Reitsma and Rhodes reassigned; bullpen questions linger
The M’s told Chris Reitsma that he wouldn’t be making the opening day roster today, so he’s now deciding whether he wants to head to Tacoma or become a free agent (technically, he doesn’t have the contractual right to do this, but the M’s aren’t going to hold him hostage). I’m hoping for the latter, so the M’s won’t ever be tempted by his veteranocity and give him a role he doesn’t deserve down the line.
So, with Reitsma out of the picture, the bullpen picture becomes a bit clearer, but questions remain. Here’s what we know:
J.J. Putz works the 9th inning in games where the M’s lead by 3 runs or less.
Sean Green and Eric O’Flaherty will work the 7th and 8th innings of close games.
R.A. Dickey will be the mopup guy when the game gets out of hand.
That leaves several holes, with roster spots going to three of Brandon Morrow, Mark Lowe, Arthur Rhodes, Ryan-Rowland Smith, and Cha Seung Baek, assuming the M’s go with a 12 man pitching staff again. I’d call that very likely at this point, especially considering Morrow’s questionable status.
If we assume that Morrow is healthy enough to start the year on the active roster, he’s in for one of the spots. Depending on how he performs, he’d likely start the year in the 7th inning right-hander role with a chance to overtake Green for the 8th inning role if he figures out how to throw strikes with regularity.
So that leaves two spots. Rhodes thinks he’s ready, but the organization doesn’t seem to agree (edit: They told him he’s not making the club on opening day, so looks were right in this case), if you take their public comments at face value. However, with O’Flaherty the only lefty in the pen, it’s a lock that he or Rowland-Smith will make the team, as I can’t fathom John McLaren being willing to only take one lefty into the season. The two southpaws are fighting for one spot, and my gut says it goes to Rowland-Smith.
That leaves one spot for Cha Seung Baek or Mark Lowe. If they choose Lowe, they lose Baek, as he’s out of options and there is zero chance he’ll clear waivers. If they choose Baek, they can send Lowe to Tacoma and keep both in the organization. That would seemingly give Baek a big advantage, but the coaches aren’t convinced that Baek profiles well as a reliever and, with Morrow’s effectiveness in doubt, they’d like another power right-hander on the staff if he struggles early. So, Lowe fits the profile of the pitcher they would prefer, and that neutralizes the option scenario, making it a tough call.
I’m guessing the team ends up going with Baek, at least for the first two games. If Morrow struggles in the opening series against Texas, Lowe could be on the flight to Baltimore while they’d hope they could sneak Baek through waivers just a couple days into the season.
So, my gut feeling on the opening day bullpen: Putz, Green, O’Flaherty, Morrow, Rowland-Smith, Baek, and Dickey. This, of course, assumes the M’s don’t make any moves to bring in someone from outside the organization. If they do, may I suggest David Aardsma? Boston might not have room for him, and he’s basically Morrow’s equal at this point, with the added benefit of being able to get lefties out.
It’s certainly not the strength it has been in previous years, and getting to J.J. could be a little bit hairy this year.
M’s fall to second place
A’s win, and Harden looks great doing it.
I made a passing comment about how ridiculous this was, and it generated some good comments I’d like to address. My problems are, more or less:
– I don’t like having a single series this far early
– I don’t like that MLB fans here couldn’t easily watch, much less attend
– I don’t like having any team’s home opener in a different city
– It’s crazy that they’re following real games with more spring training games
– I don’t like that the two teams have to play through spring training, these games, and then go back to spring training and into the season under different roster constraints than everyone else
I absolutely support MLB’s attempts to broaden the game’s international reach. I love Japanese baseball, and thought it was great to see the crowds and everything. I just don’t like how this was done. That’s all.
McClaren seemingly leading towards Lopez as #2
I don’t think lineup order matters all that much, though as we head into the season I’ll try to make a much longer post on this. But Jose Lopez over Vidro — well, it’d be an upgrade if he’s the Lopez we’ve been pulling for, and if he’s the Lopez we saw too much of last year, it’ll be ugly. Here’s hoping. The AP article says “Jose Lopez is likely to be hitting second in the Seattle Mariners’ lineup next week when Seattle opens the regular
season against Texas.” but the actual quote from McLaren’s not as strong:
“We’re thinking about it strongly, I think that’s safe to say,” McLaren said Tuesday. “He’s hit behind the runner. He’s swinging at more strikes. I’m not going to say it’s 100 percent but we’re leaning that way.”
Ryan Rowland-Smith’s time in Venezuela
Fun reading: check it out. h/t to WJ Duffy for the email.
Red Sox beat A’s a week early
I’m all for expanding the game’s reach internationally, but having the Red Sox and A’s play a live game a week ahead of the season’s actual start is ridiculous. The Red Sox won.
Opening Day a week away
And yet no extensions for Ibanez/Bloomquist. I’m as surprised as anyone.
Another set of simulations using projections
From the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog: using DMB and the CHONE projections, 1,000 seasons of Mariner baseball came out with the M’s finishing 83-79 and making the playoffs 20% of the time.
