M’s Pitchers Stopped Giving Up HRs All the Time: Approach Change, Schedule, or Luck?
If you’ve read this blog for any length of time, you’re familiar with me rambling on at length about home runs and their increasing importance for run scoring. Since the recent HR explosion began (now confirmed to be largely due to a change in the ball), the M’s in particular have suffered as they’ve given up a disporportionate number of dingers, which has dwarfed some real improvement in other areas. That is, K:BB ratio is wonderful, but it’s less wonderful if any improvement in controlling the zone is accompanied by a flurry of home runs, and unfortunately, that’s where the M’s found themselves.
In April, things looked much the same: the M’s had the second-highest HR/9 behind Cincinnati. Their record wasn’t too bad, but the dingers and some dinger-related blowouts meant that their run differential wasn’t great. Their offense hit enough to overcome a sub-par rotation, at least when James Paxton wasn’t pitching. How has May looked? Really, really different. The M’s allowed *the fewest HRs* in all of baseball, and that’s enabled them to post the highest fWAR in the game, just ahead of the historically-great Astros (technically, the Astros were better on a rate basis, but still…Holy $&%^). The M’s had a weakness, and not only has that issue stopped being a problem, it’s a massive, out-of-nowhere strength. What the hell happened here?
There are, of course, a number of possibilities, and I’ve listed a few in the title. I don’t have a definitive answer, so don’t go searching for one. When dealing with month splits, you’re not going to have any kind of clear-cut, verifiable conclusions: there’s not enough data. That said, we can walk through a couple of possibilities and see what we see.
1: The M’s Changed Their Approach
To look into this, I got each team’s pitch mix as measured by Pitch Info from Fangraphs. I looked at 2017, as well. There are a number of ways to see who’s throwing a lot of fastballs, as there are multiple fastball types – four-seamers, sinkers, and then cutters/splitters. For a lot of analysis I do, I typically limit things to four-seam and sinkers (and, as applicable, the old category of two-seamers). But here, it might be valuable to look at cutters as well. While some cutters are definitely more breaking ball-like, others really are just versions of a fastball, as someone like Nick Vincent (or Kenley Jansen) shows. So, we can do it both ways.
What you see is that there are a few teams that are especially reliant on one type of fastball or another, and then there are teams that have really moved away from fastballs and have shifted towards breaking balls and change-ups. The Pirates are a good example of the former, while the Yankees attracted a lot of attention as the exemplar of the latter approach. In 2017, the M’s were really middle-of-the-road: they ranked 15th in four-seam+sinker usage, and 10th if you include cutters. They used a four-seam or sinker about 56% of the time. THat’s dramatically more than the Yankees’ 41%, but *everyone* was dramatically more than that. It was well shy of the Pirates’ 63% usage, which was driven by the the highest rate of sinkers in the game. For four-seamers, the Rockies led the way, something I mentioned when the M’s faced them last year – they thumbed their nose at the HR explosion by throwing a ton of four-seam fastballs *in Coors* and posted surprisingly low HRs-allowed numbers. The M’s bet big on their OF defense last year, and thus prized pitchers who threw rising four-seamers (and would’ve thrown even more if Drew Smyly had been healthy), so they ranked 6th in four-seamers, and quite low in sinkers. They were middle of the pack in cutters, but there are quite a bit fewer of those.
In 2018, their pitch mix has changed markedly. Their four-seamer usage has plunged from 6th down to 27th, and while their sinker rate has increased, it hasn’t offset the decline in four-seamers. Thus, if we measure *just* four-seamers and sinkers, the M’s go from a middle-of-the-pack team to the 25th-ranked team for FB usage. But a fairly large chunk of those missing/eschewed four-seamers have become cutters (thanks Mike Leake and Marco Gonzales), so now the philosophical discussion about what bucket to put cutters in becomes pretty relevant. If you put them in the fastball bin, the M’s overall FB usage rate hasn’t changed *at all*. It was at 62.6% in 2017, and it’s at 62.9% now. If you put them in the breaking ball bin, the story’s pretty clearly one of the M’s ditching FBs in favor of bendy pitches – even if that story’s complicated by the fact that cutters are perhaps the least bendy of pitches. It’s also relevant to us in that the pitch classified as the cutter is one of James Paxton’s favored pitches. HE uses it as a breaking ball, whereas Leake/Gonzales use it more as a fastball. In any event, it seems relevant that the M’s rotation is full of pitchers who throw one, even if they exemplify the fact that “cutter” is something of a catch-all term.
