Steve Kelley, Awful Sportswriter
Against my better judgment, I’m going to link to a Steve Kelley article. He’s been so bad at his job for so long that I barely even knew he was still employed by the Times. While they’ve had Larry Stone doing yeoman’s work and covering the game in amazing detail, they’ve allowed this guy to continue butchering columns for no apparent reason.
Today, he tackles the Mariners. Sort of. We’ll do a Pocket-Lint style breakdown, since this column is worthy of that special kind of scorn.
Soon the propaganda will begin to flow from the Mariners’ clubhouse and front office as relentless as political ads.
The season will be spun as if the good ship Mariner is back on course. As if serious holes have been filled. As if significant progress has been made. As if the future is as bright as the center-field glare on a sunny Sunday at Safeco.
The M’s will be spinning like those contestants in the bat races at minor-league ballparks.
Classic Kelley writing, right here. One sentence paragraphs, no value added.
We’ll hear about all of the improvements they have made. The double-play combination of Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez is set for the rest of the decade. J.J. Putz accepted the challenge and has become the undisputed closer for 2007.
You’ll hear about improvements like — yippee — the fact they didn’t lose 90 games this season. That they have made progress the past three seasons, from 63 wins two seasons ago, to 69 last year, to — hold on to your M’s cap — more than 70 this season.
The front office will tell you the bullpen is one of the deepest in baseball. It will mention that Ichiro had another 200-plus-hit season. And Richie Sexson had another 100-plus-RBI year. And Raul Ibanez was as steady as a sextant.
Of course, all those things are true. The M’s have answered many of the questions they had last year. 12 months ago, we didn’t have a guy we could count on in any of the up-the-middle positions and the team lacked a dominant relief ace. This year, we’ve found out that we have many of the players a championship club needs. We don’t have enough, but we have more than we had a year ago.
The Mariners only are better in comparison to their recent past. They aren’t better in the standings, familiarly lodged in last place in the American League West, 4 ½ games behind third-place Texas.
So what if last year they finished 26 games behind the first-place Los Angeles Angels and are only 15games behind first-place Oakland this season.
That shouldn’t be anybody’s definition of true improvement.
Praising that as a positive step is like a golfer bragging about lowering his handicap by six strokes, then admitting it’s still 35.
Welcome to the world of Steve Kelly, where going from awful to average is not improvement. Apparently, you can’t improve until you reach “good” status, and anything short of good is all the same.
Their offense has scored the second-fewest runs in the American League. They spent the whole season without finding a No. 2 hitter behind Ichiro, who despite all of his hits, is not a good leadoff hitter. How could someone with his speed have only 33 extra-base hits in 648 at-bats?
I’d say Chris Snelling and his .286/.385/.506 line have made a solid case as a #2 hitter, wouldn’t you? Or do you not like 24-year-olds who have Edgar Martinez’s skillset? And then he evaluates Ichiro as “not a good leadoff hitter” by disparaging his lack of extra base hits? Really, that’s our criteria for a good leadoff hitter now? Who, exactly, would he consider a good leadoff hitter, Ryan Howard?
What front-office guy is listening to the fans?
Bill Bavasi, for one.
In 2001 and 2002 the Mariners drew more than 3.5 million fans. This year, they will draw about 2.3 million, some 400,000 fewer than last season. Shouldn’t that be a sign the fans are angry?
Who speaks for them?
We speak for ourselves, Steve. And one of the nifty things about this whole interweb thingy that all the kids are playing with now is that the fans actually have some legitimate avenues of communicating with the team. And if you don’t think the Mariners read this blog, you’re kidding yourselves. We don’t need anyone in the front office to speak for us. We’re speaking for us.
Who will ask, “Exactly what has general manager Bill Bavasi done to make the franchise better?”
He’s taken the burning ashes of an old, washed-up team that Pat Gillick left him and turned it into one of the most loaded organizations in baseball in under-25 talent.
The Mariners need to be bold this off-season. They need to sign two top-of-the-rotation starters, preferably Japan’s Daisuke Matsuzaka, the MVP of the World Baseball Classic, and San Francisco’s Jason Schmidt.
Everyone wants Matsuzaka. But here’s a cautionary tale for all those Jason Schmidt fans – you now have Steve Kelly on your side, and that’s never a winning proposition.
They need to find another power hitter like Carlos Lee, so that, once again, the Mariners’ offense isn’t at the bottom of the American League.
Carlos Lee: .300/.358/.535 as a bad defensive corner outfielder.
Raul Ibanez: .280/.347/.493 as a bad defensive corner outfielder.
