Mike Fontenot
Over the last week or so, the trade rumors have focused on Yuniesky Betancourt, but if the Mariners are going to fix their overly RH line-up problem, making a move at second base is probably a more realistic scenario. It’s a lot harder to find a shortstop who can hit from the left side than it is to find a second baseman who can do the same, after all. In fact, there’s a left-handed second baseman who could potentially be had at the moment who I would strongly suggest the Mariners pursue.
His name is Mike Fontenot. You might look at his .208/.299/.368 performance this season and say “great, just what this team needs, another guy who isn’t hitting”, but I’d suggest you look beyond his overall line. Here are his performances in the core skill categories from last year and this year.
2008/2009
BB%: 12.3%, 11.3%
K%: 21.0%, 21.6%
ISO: .210, .160
His walk and strikeout rates are essentially unchaged, and while his power has taken a step back, it’s still well above average. His poor performance is driven entirely by a swing from a .355 batting average on balls in play last year to a .226 mark this year. BABIP isn’t as luck driven for hitters as it is for pitchers, but it is extremely inconsistent, especially in small samples. Fontenot wasn’t going to sustain last year’s mark, but he also isn’t going to keep hitting balls right at fielders like he is currently. If you believe his true talent BABIP is around .300 (like I do), then he would project to hit something like .260/.340/.420 over the rest of the season.
Not only would that performance make him one of the team’s better hitters, but he’s also an absolutely perfect fit for this team and Safeco Field. The M’s badly need a hitter or three who can hit right-handed pitching, and Fontenot excels against RHPs (career .283/.368/.460 mark against them). Most of his power lies in pulling the ball to right field, as well – check out his HR location patterns for last year, via Hit Tracker Online.
Talk about a guy who could take advantage of Safeco’s short porch down the right field line, and wouldn’t be nearly as affected by the cavernous left-center field area. You could actually expect Safeco to help Fontenot, not hurt him, unlike what it currently does to most of the roster.
He wouldn’t just improve the club’s offense, either. Unlike our current second baseman, Fontenot can actually play defense. In 1100 major league innings at second base, he’s posted a UZR of +9.9, which rates out as +14 runs per 150 games. It’s a small sample of data, so we’d have to regress our expectations back more towards something like a +5 defender going forward, but +5 defense at second base would be a significant upgrade over what we’re getting from Lopez right now. Toss in an easy opportunity to get Cedeno some at-bats against LHPs, and the team would be able to take a solid step forward on both sides of the field by acquiring Fontenot.
Ideally, you’d be able to convince the Cubs to swap Fontenot for Lopez, who would give them a “proven” second baseman who can play everyday, something they’re not convinced of when it comes to Fontenot. However, even if they aren’t big Lopez fans, the M’s would be wise to try to work out a deal for Fontenot before his luck starts to turn and the Cubbies decide to hang onto their 28-year-old left-handed infielder with power and defensive skills. Get creative if you have to – involve a third team that might want Lopez (the Minnesota Twins, for instance) and move some players around to make it work for everyone.
Fontenot is exactly the kind of player the M’s should be trying to acquire right now. He helps the team both now and in the future, fitting the player type the roster is badly lacking and giving them an answer at second base for 2010 and beyond.
Mike Fontenot please. Make it happen, Jack.
USSM NC Event This Sunday
A reminder to those of you in the southeast – our USSM get together in Durham is this Sunday afternoon at Champps Sports. We’ve reserved their private dining area to watch the M’s and Angels play – game starts at 3:35, but I’ll be there around 2:30, so feel free to come a bit early if you’d like.
Joining me in hosting the event will be former USSM author Jeff Shaw. I guarantee at least one Barbaro joke out of Shaw, and if things get bad, we’ll make him teach us how to build a solar powered home. Conor Glassey won’t be able to make it, unfortunately, as the jerks at Baseball America actually want him to work for his money, but we’ll do another one of these later in the summer that Conor can attend.
