You Gotta Take An Aspirin With These Guys
The Mariners have played 26 games so far. 12 of them, or 46% of the total, have been decided by one run, including the last four in a row. One run games are, essentially, a coinflip. A bad call, a lucky bounce, a tricky hop – these are the things that decide who wins one run games. The outcomes of those games don’t really prove anything. If you play too many of them, that just means you aren’t good enough to blow out your opponent and you have some areas to improve upon.
I know it’s tempting to look at the loss last night and the loss on Saturday as blown opportunities. They’re games we probably should have won. But likewise, we had no business winning the games on Friday or Sunday, and we really have no business being 3-2 in games started by Carlos Silva. That’s just how baseball works, though. You’ll win some you shouldn’t and lose some that you feel like were right there for the taking, but if you’re a really good team, you’ll win a lot more blowouts than you lose and the one run games won’t matter all that much.
I know it’s tempting to draw conclusions about the character/mental strength/will to win after a bunch of close games, but hopefully the last four days have illustrated the reality of baseball – the winner of one run games often has little to do with the moral fiber of the guys on the field, and a lot more to do with random chance.
Game 26, Rangers at M’s
Happy Felix Day!
Millwood vs Hernandez, 7:10 pm.
Ichiro, RF
Not Gutierrez, LF
Sweeney, DH
Branyan, 1B
Beltre, 3B
Lopez, 2B
Johjima, C
Gutierrez, CF
Betancourt, SS
Junior has an “inflamed colon”, so he’s out for the game. Sweeney steps in at DH, and Beltre and Branyan flip-flop spots in order to keep a little more L-R-L balance in the middle of the order. I’d bet they’ll switch back once Junior is healthy enough to play again.
Other than that, pretty standard line-up. Remember when Wak was trying to keep everyone guessing with his line-up of the day? He’s basically settled on a generic order at this point. Oh well.
These games feel more important than your normal May match-up against the team that is, probably the worst in the division. Whether this team is “for real” or not, the further they can distance themselves from the rest of the division as early as possible, the better, because there’s a bar that this team needs to be above come July in order to avoid trading away Bedard-Beltre-Washburn. Wins in April and May actually matter more to this team than wins in August and September, because there’s a bonus or penalty that will be enforced on the roster come the summer depending on the team’s win-loss record.
Given that, and with Felix and Bedard pitching the next two days, the M’s have a chance to get a 4+ game cushion over everyone else in the division. That might not sound like a lot, but given the mediocrity of the other three teams in the AL West, a 4 or 5 game lead in May means that you’re almost certainly within a game or two of first place come July 31st. Worst case scenario, you have a melt down and lose 6-8 games in the standings in two months. If you have a 5 game lead over the other three teams, that melt down still probably leaves you in second place and a single series away from retaking the lead.
17-10 going into Wednesday’s games against Kansas City will feel a lot different than 15-12. I know, it’s just May, but these are pretty big games for the M’s. Let’s hope we get Good Felix and Good Bedard and spend Wednesday trying to figure out which prospects we might be willing to part with this summer in order to upgrade the roster.
I Have Come To Praise Franklin Gutierrez
Coming into the season, we knew Gutierrez could play defense. After the Putz trade was announced, we spent thousands of words telling anyone who would listen that the Mariners just acquired Mike Cameron-lite, an elite defensive center fielder who would more than make up for his offensive shortcomings with spectacular defense and the results would be manifest in improved results for the pitchers.
That’s all been true, and obvious to anyone who watched the games. If you haven’t figured out by now that Gutierrez is one of the best defensive players in baseball, I don’t know what to tell you. If you haven’t realized that defense matters and the three centerfielders plan can yield positive results, you might want to start following basketball or something.
But I’m not here to talk about Franklin Gutierrez’s defense. I’m here to praise the man’s offense, and beg for him to be reinserted into the #2 slot in the batting order.
