A bounty of one SP Lager for anyone who gets a transcript
Ichiro’s pre-ASG speeches are apparently quite something.
“It’s hard to explain the effect that it has,” Morneau said. “You know, it’s such a tense environment, everyone’s kind of a little nervous for the game. He doesn’t say a lot the whole time he’s in there, and all of a sudden the manager gets done with his speech and he pops out. It’s pretty funny.”
I want more! The wisdom of Ichiro! is not to be hoarded, but shared!
No MLB Games? Go To Everett
So, because Major League Baseball thinks it’s a great idea to give us four days without a Mariner game (seriously, four days? Come on.), and because the all-star game and its festivities are boring and generally meaningless, we’d like to remind you that you can still see some actual real baseball this week, as the Everett Aquasox host the Eugene Emeralds up at Everett Memorial Stadium tonight.
Walter Suriel takes the mound tonight, and that should mean you’ll get to see some run scoring. No worry about a pitcher’s duel there. On a brighter note, however, the Aquasox actually have a couple of real hitters, led by second round pick Dennis Raben, who has destroyed the ball since signing with the Mariners. He’s the guy in the line-up you’ll want to watch.
The Aquasox are home through Wednesday, so you have three days to head up north and catch some real NWL action. Don’t miss out.
All-Time All-Mariner Roster: Left Field
Derek:
Phil Bradley, 1985, the best year in a three-year run from 1985-1987. Now, Bradley was no great shakes defensively, but this 1985 year… .300/.365/.498. That doesn’t look all that impressive on its surface, but in 1985, the league batted .261/.327/.406. Bradley, in raw stats terms, was a top-ten hitter in the league that year. Even docking him a little for the park, he was one of the best hitters in baseball that year, and the best left fielder in the AL. A huge, huge year.
Defensively, eyeballing the ill measures we have, Bradley comes out as average/slightly above average during his prime compared to his peers.
And it doesn’t take all that much with the M’s have had such bad left fielders for so long. Not a ton of competition. Offensively, Raul Ibanez is a long ways back and he’s terrible defensively which wipes him out. You might argue the total 2003 Winn package, or 1981 Paciorek, I guess… actually, I should let you pick instead of assuming you’re with me on this one.
Bradley’s been largely forgotten because he only played eight seasons, bouncing around for the last part of his career after toiling in the obscurity of Seattle, but he did great work over that three year span here.
Dave:
Thanks to the mid-season strike that wiped out two months of the 1981 season, Tom Paciorek’s performance that year won’t jump off the page in raw totals, but it’s the best LF season the M’s have ever gotten. He hit .326/.379/.509, finishing second in batting average, tenth in on base percentage, fourth in slugging percentage, and fourth in OPS. In 104 games, he was worth about 27 runs over an average hitter, which tied him for the fourth best mark in the A.L. that year.
Bradley was a top 10 hitter in 1985, but Paciorek was a top 5 hitter in 1981. Even with the shortened season leading to lower counting stats, Paciorek’s relative value that season was just a bit higher than Bradley’s was in 1985. 27 runs in 104 games for Paciorek works out to .26 runs per game above average, while Bradley’s 30 runs in 160 games rates out to .18 runs per game above average. Even if we factor a regression into Paciorek’s season line to account for the smaller sample of games, the difference between their two performances on a per game basis is too large for Bradley to close the offensive gap.
Unless there’s compelling reason to believe that Bradley swamps Paciorek defensively, I think it has to be the 1981 season here. Phil Bradley was definitely an underappreciated player who had a nice run as the M’s LF in the mid-80s, but he never had a season as good as Paciorek’s final year in Seattle. And, as Derek noted, there isn’t really any competition beyond these two – the LF spot has been a black hole for this franchise for a long, long time.
