Littlest Ball
K Johjima reached on infield single to shortstop, A Beltre scored, J Clement to third, M Cairo to second. 10 1
J Reed singled to right, J Clement scored, M Cairo to third, K Johjima to second. 10 2
I Suzuki grounded out to first, M Cairo scored, K Johjima to third, J Reed to second. 10 3
W Bloomquist reached on infield single to shortstop, K Johjima scored, J Reed to third. 10 4
B LaHair reached on infield single to shortstop, J Reed scored, W Bloomquist to second. 10 5
Ground ball to shortstop, single to right, ground ball to first, ground ball to shortstop, ground ball to shortstop = five runs.
What?
Yup
That’s what regression to the mean looks like. Call your college coach again, Jarrod, because you still suck.
Game 109, Orioles at Mariners
Garrett Olson v Jarrod Washburn.
Baker made a good argument about the Mariner-Yankee trade negotiations in his recent coverage: it’s that the M’s, if all it was going to be was a salary dump, had no incentive to make the deal then. They could just as easily salary dump the Bus through waivers by putting Washburn on waivers and letting anyone who claimed him take the contract (at which point they dust their hands off and congratulate themselves on a job well done). And maybe that’s the Yankees… but maybe it isn’t. Buuttt probably it is.
If I understand my Major League Rule 10 correctly, if there’s only one waiver claim, it goes to that team. If there’s two in the same league, lower record. If everyone claims, it’s the same league, worst record.
And there’s the crazy part: who in the AL holds a worse record than the Yankees and wants to take on that salary? It could well be that the Yankees demanded they give up nothing because they figured that if the M’s waived Washburn because they wanted to rid themselves of the contract, he’d wash up on their beach.
That’s a crazy rule, by the way. There are a bunch of teams in the NL contending with worse records and who could also afford Jarrod.
The downside, though, is that Washburn’s value right now exists as a precarious balance, where the massive cost of his remaining year-and-something looks worth taking on based on superficially good results lately — but there’s enough reluctance that teams wouldn’t give up premium prospects, or the M’s would have moved him. But the M’s need to move him for next year, and he’s just not that good.
What happens if Washburn’s starts give Washburn results, and his value plunges? The team may have to pay part of his deal to move him. But if he continues to pitch well, how much does his value go up? Each start risks the chance to rid the team of his 2009 salary.
Dave on KJR
I’ll be on with the Groz this afternoon at 4:05 pm. I’m sure we’ll talk about the trade that happened and the ones didn’t, and it should be fun as always.
Attention readers
Please proceed in an orderly fashion to your nearest bookstore, newsstand, or magazine-carrying outlet and purchase a copy of Asimov’s. It’s one of those science-fiction digests the size of a trade paperback but a lot thinner. That is all.
Game 108, Mariners at Rangers
5:05
M’s almost had an Ibanez deal
Nice bit of reporting work by Baker here.
And… that’s it
The trade deadline has come and gone, and it looks like the only move the M’s made was the high quality Rhodes-for-Hernandez swap this morning. They didn’t budge on their ridiculous demands for Jarrod Washburn, so he’s still here, and no one was willing to offer a package that could compete with the draft picks they’ll get for letting Ibanez walk at years end.
Pelekoudas gets an A for the Rhodes trade – he did quite well. He gets an incomplete for the Washburn and Ibanez situations, as both are still somewhat unresolved. The Mariners need to keep trying to move Washburn, putting him on waivers tomorrow and lowering their demands, now that the Yankees called their bluff. If they can dump him before end of August, not dealing him today won’t matter. If they keep him for the rest of the season and risk getting stuck with him, he gets an F for not taking advantage of dumping Wash when he could.
Overall, we have to be happy with the Rhodes trade, fine with them not trading Ibanez in lieu of getting the picks instead, and rooting like crazy for them to dump Washburn in the next 30 days.
One Hour To Go
New thread for the last little bit of the deadline rumors. Is Bay going to Tampa? Will Manny end up in LA? Will the M’s come to their senses and just give Washburn away?
We’ll find out soon enough.
M’s Trade Rhodes to Marlins
The M’s have traded Arthur Rhodes to Florida for RHP Gaby Hernandez. This is about as good a haul for Rhodes as you could expect. Hernandez isn’t a prime prospect, but he’s got a decent arm and there’s some potential there. He was the Mets 3rd round pick in ’04, went to Florda in the Paul Lo Duca deal, and has split time between Triple-A Albuquerque and Double-A Carolina.
His ERA isn’t good, but that doesn’t matter – his walk, strikeout, and ground ball rates are all right where they’ve been his entire career. The ERA is inflated by a high BABIP, which is probably just a combination of park effects (Albuquerque is a great place to hit), bad defense, and luck.
He throws 90-93 with a four seam fastball and uses a cutter, has a curve and a change that are both average-ish, and okay command. He’s just 22, and there’s room for growth, but right now, he projects as a #5 starter or good reliever.
Nice pickup by Pelekoudas.