Dave’s Offseason Plan, 2011 Style
It’s back again – the annual winter tradition where I speculate on some potential moves the M’s could make and put together my own roster for next year. I try to be as realistic as possible, though everyone will have their own opinions on the viability of these moves. I’m sticking to a $93 million budget, about the same amount as what the team spent last year, and will hopefully get in the realm of possibility with the dollars for the arbitration eligible guys and suggested free agents. In the one trade suggested, I’ve tried to fairly compensate the other team with sufficient talent to make the deal work for both sides. As always, the specific players are examples of the types of moves I’d like to see the team make, but there are various alternatives at each position. Oh, and yes, this is your thread for rosterbation. Go nuts.
The Moves
Trade David Aardsma and Jose Lopez to Arizona for OF Cole Gillespie and IF Ryan Roberts
Sign DH Lance Berkman to a 2 year, $12 million contract
Sign LHP Jeff Francis to a 2 year, $10 million contract
Sign IF Nick Punto to a 1 year, $2.5 million contract
Sign LHP Mark Hendrickson to a 1 year, $1 million contract
Sign C Gregg Zaun to a 1 year, $1 million contract
Sign LHP Jamie Moyer to a 1 year, $500,000 contract.
The Rationale
The Mariners are in something of a tough spot. Coming off a miserable season, they have to improve the roster to avoid alienating the fan base stem the erosion of season ticket sales, but with a good Texas team to catch and Anaheim poised to spend a ton of money this winter, contending for the division title in 2011 is probably too much to ask. There’s just too much ground to make up in one winter to get on an even playing field with the Rangers, not to mention trying to overcome an Angels team that could land both Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre this winter.
So, the team needs to make moves that improve the roster, but that also fit into a longer term picture. They’re not in the position to be using prospects in trade to upgrade the major league team, and they don’t have enough money to spend to land a marquee free agent. They also need to make sure that they keep opportunities free for the young talent that is nearly major league ready without putting out a team full of rookies that will lose 100 games again. It’s a tough balancing act, there are pieces that the team can go after that would be able to help the team in both 2011 and beyond. That’s what I’ve tried to emphasize with these moves. Let’s take them one at a time.
Trading David Aardsma is the most obvious move of the winter, and now that they’ve declined Jose Lopez’s option, moving him becomes the second most obvious move. I’ve killed two birds with one stone by trading them away in the same deal. Kevin Towers has made it clear that he has two priorities as the new GM of the Diamondbacks this winter – improve their bullpen and fix the offenses contact problems. Aardsma gives them a fairly low cost closer, while Lopez offers a player who can replace some of Mark Reynolds power with about 150 fewer strikeouts per season, as they are likely to ship out Reynolds this winter. He’d be a decent fit in Seattle if the M’s could unload Chone Figgins, but I don’t see how to make that happen, so for now we just settle on giving Arizona their replacement and their ninth inning guy.
In exchange, the Mariners acquire a couple of useful role players. Gillespie is a classic fourth outfielder in the making, as a guy with no premium tools but decent skills across the board. He draws some walks, has gap power, runs okay, and plays a decent corner outfield, but he’s probably best served as a part-time player. He’d be a perfect fit to share time with Michael Saunders in left and offer some low cost outfield depth with a little bit of upside. Roberts is a utility infielder with a little bit of pop in his bat who had a good 2009 season but flopped last year. Both are cheap role players who fill needs, and given that neither Aardsma nor Lopez have a ton of trade value, this is about what you can expect for the pair. They’re useful pieces that the team needs, and that’s good enough considering what the Mariners are giving up.
They won’t fix the offense, of course, and for the addition of some thump into the line-up, we turn to the free agent market. Lance Berkman is my preferred DH candidate, offering the best package of multiple years of production without a huge cost. He’s going to be 35 next year and is coming off the worst year of his career, but there are reasons to think he’s a good bounce back candidate – his drop in power coincided with a wrist injury that should be healed by next year, and nearly all of his other skills remained equal to his 2009 season when he posted a .386 wOBA.
He wants a full time job and the opportunity to play the field at times, and the Mariners can offer him both, as he could split time with Justin Smoak and hit cleanup on a daily basis. He provides a patient, switch-hitting bat who could take advantage of Safeco’s friendly right field porch, and gives you some depth at first base in case Smoak flops or gets hurt. Going two years may seem risky for a guy his age, but it’s worth the risk to get Berkman in the M’s line-up. If he rebounds, he’ll easily be worth the money and give the team a legitimate cleanup hitter for both 2011 and 2012.