1981 Tom Paciorek. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
Derek:
Yup, you’re right. Plus, Paciorek played for Maury Wills, so you have to give him some credit for that. Good catch on the strike season, I didn’t consider that enough. Looking at his rate stats relative to the rest of the league is persuasive. I think I’d give defense to Bradley over Paciorek, but there’s not enough for me to say it overcomes the difference in their hitting.
My only concern, and you touched on this, is that in shortening seasons we would increasingly look at smaller and smaller sizes — and I think this is backed up in a way by Paciorek’s career. He never came close to replicating 1981’s brilliant performance. But like Brady Anderson’s monster season, it’s there, and for that year, he was more valuable to his team than Bradley was, relatively, over a longer season.
Interestingly, both players in the years we’re talking about displayed a level of versatility that would be curious today.
Paciorek, 1981, started 78 games in left, 11 games in center, and 14 games in right.
Bradley, 1985, started 124 games in left, 27 games in center, and 10 games in right.
When you look at recent Mariner teams, for instance, there’s almost no regulars starting that often at another position. I wonder how much of that is the increasing calcification of rosters: almost no manager today goes in for the kind of situational and matchup roster-flexing that used to be common (and quite effective). Even platooning’s looked down on now.
Anyway — if we picked Bradley, I think we’d be fine, it’s a perfectly defensible choice, but Paciorek was indeed more valuable in that season, even if that season was shorter.
Blank page issue
I’ve read a couple of reports since ~Friday that USSM in some situations was serving up blank pages. After returning from my annual self-torture, I’ve spent some time looking into it and I’m hoping it’s resolved. We’ll see, of course. And yes, this means I still constitute the whole of USSM’s tech support, and yes, I know that is… less than ideal. I’m doing as best I can. As always, email us with reports of weird site behavior.
Also: we’re still considering our long-term serving situation, and have no updates yet.
Game 96, Mariners at Royals
Silva v Davies. 11:10 our time
It’d be great to head into the break with a quality win.
Trades I’m Rooting For
With the trading deadline coming up, some different opportunities are starting to present themselves as chances for the Mariners to make some moves and help rebuild this roster. What follows are my suggestions (not rumors, not inside sources, suggestions) for three deals I’ll be rooting for the M’s to make.
Raul Ibanez to the Mets for LHP Jon Niese and 1B Mike Carp
The Mets are surging, but their outfield is a mess. Moises Alou is out for the year, and Ryan Church’s status is up in the air thanks to lingering concussion issues. Omar Minaya is going to make a move, so the M’s should put themselves in the forefront of his thoughts and convince him that Ibanez is the guy he wants. He has no problem emptying his farm system in attempts to win now, and Ibanez has the reputation to command more than he’s worth.
Niese is a 21-year-old southpaw with an average fastball and good curve who mixes his pitches well and is already succeeding in Double-A. He’s not a high upside guy, but as a potential #3/#4 starter, he’d help give the M’s a legitimate young pitching prospect who could potentially help the team as early as next year.
Carp is a 22-year-old left handed hitting first baseman with a good eye at the plate and gap power. Right now, he projects as a Lyle Overbay type, but there is room in his swing for some extra pop, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he grows into a 25 to 30 home run guy down the line.
Why The M’s Should Do This: Ibanez is obviously in decline, and 2008 might be the last year he’s a starting quality player. As such, he shouldn’t spend the rest of the year in Seattle. Niese and Carp give the M’s some moderate reward youngsters that could be useful players down the line.
Why The Mets Should Do This: They sold the farm to get Johan and they’re running down the Phillies in the east, but a Fernando Tatis/Endy Chavez combination isn’t going to work in RF/LF. While they would prefer to keep Niese and Carp, Ibanez will almost certainly be a Type A free agent, so if they offer him arbitration and let him leave in the winter, they’ll get two draft picks to replace the prospects they gave up. The addition of Ibanez for the stretch run and the draft picks makes it worth doing for New York
Yuniesky Betancourt to the Dodgers for Andre Ethier and Chin-Lung Hu
The Dodgers badly need a shortstop to make up for Furcal’s injury, and they don’t have a long term answer if they Rafael leave at years end. Betancourt would stop in and give them a huge offensive upgrade over Angel Berroa once they realize that Nomar is going to kill them at shortstop. Thanks to the contracts they gave Jones and Pierre, Ethier is somewhat expendable, and their need for a shortstop outweighs their need to keep him around.