Still, isn’t there some kind of impact from turning four-seamers into cutters? Yes, there certainly should be. The league has put up a .320 wOBA on cutters, compared to a .339 mark against four-seamers and .340 against sinkers. They typically have some platoon split issues, and that’s true here, but there’s some evidence they’re harder to drive. The average exit velocity off of a cutter is a full 2 MPH lower than against sinkers, and a touch more than that against four-seamers. A lower percentage of balls in play against cutters were classified as “barrels” by MLB than against four-seamers (though here it’s worth noting that sinkers went as barrels even less often). So, platoon splits be damned, there’s some evidence that a shift like this should result in lower HRs. And that’s what we’ve seen.
Still, even just limiting things to four-seamers/sinkers, the M’s haven’t had the most dramatic change in approach – that title probably goes to the Rockies, who’ve cut FA+SI usage by over 11 percentage points. Like the M’s, they’re throwing more cutters to fill the gap. The Cardinals and Tigers are neck and neck as teams who’ve shifted away from fastballs AND cutters, while the Twins, Cubs, and especially Braves have moved the other direction. If you think of cutters more as breaking balls, the M’s have closed the bendy gap with the Yankees, just without the wave of sliders: the M’s throw a decent number of curves as well as cutters and change-ups.
But to assess if this is responsible for the M’s change in HRs-allowed, we need to see if they’ve changed their approach within 2018, right? Again, small numbers, but there’s some evidence that they have. In April, they threw 51% FA+SIs, while in May that’s dropped a bit to just under 50. That’s obviously not enough to account for the sharp drop in HRs, so the bigger story is lower HRs per fastball. Still, it’s notable that the M’s are throwing more curves than ever before.
Verdict: It’s probably not the change in FB mix or pitch mix overall, but this bears watching. The M’s thought they could throw a bunch of four-seamers in Safeco, got burned, and now aren’t daring teams to elevate four-seamers anymore. I like that.
2: The M’s played teams that can’t hit. Er, can’t hit HRs. Or no, just can’t hit.
One of the logical consequences of a league with superteams AND an unbalanced schedule is that you should see a number of runs where teams give up runs by the bushel and others where they post higher fWAR than the Astros over the course of a month. Is this what’s going on?
Again, it’s going to be impossible to answer, but let’s try something simple. The M’s have faced several teams in May: the A’s (6 times), the Angels (3X), the Tigers (7X), the Twins (4X) the Jays (3X) and Rangers (3X). Those teams have homered varying amounts, but if we simply divide HRs per game, we get a rough and dirty expected number of dingers. If the A’s homered their customary amount (1.22 per game), they’d be expected to hit 7.33 against the M’s in 6 games. They actually hit 4. Doing this for the entire schedule, we get an expected number of HRs allowed of 28.35 versus an actual number of just 18. Did luck play a role? Sure. Did the Tigers/Twins being two of the worst power-hitting teams help? Sure. But even with that, you’d have expected the M’s to give up a few more.
The problem with this theory is that the M’s haven’t ONLY played the Twins/Tigers, as much as I’d like that. The A’s/Angels really are good power hitting teams, and the M’s held those teams in check. Things will change in June as the M’s face a much tougher slate of teams, but it surprised ME to see how many games the M’s had against some teams that are decent at hitting dingers during this brilliant run of pitching form.
Verdict: They played some bad hitting teams, but they played some pretty good ones, too. Not buying this.
3: Maybe this is just luck, right?
By statcast’s wOBA-xwOBA measure – actual results versus predicted results using launch angle and exit speed – the M’s have been pretty fortunate in May, with a .317 actual wOBA allowed versus an expected .372. The M’s defense is absolutely a part of this story, as their BABIP-allowed plunged this month. Given what we’ve seen in recent games, is it possible that Safeco’s playing more as a pitcher’s part again? Er, no – the M’s have been “luckier” this month in road games. Paxton’s no-no in Toronto’s a perfect example where some very hard hit balls were reeled in by M’s defenders in defiance of your nerdy “hit percentage” values.
Still, even if you think xwOBA measures luck (as opposed to something else), the real story is that the M’s actual and expected wOBA-allowed dropped *so bloody much* compared to April. The M’s were nearly as “lucky” by the same measure that month, it’s just that both numbers were shifted upwards.
Verdict: Yes and no. Yes, the M’s have been fortunate this month, but they seem to be pitching better, too. Their K-BB% is better, driven by a decline in walks.
Things will get tougher, but for now it’s worth noting that the team’s rotation has stepped up at just the right time, staving off a decline in offense. They’ve beaten the teams they should beat, sure, but they’ve fared better against some relatively tough teams as well. I still don’t know how, as even the shift away from four-seamers isn’t enough to explain this. Leaguewide, the HR rate has grown with the temperature from April to May, but it’s tumbled for the M’s. Long may this continue; I’d love to think that the M’s really figured something out, even if I’m still not sure what that thing is.
