, I have reasonably high expectations for Danny Hultzen, whose command simply isn’t quite what we thought it was coming out of college, but isn’t anywhere close to the Dalkowski-essque mess we saw in Tacoma last year. James Paxton is a wild card here as well; he didn’t look ready this spring, but he was brilliant late in the year and into his first few appearances in the Arizona Fall League. There are other, more replacement-level, starters behind these three, and then there’s Tai Walker, the most talented of all, sitting in AAA. I think some fans may overstate how MLB ready guys like Hultzen are right now, but the M’s best pitchers are all in the very high minors, and this gives the M’s more depth than all be one or two teams int the majors.
We all saw it with Ichiro and the absolutely baffling arguments we somehow needed to have about him: a certain segment of the fanbase focuses its ire on the team’s best player. Well, there’s got to be a corollary for focusing one’s ire on a reliably mediocre player. It’s not as crazy as hating on the team’s best player, but the M’s have been a target rich environment for replacement-level ballplayers in recent years. So I really don’t quite get the bafflement at Blake Beavan being the target of such scorn. This team suited up Chone Figgins last year! Hector. Noesi. I’m with Matthew that Beavan is a bit underappreciated here – he’s the 5th starter, and isn’t claiming to be anything else. In a bit over one full year of playing time, he’s amassed 1 fWAR. That’s – I mean, that’s not any good, but it’s better than replacement level, obviously. And if you look at runs on the scoreboard/fielding dependent WAR, he’s almost league average. You don’t have to believe that his RA WAR tells the whole story, but this isn’t a bad 5th starter. Particularly if he’s able to get more ground balls this year, he could post a 1-1.5 WAR year in 175IP or so, and while it’s not going to put the M’s over the top, that’s pretty darn good for your league minimum 5th starter.
Some predictions:
1: Dustin Ackley rebounds, because how can he not, but he remains an enigmatic disappointment. The contact skills aren’t quite as elite as we thought, but they’re definitely good enough for him to raise his average significantly, but his power won’t match his rookie half-season’s. I sincerely hope Dave’s right and Dustin’s the most talented young hitter in the organization, but this is a doubles hitter who’ll be playing in a park that may suppress doubles. Dave’s right that he wasn’t as bad as his raw stats suggested, but there are some troubling signs there too – I’ve mentioned it before, but he’s been an extremely pull-happy hitter, particularly on ground balls. These slow grounders to 2B seem to be the result of reliably bad contact – like his hit tool allows him to make a certain kind of contact, even when he’s fooled. This is something he did in Tacoma in 2010, but looked to get away from in 2011. If he’s going to be anything like the best hitter in the org, he’s going to have to make those adjustments again.
2: I’ll definitely take the over on the M’s bullpen’s projections. I think Furbush is in for some regression (as is Luetge), but that will be partially balanced by solid years from Capps and Wilhelmsen. In addition, the bullpen’s usage is going to work to their advantage. I think the M’s are going to have the platoon advantage in more at-bats than most teams – gone are the generalists like Shawn Kelley and in their place are specialists like Perez, Capps, Kinney and Furbush. This could make the 8th inning interminable, but the M’s bullpen figures to post decent raw stats.
3: I’m with Dave on essentially all of the roster changes between the 1st and 2nd halves – the M’s will get younger because they have to. We’re going to see some line-ups with 6 players over 30 for a while (not tonight, however). I also think Michael Saunders ends the year as the starting CF, either due to another injury to Guti or due to a trade. I’m not sure the M’s would send Montero to Tacoma because it’s not clear he’d have a better shot to play full-time down there. With the M’s sending Mike Zunino to AAA, I think it’d be problematic to have TWO future catchers on the same roster. It’s possible, of course, but I think the M’s would DH him at the big league level for a while until they either moved Morales or Shoppach around the deadline.
4: The Astros don’t make a run at infamy and post a bad instead of historically significant season. The M’s win total improves due to their presence, but they’re not winning 15-16 of these games. I’d put them at 68 wins or so – a far cry from the low-50s I’ve seen in various places. Still comfortably in last place, of course.
All told, I think the M’s end up right at .500 at 81-81. I think there’s enough talent to improve upon last year’s finish, but enough inconsistency and volatility to prevent a real run at the division or wildcard. Certainly hope I’m wrong.
Let’s go M’s, and let’s go Felix!
Your opening day line-up:
1: Gutierrez, CF
2: Saunders, RF
3: Morales, DH
4: Morse, LF
5: Smoak, 1B
6: Seager, 3B
7: Montero, C
8: Ackley, 2B
9: Ryan, SS
SP: Felix
My Thoughts on the 2013 Season
Opening Day is here. After a long winter and an even longer spring training, the season is finally about to begin. Here now are some thoughts I have about the upcoming 162 game stretch for the Mariners.