Forget the results for a second. Gutierrez had a good weekend, and his seasonal line is now above average for a hitter. Obviously, if he could keep that up, it would be the best mark of his career to date. But it’s easy to talk up a guy’s offense after a good week early in the season inflates his season totals. Let’s talk about how Gutierrez is approaching each at-bat.
On a team full of hackers, Gutierrez stands out as an oasis in the desert. His swing percentage for 2009 is 37.6%, second lowest on the team (only Endy Chavez swings less at 36.9%). Lopez, Beltre, and Betancourt swing about 55% of the time. That 18% difference is what enables Gutierrez to work the count, get into situations where he can sit on a fastball, and make the opposing pitcher work. He hasn’t drawn 10 walks so far by accident. Pitchers aren’t scared of Gutierrez, but he’s making them throw strikes. Not just one strike, but multiple strikes in every at-bat. If you aren’t around the plate, you’re going to throw Gutierrez a lot of pitches before you end up putting him on base.
Gutierrez and Betancourt have seen the same amount of balls and strikes this season – 51.8% of the pitches thrown to Gutierrez have been in the zone, compared with 52% to Betancourt. Gutierrez has 10 walks and is seeing 4.00 pitches per plate appearance, while Yuni has yet to walk and is seeing 3.31 pitches per plate appearance. That’s all approach. That’s why Gutierrez has made 7 less outs despite having a batting average 20 points lower, and those extra outs are extremely valuable.
Wakamatsu began the season with Gutierrez in the #2 spot, and he had the right idea – he’s the perfect hitter for that slot on this team. With Ichiro leading off, you want a patient hitter in the #2 spot in order to give him an opportunity to steal bases. With Griffey hitting 3rd against RHP, you want a guy in the #2 spot who can hit LHPs, in order to minimize the opponents ability to get easy platoon advantages late in games. Managers also like a #2 guy who can bunt, and since it’s the spot that will get the second most plate appearances on the team, you’d like the guy to be a competent hitter.
Patient approach? Whacks lefties? Good bunter? Decent hitter? Check, check, check, and check.
Gutierrez is perfect for the #2 spot in the order against both RHPs and LHPs. Against RHPs, you have 1/3/5 LHBs, so having Gutierrez’s ability to hit LHPs will deter opposing managers from bringing in a LOOGY to go after the top of the order. Against LHPs, he’s one of the better hitters on the team, and you want his patience and gap power driving the ball as often as possible.
Endy Chavez had a nice start to the season, but he’s a #9 hitter, and the fact that he’s left-handed makes him an even worse fit for the #2 spot between Ichiro and Griffey.
Franklin Gutierrez has earned his way back up to the top of the line-up. With the way he’s approaching his plate appearances, he’s earned the reward. Move him back up, Wak.
Minor League Wrap (4/27-5/3/09)
This rundown is also slightly clipped, but that should be the last of the time-abbreviated ones for a while. It’s only missing a few of the stories and the happenings in general, but the ground/fly ratios make their triumphant return. I’d say just keeping track of all the transactions for this week gave me more than enough to talk about.
To the jump!
Read more
Woooooooooooo
I heart Jason Vargas.
Game 25, A’s at M’s
Outman v Jakubauskas.
Ichiro, RF
Lopez, 2B
Sweeney, DH
Beltre, 3B
Branyan, 1B
Balentien, LF
Johjima, C
Gutierrez, CF
Betancourt, SS
This is probably something close to the best line-up the M’s can run out there. They’re going to hit LHPs better than RHPs just due to the nature of the roster, but this gives us the added boost of having Lopez higher in the order, Balentien instead of Chavez, and Johjima instead of Johnson. I wouldn’t be surprised if the M’s put up 6+ runs today. Outman’s an extreme flyball guy facing a line-up of lefty mashers. This could/should be fun.
Follow along with Daryl Cousins’ notoriously small strike zone below.
Game 24, A’s at M’s
Cahill v Washburn. 6:10, FSN. Washburn’s gets Rob Johnson, as Johjima gets the night off. If he has a good night we’ll see if he can resist making comments about Johnson’s good communication skills or the connection between them.