Game 51, Twins at Mariners
Wade LeBlanc vs. Jake Odorizzi, 7:10
The M’s are 30-20 after 50 games, and while you can point to an easier schedule in May, the club’s pitching seems to be improving at just the right time. The bullpen got better yesterday, my grumpy diatribe notwithstanding. I’d love the M’s to start growing their own, but I get the sense of urgency that being-in-wild-card-position brings.
I’m out in Eastern Washington, driving through small towns from Republic to Nespelem to Grand Coulee and I have to say it was notable how many M’s hats/shirts/stickers I saw. The whole region wants to believe, and probably *does* believe in the team more than your scribe, whose love is unconditional yet guarded. But seeing those hats in remote Washington, as my daughter spotted a Felix shirsey makes me realize that you’ve got to stop worrying about development and love Wade LeBlanc’s devil magic.
1: Segura, SS
2: Heredia, CF
3: Haniger, RF
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Healy, 1B
7: Gamel, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Romine, 2B
SP: LeBlanc
M’s Trade for Denard Span/Alex Colome
By now, you probably know that I don’t quite get how the Mariners front office evaluates players or their overall organizational strategy. This isn’t about being ‘pessimistic’ or ‘optimistic’ or being a contrarian for the sake of it. This is me not really understanding some fundamental principles that are clearly pretty important to Jerry Dipoto and company.
It’s with that background that I have to report I’m again pretty flummoxed by Dipoto’s latest trade, sending out two pitching prospects for Tampa reliever Alex Colome and CF Denard Span.
There’s no doubt that Robinson Cano’s suspension left the team in a bind. Having decided to move Dee Gordon back to 2B, the team is going to have to figure out what to do once the suspension’s over. Acquiring Span makes it clear that Gordon can stay at 2B, but it also freezes out Guillermo Heredia, who’s been one of the M’s best hitters and the surprise of 2018 to date.
Colome, who throws a four-seamer at 96, but uses his 90 MPH cutter over 60% of the time, can probably help get the M’s to Edwin Diaz, but he’s not a lights out reliever. Juan Nicasio *should* be better, and Dan Altavilla should be similar.
In this trade, the M’s are giving up a close to the majors starter in Andrew Moore and promising lower level starter Tommy Romero, who’s probably been the biggest breakout of 2018 in the M’s minors; he’s slmost certainly the biggest breakout *starter*. This has been Dipoto’s preference ever since he arrived, trading SP depth for set-up relievers. It’s just that the M’s track record in such deals is really, really bad. As I’ve written, the low-level depth the M’s have moved fairly quickly turned into interesting prospects while the set-up guys – with the possible exception of James Pazos – have crashed and burned.
But again, my issue with this isn’t the track record; Joaquin Benoit won’t make Alex Colome pitch worse. Instead, it’s the constant churn in organizational depth in order to make fairly minor improvements. Denard Span’s having a good year, and if his patience stays this good, he’ll help a line-up that could stand to walk more often. But he’s 34 and not cheap for someone who may be a platoon OF. Colome is fine, but as an arb-eligible bet having trouble with walks AND who now has the closer label, this seems like poor value for Moore/Romero (not that those two are household names).
I know the M’s had money to spend and I get wanting to push your chips in after this great start, but I’m just kind of stunned that *this* is what the M’s thought they needed. I don’t want to always pick at Dipoto’s trades. I don’t want to rehash the history. I just think there are a couple of things that would make this trade make sense, but neither of them are all that pleasant:
1: The M’s don’t believe in Guillermo Heredia at all or
2: The M’s recognize that they simply can’t develop starting pitchers and have essentially stopped trying, instead flipping them whenever they draw interest.
Game 50, Twins at Mariners
James Paxton vs. Fernando Romero, 7:10pm
The M’s play host to Minnesota as the M’s continue to play the AL Central pretty often in the early season. James Paxton takes the mound and looks to keep his hot streak going. Opposite him is Fernando Romero, a Twins signing out of the DR in 2011. He attracted some attention, but then lost the best part of two seasons to Tommy John surgery, which may be why he doesn’t have a big national profile. He’s been intriguing in a few starts for Minnesota, mixing a high-velo sinker with a sharp slider.
In a way, Romero reminds me a bit of Edwin Diaz back in 2015. Back then, Sugar was a live-armed starter with a great sinking fastball. In the futures game that year, his fastball was notably sinker-ish, and distinct from the four-seamer he’s used in the big leagues. Moving to the pen clearly worked for him, but Romero is something of a window into what Diaz could have been. It’s not a perfect comp, as those don’t exist, but just from a movement/arsenal/velo point of view, it kind of works.
1: Segura, SS
2: Heredia, CF
3: Haniger, RF
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Healy, 1B
7: Gamel, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Beckham, 2B
SP: Paxton
Game 49, Mariners at Athletics
King Felix vs. Josh Lucas, 12:35pm
Happy Felix Day.
