Griffey’s incentives
The Mariners didn’t sign Griffey just to bring the fans back – they needed a DH, same as they have for the past three years – but they nevertheless wanted Griffey in part to help sustain casual fan interest while the front office cleaned up the mess from the previous regime. It’s in his contract, which has a bunch of incentives tied to combinations of playing time and attendance.
So how’s he doing? Well, on the one hand, he couldn’t even sell out his own bobblehead night, despite (predictably) homering and (unpredictably) the team coming back on the Langerhans walkoff. On the other hand, the game was practically a sellout and the best gate since Opening Day, and if we could know in advance which would be the exciting games to see, let’s just say we would have had USSM at Safeco on Friday night instead of Saturday.
But assuming you can’t have Griffey bobbleheads every night, is he having the desired impact on attendance otherwise? These questions are always a bit tricky, since it’s affected by things like the day of the week, whether school’s out, or who the opposing team is. Conveniently, to reduce the variables we have to account for, guess who we played the second weekend in August last year. That’s right, the Rays. It was a four-game series then, but to get a reasonable comparison I’m throwing out the Thursday game from 2008 and the Griffey promotion this year.
In 2008:
Friday – 30,220
Saturday – 27,905
Sunday – 30,336
2009:
Saturday – 28,239
Sunday – 28,490
That’s about 1,000 fewer people on average, which pretty well tracks how attendance has been most of the year. I penciled out rough guesses for the rest of the year, as I’m sure the team is doing in a more sophisticated way. The average shouldn’t change much, but there are still the two Yankees series that should draw crowds, and overall the total’s likely going to be between 2.25 and 2.3 million. Of course, after 101 losses an attendance dropoff is to be expected the next year, and arguably Griffey did his job to stave off a worse decline – the trendline since 2002 has been to lose about 300,000 a year except for Bavasi’s fluke contention year in 2007, which would have put you right at 2 million this year. That’s also where his incentives start, sensibly enough.
The other part of the formula is plate appearances, where Griffey is on a pace for 493 and the incentives top out at 500. There are also some attendance bonuses tied to merely being on the roster on July 31 and at the end of the season, but those start at 2.35 million so they shouldn’t come into play, except possibly in a scenario I’ll get to. Anyway, let’s break it down.
- 2 million, 400 PAs, $500K – the breakdown’s more detailed, but consider this earned
- 450 and 500 PAs, $250K each (regardless of attendance) – on track for the first, not the second; they might play him more down the stretch, though
- 2.1-2.3 million, 300-500 PAs, $1 million total – these are incremental, each additional 50 PAs and 50,000 fans in combination is worth $200K; right now we’re looking at $800K for 2.25 million and 450 PAs, and falling short on the last set
- Above 2.3 million, each additional 50,000 at the gate is worth $50K – unlikely
- Above 2.6 million, the same increments are worth $100K apiece up to 3 million – not going to make those numbers unless every game the rest of the season sells out
There were some award bonuses in the contract, All-Star and MVP and stuff like that, that bring the maximum payout to $5 million, but those aren’t happening. Adding in the $2 million base, Griffey stands to cost the Mariners $3.55 million right now. With a little effort on his part, Griffey could pull in $4 million, which you may recall is exactly what we paid Carl Everett.
How can Griffey put in more effort if his incentives depend on attendance, you may ask? Easy – sometime in the next few weeks, announce that he’s retiring at the end of the season. Once this officially turns into a farewell tour, that should bring the wave of nostalgic fans through the turnstiles one more time to get their final looks, and of course he’ll need to play all the time so they can see him. That could push him over the hump for 500 PAs and 2.3 million.
Not that Griffey needs that extra money, or would admit that he’s motivated by it, and he’d probably be the same Ichiro-tickling good clubhouse guy regardless. But these things do matter to the franchise and its connection with the public. That’s why, even ignoring unquantifiable team chemistry, he’s the one guy along with Ichiro who has value to the Mariners outside of direct on-field performance (maybe someday Felix too, but I’d wait on that). And that’s why Griffey’s been worth what he’s being paid this year. If the performance hasn’t been spectacular, neither was the cost, and with the alternatives unappetizing, why not pick the snack that’s tasty even if it’s not any more nutritious? There’s a limit to this approach, though – when it becomes actively detrimental to building a winning roster, you can’t indulge anymore.
You know and I know that this should be it for Griffey. Casual fans may still believe in the possibility he might be back next year. Zduriencik is no doubt anticipating possible 2010 roster scenarios already, which ought not to include Griffey at DH. That means having the delicate conversation about it now, to let Griffey decide how he wants to go out. So Junior, if you’re still planning to retire as a Mariner, just let us know.
USSM Goes To Safeco Recap
It was awesome.
