The Closer
Okay, so, let’s talk about the closer role. As you probably know, the M’s are having an open audition for the 9th inning relief spot, and the current leaders in the clubhouse appear to be Miguel Batista, Mark Lowe, and Roy Corcoran. Tyler Walker would be in the mix if he wasn’t battling injury issues, and David Aardsma is a longshot unless he shows significantly improved command this spring.
When you hear teams and the media talk about the closer role, they’ll usually refer to several points of significance that are necessary for being a closer. They are, in some order, velocity, mental toughness, and owning a swing-and-miss pitch. The prototypical closer is someone like Jonathan Papelbon – a mid-90s fastball that he throws a ton of and gets a lot of swinging strikes with along with the desire to take the ball in the 9th inning. Since that is what closers are “supposed to look like”, you’ll see the discussions about who should close center around who looks most like that ideal.
Batista throws hard and wants to close, so he’s in the mix. Lowe throws hard and gets a lot of strikeouts, so he’s in the mix too. Corcoran doesn’t throw hard and doesn’t have a strikeout pitch, but he’s getting endorsed as a guy who has the mental toughness to pitch in the 9th inning, so he’s in the mix too, but with a lot of skepticism due to his lack of velocity and knockout pitch.
However, what actually is the most important aspect to being able to successfully pitch in the 9th inning? Does this fit-everyone-into-a-box method actually yield the best results? What should the team be looking for in a relief ace?
I’d argue that the most important quality a closer needs to have is the ability to get opposite handed hitters out. This is the thing that is hardly ever talked about, but is vital to being able to perform as a closer. Due to the way the modern bullpen is handled, all non-closer relievers can have significant platoon splits minimized through managerial decisions. Sean Green didn’t have anything to throw at LH batters, and they gave him fits throughout his career, but he was an effective reliever because he was put in the game when RH batters were due up and removed when a string of LH came to the plate. His strengths were maximized and his weaknessses minimized by his usage.
That doesn’t apply to closers. Managers just aren’t willing to let the 9th inning be decided by the handedness of the opponents batters, and the closer is expected to be able to come in and get three outs regardless of who is due up. If the opposition sends three LH pinch-hitters to the plate, the closer has to stay in and get those guys out – the manager won’t be summoning a LOOGY from the pen to go after those guys. We can see this effect in the ratio of batters faced by closers and non-closers.
Last year, right-handed batters accumulated 48,549 plate appearances while left-handed batters racked up 38,809 trips to the plate. That is, 56% of all batters faced by pitchers last year were right-handed. The 56/44 split is pretty normal historically. There are more RH hitters than LH hitters in baseball, so right-handed middle relievers can easily be spotted against same-handed hitters and achieve success.
However, the majority of hitters faced by closers are opposite handed. I grabbed the PA splits for eight prominent right-handed closers (Jenks, Rivera, Papelbon, Nathan, K-Rod, Lidge, Cordero, and Valverde), and 51% of the batters they faced as a group were LH. Lidge faced 54% left-handed batters. Because of their inflexible usage patterns and managers knowing they won’t be removed if a pinch-hitter is used, closers will simply face more opposite handed batters than other relievers. This is why you rarely see a closer with significant platoon splits.
So, how does that affect the M’s candidates?
Batista is a fastball-slider guy, neither of which are good pitches against LH batters. For his career, LH batters put up an OPS 100 points higher than RH batters, and last year, he looked just miserably lost against them – 55 walks and against 38 strikeouts in 303 PA versus left-handed batters. He’s vulnerable to LH bats, and his skills are best suited to righty specialist work. In reality, if used correctly, he’s not all that different from Sean Green, just with less sink on his fastball.
Lowe is a fastball-slider-change-up guy, and the change-up is usually the pitch that is best suited to getting opposite handed hitters out. A knockout change-up is what has allowed Trevor Hoffman to succeed as a closer despite losing his fastball and having no real breaking ball, for instance. So, in terms of repertoire, Lowe would seemingly have an advantage with a pitch that should allow him to keep LH hitters at bay. However, in practical results as a major leaguer, that hasn’t been the case – LH batters have posted a .983 OPS against Lowe compared to a .637 OPS for right-handed batters. All eight home runs he’s allowed have been to left-handed bats. Lowe’s change is a good pitch, but his command needs a lot of work, and when he misses his spots, it gets crushed. He’s going to have to show that he can locate his change-up better or he’s going to run into some problems as a 9th inning guy.
Corcoran is a sinkerball guy who throws a slider and a change, but not very frequently. For the most part, he’s just trying to get you to hit the ball on the ground, and that means a lot of fastballs. Sinkerball pitchers often run significant platoon splits, and Corcoran is no exception. LH batters had an OPS 98 points higher than RH batters, and he walked 19 and struck out just 12 left-handed batters in 151 plate appearances. Like Green, his sinker is so good that he can overcome some weakness against LH bats and be used as an effective RH reliever despite mediocre BB/K rates, but he’s miscast as a guy who has to face predominantly LH batters. His stuff is just made for right-handed specialist work, and no amount of moxy can make up for the fact that he just doesn’t have a weapon against left-handed hitters.