Berkman’s not the only guy we’re handing a two year contract to, however. The other investment I’m making this winter is in the rotation, which is full of question marks once you get past Felix. In order to give the team another quality arm who will love what pitching in Safeco Field will do for his numbers, I turn to Jeff Francis, who was set free by the Rockies when they declined his $7 million option for 2011. Francis has had a reasonably solid career considering he’s spent it pitching in Coors Field, and as a British Columbia kid, would almost certainly welcome the chance to move to a park near his hometown that is paradise on earth for left-handed pitch-to-contact starters.
Francis is, in many ways, similar to Jason Vargas. They’re both soft-tossing lefties who have excellent change-ups and plus command, and while neither is a big strikeout pitcher, they have good enough stuff to miss bats when they have to. Obviously, we’ve seen how well Vargas has flourished in Safeco (like many others before him), and Francis would likely receive a similar benefit from the park. He’s now two years removed from shoulder surgery that cost him all of the 2009 season and limited him to just over 100 innings pitched last year, but his stuff is most of the way back and he actually posted the lowest xFIP of his career last year. He can provide solid innings as a middle of the rotation starter, and should be the kind of starter that the M’s can acquire without paying too high of a price.
The rest of the moves are stopgap fillers for 2011, as the team simply needs to plug some holes while waiting for kids to develop. Nick Punto is a terrific defensive infielder who can play second base until Dustin Ackley is ready, provide an alternative to Jack Wilson when he’s on the DL or traded, and serve as a quality backup infielder when not in the line-up. He’s a slap-hitter with no power, but he’s also legitimately one of the best defenders in the game, and would give Ackley a great example to learn from. His lack of offense will keep his price in the range that the Mariners can afford, and while I’m sure most of you are tired of guys who can’t hit, he’s the best option the team has for the role.
Mark Hendrickson gives the team a cheap quality left-handed setup guy who will be underrated because of an inflated ERA from last year. His peripherals are still fine, and he’s a perfect capable lefty out of the pen. With Baltimore declining his option for $1.2 million, he’s sure to come at a modest cost, and would give Eric Wedge some experience in what would otherwise be a very young bullpen.
Gregg Zaun fills the role of backup catcher, and provides a few benefits – he’s a switch-hitter, has a little bit of power, and as a 40-year-old, he won’t be complaining about playing second fiddle to Adam Moore. There are a number of candidates for the veteran backup catcher role, but Zaun is my favorite and fits in the budget.
We talked about Moyer earlier this week. He’s a perfect fit in the long relief/6th starter role, and if he wants to pitch in MLB next year, this is probably his best bet.
Is it the kind of offseason that will put the Mariners back into the mix for the AL West? No, but I’m not sure that is possible anyway. What it does give the team is a good chance for a .500 season (this roster projects out to about an 80 win team or so) while adding a couple of pieces that could still be useful in 2012. It gives the kids a chance to play while not making the team a disaster if they fail, and maintains most of the financial flexibility the team will get following next year, when Milton Bradley, Carlos Silva, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Jack Wilson come off the books.
The reality is that this team won’t be good again until Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley, and Michael Pineda are ready to be core pieces. That won’t happen this year, but this roster would give the team the ability to let all three get their feet wet in the big leagues while hopefully winning enough games to avoid everyone getting fired again.
Back On Brock And Salk Today
I’m doing a spot with the boys at ESPN 710 at 11:30 today, talking Jose Lopez and potential free agents for the Mariners. We won’t be doing a weekly spot during the offseason, but I’ll pop in from time to time, and we’ll be sure to let you know when they have me on.
Roster Moves
As expected, the M’s declined all three of their options today, letting Erik Bedard and Russ Branyan become free agents and choosing to make Jose Lopez arbitration eligible rather than pay him $4.5 million for 2011.
In addition, they also outrighted Ryan Langerhans, Guillermo Quiroz, Ryan Feierabend, Chris Seddon, and Sean White off the 40 man roster. All five can choose to become free agents or accept the assignment to Tacoma, in which case they would be non-roster invitees to spring training.