So, Sunday from ~2:30 to ~7:30, a bunch of east coast M’s fans getting together to watch the team struggle to score runs. There’s no cost for the event other than what you pay the folks at Champps for food and drink, although we will insist that you tip well. Put any questions in the comments.
Johjima out again
Johjima has a broken toe. Apparently it’s more of a problem catching than it is hitting, because he homered after he broke it. This is the sort of thing you have to be prepared for with catchers, a position where having some organizational depth does matter, which is why Rob Johnson could potentially have a 10-year career without being able to hit.
For the Mariners, the organizational depth at catcher was thought to be a strong point not that long ago, but it’s dwindling. Jeff Clement is hitting well enough now at Tacoma to be called up, but his knee’s bothering him and he’s only been DHing the past three weeks. Not an option, then, and really not worth considering as a catcher anymore. Either he takes over Griffey’s role next year, or he learns to play first base, or he leaves the organization. Both of the last two, probably.
Jamie Burke is filling the role played by Pat Borders a few years ago, so the team can always call on him. Johnson and Burke combined so far this year: .171/.207/.232. Our offense is already anemic enough, thanks.
Or, at this point, you could go straight past Burke to the one guy who really could be the team’s catcher of the future – Adam Moore. Between West Tenn and Tacoma he’s hit .266/.370/.391, and he does one of the things Zduriencik has shown he likes in position players, take pitches and draw walks. He’s probably not ready to come to the majors and stay, but for a two-week job-share until Johjima comes off the DL, it could let him get a feel for what the big leagues are like so he knows what to expect when he’s up here for real. And anything he hits would be gravy.
Game 46, Mariners at Athletics
Jakubauskas v Anderson. If you’re reading this, it means that I didn’t get back from my bike ride in time to post the lineups and open a beer before the game. I’m a little sorry.
Minor League Wrap (5/18-24/09)
I’ll be around for a little while to answer questions today, but I’m flying out to New York again in the afternoon, so if you’re asking later on in the evening, I won’t answer it until Tuesday at the earliest.
Game 45, Giants at Mariners
Order up! One favorable matchup for the M’s and it’s Felix Day against a lineup he should carve through, on a beautiful day in Seattle. Wooo!
Arrrrggghh!
#@$@#%!!!
#$@%#$^*&$%*((#$@%(@#!! *#$%! Re-$!@##!@-diculous!!
I still can’t believe that game.
Game 44, Giants at Mariners
“I was thinking, if we’re going to be judged on our performance, we have to be able to throw against our own team. It’s only fair.”
“Yeah.”
“I don’t want to go into contract negotiations next year and try to explain that my comparable pitchers got to face my team, while I’m out there getting hit around by the Rangers.”
“Absolutely. We do get the Angels and A’s, though.”
“Angels post-Vlad aren’t going to be Angels pre-Vlad. Lucky suckers who drew them early in the season. I’m saying, it should be adjusted or we should all be given a couple of extra starts against teams of our own offensive — sorry, hang on — what’s up, skip?”
“Washburn’s knee is bugging him. You’re pitching against the Giants tonight.”
“Woo-hoo!”
Game 43, Giants at Mariners
I’m posting super-early because yesterday’s got caught in “draft” and never went out, and that was bad.
It’s nice to see Randy back. And just to pre-empt trolling, here’s the link to “Refuting the Randy Johnson quit on us canard“. Vargas takes the start for the M’s.
Welcome Back, Randy
I don’t have time for a long, waxing, poetic post on the greatness of Randy Johnson. I wish I did, though, because he was the guy that made the Mariners of the 1990s both interesting and great. I was at his 19 strikeout game when McGwire hit the ball 600 feet at the Kingdome. I was at a lot of Randy Johnson starts, because every time he took the hill, it was an event.
I loved watching Randy Johnson pitch, and I hated watching him leave. I hope he gets a standing ovation tonight, and he pitches like its 1995 again.
Welcome back to Seattle, Randy. You’ll always be my favorite.