Seriously, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a worse hitter get as much love heading into his free agent season. Carlos Lee isn’t the answer to any question the Mariners need to be asking.
Imagine a news conference next month announcing the return of Lou Piniella to manage the club. Or think how excited Seattle might get if a favorite son like Joey Cora were brought back to manage.
Right, because Lou Piniella did a great job winning in Tampa Bay. And Joey Cora now gets to manage the Mariners because, what, he cried in 1995? Really, that’s our criteria for choosing a guy to run the club?
As recently as 2002, the Mariners owned this town. The sound of Dave Niehaus’ voice wafted through open doors and screen windows every warm summer night. The M’s held this city in their webbing.
Where has that feeling gone? And, more important, where will this ownership group go to get that feeling back?
The team wins, that elusive feeling comes back. And if you can’t tell that the Mariners are in a better position to win now than they were a year ago, Steve, than there’s no reason why we should care about one more word you write.
Game 151, Mariners at Rangers
Washburn vs Volquez, 5:05 pm.
Edinson Volquez has made six major league starts. See if you can spot which one is not like the others:
5 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
3 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 0 HR, 3 BB, 1 K
4 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 0 HR, 3 BB, 2 K
1 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 2 HR, 3 BB, 1 K
5 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
The American League has lit Edinson Volquez up like a Christmas tree. He’s a good prospect who isn’t major league ready, and major league hitters have been punishing him for his lack of command.
Except the Mariners. They faced him a month ago and he shut them out.
The M’s offensive approach sucks. Let’s see if they’ve learned anything.
Review: 2005 Offseason Plan
Every year, I annoint myself ruler of the Mariner Kingdom and start wildly spending money in my imaginary universe, rebuilding the M’s with my kind of players to build a roster that would hopefully not suck. The results have been a mixed bag, from the good suggestions (Vladimir Guerrero!) to the not so hot (Matt Clement!), but it’s always entertaining for me, at least. So, we’ll do a 2006 Offseason Plan after the season ends, but for now, let’s take a look back at my suggestions for last year and see how they look a year later.
Dave’s A Genius!
Kenji Johjima
I suggested signing him a 2 year, $7 million deal, which is just a bit less than he actually got, but the idea was basically the same. We were pretty sure Johjima was going to be a significant upgrade offensively, and he certainly has been. No question, he was one of the best free agent signings of the offseason.
Jamie Moyer
He continued to defy age and gave the Mariners 150 decent innings, then waived his no-trade clause and brought us a couple of pitching prospects with a pulse. For the cost, this was clearly a win for the M’s.
Jacque Jones
He got one more year than I expected, but the $5 million average salary was right on target, and he’s been as good as advertised. He’s hitting .285/.330/.501 while playing a quality outfield. Since the plan called for Jones to start in left field, with Ibanez shifting to DH, he would have been something like a 30-40 run upgrade over Carl Everett. Additionally, he would have given us another CF option when Reed sucked and got hurt, allowing us to skip the whole Bloomquist/Choo/Jones center field debacles. He also would have made Ben Broussard unnecessary. Clearly, the M’s would have been significantly better off had they signed Jacque Jones, and he was a very good fit for the needs of the organization. Unfortunately, we got C-Rex instead.
Wes Helms
I argued that the M’s needed a RH bat who could spell the corner infielders and hit lefties, as well as be a top pinch hitter off the bench, and that Helms would be perfect for that role. Indeed, he has been, but for the surprising Marlins instead of the Mariners. His .306/.364/.520 line has made him one of the best reserves in baseball. His presence would have allowed us to skip the regrettable Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez trade as well. Helms, like Jones, would have been a fantastic low-cost role player, but the M’s eventually had to go out of the organization to acquire a player to fill this role during the season, at the cost of one of their better prospects. Ouch.
Dave’s An Idiot!
A. J. Burnett
We all knew he was a health risk, but I supported throwing significant money (4/46 was my suggested offer, not that far from the 5/55 he signed for) at the best pitcher on the market. He’s pitched well when he’s been healthy, but he hasn’t been healthy enough to justify the contract. He may yet be worth the money, but after one year, this is a thumbs down.
Esteban Loaiza
Loaiza tried to pitch through an injury early in the season and was one of the worst pitchers in baseball in the first half. After shutting it down and getting his velocity back, he’s been terrific, and he was named AL pitcher of the month in August. That said, the total package hasn’t been worth the contract, and the A’s would probably go another direction if they had it to do over again. It’s certainly a better deal than what they gave to Washburn, but signing Loaiza wouldn’t have made the M’s any better than they have been.