The M’s go for a sweep in Oakland behind Felix and a bullpen that has to be feeling a bit better about itself than it did a week or two ago. After writing about how the A’s can really hit but can’t pitch, the A’s have pitched brilliantly, but lost two straight low-scoring games as the M’s simply pitched a bit better. Mike Leake and Marco Gonzales have shown flashes of effectiveness, but their overall season lines weren’t all that encouraging. But two straight throttlings of a very good line up bodes well for the M’s, even if their offense has been mostly silent.
Injuries have had a lot to do with that, of course. Mitch Haniger told reporters yesterday that he’d be fine, and ready to play today, and indeed he is. Nelson Cruz is in there as well, so the M’s are at about as close to full strength as they can legally be right now. Cruz seems to have shown the aftereffects of the various knocks he’s taken, so it’ll be interesting to see if Haniger goes through the same process. The M’s are going to need someone other than Guillermo Heredia to step up, though again, as long as the M’s rotation stays hot, they don’t need MUCH more than Guillermo and even modest contributions from Haniger and Healy.
The A’s start sinker/slider guy Josh Lucas, who came up in the Cardinals system and was traded to the A’s just after opening day this year. Lucas throws a sinker at 92 from a lowish arm slot that’s pushed out towards 3B, and which features a ton of armside run. In his first game for Oakland, though, his primary pitch was actually his slider, which he’s thrown 55% of the time. The pitch moves mostly horizontally vis a vis the sinker, and both induce plenty of ground balls. With his approach and 91-92 MPH velocity, I suppose it’s not a shock that he was seen as a potential ROOGY/bullpen arm, but he misses a few bats, and he’s shown just enough deception to be decent against lefties. It’s that deception that may allow him to start longer term, and it’s a good example of the A’s picking up on a player who may have been unfairly pigeonholed as a non-elite reliever.
Pitches like sinkers and sliders really DO have platoon split issues, and a guy with a low arm slot, in general, should have more platoon issues than an over-the-top hurler. But the A’s have been stockpiling these guys – think Andrew Triggs, Sean Manaea, etc. – and seeing if they work in the rotation. The success that guys like Chris Sale have had certainly helps embolden a team to try this, even if Triggs/Manaea/Lucas have a fraction of Sale’s stuff/velo. But I think the success of some bullpen arms has opened the door a bit, too: Darren O’Day wouldn’t seem like someone who’d be really tough on opposite-handed batters, but he is. There are ways to overcome the inherent weaknesses of certain pitch types and angles. So, like, maybe focus on those things rather than targeting pitchers who are more traditional/”projectable” and throw from a high 3/4 slot and have a really good 4 pitch mix.
It’s a different strategy than the Rays’ starting Sergio Romo/Andrew Kittredge, with very different impacts on player compensation. I’d say it’s “better” but we all know if Lucas (or whoever) works out, they’ll actually get a decent paycheck from whoever the A’s trade them to, not from the A’s organization itself.
1: Segura, SS
2: Heredia, CF
3: Haniger, RF
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Vogelbach, 1B
7: Gamel, LF
8: Romine, 2B
9: Freitas, C
SP: FELIX
Anthony Misiewicz and Arkansas take on A’s affiliate Midland tonight, with A’s prospect Logan Shore starting for the Rockhounds. Red hot Ljay Newsome leads Modesto against San Jose, and Raymond Kerr starts for Clinton as they play host to the Burlington Bees.
Game 47, Mariners at Athletics
Mike Leake vs. Trevor Cahill, 7:05pm
The M’s are riding high after an unlikely series win against the Tigers. The offense wasn’t great in the series, but it had a brilliant sense of timing, and that was enough.
Now, the M’s take on the surging A’s, whose position players rank just ahead of the M’s thanks in part to better defending and a great walk rate. That said, the M’s have the superior batting line as they trade a bunch of walks for singles, and singles are simply better than walks. I think everyone assumed the A’s would have a decent line-up, but even through the struggles of Matt Olson and now Dustin Fowler, the fact that they’re able to crack the top 10 in baseball bodes well for them.
Still, the reason they’re now a couple of games over .500 is that they’ve figured out a way to pitch a little bit. Sean Manaea’s emergence has been big, but as the M’s know well, you can’t rely on a single pitcher and run away with the division/wild card. It certainly isn’t the result of steps forward from Kendall Graveman, who was demoted to AAA. Their oft-injured starters Brett Anderson and Andrew Triggs are, uh, injured as well. Instead, the rotation’s received big contributions from Daniel Mengden, who’s turning the clock back to the early 90s with his low-K, vanishingly-low-BB approach, and today’s starter, Trevor Cahill.