Finally, Brian Sweeney was claimed on waivers by the Diamondbacks.
Another Ackley Update
Dave already provided me with a segue below, saying “Dustin Ackley is the future at second base.” So, in the interests of another update, Ackley went 4-for-4 with his third home run for the Peoria Javelinas last night, which was the fourth time in his nine starts since getting back that he managed to get multiple hits. It was the seventh time in that span that he’d reached base safely twice or more. Taking into account the fact that he ended up missing about a week for the busted thumb, you have him with a safely reached streak spanning eleven games, his entire season.
We’ve cautioned people over the years to be skeptical of most AFL performances. The ball carries and teams aren’t inclined to send many of their top pitchers down there. However, after a certain point you can get a little excited, and here are some reasons to like what Ackley is doing. The .417 average is certainly something, but there’s also the fact that fact that he has five more walks than Ks, and that four of his eight Ks came his first two games back. His thirteen walks lead the league, and the two guys immediately behind him have logged seven and eight more at-bats. They don’t have .400 averages either. There’s also the fact that 40% of his hits have gone for extra bases right now. All the slash line categories, average, on-base percentage, slugging, Ackley leads the league. His 1.310 OPS is .125 higher than the next guy.
It probably won’t come as much of a surprise to people that Ackley was named to the Rising Stars roster, along with teammate RHP Josh Fields, who I might have more on later. The only thing the Mariners can find to complain about these days is that he isn’t stealing enough bases, as if he wasn’t doing enough to embarrass pitchers of late. It’s further testament to how far he’s come since this past April. By this coming April, the Mariners may have to come up with some pretty good excuses to keep him off the roster.
Jose Lopez’s Option
As we mentioned yesterday, Thursday is the deadline for options in contracts to be exercised, meaning that the Mariners have one more day to make the call on their options for Erik Bedard, Russell Branyan, and Jose Lopez. Expect all three to be declined – Bedard is an absolute lock to have his $8 million option turned down, while Branyan ($5 million) and Lopez ($4.5 million) are just likely.
However, the Branyan and Lopez situations are different. When the Mariners decline Branyan’s option, he’ll become a free agent, and can negotiate with other clubs beginning on Sunday. Lopez, however, has only accrued five years of service time, one short of the minimum needed to reach free agency. If the Mariners decide to buy out the option year on his contract for $250,000, he will be arbitration eligible, meaning that he’ll still be property of the club. Declining his option will not cut him loose.
If the organization just wants to dump him into the free agent pool, they would have to non-tender him, and that deadline is a month away. So, while I expect the team to pay the buyout on Lopez’s deal on Thursday, he’ll still be a Mariner for a month or so while they gauge the trade market for him and decide what to do with their enigmatic infielder. My guess? They’ll find a trade partner and deal him later in the month for something of marginal value.
Even as a 5th year arbitration eligible guy, Lopez won’t be able to command a big raise coming off the worst year of his career. The system works off historic comparables and prior year salary, and Lopez won’t be able to use either to extract a significant paycheck. He’d get some credit for being an everyday player, I’d estimate that he’s looking at a payout in the $3 to $4 million range, and probably on the lower end of that given his poor 2010 season and $2.3 million salary a year ago. He’d get a raise simply for being a full-time player, but not a big one.
That’s why there’s no real reason for the M’s to pick up Lopez’s option. By paying the buyout, they give him a chance for some trade value, as there are going to be teams who see a 27-year-old infielder who is a year removed from hitting 25 home runs as a guy worth risking $3 million on, especially ones with parks more friendly to right-handed hitters. The Mariners won’t find a team willing to give up much for him, but I’d guess that they’ll have a team or two interested in taking him off their hands once they decline his option.
There is one more option, of course – the Mariners could just keep him, hope he gets off to a better start next year, and then try to trade him next summer if Dustin Ackley is ready to take over at second base. For $3 million or so, they won’t free up a ton of money by getting rid of him, and it’s not like they’ll be able to sign a star to replace him. However, I’m a supporter of Initiative E-5 and Proposition 643 – I just don’t have any interest in watching Lopez play for the Mariners anymore. If you’re not sure why, read this.