Kevin Brown
He retired, so, who knows. I still think the idea was sound, if not the player who became the role model for the idea.
Overall
If you look at my suggested roster, you certainly don’t see a playoff team. Jones and Helms would have helped the offense significantly more than Carl Everett, for sure, but not enough to compensate for the sucking wound that was Jeremy Reed and the decline of Richie Sexson and Ichiro. The team’s offense would likely have been average at best.
The pitching might have actually been worse, believe it or not. Between the DL stints of Burnett and Loaiza, we’d have ended up giving 150 innings to random Triple-A starters, and Burnett/Loaiza haven’t been any better than Washburn/Meche. Instead of having a long term commitment to a mediocre pitcher, we’d have a long term commitment to a seldom-healthy pitcher.
The organization would probably be in better shape going forward, as they’d have valuable assets like Jones, Choo, and Cabrera instead of Perez and Broussard, but the overall change in performance and cost wouldn’t have been significant.
All this to say, essentially, that while Bill Bavasi made some very questionable transactions last winter, there probably wasn’t much he could have done to make this team win. The Mariners hopes for contending rested squarely on the shoulders of Felix, Beltre, Sexson, and Ichiro, and those four were underwhelming this year. The supporting cast as a whole actually performed well enough to get this team into the playoffs (especially the bullpen, which was downright awesome), but the franchise players weren’t good enough to win with.
The story for 2007 will probably be similar. The M’s are going to have some chances to improve this ballclub, but in the end, this team probably rises and falls with Felix, Beltre, and Ichiro. If they succeed, the Mariners should have a chance to succeed as well.
Game 150, Mariners at Rangers
Hernandez vs Millwood, 5:10 pm.
Happy second to last Felix Day. A start in Arlington probably isn’t the best way to give him a great ending to the season, but he’s good enough to throw a shutout in any park if he’s got his command. Let’s hope for Good Felix tonight.
Regular recent Grover line-up, with Snelling hitting 8th. So dumb.
Looking Ahead: Francisco Cruceta, sort of
So, last week, I decided to writeup Francisco Cruceta as the next in the Looking Ahead series, but I just hadn’t gotten around to writing it. This morning, when I woke up, I discovered that Jeff Sullivan beat me to it.
Jeff nails Cruceta’s strengths and weaknesses perfectly. Summing up:
Francisco Cruceta is a lesson in why you can’t just automatically apply some general ML translation to minor league statistics and come out with a reliable performance projection. He’s been able to succeed by taking advantage of the one thing minor league batters do significantly worse than their Major League counterparts, and now that he’s in Seattle, he’s having a hell of a time trying to adjust. Obviously he’s not five-runs-in-one-inning bad, but he’s not nine-strikeouts-in-every-game good, either, despite what some people might’ve been hoping for as they tracked his progress in Tacoma this year.
This is the simplest way of putting things: Francisco Cruceta is not a starting pitcher. At least, not a good one, anyway, not in Seattle…
Cruceta is out of options next spring, so he’ll have to stick with the team out of spring training or the M’s will have to attempt to slip him through waivers. So, really, the M’s need to decide pretty soon whether he’s going to get a legitimate chance to make the team next spring, and his best chance to do that is as a reliever. The team is extremely crowded in the bullpen, however, so there’s a decent chance that Cruceta could end up as trade bait.
Anyways, read Jeff’s piece on Cruceta, while I go hunting for someone obscure enough that he can’t steal my thunder. Maybe I’ll do a Looking Ahead: Michael Hrynio. That’ll show him.
Game 149, Mariners at Royals
RHP Gil Meche vs. RHP Runelvys Hernandez, 11:10am.
Today’s my birthday, and I’d like the M’s to win. That’s not too much to ask, right? I wish King Felix was pitching instead, but at least it’s not Pineiro.
I’ve never actually attended an M’s game on my birthday. The closest I ever came was on September 18th, 2001, when the M’s nearly clinched the division with a 4-0 win over Anaheim. They would have clinched that night had Oakland lost to Texas. After the game, they put the A’s-Rangers game on the big screen for all of us to watch. Leading 6-5, Jason Isringhausen retired Mike Lamb, Carlos Pena, and Michael Young in the bottom of the 9th.
I went to the game the next night as well, and the A’s-Rangers game started earlier in the day. When that game had reached the 7th inning with the Rangers leading, they stopped updating the score on the out-of-town scoreboard. Apparently they wanted to choreograph that clinching moment with a video screen announcement rather than letting smart fans figure it out, spontaneously, on their own. Oh well.
