Trade Deadline Notes
1: In a year in which the M’s have again collapsed, their big deadline move = trading a young, cost-controlled pitcher. We’ve all known teams were kicking the tires on Fister and Vargas, and I understand it given the team’s runs scored/runs allowed. But, and I know this sounds obvious, teams generally don’t trade league-average or better players making league minimum when they’re rebuilding. So… huh.
The M’s will receive a decent haul, especially once the player-to-be-named is, er, named. Casper Wells is an upgrade; I think he’s what Mike Saunders was supposed to be. He’ll need to adjust to Safeco, but a platoon of Carp and Wells seems to ensure league average production from that spot. Getting LF to league average is the sort of little victory that only an M’s fan would cherish, but I cherish it. He’s hit well for the Tigers in limited duty, and has shown some power in the minors. If the deal centered on Wells, however, I think we’d all be pretty disappointed.
Shannon Drayer reports that the PTBNL is one of the Tigers 2010 draft picks, which changes the complexion of the deal quite a bit. Without this piece, the M’s would’ve turned an above average-player on league minimum for a couple of guys who, if things broke right, could be above-average players for league minimum one day. Say what you want about trading from a position of strength, that’d be bad.
2: I think Furbush is interesting, and I hope he gets a chance to start with Seattle next year. He’s got some deception in his delivery, but let’s be clear: he throws harder than Doug Fister does, and he does it as a lefty. Just looking at his (terrible) starts, his FB was in the 91 range and he gets a lot more swings and misses than Fister with it. Of course, Fister was never about K’s, so it’s sort of an apples-to-oranges comparison, but, for what it’s worth, if Furbush cuts his HRs and/or walks, he’s a good MLB pitcher. We already know he’s a good AAA pitcher, and that’s helpful in itself, as the M’s don’t really have any of those at the moment.
I also have to say that I’m less dismissive of deceptive deliveries now than I was at the beginning of the year. I saw Josh Collmenter’s AAA debut against the Rainiers last year, and the over-the-top righty confused the Rainiers mightily with so-so stuff. The Rainiers got another crack at him late in the year and pounded him. As a result, I concurred with Keith Law’s view that Collmenter would regress hard and fast after his great start with Arizona, but instead, he’s maintained his Fisterian FIP/xFIP numbers. George Sherrill is another guy who’s made a decent living out of his deceptive left-handed delivery. He’s not a model of consistency, no, but he’s been effective for several years in and around bouts of ineffectiveness.
3: Fister’s defense-independent stats this year are great, and everyone’s talked about his velocity gain. But look at Fister’s pitch fx velocity chart here. You see an extraordinarily stable trend, with a big bump between late-May and mid-June of this year. I’m not sure what that velocity spike was all about, but it doesn’t seem to have stuck around. On May 30th, Fister averaged an astonishing (for him) 91 MPH on his two- and four-seam FBs, touching 94 MPH. It was such an odd result, I thought it couldn’t be real. But the Orioles starter, Jake Arrieta, looked normal. Fister backed it up in his next start by averaging 90+, touching 93. On June 9th, he faced Detroit and averaged over 91 MPH, and again hit 94 with his best FB. After that, his velocity got a bit more volatile, and he then settled in around his old 89 MPH average. The other day in the Bronx, for example, Fister’s average FB dipped below 89 MPH. On the year, he’s at 89, or exactly where he was in 2009. His 2010 looks anomalous for a number of reasons, and while it’s important to reiterate that Fister’s throwing a bit harder than he was last year, the difference is nowhere near what it was in mid-June. Fister apparently isn’t a guy who can throw 90-92 with regularity. I don’t know what happened there, but I’m glad he faced Detroit during that streak.
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Second USSM Podcast-y thing
Here you go as a straight mp3. Or let me just try the fancy embed…
Content:
- GMs who have lost 100 games
- Don’t believe the hype
- 90 bajillion plus one
- Getting to expansion
- Sonics Night and parallels
- I’d rather be watching Tony Hawk
- Action for the sake of action
- He who we wish would not be named
- The Mariner-related product you would buy last
- A word from our sponsors and two guys who can’t do ads
- Griffey hat
- Don’t stand near Ken Caminiti
- Doe, a deer
- We thank Frankie Rodriguez for his service to the team
- The Wily Mo Pena Era
- New Cheney
Comments from our second try at this: Marc sounds great. I sound way better than last time, but not as great as Marc. We gotta figure out levels. I don’t think our sponsor got value for their support. Technical-wise: this over Skype, Hijack Studio capturing the feeds, Garage Band to edit the track from that, final thing saved at 32vbr. I gotta get better at editing.
Suggestions welcomed.
Game 106, Rays at Mariners
What a beautiful day to go see Pineda pitch.
Fister and Pauley traded
The Mariners have announced that Doug Fister and David Pauley have been traded to the Tigers for Casper Wells, Charlie Furbush, third-base prospect Francisco Martinez, and a player to be named later. Apparently the key to this deal was making sure both sides got equal upside potential for juvenile humor out of the names on the roster.
