The Inevitable Prince Fielder Rumors
Figure we might as well get this out of the way early – yesterday, Prince Fielder played what is probably his final home game in Milwaukee. The Brewers are pretty likely to move their first baseman this winter, as he only has one year left before he becomes a free agent, and Scott Boras is looking for a huge paycheck for the slugger, having already rejected an offer reported to be worth $100 million over five years. Fielder won’t exactly be a low cost bargain next year, either, as his final arbitration payout will probably come in a little north of $15 million for 2011. Given his cost and the fact that he’s going to sign elsewhere in a year, the Brewers pretty much have to shop him this winter.
And so, inevitably, he’ll be linked to the Mariners. Jack Zduriencik drafted Fielder when he was the Brewers scouting director, so there’s history between the two. The Mariners will obviously be in the market for some offense this winter, and Fielder will be one of the best hitters available. They have an opening at DH, and he could even provide some insurance at first base in case Justin Smoak gets injured or fails to pan out. His left-handed power would play well in Safeco, and he’d give the team a legitimate “big bat” that the traditional fan base has been craving for several years. There are enough reasons to think it makes sense to get the rumor mill churning, and churn it will this winter.
However, there are quite a few reasons it doesn’t make sense, either, and we need to keep those in mind when we read the speculation that will come over the next month or two.
The obvious problem is cost. At $15+ million for 2011, the Mariners might not even have room in the budget to bring him in. If they expanded the budget a bit (not a given by any stretch of the imagination), traded David Aardsma, and filled out the roster with league minimum guys, they might be able to make it work, but even then, it would be tight. He’d have to be the only significant salary addition the club made all winter, and they might have to shed some money beyond just Aardsma to make it work. Given that guys like Jack Wilson and Chone Figgins won’t be easy to move, that’s a pretty big challenge.
Beyond just next year, however, there’s the issue with Fielder’s asking price and his actual value. Yes, he’s a good hitter, but he’s not a legitimate superstar that is worthy of the contract that he’s asking for. He’s basically Matt Holliday without any defensive value or baserunning skills, more of a +4 win player than one of the game’s elite performers. The rejection of a 5/100 offer when he was 2 years away from free agency shows that they’re not interested in giving out any kinds of discounts. Boras has his eye on Ryan Howard’s ridiculous 5 year, $125 million contract, and will likely aim to come out above that, given that Fielder is the same kind of player, only younger.
He’s just not worth that kind of money. There’s no way the Mariners should be interested in paying $20+ million a year for Fielder in 2012 and beyond, especially as he’s likely to end up as a DH sooner than later, and guys with his body type have traditionally aged poorly. If Boras is really set on getting that kind of money for his client, teams in the market to trade for him this winter will almost certainly have to see him as a one year rental. And the Mariners just shouldn’t be making that kind of short term move.
Fielder would make the team better, but by himself, he’s not nearly enough. While the organization could use a bat like Prince Fielder in the line-up, they can’t afford to put all their eggs in his overweight basket, especially considering how much money he’ll want after next year. There will be other, more cost effective ways for the Mariners to bring in a DH this winter. Don’t just assume that it’s a fit just because Jack Z drafted him.
I Think It Might Be Love At First Sight
Dan Cortes, pitch by pitch, today:
Fastball, 95, strike one
Fastball, 95, strike two
Fastball, 97, ball one
Fastball, 96, strikeout
Fastball, 98, ball one
Slider, 84, strike one
Fastball, 96, ball two
Fastball, 96, strike two
Fastball, 97, strikeout
Slider, 85, ball one
Fastball, 97, strike one
Fastball, 97, strike two
Slider, 86, ball two
Fastball, 97, foul
Fastball, 98, strikeout
He’s pretty good.
Game 155, Mariners At Rays
French vs Shields, 10:40 am.
James Shields, my pre-season pick for the Cy Young, has given up 33 home runs this year, most in the American League. Thus, despite a pretty sweet 3.70 xFIP, his ERA is 4.99. He’s significantly better than that mark might tell you, and so you shouldn’t be surprised when he mows down the M’s today. He’s actually one of the best pitchers in the league.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Lopez, DH
Gutierrez, CF
Smoak, 1B
Mangini, 3B
Bard, C
Halman, LF
Josh Wilson, SS
Game 154, Mariners at Rays
Fister vs Garza, 4:10 pm.
You know what would be nice? Seeing Justin Smoak get a couple of hits, draw a couple of walks, and generally remind us all that he can hit. That won’t happen today, though, because he’s not playing. Apparently, we haven’t seen enough Casey Kotchman this year. Oh, and Michael Saunders isn’t playing either, even though there’s an RHP on the mound. Yup.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Lopez, 3B
Gutierrez, CF
Kotchman, 1B
Moore, C
Mangini, DH
Carp, LF (not kidding)
Josh Wilson, SS
Welcome To The Big Leagues, Dan Cortes
Fastball, 98, strike one.
Fastball, 96, strike two.
Fastball, 96, groundout.
Fastball, 98, strike one.
Fastball, 96, ball one.
Slider, 87, strike two.
Fastball, 97, ball two.
Slider, 85, strike three.
Fastball, 98, groundout.
Stay a while, won’t you?
Game 153, Mariners At Rays
Vargas vs Niemann, 4:10 pm.
Jeff Niemann has been awful since coming off the DL a month ago, giving up more runs than innings pitched. I’m guessing that changes tonight.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Lopez, DH
Gutierrez, CF
Smoak, 1B
Moore, C
Saunders, LF
Tuiasosopo, 3B
Josh Wilson, SS
Brock And Salk Day
I’ll be doing my radio spot with Brock and Salk at 11:30 today on ESPN 710.
Also, my latest post is now up at their blog, and deals with whether Felix Hernandez is on the verge of passing Randy Johnson as the best pitcher in franchise history.
Game 152, Mariners At Blue Jays
Hernandez vs Hill, 9:37 am.
Happy Felix Day.
For the second start in a row, I have to miss Felix, because I brilliantly scheduled a meeting for this afternoon. I should have checked the Felix calendar first.
Game 151, Mariners at Blue Jays
Pauley vs Drabek, 4:07 pm.
Let’s just get right to the line-up, because, well, you’ll see.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
LOPEZ, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Carp, DH
Bard, C
Langerhans, LF
Saunders, CF
Woodward, SS
More Call-Ups
With a hat tip to Ryan Divish, we have the rest of the M’s call-ups now that the Rainiers season is officially over: Mike Carp, Greg Halman, Matt Mangini, and Anthony Varvaro. Of the four, only Mangini was not on the 40 man roster, so they’ll have to move either Shawn Kelley, Jack Wilson, or Milton Bradley to the 60 day DL to make room for him.
The name most conspicuous by his absence? Josh Lueke. You can bet the farm that this is not a baseball decision, but a PR one. I’ve been told by several people in the game that they don’t think Lueke will ever pitch for the Mariners, and this serves as some confirmation of that speculation. We’ll see, but the smart money seems to lean towards Lueke getting traded this winter.