Ichiro: basestealer, leader, slighted
Peter Campbell and Loukas Tsopanoglou both inquired about Ichiro’s basestealing and CF/RF as part of the WoTYC, and I decided to write out something I’ve been puzzling about for a while.
| Apx. Chances | Attempts | Attempt % | success rate | |
| April/March | 36 | 7 | 19% | 86% |
| May | 45 | 19 | 42% | 95% |
| June | 43 | 9 | 21% | 100% |
| July | 42 | 2 | 5% | 50% |
| August | 49 | 7 | 14% | 86% |
“Apx. Chances” is a rough estimate of how often he was on first or second after his at-bat, as H-3B-HR+BB. Obviously, he can’t steal if someone’s blocking the basepaths, and he can’t steal if they get a hit on the first pitch, but given the team’s offense this year, how often did that happen anyway? I could have drawn out a better number from game data, but this is a decent approximation.
That’s pretty crazy: he started off the season just crazy, making me and my “McLaren’s crazy to encourage Ichiro to steal 90 bases” post look dumb, but since then… he slowed way down as early as June, stealing about half as often when he was on base, and then in July he ran almost not at all, with August a little better.
Meanwhile, I thought that one of the reasons he might be reluctant to steal more often was that it took a lot out of him and he’d prefer a high average to a high SB total.
|
BABIP
|
|
| April/March |
0.262
|
| May |
0.347
|
| June |
0.358
|
| July |
0.340
|
| August |
0.365
|
Hmm.
Interestingly, there’s a pretty distinct line where Ichiro gives up on base-stealing: after June 23rd in Shea, he didn’t attempt a steal for ten games, went for it once in two games, and then didn’t try again for twenty-two games (attempting against Baltimore August 3rd) followed by a six-game stretch without an attempt.
He started the season that way, too, despite the encouragement: he didn’t attempt a swipe until April 13th.
That’s Ichiro’s stolen base binge, right there: between April 13th and June 23rd, over sixty four games, Ichiro stole 33 bases and was caught twice. He averaged a live stolen base attempt every other game, and did it with a terrific success rate. In the other seventy-five games this year, he’s 7-2.
Was he bored? Desperately trying to keep the team in contention any way he could? Why doesn’t he get any credit for this manic clinic he put on?
Or let me try this a different way. Ichiro starts the season in center field. On each side he has two defensively inept fielders, so if his fly ball pitchers are going to get any outs, it has to be Ichiro that runs everywhere. The team starts out devently and then gets rocked by Baltimore to get to 2-5, takes 2-3 from Tampa, and then April 11th-13th, the M’s take two from the Angels. They’re 6-6 and in third place. Ichiro’s only hitting .269 at that point.
He goes absolutely crazy. He hits .291/.355/.370 from April 13th through June 23rd while stealing eighty kajillion bases and running all over the place in the outfield.
During the April 30-May 4th losing streak, he hit .381/.381/.381 and stole six bases in five games.
During the May 5-10th losing streak, he hit .286/..348/.429 (3 doubles!) and stole three bases in six games.
During the May 20-May 26 losing streak, he hit .367/.424/.467 and tried to steal twice in seven games.
I’m not going to try and make an argument that Ichiro’s more talented in losses or whatever. But what you absolutely cannot say is that Ichiro has ever given up on this inept, horrible team. In the depths of losing streaks, he’s been charging out infield hits, working over opposing pitchers, stealing. And he’s done most of it while shouldering the burden of being the only working outfielder on the team, the most valuable outfielder when most of our carelessly-assembled rotation of horror is at work.
I don’t know what happened when he turned the afterburners off. There could only be forty good steals in his legs a year, and he burned them off trying to keep the team from utter embarrassment, and now he’s given up. Perhaps something’s bugging him, and that’s part of why he wanted to get back into right to try and save himself. Or Riggleman, after watching for a week, told him it was okay to ease up. I don’t know. I don’t think anyone with a press pass has asked him.