Okay, you probably wanted more details than that. So, let’s see what I can remember off the top of my head before I hand the comments over to those of you who made it to Saturday night’s shindig to fill in the blanks.
We packed out the Ellis Pavilion. I don’t think we could have fit another soul in there. The M’s event staff did a a great job with setup, though – I would have never believed that we could get 300 people into that room and have everyone be able to see/hear without any problems. The M’s, as a whole, were tremendous in helping put the whole thing together.
I think Jack and Tony better get used to long standing ovations when they come to these things.
You guys did a really good job with the questions. They were great.
Stuff you guys care about that Jack/Tony said at the event, as best as I can remember and paraphrase:
Settle in for the Jack Wilson era – he’s here for the next two or three years. This was not a stop-gap move, and Jack is a huge fan of what he brings to the team. There just isn’t much out there in the way of talent at SS to be had, and they thought Wilson could help them now and going forward.
Blengino’s been on Zduriencik to acquire Ian Snell for a couple of years now. They think that, while he’s a risk, he fits into the pattern of players they’ve been targeting in other deals – young, able to help immediately, and under club control for 3+ years.
The massive importation of left-handers isn’t an accident. They realize the park is really friendly to lefties and much less so than righties. When they were looking at the roster they inherited, they couldn’t believe how badly it was suited to Safeco Field. They’re setting out to fix that, obviously.
They believe in the value of defense, especially in premium spots, but also saw that as the best path to success in 2009. They realized that there was just no way they were going to be able to fix the problems with the offense and pitching staff in one off-season, but due to defense being cheap, they thought they could make the defense a strength of the team very quickly. The strong emphasis on defense is partially about the availability of wins. As Blengino said “we’ll take wins wherever we can get them”. If the market shifts and defense becomes more highly valued, or better hitters become available, expect to see the M’s be more willing to bring in less proficient glove guys.
Yuniesky Betancourt wasn’t their favorite guy ever.
Blengino thinks Mike Cameron is massively underrated. We obviously agree – we’ve been raving about Cameron for something like 10 years now.
Langerhans was the fruit of a suggestion from Tom Tango. Thanks, Tom – he’s awesome.
The timing of Saunders call-up; they reached a point where everyone who saw him play felt he was ready, and so even with four LHPs and Roy Halladay on the schedule, they brought him up because they thought he was able to help the club. Jack’s been extremely impressed so far, and you get the feeling that Saunders’ early play has helped him cement his spot as the team’s 2010 left fielder.
Brandon Morrow – the yo-yo situation with the way his season has gone was as frustrating for them as it was for us. You could tell that Jack wanted to get his side of the Morrow thing out there, as he explained his view of the back-and-forth without anyone even asking about him specifically. They see him as a big part of their 2010 rotation.
Phillippe Aumont – Blengino had seen him extensively pre-draft and always felt he was a reliever. Everyone in the organization felt that his future was in the bullpen, so while they agreed that it was weird to limit a 20-year-old to relief work, they felt like he was a unique situation and that he’s got a chance to be a shut down, end of game closer very soon. They reserve the right to change their minds in the future, but they certainly didn’t talk like guys who saw him as a major league quality starting pitcher.
Jack is 100% dead set on winning a World Series in Seattle. If you didn’t like anything else he said (well, first off, you’re crazy), you had to be thrilled to see the remarkable dedication he has to that singular goal. The M’s are in very, very good hands.
DMZ: I’ll quickly add a couple of things. One, they’re a great comedy team, and you can see how easily they work together and trust each other. And you also see one of the fundamental differences in that and in Bavasi’s approach. Bavasi talked about wanting all the information, and took a step with hiring a stats guy to consult. Zduriencik doesn’t just want someone to run some historical minor-league valuations, or look at list of players they can pick as part of a larger, horrible trade — they brought in Langerhans on the recommendation of their analysis people, validated by their scouts, and the guy who’s in charge of the baseball analysis is one of Zduriencik’s hands, and has been working closely with him for ages.
Which reminds me — Tony’s been pushing Gutierrez on Jack for years. Every time Gutierrez makes a great play, give a small thanks to Tony. And to Jack for listening.
Also, on Wakamatsu, they’re big fans of what he and the staff are doing in creating a winning atmosphere which, in turn, allows them to be confident about bringing on players (like Snell, say) where they think a change of organization might do them good. Obviously, I’ve been a continual skeptic of chemistry as a valuation metric (see my howl about Shelton/Sweeney) but if there’s a way to make it into something that allows them to attract and retain the kind of player they want, I’m entirely willing to give it a chance.
So yeah. I don’t know heading into this off-season if there was (or could have been) a tougher sell on the team than me, and here I am, wondering if maybe they’re figuring out a way to build a clubhouse into a recruiting advantage. I’m a happy dude, and I hope everyone understands why.