1. The Mariners philosophical change over the winter, and their subsequent roster makeover, are going to have the unfortunate effect of making the “stats versus chemistry” argument the defining narrative of the season. Because the organization decided to swap out their young depth guys for aging team leader types, you can basically guarantee that any improvement from the young players will be credited to the old guys. Dustin Ackley rebounds from a terrible year? Prepare for Raul Ibanez to get all the credit. Justin Smoak keeps hitting like he did at the end of last year? It’s because the team acquired Michael Morse and Kendrys Morales and allowed him to hit lower in the batting order.
I’m beyond tired of these arguments, and I’ll readily admit that I’m not at all looking forward to a season full of both sides using the teams performance to lob “I told you so” jabs at each other. There is no such thing as one season by one team that proves anything definitively. If the Mariners win, it doesn’t prove chemistry is the most important factor in team building. It the Mariners lose, it doesn’t prove that chemistry is bunk and leadership is useless. This season is not a litmus test for either side.
2. The other big change for 2013 is the expected home run output. The Mariners changed Safeco’s dimensions and prioritized power hitting in their offseason acquisitions, so odds are good that they’re going to hit more dingers than they have in a while. Unfortunately, I’m not sure that the Mariners offense is actually going to be a lot better than it was last year, once you adjust for park effects and measure offense by something other than home run total. While everyone keeps talking about the additional power, we seem to be omitting the fact that the team is headed into the season with Franklin Gutierrez and Michael Saunders hitting #1 and #2 in some order.
ZIPS projects a .296 OBP for Guti and a .303 OBP for Saunders. Even if Morse and Morales provide a significant power boost, they’re going to hit a lot of solo home runs until the organization develops a couple of guys who can get on base at a reasonable clip. Dustin Ackley and Kyle Seager have some potential to be those guys, so maybe this problem will resolve itself by the end of the season, but historically, the data shows that low OBP + dingers does not equal a lot of runs.
Last year, for instance, the Blue Jays hit 198 home runs — #6 in MLB — but only had a .309 on base percentage, so they posted a 94 wRC+ and only scored 716 runs despite playing in a very hitter friendly ballpark. Same deal with the Orioles, who hit 214 homers, but their .311 OBP contributed heavily to just 712 runs scored and a 96 wRC+. Really, you can even look at the Mariners performance last year. Despite all the talk about the lack of power, they hit 149 homers last year, tied for #20 in baseball despite playing with Safeco’s old dimensions and in a very cold year in the northwest. Their .296 OBP was last in the majors, though, so they only scored 619 runs.
Safeco’s new dimensions will increase HR output, but the results of adjusting the fences at other parks suggests that those extra home runs will come at the expense of fewer doubles and triples. Given that the Mariners have stocked their line-up with aggressive free swingers, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the team’s OBP actually went down from last year, and the team’s offense continued to look like a real problem. If Smoak, Ackley, and Montero take big steps forward and live up to their prospect billing, then the offense will likely be better, but without significant improvement from those three, I don’t think this line-up is actually all that much better than it was last year.
3. Pitching is much harder to project than offense and not just because of the frequency of injuries. So, I’d rather have a pitching staff with a bunch of question marks than a group of position players that I didn’t trust. That said, this pitching staff has some pretty serious problems. The post-Felix part of the rotation is one of the worst in baseball. The bullpen features a lot of guys who can struggle to throw strikes and need to be heavily matched-up to exploit platoon advantages. And, despite all the talk about The Big Three, the Mariners don’t really have a lot of depth in Triple-A to come up should things go poorly for the guys who made the staff out of spring training.
Safeco will still help the pitching look okay, most likely. It’s still cold in Seattle, after all, and the ball still isn’t going to fly very well in night games when the roof is open. People aren’t very good at mental park adjustments, so if Blake Beavan puts up a 4.50 ERA, they’re not going to see that as a huge problem, especially because that used to be a decent performance in MLB about 10 years ago. But, when it comes to actually outscoring your opponents, the low run environment of the northwest means that the bar is raised for Mariners pitchers, and giving up four or five runs in Safeco means that the team is probably going to lose. This is the worst pitching staff the Mariners have put together in quite a while, and if this team falls apart, it will probably be due to the lack of quality arms on the roster.
4. I realize these last few paragraphs sound pretty negative, so let me change the tone a bit. I don’t think this team is terrible, and the addition of the Astros to the AL West should give them a decent shot at finishing around .500. On true talent level, I’d peg this as a 75-77 win team, and then the schedule adjustment might push them up to 78-80 wins. Any team that projects as an 80ish win team heading into the season has a puncher’s chance at a playoff spot simply due to normal variance. If enough things break the Mariners way, they could win 90 and challenge a wild card spot. On the flip side, if enough things don’t break their way, they could win 70 games and we could be in for another season of same-old, same-old. The outcome isn’t written in stone. There’s enough young talent in place that things could legitimately go either way.