This is why I get so absolutely livid when I hear or read people running down Ichiro’s contribution this year. This year Ichiro quietly tore himself up over two months, playing center while grounders skipped by the middle infield, showed up to catch nearly every fly to left-center and right-center, even if he flew over to end up only backing up the fielder who’d huffed his way ten steps over, worked every at-bat and stole bases to get into scoring position in lineups where Jose Vidro was tasked with driving him in. And we’re supposed to listen to garbage like “he doesn’t dive” or “he’s not a vocal leader?”
No. I won’t have it. Ichiro tried to put the team on his back this year, and the teammates he was given watched, shrugged, and went off to go get dinner or give good quote in the post-game interviews. I don’t know what more anyone wants from a player, but good luck finding it.
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This post was written as one of the requests by a USSM supporter as part of Thank You Content Week. Join them!
The return to the long dark winter of a small market
I don’t have a lot to say about Armstrong’s comments, but I wanted to make this quick point:
His comments about the challenges of Seattle’s market, and more generally the preparations to get everyone ready for slashing payroll and going to ground for a couple of years, are entirely lies, based on the premise that Seattle is a small market, which it isn’t, or that it’s hard to make money, which it’s not, and that they gave it a good try but failed because of totally unforseeable events they had no control over.
It’s part of the team’s long and storied history of mendacity, expectation-lowering, and their continual pouting that the fans and the city aren’t grateful enough to them for operating a for-profit business subsidized by us all.
As bad as these years have been, I’m not looking forward to seeing an even more petulant team waving a finger at me in the future, lecturing me on how they can’t afford to upgrade the team because I don’t go to enough games, rather than because they spent so long being so incompetent when the money was easy to come by.
Armstrong Speaks
Ross Newhan wrote a piece for the LA Times where he looks at the state of the American League West, from a “can anyone catch the Angels” perspective. In the piece, he gets a few interesting lines from Chuck Armstrong:
“I don’t think the Angels have anything we can’t catch up to,” he said from the West’s basement, “but after thinking it was going to happen this year I’m not predicting it’s going to happen next year.
“It’s not going to be a quick fix, because we’re going to have to grind through some of these contracts we’ve obligated ourselves to. Our attendance is going to go down in connection with our performance, and as chief operating officer here it’s my job to be fiscally and financially responsible, so you’re not going to see the Mariners go out and commit high dollars to free agents. We want to get back as quickly as we can, but we want to build something that will endure. If you don’t build a strong foundation in a market our size, you’re going to have some volatile swings in your record.
This is the most declarative public statement about what the organization is planning for the future we’ve heard since Bavasi was fired, and it seems clear that Lincoln has settled on rebuilding. Stating in September that “you’re not going to see the Mariners go out and commit high dollars to free agents” just doesn’t make any sense if you’re going to entertain any possibility of retooling and trying to win next year. These comments make it fairly obvious that the team is going to tear it down, cut payroll, and take their lumps for a few years.
This pretty much rules out Pat Gillick’s return (thank God), as you’d imagine that the GMs they’ll interview will be ones with experience in player development/franchise building. Don’t be surprised if John Hart, who recently said he was interested in the job, becomes a leading contender – Armstrong’s comments lead us to believe that we’re going to see a Cleveland-style rebuilding, and Hart is the most experienced guy in building a franchise through player development out there.
Enjoy Adrian Beltre’s last month in September – these kind of statements make it exceedingly likely that he’ll be traded this winter, as the M’s go young and cheap next year.
Game 139, Mariners at Rangers
Happy Felix Day!
Felix v Nippert. Early, too: 11:05. Still televised, though.
Is it just me, or does Felix face the Rangers every week? This is his fifth start against Texas this year…
Rob Johnson and Luis Valbuena make their major league starting debuts today, playing C and 2B respectively. After my comment about Valbuena’s defense being suspect the other day, I got corrected by about fifteen people, so mea culpa – those who have watched him play a lot this year like his glove quite a bit.
Jimenez and Feierabend
Cesar Jimenez and Ryan Feierabend are two of the youngsters the M’s are taking a look at and trying to figure out where they fit into the organization’s future plans. Both are left-handed, both have quality major league change-ups, and both throw fastballs in the mid-80s. And, because of their repertoires of pitching, both have one other big thing in common – they’re much better against right-handed hitters than left-handed hitters.
