The Budget
When John Hickey wrote about the Tyler Walker signing, he used the column to make a larger point about the M’s payroll, including dropping this tidbit that hadn’t been published before:
But there likely won’t be much more free-agency action because the team has a goal of trimming last year’s $117 million payroll by about 20 percent.
To support this claim, he includes the following quote from Zduriencik:
“I don’t think we are going to be enormously active in free agency,” Zduriencik said. “If the fit is right there, maybe, but we’re not in position to break the bank.”
If the M’s really do want to cut 20% off of their payroll from last year, that would put the 2009 budget at around $93.6 million. If you add up the salaries for the projected 25 man roster as it stands right now, you get $93.2 million. He’s not kidding when he says they’re not in a position to break the bank.
Now, there’s some wiggle room there. Ichiro is going to earn $17 million this season, but $5 million of his salary is deferred at 5.5% interest until after he retires, so they’re only going to physically pay him $12 million. However, they need to account for the deferred payments as a liability against this year, but thanks to the time value of money, the cost of those payments won’t total $5 million – instead, it’s more like $3.5 to $4 million. So, the expense of having Ichiro on the roster for 2009 is more like $15.5 to $16 million.
Also, we can’t really do anything but guess at the salaries for Bedard, Hernandez, and Heilman, since they’re arbitration eligible. I put in $8 million, $3 million, and $2 million respectively, and would imagine all the deals will end up in that vicinity, but variation from those numbers would push the remaining room left in the budget up or down a bit.
No matter how you look at it, though, if the M’s target payroll is around $95 million, then they are pretty close to being out of money. That would push them towards the trade market, where they could match salaries in deals to move pieces around. It makes things tougher, but not impossible.
Looking ahead to 2010, the team has about $55 million committed to 17 roster spots (again, guessing at arb salaries for Hernandez, Heilman, and Morrow, who will be arb eligible after 2009). The expiration of contracts for Beltre, Washburn, Batista, Bedard, Chavez, Branyan, and Walker would give the team something like $40-$45 million in budget room next winter, but would also create some pretty substantial holes in the roster. Beltre, especially, isn’t going to be cheap to re-sign or replace, so a good chunk of that money would go to keeping him in Seattle or trying to recoup the wins lost by watching him go elsewhere.
I know signings like Russ Branyan and Tyler Walker aren’t the kind of moves that are going to get people excited, but given the roster that he was left with by his predecessor, if a 20% budget decrease was really ordered, then Zduriencik should get a few gold stars for how well he’s been able to re-make this team without having much capital to spend.
Under fifty spots left for the Jan 10 Q&A
Really.
Site update note for Jan 7
Hey, I moved USSM to the newest WordPress version late last night/early this morning. You shouldn’t have seen any problems, but I noticed there are 315 comments now marked as “spam” which show up as not visible, going back for ages… and some of them I know were live before. And we don’t have a spam filter since everyone’s registered. I don’t know what the deal is. I’m looking into it.
Maybe J.J. Needs Lasik?
J.J. Putz on Miguel Batista:
“What’s baffling about Miguel is he’s got some of the nastiest stuff you’ll ever see, and he throws a 93-97 mph fastball with movement – and he refuses to throw it,†Putz said. “He wants to throw his other pitches to get you out. I mean, I’ve never seen him get beat with his fastball.â€
Raise your hand if you’ve ever seen him get beat with his fastball. I’m going to have to put my hand down to keep typing this post, but the rest of you can just keep pointing at the sky.
His BIS pitch data (available, with everything else good in the world, on FanGraphs) has him throwing 50% fastballs and 39% cut fastballs last year. His “other pitches” were thrown 11% of the time.
Maybe J.J. hates Batista’s cut fastball, but he’s always thrown it a lot. That didn’t exactly change.
Oh, and then there’s comment, presented without (much) commentary:
“If you’re looking for the guy who’s got it downstairs, Corcoran is best suited to close,†Putz said.
I’m sure the boys at Lookout Landing will have fun with that comment.
Deals of the day: Giambi, Pavano…
ESPN The Magazine senior writer Buster Olney reported the deal will pay Giambi $4 million in 2009 with a $6.5 million base salary for the option year in 2010. The second year would also provide for a $1.25 million buyout.
Pavano gets a 1y, $1.5m-base contract from the Indians.