And, long term, there are reasons to think that this organization could be a winner. I’m very bullish on Mike Zunino, and wouldn’t be shocked if he was one of the Mariners best players by next season. The flawed veterans are all on short term deals, and if this season goes off the rails, they’re not going to be blocking better young players down the road. While a lot of the focus for 2013 is going to be on Morse, Morales, Saunders, and the rest of the rent-a-veterans, this franchise is still built around Ackley, Seager, Smoak, Montero, Zunino, and the rest. I don’t love the supporting cast, but I haven’t given up on the core group yet. With better role players around them, this organization could be a winner in the not-too-distant future. I just wouldn’t bet on that future manifesting itself in the first half of 2013.
And now, for just a few random predictions, based on things I think might happen this year.
Jesus Montero will spend at least a couple of months in Tacoma. With DH out of the picture for now, he’s only going to play as much as they’ll let him catch, and I don’t think the coaching staff is going to want him catching as much as he’s slated to right now. I think Kelly Shoppach may be the regular starter as early as mid-May, and Montero might end up in Triple-A in order to get regular playing time rather than sit and watch in the big leagues. If Zunino starts strongly in Tacoma, he might by up by mid-summer, but either way, I don’t expect the Montero-as-starting-catcher experiment to last that long.
Dustin Ackley is going to remind everyone why he’s the best young hitter in the organization. People are hurting themselves in an effort to get off his bandwagon, but Ackley’s hit tool is still well above average, and all of his numbers suggest that 2012 was a bit of a fluke. High contact, patient hitters with gap power succeed in the big leagues all the time. Ackley might not be a thumper, but I expect he’ll end the year back near the top of the batting order.
The Mariners will extend Michael Morse pretty soon. If he hits at all in the first few months of the season, I’d expect the team to approach him about a deal that keeps him from free agency. They’ve invested a lot into the Michael Morse Spectacle this spring, and with a complete void in outfield prospects in the pipeline, they’ll have extra motivation to keep him around. My wild guess is that he gets 3/45 before the All-Star break, and that I’ll write a long post explaining why the team just signed up for Richie Sexson 2.0.
The 8th inning proves to be a significant problem for the team this year. Charlie Furbush had a great year in 2013, but I can’t see him coming close to that performance again, and Carter Capps looks like a guy who is still best used situationally to me. Wilhelmsen is really the only guy down there I’d trust against batters from both sides of the plate, so there are going to be nights when the bullpen isn’t fresh enough to mix-and-match, and leads will be blown in the 8th inning because Wedge has to leave a pitcher out there to face an opposite handed batter in a high leverage situation. While focusing on bullpen development shouldn’t be a priority for a rebuilding team, this organization could really use one more shutdown reliever.
The second half roster will look very little like the opening day roster. Whether due to injuries or trades, I’d expect Michael Saunders to finish the year in center field and Brad Miller to begin manning shortstop in the second half of the year, while the rotation will likely include Erasmo Ramirez and Danny Hultzen. The Mariners are veteran heavy coming out of spring training, but I think they’ll end the year with a very young roster once again.
And, finally, I expect everyone will be back for one more run next year. I think the young guys will show enough to keep anyone from getting fired, though the team won’t win enough to earn long term extensions for everyone in charge either. They’ll get one more shot to win with the young players they’ve acquired. 2014 is the make-or-break year. 2013 is another building-for-the-future season, or will be seen that way in retrospect, at least.
Gun to my head, I’ll peg the 2013 Mariners for 79 wins, +/- 10 wins in any direction. But like the rest of the recent years, this season will be judged more on the individual performance of young players than the final record.
A Jeff Sullivan and Matthew Carruth podcast
Hello there, USS Mariner.
I am Matthew Carruth. I used to comment here, and then I used to write across the street at Lookout Landing, but then SBN decided to be SBN, and so I left, and now I’m here. I don’t know how much or how often I will be writing as freed from obligation, this will purely be a when-I-fancy-it effort on my part. Hopefully I can add a little bit.
One thing I can add are these podcasts. Jeff and I used to do them semi-irregularly at LL and now we will do them semi-irregularly here. I make no assurances about your enjoyment of these. I myself am not an overwhelming podcast fan, but we always got positive responses from some people and so, written shrug, as long as it makes some people happy. It’s not like we force you to listen to these or that you’re paying for them.
I don’t have the same embedding options here that I did over yonder so please exercise one of the below links should you wish to listen.
Podcast with Jeff and Matthew: Direct link! || iTunes link! || RSS/XML link!