This is true of most pitchers who have a great change-up and not much else. The change is primarily a weapon to use against opposite handed hitters. The change-up from a lefty to a lefty ends up fading right back into the down-and-in wheelhouse that so many hitters love, but against a right-hander, the movement leads the ball away from the hitter, making it more effective. While the common belief is that a change-up is effective because of its speed, the movement of the pitch is also a big key.
Because both Jimenez and Feierabend feature quality change-ups and below average everything else, they really have nothing to throw left-handed hitters. Their mid-80s fastballs and crappy breaking balls hang like meatballs, and LH hitters simply tee off, just like Texas did last night. Against a line-up with more RH hitters, he’d have done better.
These reverse split type of pitchers are tough to find a role for, honestly. Because they don’t have anything to get LH hitters out, they’ll struggle in the rotation, and there aren’t many managers on earth who will use a southpaw as a bullpen specialist to get right-handed hitters. Realistically, both of them are probably looking at careers in long relief if they don’t learn how to spin a breaking ball to counteract left-handed bats.
That was the longest winning streak of the season
Four games… savor it while it’s still fresh in your memory.
Game 138, Mariners at Rangers
5:05, Feierabend vs McCarthy
Only triple of a season for the cycle
Scraps:
I wonder if anyone’s ever hit for the cycle and only had that one triple the whole season.
Sure, one: Olerud did it, June 16, 2001, his only triple of the year.
Buhner had three (three!) in 1993, when he did it. And Alex/Griffey, they hit triples like crazy.
Signs things are going right
Rich emailed:
I’d like to see maybe a list of things for people to look for that show the M’s making positive progress for 2009 and beyond. I’m not talking about the obvious stuff, but maybe a realistic look forward for some seriously dejected fans.
At the baseball operations level:
Team makes a good hire for their new GM
Yup, this is obvious, but even beyond “they hire a USSM dream candidate” it’s “they hire someone who isn’t a retread/doormat”
Fixes
The GM has a free hand to remake the roster and in a hurry, and gets into it
Organizational changes
New people are brought in to work in problem areas, and they have plans that make sense (“I’ve been thinking, maybe our hitting prospects should hit.”) The team brings in smart people to form the kind of analytical group other teams have.
Organizational philosophical indications
This may come as quickly as this next off-season. Who are they pursuing in free agency, and why? Are they repeating the same mistakes that got them into this hole, or are they making smarter decisions about how they pick pitchers? Are they putting together teams that play better defense? Are they spending money on veteran players that could easily be replaced with much cheaper alternatives? Who are they bringing in on minor league deals this spring?
For instance, the “role” thing — one of our huge, consistent problems in the Bavasi regime was the fixation on roles. “We’re looking for a left-handed designated hitter… there’s only one, let’s spend $5m. What, he sucks?”
The M’s are going to have some holes this off-season that can be solved in a couple ways:
– throwing money at veteran players who are established in those roles
– finding cheaper unlabeled alternatives
– abandoning the role label to do something really interesting.
Wins and efficiency
On a larger level, we should be able to step away from the team and see that they’re getting more for what they’re spending. 100 losses with this payroll should be an everyone’s fired moment. Intelligent spending and team-building will show up in both the team’s standings and in measures like $ spent per win.
Then, at the franchise level:
Team makes ownership group changes
See many, many previous rants about Lincoln and the ownership’s bafflement over getting their butt kicked year after year
Increased honesty
It’d be nice if the team for once didn’t actively lie to everyone about the year’s payroll and things like budgeting. I don’t want to write too much here, I’ll just get angry. Don’t wish too hard for this one. Especially without the previous item.
Increased openness
See here
Or you can just keep reading. We’ll try and keep you posted.
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This post was written as one of the requests by a USSM supporter as part of Thank You Content Week. Join them!
Yes, I’m playing around with the layout
Please do not panic.
And, as always: patches welcome.
Update: a L/R column update is coming.