Many caveats and disclaimers apply, as with all these kind of things — check out the article for more.
USSM on KJR
Just a reminder that I’ll be on with the Groz at 2:20 pm today (and every Monday from now through the season) on KJR as we prepare for the MLB season to kick off tomorrow morning and for the M’s to get going next week.
Community Projections: Felix Hernandez
In the second of our reviews of how the USSM/LL community expects the Mariners pitching staff to do (Jeff Sullivan will be starting the hitter reviews shortly), we tackle King Felix. Data first from the 65 projections, then commentary:
Average Projection: 204 IP, 192 H, 31 2B, 4 3B, 19 HR, 55 BB, 197 K, 6 HBP, 56% GB%, 3.38 FIP
Optimist (snoss): 207 IP, 200 H, 32 2B, 7 3B, 13 HR, 58 BB, 232 K, 7 HBP, 52% GB%, 2.72 FIP
Pessimist (Gomez): 200 IP, 208 H, 34 2B, 3 3B, 21 HR, 57 BB, 173 K, 12 HBP, 61% GB%, 3.87 FIP
Dave’s Projection: 200 IP, 190 H, 30 2B, 5 3B, 20 HR, 44 BB, 196 K, 10 HBP, 60% GB%, 3.35 FIP
Jeff’s Projection: 203 IP, 193 H, 38 2B, 3 3B, 20 HR, 60 BB, 189 K, 4 HBP, 61% GB%, 3.56 FIP
Quick note – there’s actually two projections with a higher FIP than Gomez’s 3.87 (Trev is the highest at 3.99) but both of them project very low hit totals, so while they’re slightly more pessimistic about Felix’s abilities, they apparently thinks our defense is going to be amazing. Thus, I couldn’t in good conscience call them pessimistic projections, so Gomez gets the Nattering Nabob of Negativity award of the day.
One of the first things that jump off the page is the similarity of all the projections. No one projects a FIP higher than 4.00 and only seven people project a FIP below 3.00, leading to a large group of people all hovering right around the average projection without much variance. When people disagree, they do it in shades; a dozen strikeouts here or ten innings there. Interestingly, the optimists and pessimists mostly just differ on home run rate in small magnitudes, ranging from 15 allowed for the optimists and 22 for the pessimists. As we’ve talked about, home run rates have a lot of non-pitcher factors involved, so a lot of the difference here isn’t even disagreements about Felix’s abilities, but rather just how those abilities will translate over 35 starts.
Again, no one thinks he’s going to get hurt – the low IP projection was 175 innings, with the second lowest being 189. So you all think Felix is going to be a picture of health. That’s good news.
Overall, this is another optimistic projection, though not as extreme as Bedard’s. The 3.35 FIP will make Felix an easy all-star, but the hit projections mean that you guys think he’s still going to struggle with balls in play, and that makes it unlikely that he’ll post an ERA low enough to get in the Cy Young race, especially if Bedard’s as good as you all think. However, this projection still represents a strong step forward and would establish Felix as one of the game’s elite pitchers rather than just elite talents.
Fourth Outfielder
The M’s came to spring training with the fourth outfielder job up for grabs. The competitors – Mike Morse, Wladimir Balentien, Charlton Jimerson, and Jeremy Reed – have all displayed their various skills and flaws, and right now, it should be pretty apparent to the M’s that none of the four are the right fit. Morse is as much an adventure in the outfield as Ibanez, which isn’t surprising given his minimal experience. Balentien is better served playing every day in Tacoma. Jimerson just isn’t good enough to play a real role on a contender. And Jeremy Reed is left-handed, just like all three of the Mariners starting outfielders.
Really, the M’s fourth OF should be some combination of the following: right-handed (and,
thanks to Safeco, probably a gap hitter, not a power guy), ability to hit LHPs, strong defensively (ability to cover CF a huge plus), solid to plus baserunner, some modicum of plate discipline. The ideal fourth OF for the M’s would have all those skills, but a hodgepodge of most of them would do okay and be better than the internal options. Where would they find such a player at this point?
Well, Reed Johnson just got released by Toronto and is looking for work. Let’s look at the checklist:
1. Right Handed gap hitter?
Yep.
2. Ability to hit LHPs?
.308/.371/.462 career mark against southpaws.
3. Strong defensively?
Pretty much every metric has him as a very good defensive corner outfielder and average-ish in center.
4. Solid to plus baserunner?
Has some speed, but isn’t a huge asset on the bases. Probably not.
5. Modicum of plate discipline?
Career walk rate of 5.4%, K rate of 18.4%, while most projections have him at 6% and 19% respectively. So no, not so much.
An average projection for Reed Johnson would probably come out to .270/.320/.380 in Safeco, or something along those lines. That’s not a great player, but combined with above average defense and a skillset that fills in the gaps left by the M’s starting outfielders, he’d be an asset.
The M’s repeatedly say they’re serious about winning this year. If that’s true, they should immediately throw Miguel Cairo overboard and replace him with Reed Johnson.