In terms of the value the team got out of the trade, it’s not half bad. Fister is, of course, a steady starter under team control for several more years, which is valuable, and the deal shows that teams know better than to pay attention to pitcher win-loss records. But he’s being traded at the point of maximum return, considering that he seems to have reached a level of performance that’s about the most optimistic anybody could have projected for him. If he sustains it, good for him and Detroit. Anyone still mourning what Erik Bedard could have brought back if not for last night’s disaster, well, the haul wouldn’t have been nearly as substantial. Pauley is a lesser piece, but he’s also being dealt at pretty much the peak of his value, and keep in mind that he was signed as a minor league free agent.
Wells effectively takes Jack Cust’s roster spot as the front office rebalances bats and arms. Defensively, he’s a corner outfielder with a good arm and the ability to not embarrass himself in center. His bat is decent but not special, making him look tailor-made to be a platoon partner and defensive replacement for Mike Carp. If it also means Greg Halman can go back to AAA when Wily Mo Pena joins the team, great. Expect to see a lot more rotation of guys between the outfield and DH, as this gives Wedge more flexibility to give somebody a day off, use platoon advantages, play the hot hand, or whatever he wants to do. It’s not anything spectacular, but it’s also not blindly writing Peguero’s name in the lineup card day after day.
As a lefty, Furbush sort of explains the Aaron Laffey transaction after last night’s game. He could go back to being a starter, which he’s been in the minors. Perhaps one of the benefits of having put together the currently solid rotation can become breaking in potential future rotation arms in the bullpen, often considered the optimal development path for young pitchers.
Martinez is 20 and already at AA, so promising in that sense, and matches up with the most glaring positional need on the roster. He pretty much hits all the boxes Zduriencik needed to hit to look like he got the “right” prospect back in the trade. Now we watch and hope he develops. The PTBNL is supposed to be a “significant” player, and you can look and see that the Tigers’ top three picks from last year’s draft signed at the deadline and are not eligible to be traded until mid-August, so amateur sleuthing kind of hints in that direction. A supplemental or 2nd-round pick would be decent value, but it also means we’re talking about a straight-to-the-bullpen arm or somebody who’s still in A-ball.
Overall, there’s enough for both sides to feel like they got a fair trade. What may be interesting to consider is how similar the basic outline of the trade is to the structure of the Cliff Lee deal. You have a highly valuable starter (valuable for different reasons, but still valuable) packaged with a more modest bullpen arm in exchange for four players. Obviously, there are differences in terms of the upside and major-league-readiness of the guys coming back to make the trades look different, but when teams are falling into the roles of “buyers” and “sellers” at the trade deadline, they often follow common patterns to match up with their roles.
Aaron Laffey –> AAA, Dan Cortes –> Seattle
Aaron Laffey had a bad game tonight. I mean, *really* bad. And, to make matters worse, the Mariners had company over. The Sonics tried to ignore it, and they changed the subject when they could, but Laffey had a legitimately bad game.
Afterwords, the M’s optioned him to Tacoma and brought up Dan Cortes, who’s been terrible in July (but better in the past week or two). I don’t know; there’s not a whole lot to say about this. Laffey’s not good, and the speculation that he’d get a velocity jump by moving to the pen full-time haven’t been borne out. He’s replacement level, or a bit above. But a move like this just looks odd.
If they demoted a player for having a bad game, the M’s wouldn’t have anyone left. If they brought someone up for a hot week in AAA, the M’s would’ve recalled Peguero, Mike Wilson and they would’ve brought Alex Liddi and Johan Limonta up in May. I don’t know what was said in the dugout, and I have to assume that something beyond “Laffey didn’t have his best stuff” is at work here, but the move just doesn’t make a lot of sense. I know they’re moving vets out to see if some of the younger guys can step up, but Laffey is 26.
Laffey isn’t a great pitcher, so it ultimately means nothing. But what would you say is the rationale here? What’s the process that drives a move like this? I like Dan Cortes, and if the rationale is something as simple as “we need to get Cortes working with Jaime Navarro again” then I can sort of see it. But at least initially, this is head scratcher.
Game 105, Rays at Mariners
Bedard vs. Niemann, 7:10pm.
If this is Bedard’s last start in a Seattle uniform, I sincerely hope he goes out a winner. May you confuse and irritate a new set of beat writers, and may you win over that segment of another fanbase that isn’t given to musing about your motives and psychological make-up.
The M’s have been scouting the Detroit and Boston systems, but for now, I just hope the guy gets a nice ovation when his night is done.
The line-up:
1: Ichiro
2: Ryan
3: Ackley
4: Olivo
5: Carp
6: Smoak (DH)
7: Kennedy (1B)
8: Gutierrez
9: Figgins
Reliever Josh Lueke tweeted about today’s game, “Let’s keep this train rolling!” which is just adorable.