Dustin Ackley is the future at second base. Chone Figgins was pretty lousy there last year, and has historically been much better defensively at third. I don’t see the point in forcing Figgins to continue to struggle at a position he’s not very good at for a few months, then ask him to switch positions mid-season. If you bring back Lopez, that’s your plan. I think the team is better off spending $3 million on a middle infielder who can share second base with Ackley once he comes up, spell Jack Wilson at shortstop on the days that his (insert body part here) hurts, and allow Figgins to start 2011 back at third base where he belongs.
I think the team feels the same way, and I doubt we see Lopez on the roster next year. But when they turn down his option on Thursday, they won’t be cutting him loose. That won’t happen for another few weeks.
Hello, Offseason
With the World Series ending just an hour ago, it might seem premature to welcome the Hot Stove League in before the Giants are even done celebrating. However, changes to the timing of the winter schedule means that the offseason really does start tomorrow.
The free agent filing period, which used to last 15 days following the World Series, has been eliminated. Now, teams only have a five day window of exclusivity to negotiate with their own free agents before they hit the open market. That means that we could theoretically have our first free agent signing happen on Sunday.
Decisions on contract options generally have to be exercised by either the team or the player within three days of the end of the World Series, so we’ll hear official news that the M’s have opted to buyout Russ Branyan’s option by Thursday. And yes, I’m pretty sure that’s what’s going to happen. They might bring him back, but they won’t pay $5 million for the right to do so.
At this point, most of the teams not from Texas or San Francisco already have a pretty decent idea of what they want to do this winter. It won’t take them that long to put those plans into action. Due to the accelerated schedule, we could see some legitimate newsworthy transactions next week. With the playoffs over, I will have some more time to devote to the site, and I’ll be knocking out a good amount of stuff over the next few months. It should be fun.
Carl Willis Will Remain M’s Pitching Coach
Ken Davidoff tweeted the news, and there are stories throughout the M’s blogosphere. Willis was Eric Wedge’s pitching coach in Cleveland from 2003-2009, and served as the M’s minor league pitching coordinator until the firing of Rick Adair pushed him to Seattle as the interim PC.
With the hiring of Wedge, this move became all but inevitable. What it means is a bit more elusive. It’s always difficult to disentangle a pitching coach’s contribution from the pitchers themselves. Does Rick Adair get ‘credit’ for Felix’s growth the past few years? How about Jason Vargas? Does he lose ‘points’ for Brandon League’s pitch mix or Ryan Rowland-Smith’s…everything?
After taking over from Adair, the M’s seemed to throw fewer fastballs. Perhaps that’s to be expected after Adair’s fastball-first philosophy, but while the M’s led the league in FB% in 2010 at 63.6%, they dropped a bit in August, then dropped out of the top 10 in FB% in September. The sample’s tiny, it’s affected by the pitchers on the staff (David Aardsma’s not going to turn into a junkballer because he gets a new pitching coach), but it shows he may not be quite as FB-centric as Adair.
Willis drew complaints from some Indians fans after several young pitchers failed to develop under his tutelage. Fausto Carmona is the most-cited piece of evidence for this charge, though pitchers from one-time Mariner Rule 5 pick Jason Davis to Jeremies Sowers and Guthrie failed to impress. Of course, if having pitching prospects fail to develop (or get hurt) was enough to disqualify a pitching coach, there’d be no one would be left to hire. Again, it’s impossible to know how to assign credit. Did Willis help CC Sabathia develop, or was he simply nearby when a 6’8″ freak of nature with great stuff from the left side showed up? Can he be blamed for Jeremy Sowers’ failings, or should we focus more on his abysmal stuff?
In the end, there’s very little evidence that pitching coaches can help improve a staff’s performance. They may exert tremendous influence over one or two pitchers, but it’s basically impossible to say if Willis will have any impact on the M’s in 2011. That won’t keep people from trying, but beware of pundits claiming that this move is ‘proof’ of anything.
Bring Back Jamie Moyer
Jamie Moyer turns 48 in a couple of weeks. He’s a free agent, and Phillies GM Ruben Amaro announced that they’re not going to re-sign him for 2011. Given his age and the fact that he ended the season on the disabled list with a sprained elbow, he’s unlikely to get many offers this winter – so the Mariners should make him one.