Ethier is a 26-year-old left-handed outfielder who doesn’t have any one special skill but has a solid all around game. He’s solid defensively and hits RHPs quite well, and while he’s not going to be a star, his combination of offense and defense would make him one of the M’s best players, and his style of hitting is a good fit for Safeco Field.
Hu is a 22-year-old 2B/SS who is terrific defensively and has a questionable bat. He might end up as a defensive replacement, but if the bat develops at all, he could be a nice option to hold down one of the middle infield spots for a few years.
Why The M’s Should Do This: The M’s need to vastly improve their defense to help the contact pitchers on the staff, and bringing Ethier to replace Ibanez and committing to finding a new shortstop is a good step in that direction. Betancourt’s defensive reputation hasn’t matched his performance the last few years, and his swing-at-everything approach is too repetitive in this line-up. Betancourt’s not going to develop into the star the organization hoped he would, so trading him now before other teams realize that is the right way to begin rebuilding a bad group of position players.
Why The Dodgers Should Do This: The Dodgers production from SS since Furcal got hurt has been as bad as the M’s DH production. They need a guy who can fill that gap while they make a playoff run, and Betancourt would be the best SS on the market. Yes, they lose Ethier, but they’re committed to getting at-bats to Pierre and Jones, so he wasn’t going to play enough in LA as is, and if they need to pick up another OF to replace his loss, that’s easier than finding a shortstop.
Jarrod Washburn and Jose Lopez for Chris Duncan and Jamie Garcia
The Cardinals aren’t going to give up Colby Rasmus, so they’re not going to get a frontline starter to match what the Brewers and Cubs have added, but they’re still going to make a move to try and stay in the race. With their rotation struggling to stay healthy, Washburn would give them a 5th starter that would give them predictable results, while Lopez would solidify their long time second base hole for both this year and the future.
Duncan is a 27-year-old first baseman who has played some LF, but is St. Louis’ version of Raul Ibanez out there. He’s suffered a power outage this year, but he’d shown some real power from the left side the last few years, and he’s also more than willing to draw a walk. If he finds his power again, he’d be the M’s best hitter.
Why The M’s Should Do This: Getting rid of Washburn is a plus, so this deal breaks down from their perspective as Lopez for Duncan and Garcia. While he’s having a nice resurgent year with the bat, his defense has become a problem, and the M’s need to transition away from right handed free swingers. With Orlando Hudson and Mark Ellis hitting free agency this winter, they’d be able to spend some money to fill the hole created by his departure, while Duncan would give them a 1B/DH option and Garcia would give them another good young left-handed arm.
Why The Cardinals Should Do This: If St. Louis is going to hang with Milwaukee in the wild card race, they need a starter and a second baseman, and this is the only place they’ll find both in the same package. Washburn should be fine in the NL, and since neither he or Lopez are free agents at years end, they’re not mortgaging the future for a rent a player. Duncan doesn’t have a role with the Cards, and while Garcia is a tough arm to give up, questions about his command and durability make him the kind of higher risk arm that you can move in a deal where you get a 24-year-old sescond baseman who is under contract for three more years.
If the M’s made all three of these deals, they’d set themselves up to have a good off-season and contend in 2009. Yes, they’d have to get a new middle infield, but this is a good winter to go shopping for second baseman, and there are shortstops like Ronny Cedeno who will be available in trade in a few months. They add a few legitimate major league hitters to a line-up that needs some, pick up a couple solid young arms, shed a bit of payroll, and get a chance to build around position players who can both create runs and play a little defense.