Cust DFA’d, Langerhans traded for cash considerations
Well, we’ve got a bit more information about how the M’s might use new designated hitter Wily Mo Pena.
The incumbent, Jack Cust, has been designated for assignment. This move allows Erik Bedard to retake his 25-man roster spot and pitch tonight in what’s widely seen as a trade showcase. Ryan Langerhans is suiting up for the Reno Aces tonight, the Diamondbacks AAA affiliate, meaning that the M’s essentially traded Langerhans (plus some cash) for Wily Mo Pena. With Saunders in CF, Peguero back in LF and a revolving cast of 1Bs, Langerhans didn’t really fit. He’s better right now than someone like Peguero or Tui, but that’s not important.
Pena will mostly likely join Tacoma tomorrow, though how long he stays in AAA is an open question. For now, the M’s may be back to using Adam Kennedy or Justin Smoak at DH. Shannon Drayer notes that the move also allows Blake Beavan to stay on the roster, which would help if the M’s decide to one of their starting pitchers before the trade deadline.
UPDATE:
The great Mike Curto mentions that by keeping Beavan on the roster, they avoid burning one of his options. He hasn’t used one because he was only added to the 40 man when they brought him up to Seattle.
Rainiers Game Thread, 7/28
Well, the M’s have an off night, and Dave’s radio hit on KGA’s done… how about checking in on the Rainiers?
Nate Robertson faces off against Carlos Hernandez of Sacramento at 7pm, but you should follow along anyway. No, Wily Mo isn’t in uniform yet, but the Rainiers have several familiar faces in the line-up, and it’s a good chance to check in on the A’s Chris Carter, Michael Taylor and Adrian Cardenas.
If, on the other hand, you’re not ready to deal with Carlos Peguero again so soon, I won’t be offended.
Gameday’s here, it’s on 850AM in Tacoma, and it’s on MiLB.tv too.
Rainiers’ line-up= Seager, Saunders, Liddi (3B), Peguero, Wilson, Limonta, Tuiasosopo (1b), Henriquez, Kazmar.
Dave On The Air
Not going to let a little thing like leukemia keep me from talking with Toby and the guys over at 1510 KGA in Spokane tonight. I’ll be on their airwaves at 4:40 pacific time, and I’m going to try to work in at least one hospital related joke.
M’s add Wily Mo Pena
This morning, the Jays acquired CF Colby Rasmus from St. Louis, picking up one of the best available talents in a three team deal. Undaunted, the M’s got to work and signed OF/DH/COMEDY Wily Mo Pena, who’d been cut by the Diamondbacks a week ago.
Pena was out of affiliated ball for a while, then bounced back in 2010 after signing with the Padres and playing in the PCL for Portland. This year for Reno, all he did was hit .363/.439/.726. Yes, Reno’s a bandbox, but he hit better on the road. Yes, the PCL is suddenly a collective bandbox, but that’s still quite impressive. After Juan Miranda struggled, Arizona called him up for just shy of 50 plate appearances. He didn’t draw a walk, struck out often, and hit five homers. As he’s a defensive liability, that wasn’t enough to maintain the D-Backs interest. They’re in a vastly different situation, as they had a 1B trapped in AAA (Brandon Allen), and another 1B mashing in AA (Paul Goldschmidt), and they play in the National League. Pena’s meant for the AL, and he’s meant for a team that’s not getting a lot of production from the DH spot (or any other spot).
Pena’s only 29, and he’s been a lefty masher in the minors, but his MLB splits aren’t anything out of the ordinary. For the moment, he’ll head to Peoria for a bit while the M’s figure out how to fit him onto a AAA roster that includes DH Luis Jimenez, Carlos Peguero, Matt Mangini, Matt Tuiasosopo and Mike Wilson. Jeff at LL hypothesizes that he could replace Jack Cust as the primary DH. He could also platoon with Cust if the club wanted to commit to Carp in LF and move someone else back to Tacoma.
This is a minor move; Pena hasn’t been an effective MLB player since 2007, and his eye-popping PCL stats didn’t exactly translate to the National League (see? It’s not just Mariners that do this). If the pick-up blocked someone, it’d be odd. But this is a no-risk, low-reward move that shows that the M’s are going to try their best to put a decent product on the field down the stretch. Pena is basically Carlos Peguero’s 99th percentile projection, but he comes to a team that’s repeatedly used an aging Adam Kennedy at DH, and which splits its clean-up spot between an enfeebled Justin Smoak and a catcher with an OBP in the .260 range. M’s fans are tired of watching the team struggle to score runs, and I’m tired of repeating that a call-up or waiver-wire flotsam HAS to be better than the incumbent in Seattle. So here’s to incremental improvement. Here’s to a guy who generates some excitement. Here’s to the team reminding me more of the 2004 M’s and less of the 2010 M’s, which is somehow, inexplicably, a compliment.