Cahill came up with the A’s as a cerebral, pitchability righty who overcame not-so-great strikeout and walk numbers by inducing ground balls and using his spacious park (and the old baseball) to avoid HRs. After moving to Arizona, he had a couple of solid years, but a couple of awful BABIP years combined with a stubbornly high walk rate forced him to bounce between teams as a frustratingly ineffective journeyman. By 2015, he’d lost his starting gig. That turned out to be a blessing, as he reinvented himself as a reliever with the Cubs. Though his walk rate was still high, his revamped change-up and curveball proved difficult to square up, and his K rate soared. He moved back to the rotation last year with San Diego, and his new higher velocity mostly stuck around – he’s now throwing harder than he did when he came up with Oakland years ago.
His change has been a revelation, and it’s helped him overcome his natural platoon splits. He was solid against lefties early on, though as a sinker/cutter guy, it wasn’t a shock when lefties started to torch him in 2014-15. His change has been effective in part due to its drop – it functions a lot like a splitter, in that it breaks armside but has sharp downward movement compared to his fastballs. His results with it weren’t great last year, but this year, it looks like he’s refined it: he’s throwing it harder, but it’s actually got more downward movement than in 2016 or 2017. The fact that it’s got more drop AND more velo suggests this is break and not just gravity acting on the thing. It’s been his best pitch by far this year, and it’s a big reason his GB% is above 60% while his K rate is over 28% – a level even Cahill probably never could imagine in his first go-round with Oakland.
All told, Oakland still scares me. Sure, the M’s figure to have a bit better pitching overall, but the emergence of Blake Treinen and an A’s development system that is cranking out complementary pieces means they’ll probably stick around on the fringes of the wild card hunt. Sure, a better A’s club can help out by beating the Angels every now and again, but the M’s need to rack up wins against the teams they *should* beat. The A’s were in that bucket before the year started, and to be fair, the M’s have fared pretty well against them. But the A’s aren’t an easy source of victories this year, and that may prove problematic as the M’s schedule gets harder and harder after a comparatively easy May. You can flip this around, too, if you want to be optimistic – and that’s a common feeling in M’s fandom right now. Beating the A’s is good practice for the M’s staff. Not every team out there is as toothless as the Cabrera-less Tigers, but then, the M’s pitchers have some room for error as the A’s starters aren’t world beaters. Wins are wins, and I’m perfectly happy if the M’s victories over the A’s are more indicative of a new, effective approach and not merely the result of beating up on inferior competition. The A’s scare me, and scare me going forward (until they tear it down in a few years), but at this stage, you’ve still got to give the slight advantage to Seattle.
1: Segura, SS
2: Heredia, CF
3: Haniger, RF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Healy, 1B
6: Vogelbach, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: Gamel, LF
9: Beckham, 2B
SP: Leake
Soooo, the latest starter to hit the DL for the M’s is 2B Dee Gordon, who fractured his toe on Sunday – or perhaps aggravated an issue that first appeared after fouling a pitch off his foot back in Toronto. Dan Vogelbach has been recalled; he’s been great in AAA, hitting a HR on Sunday and slugging .711 over 83 ABs for Tacoma.
M’s affiliate starters include Chase De Jong, Darren McCaughan, and undrafted free agent Clay Chandler, who’s been pretty effective. Andrew Moore gave up 2 dingers last night, but got the win in Arkansas’ win over Tulsa. Christian Bergman was sharp against El Paso, but the R’s lost 4-2 when Luis Urias hit a 2R HR against Tacoma reliever Tucker Healy who I keep forgetting plays in the M’s org now. Clinton got an extra-inning, walk-off win against Burlington; closer Sam Delaplane got the win going 2 IP with 5 Ks, giving him 30 strikeouts in 18 IP on the year.
Game 46, Tigers at Mariners – Platoon Split Battle
Wade LeBlanc vs. Francisco Liriano, 1:10pm
The M’s close out this series against Detroit with a game against inconsistent-yet-tough lefty Francisco Liriano. Over the course of his long career, Liriano has been pretty consistently brutal on his fellow southpaws, with lefties posting a sub-.600 OPS over 1,500+ plate appearances, while righties are hitting a comparatively robust .728. On the wOBA scale, that’s .270 vs. lefties and .322 against righties.
Nelson Cruz is getting an off day after getting plunked yet again last night. In the past, that might be a concern, as the righty Cruz was key to making left-handed opponents work/suffer/struggle. Now, though, it’s a team effort. The M’s are one of the best teams in baseball against lefties, with guys like Mitch Haniger leading the way, but he’s got help from 1B Ryon Healy, who’ll take Nellie’s cleanup spot today. Healy’s still something of a limited hitter if you ask me, but he’s displayed a very consistent ability to hit lefties. He is, in a sense, the inverse of Liriano. Streaky, platoon splitted all to hell, but sometimes that’s what you need.