Go M’s.
Game 148, Mariners at Royals
Pineiro vs Redman, 4:10 pm.
It’s a Saturday, it’s a terrible pitching matchup, and since Redman’s a lefty, there will be no Doyle today.
Go do something else.
Game 147, Mariners at Royals
RHP Francisco Cruceta vs. RHP Luke Hudson, 5:10pm.
I was all set to say that Cruceta would be making his first major league start, but it turns out he did that way back in September of 2004 with the Indians. In any event, Cruceta comes off a minor league season in which he fanned 185 hitters in 160 innings at Tacoma. He also walked better than four hitters per nine innings, so it’s not as if this is a finished product. Does he wind up in relief? Perhaps. But as Dave has said, why not make sure he can’t start?
The best news of the day is that Betancourt’s out of the #3 slot in the lineup. Any guesses as to who has replaced him? Johjima, certainly not a name I was expecting but a vast improvement over Betancourt.
CF Ichiro!
3B Beltre
C Johjima
LF Ibanez
1B Sexson
DH Broussard
SS Betancourt
RF Doyle
2B Lopez
Of course, Hargrove then goes nuts by hitting Betancourt ahead of both Doyle and Lopez. I was all for moving Lopez down in the order, because ultimately I think his lack of patience makes him a #6 hitter as opposed to a #2 or #3 hitter. But Doyle 8th? That’s crazy talk. I’d personally go Ichiro-Doyle-Beltre at the top, but that’s just me. Of course, it’s pointless to get upset about lineup order for two reasons: it doesn’t matter all that much, and we won’t have to deal with Hargrove next season anyway.
The Royals counter with DeJesus, German, Grudz, Brown, Shealy, Costa, Buck, Gathright, Blanco. This offense was bad even with Mark Teahen’s breakout year — without him, it’s even worse. But hey, at least Buddy Bell has the sense to hit his all-field, no-hit SS 9th.
Undervalued Pitcher #1
A few days ago, I talked about why I don’t like long term contracts for pitchers, and why I expect the big name free agents this winter to get contracts that are not in their signing club’s best interests. There’s no way I’d get involved in the Barry Zito negotiations, and from the sounds of what he’s going to receive, I’d bow out on Jason Schmidt very quickly as well.
Of course, since I’m eliminating all the popular names from the discussion of who to acquire, the natural question that follows is “well then, who do you want?”, since we have to actually field a starting rotation next year. I’m of the opinion that pitchers, due to the significant effects that random variation can have on their performance, can often be valued incorrectly. Since the price of pitching has gotten so out of control on the free market, the best way to build a team is to spend on position players, develop your own elite starters, and find bargains to fill out your rotation.
I’ve identified three pitchers who will almost certainly be made available this winter that will require only a moderate cost in terms of talent to acquire and 2007 salary, and will come with no long term commitment, but could be expected to give the team quality innings at the back of the rotation. All three are undervalued, in my opinion, and would be terrific candidates for the Mariners to acquire, allowing them to spend most of their assets elsewhere.
Undervalued Pitcher #1 is probably going to be non-tendered by his current team this offseason because of his poor season. Among qualified American League starters, only Joel Pineiro and Carlos Silva have posted higher ERAs. His ERA is 25 percent worse than league average this season, and it was 15 percent worse than league average last year. He made $3.75 million this year and is arbitration eligible, and it’s unlikely that any team is going to want to take him to arbitration again after posting a 5.88 ERA.
Ladies and Gentleman, Rodrigo Lopez. You might remember him from the May 25th game, where he shutout the Mariners for 7 1/3 innings, or the August 1st game, where he shutout the Mariners for 7 2/3 innings, by far his two best starts of the year.
So yes, I really am suggesting that the Mariners acquire a pitcher who posted an ERA near 6.00 and who got beat around by everyone in baseball not wearing Seattle on their chest. This isn’t exactly the kind of acquisition that is going to get fans excited about coming back to Safeco Field, but it is the kind of acquisition that good teams make. Rodrigo Lopez is the classic buy-low candidate.