Minor League Wrap (8/3-9/09)
This week was one in which the hitters were actually hitting in most cases and the pitchers threw three complete game shutouts, which we’re lucky to see in a half a season let alone a week. So, I have quite a bit more to talk about this time than I have in the recent past.
To the jump!
Read more
Game 111, Rays at Mariners
Kazmir v RRS. DH-0 Sweeney makes another baffling appearance… and at #4 in the order. Also, a Johjima sighting!
Game 110, Rays at Mariners
Shields vs. Snell, 7:10.
For those who weren’t able to join us for the event tonight, I’m queueing this up early, so no lineups yet. Behave yourselves.
USSM Goes To Safeco, Final Reminder
We’re about seven hours from the USSM event at Safeco tonight. Last minute details.
Suggested gathering time is 5 pm outside the home plate gate at Safeco Field. Just north of that gate, there will be a sandwich board with an arrow pointing to the door you will use for entrance to the pre-game Q&A. The event starts at 5:15, and it will take a little while to get everyone in the room, so try to get there a few minutes early if you can. Make sure you have your tickets, obviously.
Also, no audio/video recording will be allowed. If you were planning on bringing a device that allowed you to record the event, don’t. We’ll take it away from you and give it back after the Q&A is over if you bring it, but don’t make us hassle with that – just leave it at home.
Last minute questions, drop them in the thread, and we’ll try to answer them before we take off for the park.
Game 109, Rays at Mariners
FELIX DAYYYYYYY!
7:05, vs Niemann.
More or less std Bloomquist II-catching lineup.
Also, from Baker, Bedard’s toast. Nice writeup here.
Fister replaces Vargas
As was noted in various quarters last night, Doug Fister was pulled after one inning from his start for the Rainiers. Initially it seemed like this might be because Vargas was simultaneously getting shelled, so the team thought it would need an emergency arm to spell the bullpen. So when Wakamatsu kept Vargas out there for 7 innings, the urgency seemed to have passed.
Today, however, it turns out that Fister is being brought up anyway, with Vargas being optioned to Tacoma. Fister, a 7th-round pick in 2006, is tall but relies more on good command (just 11 walks this year) than velocity. As a righthanded groundball pitcher instead of a flyball lefty, he’s basically the opposite of the guys currently filling out the rotation. Nevertheless, he’ll likely have a similar career as a back-end starter or long reliever, although we don’t know yet in which capacity he’s to be used in the immediate future.
Griffey, comparatively
In comments here, people sometimes compare Griffey to other recent DH occupants. So!
Griffey 2009, in 329 PA: .221/.331/.393
Vidro 2008, in 330 PA: .234/.274/.338 (and then was released)
Everett 2006, in 343 PA: .227/.297/.360 (and then was released)
See? It could be a lot worse.
Report From Burlington
Last night, the M’s Appalachian league team from Pulaski squared off against the Burlington Royals in a double-header. With a chance to catch a couple of games at once, I headed over to the park to watch Gabriel Noriega, Jharmidy De Jesus, and Steve Baron and get a first hand look at some of the M’s younger prospects.
Noriega can really play shortstop. This isn’t news – all the scouting reports on him say the same thing. The kid can pick it. How he’s hit three home runs though, is beyond me – the swing isn’t conducive to power at all, and he’s probably 160 pounds with absolutely no upper body strength. The bat is still a big question mark for me, but the glove is legit.
Baron… read above. His footwork behind the plate was impressive, he’s got a really good catch-and-release, strong arm – the physical tools for him to be a top notch defensive catcher are there. But man, the swing… it needs to be overhauled. He won’t hit without a lot of work. He’s going to have to put in a ton of time improving his offensive game, because his glove is way ahead of his bat right now.
The pleasant surprise of the day was LHP Ricky Ortiz, a 21-year-old whose lower half probably weighs 200 pounds. He’s not going to win any sprint contests, but he’s got a decent fastball (90-92), a curve that showed good break, and good command of both pitches for his level of experience. He can move the fastball in an out, and he throws the breaking ball to both righties and lefties – it’s a good second pitch.
Overall, though, one guy impressed more than the rest. Clearly, the best guy I saw in Burlington was Carmen Fusco. He’s a little old for the league, at 56, but he’s got the kind of make-up that you just can’t teach. It’s pretty rare to find a five tool director of pro scouting, but Fusco oozes the confidence of an Italian and matches it with a keen eye and a sharp wit, plus the endurance of a true warrior. He’s easily the most promising Italian pro scouting director I’ve seen in the Appy League – I think he could be going places. Keep an eye on that Fusco kid – he’s a good one.