Jerry Hairston reportedly will remain with the Reds, signing a 1y deal (some of you can stop hijacking threads now, thanks). Hairston would have been a nice pick for a backup infielder but it’s not hard to find a suitable replacement.
Jan 10 Feed update: under 75 seats left
Yup, we’re over 200 and they’re still going fast. At this rate, we may sell out.
Sell out. Yup. I may well buy up the remaining spots so I can scalp them for old time’s sake.
If you wanted to arrange to avoid PayPal and emailed us, you should have heard from me. If you wanted to pay for or bring a guest, you should have emailed us, and if you didn’t, I probably emailed you to bug you for the guest names. If you donated anonymously on accident (your name doesn’t show up on the Pledgie thing) you should probably mail us.
Dave’s promotional post follows
—
We told you hold the date – now we tell you why. On Saturday, January 10th, we’re hosting the latest USSM/LL event. The guests for the afternoon are Mariners Asst. GM Tony Blengino and Mariners scouting director Tom McNamara. These are the two guys that Zduriencik brought over from Milwaukee – Blengino is the guy behind the Department of Baseball Research that is being established and the one pushing the organization into the 21st century of baseball analysis. McNamara is the top scout in the organization, and will be running the amateur draft this summer. They’re both going to be a lot of fun to talk to.
The event is at the downtown Seattle Central Library from 1:30 to 5:30 on Saturday, January 10th. We won’t be providing food, so we’ve lowered the price to $10, which just goes to defray the costs of the room rental. We’re trying to improve the whole registration/payment process for these things, so if you want to attend, click on the button below and donate $10.
Do not click the anonymous button, as we need your name to show up on the list of donaters -that will be the list we use at the door to let people in. If you’re paying for multiple people, send an email to the USSM account with the names of the people you’re bringing so that we can make sure everyone is on the list. And if you’re totally anti-paypal, send us an email too and we’ll work something out.
But, yea, January 10th, four hours of baseball talk with Derek, the LL gang, and two of the big wigs in the M’s new front office. It’s going to be a lot of fun, so I encourage you to go.
M’s Sign Tyler Walker
So, the “piece of the puzzle” guy that Zduriencik referred to having an offer out to was not Jerry Hairston, as I guessed, but instead Tyler Walker. The Mariners announced they had signed Walker to a one year deal this afternoon, and while terms were not disclosed, you can bet that it’s for between $1 and $2 million. The relief pitcher market has cratered, so there’s no way Walker is getting more than a modest contract for 2009. (Update: Hickey reports the deal is for $750,000)
Walker actually had a pretty successful season last year, coming back after having Tommy John surgery in 2006 and having barely pitched in 2007. His 8.27 K/9 was the highest of his career, and while he continued to show below average command, he got enough swinging strikes to offset the base on balls. His groundball rate jumped up as well, but over just 226 batters faced, that could easily just be small sample size noise.
Overall, he posted a 4.24 FIP as a fairly high leverage reliever (his gmLI was almost the same as Brad Lidge), and he was worth about .25 wins over a replacement level reliever. Yea, .25 wins. Relievers are just so easy to find that a good performance by one isn’t very tough to come by. So, Walker’s a nice arm, and his strikeout rate and experience in high leverage situations gives him a chance to add some depth to the ‘pen. So, for about 1% of the payroll, it’s a nifty little move. If he ends up taking the closer job, he could do some decent enough work for a few months and be a trade chip at the deadline – it’s that kind of asset building that this organization needs to be in the business of.
However, this makes a crowded pitching staff just that much more full. You can now add Walker to the mix with Aaron Heilman, Roy Corcoran, Miguel Batista, and Mark Lowe as right-handed relief options. Add in Ryan Rowland-Smith, Jose Lugo, Jason Vargas, Justin Thomas, and Cesar Jimenez from the left side and you’ve got 10 arms for six or seven bullpen spots. The M’s just have too many pitchers on the roster right now. Quantity is a good thing, but it doesn’t help if you don’t have room for them all.
Chance For Redemption
“I’d love to have an outfield bat, and I’d love to have another infielder,” Zduriencik said, listing the Mariners’ remaining priorities. “And everyone is looking for pitching.”
From Rosenthal this afternoon:
Nick Swisher might not be a Yankee for long. The signing of free agent Mark Teixeira eliminated any chance of Swisher playing first base, and the team’s outfield surplus almost certainly will lead to a trade.
