Game 161, A’s at Mariners
Pauley vs Anderson 7:10 pm
Locking up the #2 pick proved to be rather easy last night. Of course, it also meant that we got blown out on Fan Appreciation Night. Indeed, shut out, tying the Indians for the AL lead. We could claim that lead all for ourselves tonight. It would be something.
In more positive news on the larger scale, you have the emergence of David Pauley as some kind of major league pitcher. I don’t know that I’d qualify that as great news for us in particular, but great news for him certainly. Awful teams have that benefit of giving opportunities to guys otherwise on the fringe, and if they establish themselves, they can go on to have decent little careers in the big leagues. Pauley probably isn’t part of the team’s long-term plans. Despite an ERA under four this season, he has a tRA of 5.32 as a starter. His Ks aren’t impressive and he’s walked a few too many. But still, he’s living the dream and getting the paycheck. That’s nice.
Since the topic interests me, at least, I’ll add that in the game notes for today, they mention that the full-season affiliates for the M’s led the minor leagues with 2956 runs, 527 home runs, a .439 slugging percentage, and a .782 OPS. Things are looking up.
Speaking of things that are up (up in the air, that is), Death to Flying Things has gone the entire season without making an error. Assuming that continues, he’ll be the first Mariners outfielder to end a season with a perfect fielding percentage, and he would set the MLB record for most total chances in a season without an error.
This was more than I thought was possible to write about a team that has a chance to lose its hundredth game today.
RF Ichiro!
2B Figgins
DH Gutierrez
1B Smoak
C Moore
3B Mangini
CF Halman
LF Saunders
SS Jo. Wilson
Game 160, A’s at Mariners
French vs Cahill, 7:10 pm.
We’ve entered the stage where a lot of what’s going on is just bookkeeping. The Mariners are almost certainly going to pick #2. Aardsma and Branyan are likely out for the rest of the season. Felix won’t be going in the final game and instead we’ll get Ryan Rowland-Smith, for which there will be a substantial enthusiasm gap. The ERA title goes to Felix since Buchholz won’t be pitching.
A few new bits of info include that Pineda is with the team, basically as a spectator, and that Shawn Kelley’s surgery wasn’t as bad as expected. How good it will be is still up in the air, but the fact alone that he didn’t end up needing Tommy John a second time should be positive news for our bullpen future. He’s had a rough first couple of years in the majors and hopefully will get on track soon enough.
RF Ichiro!
2B Figgins
DH Gutierrez
1B Smoak
LF Langerhans
C Bard
CF Saunders
3B Mangini
SS Jo. Wilson
Because We Are Starving For Good News
Justin Smoak this week:
10 for 21, 1 2B, 3 HR, 4 BB, 4 K, .476/.560/.952
When he came over from Texas, Smoak was overly aggressive, chased pitches out of the strike zone, and generally not anything like the hitter he had been in the minors. Since coming back to the big leagues, he’s been more patient and focused on swinging at pitches he can do something with. This is the kind of hitter he can be, though obviously he won’t hit this well on a regular basis.
The sample is way too small to mean anything, but it’s nice to see Smoak actually showing the skills he’s demonstrated at every step of his career before the big leagues. The power and patience combination should allow him to be one of the team’s best hitters – he just has to use both in order to make the package work.
Game 159, A’s at Mariners
Fister vs Gonzalez, 7:10 pm.
The final series of the year begins with Doug Fister taking the hill. I don’t think anyone thought he’d be able to pitch this well with his collection of mediocre stuff, but he threw enough strikes to make it work. The margin for error on guys like this is pretty small, so he might not be able to repeat this kind of season going forward, but 2010 can’t be considered anything other than a big success for Fister.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Smoak, 1B
Moore, C
Mangini, 3B
Halman, LF
Saunders, DH
Josh Wilson, SS
Brock and Salk Day
My new post is up over at Brock and Salk’s blog, and it deals with why, in the end, the Cy Young award doesn’t really matter.
Also, I’ll be on with ESPN 710 with the boys at 11:30.
Game 158, Mariners at Rangers
Vargas vs Harden, 11:05 am.
As Jason Vargas takes the mound for the final time this year, lets take a quick look at his “breakout” year compared to last year.