Liriano came up as an extremely hard thrower, but well over a decade later, his fastball velocity’s more average at about 92. He was always known for his hard, sinking slider, and that’s still his outpitch. Lower velo has changed its shape a bit, but he still throws it to lefties and righties alike, and it’s still hard to square up. Not impossible, though – from time to time, it’s a real HR pitch – he’s given up 46 HRs on it in the pitch fx era. He also throws a changeup, though the so-so development of the pitch and his overall consistency issues make it a third-or-fourth pitch.
He came up with a four-seam fastball and a sinker, both of which had tons of horizontal movement thanks to his lowish arm slot and tons of spin, but he’s transitioned to being more of a pure sinker/slider pitcher these days. That combined with a few years under Ray Searage’s tutelage in Pittsburgh means that he’s a ground ball pitcher, though less so than he was 3-4 years ago. The way he spots his fastballs hasn’t changed over that time. His slider usage is pretty standard, too, with the pitch breaking down and in to righties, and low and away from lefties.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Segura, SS
3: Haniger, RF
4: Healy, 1B
5: Seager, DH
6: Heredia, CF
7: Beckham, 3B
8: Freitas, C
9: Romine, 2B
SP: LeBlanc
Understand the limitations and why, say, Healy’s at 4th, but man that line-up kind of peters out. Ah well, go M’s.
I’m going to be up at the Rainiers game today, where Casey Lawrence leads the R’s against Las Vegas. Rob Whalen got the win last night in Tacoma’s 10-6 win. A 5 run inning game Las Vegas a 6-4 lead, but Tacoma pulled away late. Danny Muno and Chris Herrman homered for Tacoma.
Tulsa beat up on Arkansas 8-2, as the Drillers got a HR from former D-Backs prospect Peter O’Brien. The Travs’ Joe DeCarlo hit a 2-run shot in the 9th to escape the shutout.
Visalia beat Modesto 5-3, but Evan White hit his 2nd home run for the Nuts. Kyle Lewis singled and Seth Elledge pitched a scoreless inning in relief.
Clinton lost to Cedar Rapids 6-4, spoiling a good start from Raymond Kerr; Adonis De la Cruz had a bad time in the 7th/8th. The Rapids are a Twins farm team, so their catcher is David Banuelos, the former M’s top-10 prospect who went to the Twins org for bonus pool space. He’s been awful at the plate this year, though he was always known most for defense/leading the pitching staff.
Max Povse’s been demoted back to AA, and he gets the start today for the Travelers as they take on Tulsa. Danny Garcia and Modesto take on Visalia tonight, while Clinton’s TBD takes on Cedar Rapids.
Game 45, Tigers at Mariners
James Paxton vs. Mike Fiers, 6:10pm
James Paxton makes his first home start since his no-hitter back in Toronto, and the M’s hope to get another series win against the Tigers. To do that, it might be nice if the offense started hitting again. Last night’s big rally was incredible, and it saved what looked like a sure loss, but despite Robinson Cano’s suspension, the team needs to rack up runs against a poor pitching club like Detroit.
Fangraphs’ playoff odds give the M’s a 16.6% chance at winning a wildcard, the same exact percentage as the surprising A’s, who just swept the Jays in Toronto. BaseballProspectus has been a bit more bullish on the M’s this year, and thus the M’s have a 27% shot at either the WC or the division (uhhhh, I’m gonna take the under on 3%). The Angels are good, no one can hit Astros pitching, the M’s rotation has been poor, and their bullpen unreliable…and they’re still, somehow, in this thing. The odds are obviously not great, and they’ll have another stretch of poor play at some point, but the team’s remarkably…decent.
James Paxton’s a big part of that, as is Mitch Haniger. They got an insane couple of weeks from Ryon Healy, and will get another big Kyle Seager surge at some point. While they’ve had some good fortune, it’s worth remembering that they’ve done this despite Nelson Cruz being injured and mediocre and with Juan Nicasio being one of the league’s least effective relievers (despite a stellar K:BB ratio). They’ve had tons of bad luck, as well.
If they’re going to make another big 8-of-10 or better run, the guy who needs to get a bit more consistent is Mike Zunino. The club’s catchers haven’t been great, and Zunino’s collapsed plate discipline has been a big part of that. We all understand by this point that Zunino’s one of the game’s streakiest hitters, alternating months of slugging tons of HRs and hits, and months where it seems like he only leaves the batters box to walk back to the dugout.
Zunino seems like the kind of hitter who’d be susceptible to off-speed and breaking pitches, but that’s not exactly the case. Mike’s hit sliders and cutters pretty well last year, and he did even better on curveballs. That’s been a big driver of his improvement – he’s learned to recognize breaking pitches a bit better, and his natural uppercut does really well against any kind of pitch that sinks: he’s always feasted on sinkers. He’s starting to see a few more four-seamers, a pitch that – perhaps because of its trajectory – he’s struggled with.