Nick Swisher is headed into his age 28 season. He’s guaranteed $22 million over the next three seasons, and has an option for 2012 that could turn the deal into $31 million over four years. Depending on whether the option is picked up, the AAV of his contract is between $7 and $8 million per year for his 28-30/31 seasons.
Here’s Swisher’s FanGraphs Win Values for his career:
2005: 2.1 wins
2006: 3.4 wins
2007: 3.8 wins
2008: 0.9 wins
Yes, he had a bad year last year. It happens. His skillset remained in tact, however – his walk, strikeout, and home run rates were all right in line with where they’d always been. His batted ball profile was unchanged. His batting average on balls in play just tanked and pulled his batting average down to .219, and that’s not the kind of thing that screams “fell off a cliff”.
The CHONE projections have him at .250/.360/.450 for 2009, which would make him a +10 run hitter. Defensively, he’s above average in a corner, which is where he’d play on the M’s. Call him +5 runs as a left fielder. He’s also a switch hitter without much of a platoon split, and he’s durable enough to play everyday. That makes him a +2.75 win player for 2009.
Depending on how well you think he’ll age, he’s probably +7 to +10 wins over the first three years of the contract. $22 million in salary for 7 to 10 wins over the next three years. This is the kind of guy the M’s should be interested in – an above average switch hitter with a flyball swing that’s perfect for Safeco and who could step right into the middle of the line-up on a daily basis.
The M’s have the extra pieces needed to get the deal done. While I’m as big a fan of bargain shopping as anyone, there aren’t many above average players left on the market, and there aren’t any who are headed into their age 28 season and fit the M’s roster as well as Swisher does. They missed their first chance to pick him up on the cheap, but hopefully they can see that opportunity is knocking again.
Nick Swisher please. Thank you.
A Few Notes
Larry LaRue has a few quotes from Adrian Beltre and one from Zduriencik where he notes that they have an offer out for “a piece of the puzzle”, and LaRue confirms that it’s not Ken Griffey Jr or Adam Dunn. Most likely, it’s Jerry Hairston, whom the Mariners have been linked to for a couple of weeks now. He would replace Bloomquist as the utility player du jour and be the defacto backup middle infielder. Personally, I prefer Alfredo Amezaga for that role, but of course, you have to make the Marlins trade him, so Hairston might be the better option if he comes cheaply on a one year deal.
Other stuff of interest – with the Rays signing Pat Burrell for 2 years and $16 million and Milton Bradley joining the Cubs for 3 years and $30 million, the cap has been set on what good offensive/bad defensive outfielders can command. Bobby Abreu and Adam Dunn are going to have to take huge pay cuts from what they made last year if they want a job, because there are rapidly becoming fewer teams in need of a DH. I would imagine the M’s are keeping tabs on both players, and if the market continues to shrink for that skillset, the M’s could add a decent LH bat to the line-up on the cheap.
Also, yesterday was the start of the period where arbitration eligible players file their requests. We all know about Erik Bedard, but did you realize Felix Hernandez is arb. eligible for the first time as well? It will be interesting to see if Zduriencik approaches Felix with a multi-year contract offer that would buy out his three arbitration years and potentially a year or two of free agency. A four or five year deal won’t come cheap anymore, but it could still be a significant cost saver for the M’s in the long run.
Also, there’s ~100 spots left for the Q&A on Saturday with Tony Blengino and Tom McNamara. If you haven’t signed up yet and you want to, there’s still time.
Awesome Web site
Ever since the Web site Cal Leaguers stopped being updated, I’ve been looking for a good site to see video footage of prospects and today I found a gold mine. I was killing some time on YouTube and stumbled upon an awesome feed that coincides with an equally-awesome Web site.
After enjoying the draft videos prior to the 2007 draft, Drew Samuelson though about forming a site with video footage of minor leaguers. In 2008, the Seattle native relocated to southern California began filming Cal League games and Pacific Prospect Report was formed. He caught nearly every team and also got to a couple Pacific Coast League, Northwest League and Arizona Fall League games.
He’s back in Seattle now, in grad school at Seattle U studying Sports Administration and Leadership. He’s hoping to use the Web site, along with his education and experience (five years at Warner Brothers) to begin a career in sports entertainment.
There are a lot of videos on the site already and Drew said he is currently in the process of adding more of his Cal League footage from this season, which will almost double the size of his video library. So, if you’re looking for footage of Carlos Triunfel, Greg Halman, Michael Saunders or many, many more, head over to Pacific Prospect Report. You won’t be disappointed!