This isn’t a nostalgic suggestion, where they bring Moyer back for one last hurrah at Safeco Field. No, it’s because Jamie Moyer can still pitch. A quick comparison:
Jamie Moyer, 2010: 1.61 BB/9, 5.08 K/9, 44.1% GB%, 4.49 xFIP
Doug Fister, 2010: 1.68 BB/9, 4.89 K/9, 47.1% GB%, 4.27 xFIP
Yes, Moyer pitched in the National League, so you’d have to adjust his numbers accordingly, but the no-walks, pitch-to-contact, keep-hitters-off-balance skillset still works. Moyer’s been defying expectations for a couple of decades now, and there’s no real evidence that he’s any more finished as a major league pitcher now than he was a year ago. In fact, his xFIP this year was actually the lowest he’s posted in a season since 2002.
The Mariners are going to run Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, and likely Michael Pineda out in their rotation behind Felix Hernandez. They’re going to need a guy on the roster who can step into the rotation when one of them falters. Moyer, who took full advantage of Safeco Field the last time he was a Mariner, could be an effective innings sponge whose skills are perfectly suited for the park. He’ll cost next to nothing, and would offer the kind of veteran experience that the pitching staff isn’t likely to have much of, if you’re into that sort of thing.
Even in a rebuilding year, you need to have some stopgaps around to fill voids so you’re not thrusting kids into roles they’re not ready for. That is especially true on the pitching staff – you don’t want to have to rush someone up from Tacoma when a member of the rotation needs a breather, and given the guys that will follow Felix next year, you can count on needing extra starters throughout the year. Just from a baseball perspective, he provides a lot of what this team needs to acquire this winter, and he’ll do so for next to no cost.
Toss in the intangible stuff that we can’t really measure, and this should be a move supported by all sides. Bring Jamie Moyer back to Seattle.
Winter League Update (and yet more odds and ends)
As you know, the M’s have seven prospects currently suiting up for the Peoria Javelinas in the Arizona Fall League. And as you’re no doubt well aware, they’ve got several more playing in Caribbean leagues in Venezuela and the Dominican Republic. JY’s keeping track of all of them in his weekly winter league wraps at Mariners Minors, so you’ve probably already heard about Dustin Ackley’s solid line (capped by a game this week in which he drew 5 walks) and Josh Lueke’s 7 Ks and 0 BBs in 6 innings.
Two pitchers who don’t get quite as much attention are Tom Wilhemsen and Maikel Cleto.
1) The former’s generally seen as the feel-good story of the system, while the latter’s high on the list of the biggest disappointments. Wilhelmsen famously retired from baseball at 20 after two drug suspensions and has spent years bartending and travelling before getting a tryout with the M’s (he’d been drafted by Zduriencik’s Brewers in 2002) and enjoying success in Everett and Clinton this year. I was excited to see if the velocity he had as a teenager was still with him, or if it was a casualty of aging and hard living.
In his initial outing for Peoria, his fastball sat between 93-95 MPH and his curve was right around 80 MPH. Just weeks after throwing 74 innings in his first season since 2003, Wilhelmsen was able to generate plus velocity – velo on par with Lueke or Josh Fields. However, that velocity didn’t stick around. Wilhelmsen last pitched on Monday, and sat 90-92 with his FB and 75-77 with his curve. On its own, there’s nothing particularly worrisome about this. He’s been just as effective, and given the sample, the variance may not mean anything. Still, it’s something to watch given that we just don’t have many comparable pitchers to look at. What should we *expect* velocity to do in a postseason league for a pitcher in his first year back after five years slinging Mai Tais in Tucson?
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Quick Update
I know the site has been thin on content lately – sorry about that. As you can probably guess, I’m pretty busy with the playoff coverage over at FanGraphs, and I’ve got a few other things going on as well that have kept me from being able to keep the site humming along. This isn’t a permanent situation, however, and I expect to have more time to devote to the site soon, and I have a nice little queue of articles to knock out.
That said, I thought it might be a good idea to see what you guys would like to see posted over the next few months. Yes, there’s an Offseason Plan post coming, and we’ll definitely cover all the moves the M’s make throughout the offseason. However, I don’t want to limit the site to just roster speculation posts, and am open to other kinds of things if there’s interest.
So, consider this something of a suggestion thread. If there’s something you’d like to see us write up this winter, leave it in the comments, and we’ll see what we can do.
Also, I’ll be liveblogging a decent amount of the World Series games over at FanGraphs, if you’re into that sort of thing.