The Tigers’ Mike Fiers’ bread and butter is a rising four-seam fastball, thrown up in the zone, but at a surprisingly gentle velocity. This isn’t a perfect match-up for Zunino, but I’m hoping he’s been working with Edgar on recognizing and driving these pitches. The league’s shift towards breaking balls may be really tough for, say, Ben Gamel, but it shouldn’t be as big of an issue for Zunino. Tracking four-seamers with good spin should be a part of the M’s training (I have no idea if it is), and if so, it’d really help in a game like tonight’s.
The M’s don’t *need* Zunino to carry the offense, and he doesn’t need to hit for average. But as we saw when Healy went off, having a bottom-of-the-order hitter who can punish mistakes makes the entire line-up much more dangerous. Rallies don’t need to fizzle out in a volley of strikeouts.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Segura, SS
3: Haniger, RF
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Healy, 1B
7: Gamel, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Heredia, CF
SP: PAXTON wooooo
Rob Whalen, Anthony Misiewicz, Reggie McClain and Raymond Kerr start in the minors today.
Kyle Lewis is off to a bit of a slow start, but it’s great to see him playing every day in Modesto. He’s 4 for 20 in the early going, with 10 Ks and a walk.
Evan White’s hitting .267/.347/.349 in 146 ABs.
Game 44, Tigers at Mariners
King Felix vs. Michael Fulmer, 7:10pm
Happy Felix Day. It’s…you don’t look happy. I know, I know, there are few things less conducive to optimism and a sunny disposition than an unreliable bullpen, and that’s the primary problem we’re facing right now. The M’s bullpen isn’t out and out *bad*” – they have the second-highest K rate in baseball. They’ve given up comparatively few hits given the innings they’ve logged. It’s just that they give up hits and walks in bunches, and when their offense isn’t running at peak efficiency, they can’t afford that.
The bullpen’s changed a bit this week. As I wrote about yesterday, they brought in Ryan Cook, who was fantastic in last night’s appearance. The other move – DFA’ing Erik Goeddel – is a bit harder to understand. Goeddel’s walked a few too many, but he had a K% over 30% in limited duty, and had been lights out in Tacoma before that. He was picked up by the bullpen-starved Dodgers, so you hada cool, under-the-radar signing that went about as well as it could’ve gone for the M’s…and now it’s meaningless. Again, the M’s have really bet on their ability to develop talent and to get more out of pitchers than their projections might assume. Whether it’s a mechanical tweak or repertoire change, the idea is that the M’s want to get the very most out of every member of the 40-man roster. James Paxton turned from frustrating enigma to the staff ace in part because of just this kind of instruction, so it’s not like this idea is bonkers; it can work, and HAS worked wonderfully for the Astros.
But the Goeddel DFA shows that they’re having serious problems connecting that development work with longer-term impact to the team. I’m not saying the M’s *wanted* to just kick Goeddel to the curb after a handful of pretty good appearances. I’m saying they didn’t do a whole lot to prevent this from happening. In order to develop pitchers like Goeddel, they’ve got to stay in the system. Bringing up an out-of-options player for a few games in May is nice, but it’d be nicer if they had a plan to help Goeddel get even better. This can’t happen if he was DFA’d just because they needed a fresher arm or because they didn’t have 25-man space. At some point, the M’s will need another fresh arm, and may turn to Shawn Armstrong, whom they got from Cleveland in the off-season. He too is out of options, and so we could see this same pattern repeat itself, which has ramifications down the affiliates. Goeddel was the R’s closer in April; they promoted Cook to that role when Goeddel went north. With Cook in Seattle, Armstrong could take the role (he’s got a save already). But if he’s ever called up, the odds are decent that the M’s *and Rainiers* will lose him if they ever need to swap out arms.
The M’s do not have the talent that Houston has, and probably don’t have the overall talent the Angels have. To compete, they really DO need to get more out of each player than their rivals. This strategy (or lack thereof) makes that impossible. Erik Goeddel – or Ryan Cook or Dan Altavilla or Casey Lawrence or whoever – will not make or break this team. Still, this wastefulness can’t coexist with a development-based strategy, not when so much of their pitching depth was moved for other things.
Felix is having his worst season by far, and it’s getting a bit concerning. His change gives him an option against lefties, but platoon splits aren’t really the problem – everyone’s just hitting him really hard. If those hits find gloves, he can get through, and it’s nice to see his K rate rebound a bit. But…man, we’re not really seeing a Verlander-style career bounce, are we? Still love you, King Felix.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Segura, SS
3: Haniger, RF
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Healy, 1B
7: Gamel, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Heredia, CF
SP: FELIX
Welcome back, Nellie. It is really, really good to see him back in the clean-up spot. The Tigers get a player back from injury today too: former M’s CF Leonys Martin, who’d been on the 10-day DL.