The Best Development Of The Year
Watching Brandon Morrow improve has certainly been one of the silver linings in this cloudy season, and while I’m not rooting for him to implode, I think we should all recognize that him blowing back to back save opportunities might be the best thing that’s happened all year long.
Really, Morrow was dangerously close to earning the proven closer label that gets stuck on anyone who racks up a few saves (just ask Joe Borowski). With his struggles giving up the long ball lately (which really shouldn’t be a huge surprise – he throws a hard four seam fastball up in the zone a lot), that label isn’t going to stick as easily now, and his chance of moving into the rotation in the future improve with every blown save.
That’s how baseball works – the worse Morrow does in the closer’s role, the more likely he’ll end up helping the team more as a starter. It’s a little messed up, but there you go – thanks for not being perfect, Brandon.
Game 95, Mariners at Royals
The Bus vs Gil Meche.
Of the two, Meche is being paid about $2m more for this season
Meche 08: 6.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1 HR/9
Washburn 08: 5.6 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9
Make of that what you will.
Tug Hulett starts at DH. Nothing against Tug, but… yea, that’s the season in a nutshell.
Dog bites man, Vidro is terrible and shouldn’t be hitting #4
.217/.265/.316
That’s Vidro’s line when he was written into the cleanup spot tonight.
What kind of protection is this supposed to be? You could not find a worse non-Vidro hitter to bat behind Ibanez without taking a Tony Pena Jr-type player who plays a premium defensive position.
Johjima’s hitting worse than Vidro, but not by much. Where’s he batting? 6th, rarely, 7th, more often, 8th most of the time.
Yet there are other fans who may have it worse. Who’s as bad as Vidro, offensively, on other teams? Bartlett, in Tampa. He bats #9. That’s good, makes sense… Michael Bourn, in Houston. He bats #1. Gathright bats #1 or #9. Freddy Sanchez bats first or second.
Yeaaagh.
Vidro’s terrible. He’s not protecting anything, no matter what Riggleman says. The essential proposition of protection is that by being in front of a good hitter, the protected hitter sees more fastballs because — well, it starts to break down in practice, and there’s not a lot of evidence that protection does much for even the best hitters.
But just dwell on the insanity of this for a moment. The manager is claiming that the performance of Ibanez is improved by having one of the worst hitters in the major leagues, one with absolutely no value at the plate, behind him.
To the reputation question: how long, exactly, are we supposed to believe that teams will pursue a poor strategy because of old information? Every team’s employing video guys, advance scouts, and producing reports for their pitchers on how to go after each hitter.
Vidro’s probably just reads “throw pitch”.
Or one word: “Done.”
Are we really supposed to believe that other teams are producing scouting reports that read “Was once kind of good ten years ago, be careful! Don’t be afraid to walk him instead of giving him something he can put into play for an out.”
No. Of course not. It’s absurd. If that were true, and Vidro’s fearsome reputation helped him hit better, he wouldn’t be at .217/.265/.316.
But really — how long? Are we talking about his fearsome 2007, when he hit .314 and drew some walks with no power to be a little above league average (as a DH)? Or is this the remnant of his 2001-2003 run, when he hit some home runs to go with his doubles?
Meanwhile, Vidro, one of the worst hitters in baseball, gets middle-of-the-order at bats behind a rare productive offensive sequence. He gets more at-bats than the guys behind him who are more productive… like Reed, for instance, who at .260/.322/356 is a substantially better hitter in every sense even with that unimpressive line.
Batting Vidro at #4, even thinking that Vidro at #4 is defensible, requires someone to hold a set of beliefs that are variously long-disproved, unbelievable, wishful thinking, and deluded.
Unless they’re losing on purpose. If so… well played.
Game 94, Mariners at Royals
Felix Day! wooo! The return of Felix Day!
Felix v Hochevar, 5:10 our time