Other news: as Dave speculated, Morrow was unavailable and is now on the DL, though Morrow seems to dispute whether he could have gone or not. It’s good to see the team be cautious with their pitchers. The Times has both sides.
Denny Stark got the call up from Tacoma.
Craziness
After Bobby Crosby’s bases clearing triple, the Mariners had a 9.2% chance of winning. Heading into the bottom of the 8th inniing, the Angels had a 98.7% chance of winning. If the Mariners win the division, I guarantee that tonight will be pointed to as the turning point. The Angels were marching towards victory, only to have their closer give it away. The M’s were marching towards defeat, only to win on one of the most ridiculous at-bats you’ve ever seen.
I mean, where do you start talking about this game? Some terrible pitching on both sides, only exacerbated by the worst job of umpiring I’ve ever seen? Or how Branyan thumping another left-handed pitcher? Wak’s inexplicable usage of Sean White? Shawn Kelley with some absolutely brilliant pitching? The Lopez at-bat? That game was just a circus.
I want to point out a few things, though, that don’t fall into the jubilation “holy crap how did we win that game” category.
I wasn’t too worried about Morrow before, but I am now. The only way Wak’s bullpen usage makes any sense at all is if Morrow wasn’t available and he was saving Aardsma for the ninth. Otherwise, umm, Sean White in the 7th – maybe you can explain as the hot hand or something, but Sean White starting the 8th inning of a tie game at home on the day after the team didn’t play? That’s just nutty. Once Kelley got through the 8th, if Morrow was available, I’d have to think he’d have been throwing. If the team scores in the 8th, it’s a save situation. If they don’t score, there won’t be any save situations for the rest of the night, so you might as well use him to keep the game tied.
While we’re talking about Wak decisions, I’d love it if one of the beat writers (hint hint) would take advantage of their pre-game talks with him and get him to explain his “I don’t pinch hit” rationale. On the season, we’ve now used a pinch hitter three times – Mike Sweeney hit for Rob Johnson in Chicago, Wladimir Balentien hit for Franklin Gutierrez in the same game, and Sweeney pinch hit for Jamie Burke in the 9th inning of the 8-2 loss to the Tigers. Essentially, in one game out of 23 this year, Wak has used pinch-hitters as a strategic move to try to win a game, and in both times, he used an RHB to pinch-hit for an RHB to face an RHP.
Clearly, he understands platoon splits. However, he just doesn’t seem to really care about them after he’s turned in his line-up card. I think 99% of managers in baseball jump at the chance to send Ken Griffey Jr to the plate representing the winning run in the 9th inning at Safeco against an RHP. There’s a lot of evidence out there that the pinch-hitting penalty is pretty severe (even good hitters generally suck when asked to pinch-hit), and not pinch-hitting might actually be the best percentage play there, but I’d still love to hear Wak talk about why he is so clearly not a fan of the move.
Oh, and I’ll be surprised if Silva makes his next scheduled start. With Vargas just up from Tacoma, the team has an option that’s already stretched out and capable of eating innings. RR-S is due back pretty soon, but I’m not sure they’ll wait that long.
Memo To Jim Joyce
This is Shawn Kelley’s pitch f/x plot from the 8th inning. The green squares are pitches that were called balls.
The. Green. Squares. Were. Called. Balls.
I don’t even know what to say.
Game 23, Athletics at Mariners
Eveland vs Newer Slimmer Carlos Silva. And what a nice day for it.
From Fangraphs:
Eveland’s pitch mix: 59% fastballs, 22% sliders, 6% curves, 12% changes
Silva’s pitch mix: 85% fastballs, 7% sliders, 8% changeups
Eveland hasn’t gone more than five innings since his first start this year, but even watching his last start against Tampa, you can see he had two distinct pitches working, the fastball and a slider (slider’s a little slower, like 84, but he gets huge movement on it compared to the fastball) and then threw some random stuff occasionally.
Meanwhile, as I flogged continually, Silva’s been throwing that BP-quality fastball/sinker/beach ball all the time.
Mmm-mmm.