Jason Bay And Casper Wells Facts
Some time ago it became abundantly clear that Jason Bay and Casper Wells were going to be fighting for the same job. Less time ago, it became pretty clear that the Mariners preferred Bay, and a few days ago, while the Mariners said they were going to let the competition play out, the team took Bay to Salt Lake while it left Wells in Arizona. Today, the expected became official: the Mariners put Bay on the 25-man roster, and they designated Wells for assignment. The team now has ten days to trade, release, or outright Wells, and several more days after that to try to forget that the Doug Fister deal ever happened. I personally haven’t been able to do that so I think we’re going to need some scientists.
Wells, probably, is going to end up getting traded to a team with a thin outfield in exchange for a non-roster barely-prospect. It’s hard to imagine that Wells would clear waivers, even at this point in time. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but I wouldn’t plan on it. As such, I thought this would be a good time to present some Jason Bay and Casper Wells facts of interest.
Fact
Casper Wells is 28 years old. Jason Bay is 34 years old.
Fact
Wells has four more years of team control. Bay is on a one-year contract.
Fact
Wells and Bay are both right-handed.
Fact
Wells debuted in the majors in 2010. Since then, he’s batted 656 times, while Bay has batted 1,125 times. According to FanGraphs, Wells has averaged 3.6 WAR per 600 plate appearances, while Bay has averaged 0.4 WAR per 600 plate appearances. When I did an Excel search for “Jason Bay”, I accidentally did an Excel search for “Jason Ba”, and before I got down to Jason Bay I wound up at Jason Bartlett. Jason Bay has been less valuable than Jason Bartlett.
Fact
Part of that difference is because the defensive numbers like Wells and think less of Bay. But looking at offense only, Wells has posted a 110 OPS+, while Bay has posted a 90 OPS+. Wells has posted a .189 ISO, while Bay has posted a .135 ISO.
Fact
And we can’t just ignore defense, because defense is one of an outfielder’s responsibilities. Even if you aren’t a fan of the metrics we have at our disposal, it stands to reason that Wells is a better defender than Bay is. He’s younger, he’s more athletic, and people have trusted him to play center field. Bay is by no means slow, and some years ago we were probably too hard on him when he was a free agent, but all baseball authorities would agree that they’d rather have three Casper Wellses in the field with the game on the line than three Jason Bays.
Fact
Bay hasn’t played center in a meaningful game since 2005. Wells started nine games in center a year ago. The Mariners’ starting center fielder is Franklin Gutierrez, and their only other option is Michael Saunders, so Wells would’ve provided greater useful flexibility.
Fact
While Wells has drawn criticism for being streaky, or for not being a starter-caliber player, every player in baseball is streaky, and Wells wouldn’t have been expected to start. Bay’s the guy coming off a .240 wOBA. Bay hasn’t been a starter-caliber player for years, and now he is only older.
Fact
Bay is said to be a phenomenally nice guy and he’s got plenty of veteran experience, but the whole reason the Mariners targeted Raul Ibanez was because of his personality and experience and shouldn’t one be enough? What does it mean for the Mariners’ valuation of Ibanez if they felt like they also needed Bay at least in part because of his intangibles?
Rationally, there’s no question that Jason Bay could bounce back. I kind of expect him to, and based on our conversations, Dave feels kind of the same. Bay is healthier now, and he’s in a new environment, and he’s obviously looked good in the spring. Jason Bay, in 2013, could be useful, and we could even come to like him. He’s local. Hooray Jason Bay! Were it not for the Mariners having had Casper Wells, Bay would’ve made some amount of sense as a cheap acquisition. But the Mariners had Casper Wells, and he isn’t injured or sick. He’s young and healthy and the evidence points in his favor. Wells, too, is under control for a while, and while I get that Bay isn’t automatically gone after this year, especially if he’s productive, Wells is something of a long-term asset. Not an outstanding one, but one nonetheless.
There exists a possibility that Bay will out-perform Wells in 2013. There exists a possibility that Wells has already peaked, and that there are things about him that suggest worse things to come. Any projection, however, will take Wells every time, and it’s not like the numbers give him a tiny advantage. The numbers give him a massive advantage, and the Mariners have made a decision against that. We can try to rationalize it, and it should and could be rationalized, but take a step back and there’s no way this doesn’t look silly. Wells is a useful, versatile, young, healthy outfielder, and the Mariners are getting rid of him to make room for another team’s Chone Figgins.
Maybe, somehow, Wells clears waivers and goes to Tacoma, not that there’s playing time to be found there what with Eric Thames, Endy Chavez, and Carlos Peguero. More likely, Wells leaves in exchange for basically nothing. More likely, the Mariners will effectively trade Casper Wells for a fringe prospect and Jason Bay. It’s not a hugely awful move that’s going to have devastating long-term consequences. You can replace a guy like Wells, and this is one of those moves where we say “little bad moves add up”. You don’t want to make too much of those moves individually. But you have to make something of them, and this is a move that doesn’t make any statistical sense. Sometimes the stats miss the point. More times, humans are wrong.