The next stretch
The next three games against the Yankees are as important to the Wild Card race as the series against the Angels was. The M’s have to take some games out of New York here. If they’re swept and five games down in the race against the Yankees with just over three weeks in the schedule, that’s over. And then they face Detroit, where they’re likely to face much the same situation: if they come out of the Detroit series behind the Tigers and the Yankees by two games, that’s it too.
On the other hand — winning cures all. Beating up on New York and then Detroit would put them right back into this, and the difference in schedules wouldn’t make that big a difference over such a short period of time. They’d have a chance at it.
But look at the matchups. Super-commenter msb laid them out in the game thread, and it’s uphill.
Yankees:
Felix against “TBA” (Clemens may still make this start, though roughed up)
Ramirez against Wang
Washburn against Hughes
It’s hard not to look at that three-game matchup without dread. Do our playoff hopes really rest on Horacio stealing one in Yankee Stadium against Wang? Yeagh.
And then against Detroit, we’re likely going to see
Batista against Robertson
Weaver against Bonderman
Felix against who knows.
Better, but still.
Six big games. I’d feel a lot better about the team’s chance of climbing back into contention if I hadn’t seen all the (televised) losses (and listened to the radio-only).
Game 135, Mariners at Blue Jays
10:07 again, Weaver v Burnett. M’s roll out the standard lineup with Broussard.
Since the 25th, the M’s odds of making the playoffs, as calculated at Baseball Prospectus, have almost been snuffed. We all knew the series against the Angels was critical to their hopes of winning the division, but the wild card’s rapidly slipping away, too.
Division chances went from 29.6% on August 25th to today’s 2%
Wild card chances went from 30% on August 24th to today’s 10%
It’s possible they can come back from this, but they’ve got to win, and win, and win. When Ramirez lost, some people said he pitched well enough that he deserved the win, but that’s got to be Batista yesterday, and it wasn’t enough. We need Good Weaver today, with the good offense, because there isn’t time left to keep losing.
Game 134, Mariners at Blue Jays
10:07? What the heck is that. I don’t want to be making coffee before a game.
Batista v McGowan.
The M’s lineup is 50% back to the old one for a day-after-night:
CF-L Ichiro
DH-B Vidro
RF-R Guillen
LF-L Ibanez
3B-R Beltre
1B-L Broussard
2B-R Lopez
C-R Burke
SS-R Betancourt
Lopez, it appears, found his way out of the doghouse.
Game 158, Indians at Mariners
Game Two game thread.
Game 158, Indians at Mariners
Game Two Game Thread.
The September call-ups, with light commentary
Dave may have some more insightful commentary, but I thought I’d talk about the callups. Several sources, including the broadcast today, report the M’s callups as:
Saturday:
OF-R Mike Morse
OF-R Charleton Jimerson
C-R Rob Johnson
LHP Ryan Feierabend
LHP John Parrish
with RHP Sean White coming off the DL
Then after the Pacific Coast League season ends:
OF-L Jeremy Reed
OF-R Wladimir Balentien
2B-R Nick Green
C-L Jeff Clement
They cleared room on the 40m by moving Oswaldo Navarro, Jake Woods, Rene Rivera, and Mike Wilson off.
Will they get any use, though? On the pitching side, sure. The M’s bullpen, post-callup, would be more left-handed:
LHP Ryan Feierabend
LHP Eric O’Flaherty
LHP John Parrish
LHP Ryan Rowland-Smith
LHP George Sherrill
RHP Sean Green
RHP Brandon Morrow
RHP Putz
RHP Rick White
RHP Sean White
If the starters continue to have short outings, you can see where they’ll get into this really quickly. The addition of Parrish means that the M’s will now have two veteran supposed pitchers. Mmm.
You can also begin throwing darts at who the team’s thinking about giving Horacio Ramirez’s starts too. I’ve got as little insight into this as anyone.
For position players, I agree with Jason Churchill. Barring injury, I think the only guy on that side we might see get some starts is Nick Green. The team’s pretty down on Lopez right now, which reminds me — here’s a comment from Dave Paisley, who started with a moving seven day average of Jose Vidro’s offensive performance:
Continuing from the previous thread with 7 day average OPS, here’s Jose Lopez. His brother died on or just before June 13, or roughly game 60. You do the math. He’s never been the same since, although he had been on a bit of an uptick lately.