2009 – 2.36 BB/9, 5.30 K/9, 36.6% GB%, 12.7% HR/FB%, .286 BABIP, 70.2% LOB%
2010 – 2.56 BB/9, 5.50 K/9, 36.3% GB%, 6.4% HR/FB%, .285 BABIP, 71.6% LOB%
In the three main areas that a pitcher can control, Vargas was nearly identical in both years. He even got the same amount of outs on balls in play, which often fluctuates quite a bit from year to year. The only difference between last year’s Vargas and this year’s Vargas in terms of results? How often his flyballs went over the wall. He gave up just two additional home runs while allowing an extra 157 flyballs.
He was better than his ERA indicated last year. He’s not as good as it indicates this year. He’s a solid back-end starter who benefits greatly from Safeco Field, but don’t take any comments about his breakout too seriously. He’s the same guy he was a year ago, just with better luck.
A Post For A King
This season was horrible. You were better than ever.
Thanks for everything, Felix.
Oh, and Mr. Brown – the fans deserve a chance to say thanks on the last day of the season. One inning on Sunday won’t kill him. Let him have the standing ovation. It will be a good moment in a season that had none.
Game 157, Mariners at Rangers
Hernandez vs Feldman, 5:05 pm.
Happy Felix Day, maybe for the last time this year.
The Mariners won’t say if Felix will pitch on Sunday, which would be his last scheduled start of the season. He’s thrown 241 innings already, and they don’t want to burn out their franchise player in a game that doesn’t mean anything. They haven’t said that they won’t let him pitcher, either, however, so it seems like they’re hoping that the team can get him a win tonight, he can wrap up the Cy Young award with a dominating performance, and they can send him out on a high note.
And yes, I think that if Felix dominates the Rangers tonight, he’ll basically wrap-up the Cy Young award. The conversation about the value of wins has gone on for over a month now, and besides the oldest of the old school, pretty much everyone has seemingly come around on how flawed the number is. If Felix shuts down the Rangers tonight, on the road, and gets his ERA below 2.30 while throwing nearly 250 innings, he’s going to get a lot of votes. Enough votes to win the award, I think.
And he’s earned it. Over the last two years, King Felix has been the best pitcher in the American League. He deserves a trophy.
Armstrong Gives Jack Z A Vote Of Confidence
Sort of.
In an article written by Ken Rosenthal, Armstrong said that he’s “not thinking about changing the general manager at all.” Rosenthal’s headline, “Mariners to retain Zduriencik as GM” is more declarative, and its likely that Rosenthal has some extra information that wasn’t quotable that led him to making that kind of statement. The piece reads as confirmed news, in fact, where Rosenthal is essentially reporting that Zduriencik won’t be fired as factual. He has more sources in baseball than anyone else, and his reports are almost always correct, so we can probably expect that the team will not shake up the front office this winter.
That said, there’s a reason that Rosenthal had to write this story in the first place. Ever since the Cliff Lee trade, rumors have been swirling that Jack was on thin ice with upper management, and I know quite a few people in the game who didn’t think he’d survive this. The dreaded vote of confidence is often a two-edged sword, as it essentially means that they’re not firing him right now, but if it wasn’t a possibility, they wouldn’t have had to issue the statement in the first place.
I’m sure Jack knows that his rope is not as long as it was last winter. He won’t survive another disastrous season. If the 2011 team isn’t significantly improved, he will almost certainly lose his job. They don’t necessarily have to win the division, but they can’t be terrible again. He’ll need to be able to point to the success of some good young players and new acquisitions as evidence that the team is going in the right direction. Even if catching Texas next year may be unrealistic, putting a respectable team on the field is not. Just like in his first season, he’ll have to balance building for the future with putting out a big league product that fans will enjoy watching.
Only now, he’ll have to do it without a safety net. And we’ll have to see how that affects the decision making process this winter. Most of us think next year is a non-contending year with a focus on young players, and the team should prioritize building for the future, but Jack probably needs the team to finish around .500 or better to keep his job. That’s a factor, even if just a subconscious one. Will he be willing to take risks on guys with little or no track record, knowing that if they don’t perform, he’s out? I don’t know. We’ll find out, I guess.
Update: Larry Stone gets confirmation that Jack will return, and a few additional quotes, including this one: “In Jack we trust — isn’t that what the button says?”
Game 156, Mariners at Rangers
Pauley vs Wilson, 5:10 pm.
A week left until our long national nightmare is over. For tonight, we (mostly) get the kids. Huzzah.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Lopez, DH
Gutierrez, CF
Smoak, 1B
Moore, C
Mangini, 3B
Halman, LF
Josh Wilson, SS