Pete Kozma is batting *2nd* for the Tigers. How the hell are the M’s 1-3 against these guys?
Game 43, Tigers at Mariners – Welcome Back, Ryan Cook
Marco Gonzales vs. Matt Boyd, 7:10pm
Tonight’s game is a repeat of the matchup 5 days ago, the one in which Gonzales pitched quite well before tiring and giving up the lead in his 6th inning of work. That’s two straight games that’ve followed that pattern for him – solid work through 5, and then a little slip up in the 6th tarnishing both his ERA and the M’s chances of winning. Of course, it only hurt the M’s chances of winning because they couldn’t quite figure out Matt Boyd. If you want to read up on Boyd, his evolution as a starter, and his repertoire, check the game preview from last Saturday here.
The M’s made a roster move today, optioning Christian Bergman back to Tacoma, and purchasing the contract of reliever Ryan Cook. I know some will grumble, but there’s not currently space in the M’s rotation for Bergman, but he’s presumably first in line when someone goes down. I think sending him back was always the plan, regardless of how well he did against Texas. I don’t think anyone expected 7 shutout innings, but still – can you bump Wade LeBlanc, who is ALSO coming off a scoreless start? Marco Gonzales, the guy the FO expects so much out of? Felix? C’mon. Mike Leake? Not likely. I think Bergman’s excellent work keeps him ahead of Rob Whalen and Andrew Moore,* and his position on the 40-man means he may get recalled at some point to help the bullpen as well.
The corresponding move is more interesting. Ryan Cook came up with the Diamondbacks, but was traded to the A’s in the big Jarrod Parker/Trevor Cahill trade. Almost instantly, he became one of the surprising A’s best relievers, racking up 3 fWAR between 2012-2013. He pitched a bit less and wasn’t quite as effective in 2014, and then was completely awful in 2015, which led the A’s to essentially sell him to Boston where he was every bit as bad. His velocity was down only 1 MPH, from 96 to 95, but his command had left him. The M’s signed him in January of 2016, as Jerry Dipoto tried to remake the bullpen he’d upended with his trade of Carson Smith.
As Ryan Divish captured in this story from March, Cook tore his latissimus dorsi (back muscle) in spring training that year as he faced his first batter. While rehabbing that, he tore his hamstring. He eventually progressed well enough to go on a rehab assignment to the M’s Arizona League team, where, again facing his first batter, he tore his UCL, requiring Tommy John surgery. He’d faced two batters, and would now be out for not only all of 2016, but 2017 as well. The M’s had signed him to a one year deal, but he re-signed with the club again, and kept working.
He was healthy enough to appear in the Cactus League this spring, which was encouraging, but as amazing as this tale of perseverance is, there are comeback stories throughout the minors. Hell, Jayson Werth is in Tacoma right now, and ex-M’s hurler Anthony Vasquez, who came back from a nearly fatal brain lesion *and* shoulder problems 6 years ago, is pitching in AAA this year. No, what makes Cook’s call-up impressive is that it’s not just a goodwill gesture to someone who worked incredibly hard. Cook’s suddenly good again:
Ryan Cook has been reaching 98 mph as the Rainiers closer. Could make an instant impact in Mariners bullpen, but needs to be handled carefully due to injury history. https://t.co/Tc7HW4ySa6
— Mike Curto (@CurtoWorld) May 17, 2018
Cook’s thrown 13 1/3 IP with 17 Ks and 3 walks. If anything, he’s getting better, as he’s yielded 3 hits, no walks and no runs in his last 6 IP (with 6 Ks). Cook always had a good sinker (that he’d mix with a four-seamer and a sweeping slider), and he’s getting tons of ground balls again. As that Mike Curto tweet notes, he can’t be a workhorse in the bullpen, but a guy touching 98 with sink sounds pretty good to me.
1: Gordon, DH
2: Segura, SS
3: Haniger, RF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Healy, 1B
6: Zunino, C
7: Heredia, CF
8: Gamel, LF
9: Beckham, 2B
SP: Gonzales
Tacoma’s finally back at home tonight, hosting Las Vegas. Johendi Jiminian takes the mound for Arkansas against breakaway province Northwest Arkansas. Nick Wells of Clinton takes on Peoria’s UDFA control artist Zach Prendergast. Modesto and SP Randy Bell have already dispatched San Jose 6-3.
* I thought Max Povse would be challenging for that spot, but it has been a rough, rough year for him; Povse’s given up 37 runs in 36 2/3 IP.