Nick’s hitting .337/383/.604 in his time with us in AAA this year, they like his D at second. He’s too old to be a prospect, but right now the organization’s frustrated enough with Lopez that they’re playing Vidro out there, and they have to know that’s a huge defensive hit. Of course, putting Green out at second would mean they have to push Vidro to the bench or somewhere, which could squeeze Jones more. At the least, we’ll hopefully see them be aggressive about putting a defensive sub in for Vidro on days he plays second.
Which reminds me: if they were willing to, you could totally Earl Weaver this. Announce your lineup with 2B Green in a late slot (say, 7 or 8). The M’s get put down in order the first two innings, probably, but when it’s Green’s spot you PH Vidro for him, leave Vidro in at second, and then pull Vidro immediately after one of his at-bats to get Jose Lopez or Bloomquist in for defense. But that’s just me. I’d be such an annoying manager trying to squeeze those kind of matchups (and go ahead: tell me that’s not realistic or possible in today’s game, even if Weaver did stuff like that)
Morse might get some pinch-hitting chances, though it’s hard to see how, since the team’s already reluctant to platoon players like Raul who seem to cry out for it. Morse’s defense makes you want to use-and-dispose, though. Balentien taking the field wouldn’t be the same disaster.
Which reminds me: Dave rightly smacked me for saying both Jones and Balentien were ready, when they’re pretty far apart in how they’d do if you played them both, and he’s right. Even if you believe the Balentien-made-the-jump contingent, he’s not yet the offensive talent Jones is.
Reed. The last time we saw him steam was pouring out of his ears after he stormed out of spring training when they told him of his demotion.
The catching duo’s nice to have around, but with Johjima/Burke, it’s hard to see where they would make any impact.
Game 133, Mariners at Blue Jays
Washburn vs Marcum, 4:07 pm on the West Coast.
In what I expect to become something like the new standard line-up for a little while, at least, we have the following:
1. Ichiro, CF
2. Vidro, 2B
3. Guillen, RF
4. Ibanez, DH
5. Beltre, 3B
6. Broussard, 1B
7. Johjima, C
8. Jones, LF
9. Betancourt, SS
Jones essentially replaces Jose Lopez. The outfield defense gets better, the infield defense gets worse. On a night with Jarrod Washburn starting, that’s the right way to do it if you’re going to punt defense somewhere.
Anatomy of a losing streak
No real analysis required, so here’s some numbers instead. During the losing streak:
Offense: 216 PA, .262/.298/.332, .630 OPS, 19 runs scored (3.16 Runs per game)
Ichiro:.238/.273/.333
Vidro: .250/.308/.292 (.278/.328/.389 over 61 PA in his last 13 games – is he still on fire?)
Guillen: .208/.240/.250
Ibanez: .273/.360/.273
Beltre: .304/.320/.435
Sexson: .167/.214/.167
Johjima: .500/.500/.550 (9 singles, 1 double, no walks in 20 PA)
Lopez: .286/.286/.357
Betancourt: .222/.222/.333
Johjima is the only guy who hit at all the last six games, and even that was all singles. The two through six middle of the order hitters combined for as much power as you’d expect from a pitcher, but it’s not like Betancourt or Ichiro were on base much to be driven in anyway.
The bullpen issues have been covered, but let’s not overlook that the offense hasn’t really picked up their teammates either.
Veteran Relievers
Scheduling Note: No KJR gig with Groz today..
The Mariners quest for a veteran relief pitcher has led them through a series of arms this year.
Last ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ Reitsma 7.61 23.7 37 22 20 3 9 11 56 Parrish 8.44 5.3 12 5 5 0 2 1 50 White 5.79 4.7 9 4 3 0 3 3 74 Total 7.48 33.7 58 31 28 3 14 15 58
34 innings, 58 hits, 31 runs, 14 walks, 15 strikeouts, and a combined ERA that is 42 percent below the league average for all pitchers (significantly worse when compared to just relievers).
Being old does not equal being good. Learn from your mistakes. Talent > Experience.
This one is earned
Some losing streaks are a collection of tough breaks – a blooper here, a blown call there, and all of the sudden, you’ve lost a few games in a row.
This is not that. The Mariners have earned this six game losing streak – the one that’s essentially taken their playoff chances and ground them into powder. Through sheer ridiculous stubbornness and a complete lack of understanding of real baseball strategy, John McLaren punted tonights game. Just threw a win right out the window.
The Mariners didn’t deserve to win tonight’s game, even though they had it in their grasp. As an organization, they’ve put people in charge who simply aren’t capable of making enough good decisions to create a team that wins enough games to be considered a contender.
John McLaren simply doesn’t understand how to manage a roster. In game strategy isn’t everything, but it’s part of the job, and he fails at it.