So, where does that leave us? Batista and Corcoran are both better suited for setup work, while Lowe has the repertoire of a relief ace but not the command. However, there is reason to believe that Lowe could succeed as a closer – a three pitch guy with a 94 MPH fastball who gets a lot of swinging strikes has some upside potential, which is more than you can say for Batista or Corcoran. In a season where developing talent for the future is in the plan, Mark Lowe as closer looks to be the best choice. There’s still reasons to think he could struggle there, but at least there’s some breakout potential.
M’s Take Beltre Out Of WBC
Per Geoff Baker, the M’s have told Adrian Beltre that he won’t be allowed to participate in the World Baseball Classic. Teams have the right to deny players who are coming off surgeries from the previous year the option of playing, and the M’s invoked that right to keep Beltre out of the tournament.
On one hand, I feel a bit bad for Beltre – they’d told him it was up to him, and he probably feels like he had the rug pulled out from under him here. He obviously wanted to play. However, the M’s do have to act in the best interests of the organization, and keeping Beltre healthy is definitely in their best interests. The team can’t win without him, and he’s a trade asset even if they aren’t winning. So, there’s definitely two sides here, neither one wrong, but I have to wonder if maybe there was a better way to handle this than telling him no at the last minute.
LaRue has a humorous anecdote about this – Beltre apparently gave up his apartment, because he had decided he was leaving Peoria tomorrow to join the Dominican team. Now that he’s not going, he doesn’t have a place to live.
And I don’t have anywhere to live, either. Where ever Jack (Zduriencik) is staying, I’m going to show up at his door and ask for a room.â€
Zduriencik said that would be fine.
“I’ll be glad to give him my bed – my wife and I will move to the other room,” he said. “Adrian and his whole family can come stay with us.
Sounds like they’re all keeping a sense of humor, at least.
Bedard’s innings are as short as his interviews
In case you want to talk about the game. Just as meaningless as any other spring game, other than figuring out whether Beltre will play for his country.
Happy Felix Inning
Or maybe two.
It’s Felix. Go Felix.
Stone, taking it to the people
Preach it, Larry!
Running Low On OFs
As we all know, the Mariners brought a ton of guys to camp this year, loading up on organizational depth and creating a lot of competition at various positions. However, that depth is being tested, as come Monday, they’re gonna be fairly low on outfielders.
Wladimir Balentien is still not in camp. Freddy Guzman just broke his hamate bone. Endy Chavez and Greg Halman are leaving next week to go play in the WBC, where they’ll join Ichiro on leave to their countries. That leaves the outfielders on the 40 man roster actually in camp at Franklin Gutierrez, Mike Morse, and Ken Griffey Jr. And calling Morse and Griffey outfielders is pretty generous. Morse was expected to fight for the RH 1B bench job, while Griffey should be DH’ing whenever possible.
Prentice Redman and Mike Wilson are the two NRI outfielders in camp, but even with those two, you’re only looking at three real outfielders plus Griffey and Morse. Balentien needs to bribe someone to get back into the country pronto, because he’s wasting a massive opportunity to get some real playing time. With the roster the way it is, the M’s might need to bring some minor league OFs to camp early, because right now, they’re running short on bodies out there.
Odalis
This keeps coming up in comments and emails, and now that he’s officially free and not just disgruntled, it’s worth touching on. Odalis Perez is left-handed and a pitcher. He’s not particularly old, he doesn’t have great stuff but it’s not wretched… on the other hand, what are we hoping the potential is? 100-150 innings of slightly above-average pitching? You’re probably going to do better than that from Ryan Rowland-Smith. Or Jarrod Washburn, for that matter. And that still leaves the new, slimmer Carlos Silva and Miguel Batista.
Given that Perez just refused to play for a $850k contract where he’d have to make the club, I’d guess he wants at least a guaranteed major league deal, and the M’s don’t have a slot to give up, and not a lot of reason to if they did.
I know, for someone who regularly debates the relative merits of backup corner infielders for hundreds of words, that’s weird to say, but I don’t see where he’s worth it. The M’s already have a couple of these guys in hand already. There’s no need for another unless you want to see the Tacoma rotation gain some veteran presence.
Yay baseball yayyy
The M’s site claims that you can listen to the game here but you can’t, sooooo.
Feierabend Out For Season
Per Larry LaRue – Ryan Feierabend is going to have surgery on a ligament in his left elbow and is probably done for the year.
While he’s not a top prospect, this is a bit of a blow to the M’s pitching depth. Zduriencik did a good job of stockpiling LH starters this winter, but with both Bedard and Washburn as potential trade bait this summer, Feierabend was still looking at a possible end-of-season rotation spot if he pitched well in Tacoma. This was probably going to be his best chance to show the team that he could be a decent starter in the majors. With his ’09 season gone, his window is closing very fast. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him removed from the 40 man roster next winter.
Athletics stadium plans are off
If you were afraid that the A’s would move to Fremont and a new, posh stadium where they’d start to rake in the dough and compete with the M’s, Rangers, and Angels in raw revenue dollars, shudder no more: deal’s dead. It’d been increasingly troubled, with delays putting its date way out, but the admission of defeat is still surprising, as it puts them back in the Al Davis Reconfigurable Hole indefinitely, and that place suuuuuuuuuucks, they don’t draw there, and MLB’s nonsensical territory system and particularly their guardianship of San Jose for the Giants means they’re screwed for a long while yet unless they move to Kyoto or something crazy.
And there’s a serious chance this will be the event that finally pushes Beane to go pursue soccer.