Over the past three years, he’s thrown 171, 209, and 182 innings. He’s 30 years old and has proven to be a durable innings eater who is remarkably consistent. But he’s not just a Ryan Franklin type rubber arm who takes the hill every 5 days and eliminates your chance to win the game. Rodrigo Lopez actually has some ability. Look at this five year history:
Season K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FB% HR/FB BABIP LOB% FIP ERA 2002 6.22 2.84 1.05 38.2% 10.1% 0.263 75.4% 4.36 3.57 2003 6.31 2.63 1.47 35.0% 13.7% 0.345 67.5% 5.00 5.82 2004 6.38 2.85 1.11 36.2% 11.0% 0.284 78.2% 4.37 3.59 2005 5.07 2.71 1.20 35.8% 10.9% 0.302 67.0% 4.81 4.50 2006 6.38 2.82 1.48 35.1% 13.9% 0.339 66.7% 4.93 5.88
That’s a pretty interesting chart. Several of those numbers have been amazingly consistent, while several others have been all over the board. He’s posted remarkably similar walk, strikeout, and flyball rates the past five years, showing almost no year to year variation in those core skills. His HR/FB and LOB% have been less consistent, however, ranging from very good to very poor, which has completely driven the wild swings in his ERA.
If you judge Lopez on run prevention, he was excellent in 2002 and 2004, mediocre in 2005, and terrible in 2003 and 2006.
If you judge Lopez on his skillset, however, he’s been practically the same pitcher every year for the last five years. You know exactly what you’re going to get from Rodrigo Lopez. There’s no chance he’ll be an ace, because his stuff just isn’t good enough, but when he’s stranding runners, he’s a valuable middle of the rotation starter. He hasn’t stranded enough runners in 2006, but if you’ve been reading the blog at all the past year, you know that isn’t predictive in nature.
One more chart, just for fun:
Pitcher K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FB% HR/FB BABIP LOB% FIP ERA J. Verlander 6.07 2.81 0.92 34.5% 9.5% 0.293 78.6% 4.20 3.42 Barry Zito 6.15 3.95 1.12 38.1% 9.2% 0.278 78.1% 4.97 3.86 Jose Contreras 6.16 2.44 0.86 38.9% 7.8% 0.286 69.8% 4.04 3.97 Rodrigo Lopez 6.38 2.82 1.48 35.1% 13.9% 0.339 66.7% 4.93 5.88 Kevin Millwood 6.48 2.10 0.91 33.2% 9.6% 0.315 67.2% 3.82 4.47 Ervin Santana 6.60 3.08 1.03 44.4% 8.5% 0.278 66.3% 4.41 4.50 Josh Beckett 6.90 3.33 1.61 38.8% 15.1% 0.270 68.7% 5.25 5.09 Vicente Padilla 6.96 2.96 0.94 35.7% 9.5% 0.307 69.5% 4.27 4.44
Based on his peripherals, that’s the class of pitcher that Rodrigo Lopez has pitched like. His 5.88 ERA is an extreme outlier based on his actual performance, just like Jarrod Washburn’s 3.20 ERA was an extreme outlier the other way last year. Lopez isn’t as good as all those pitchers, but the difference is far less drastic than you’d imagine. With a likely regression in his BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB rates, combined with his durability and consistency in his core skills, Rodrigo Lopez looks like a prime candidate for a bounce back 2007 season.
Lopez would make a fine #4 starter for the Mariners next year, and he’ll probably cost no more than $2 million for the season, thanks to his atrocious 2006 ERA.
The power of ERA is still strong, and it’s going to cause Rodrigo Lopez to be significantly undervalued this offseason. The Mariners would do well to take advantage of this particular market inefficiency.
Game 146, Mariners at Royals
Washburn vs Perez, 5:10 pm.
Anyone want to try to explain Odalis Perez’s career path? Two years ago, he was a heavy groundballer who could miss bats and he posted a ridiculously high 79% LOB% which gave him an unsustainably low ERA and made it look like a breakout year. Last year, his walk/strikeout/home run rates were pretty much the same, but his LOB% went from one of the best in the league to one of the worst, and his ERA went up a point and a half. He also spent half the season on the DL.
He comes back this year, gets demoted to the bullpen, sees his strikeout rate go through the floor but simultaneously cuts his walk rate, basically becoming a Ryan Franklin type pitcher, but continues to allow almost everyone who reaches base to score. He makes a bunch of stupid comments, and the Dodgers give away a decent prospect to the Royals in turn for taking his salary off their hands. Since coming to Kansas City, his walk and strikeout rates jump back, but now he’s an extreme flyball pitcher, and he STILL can’t strand runners to save his life.
Basic skillsets are generally pretty stable, even if the results aren’t. But Odalis Perez’s skillset is all over the board, and he’s now posted ridiculously low strand rates the past two years, despite being a pretty decent pitcher with the bases empty.
He’s the kind of pitcher who makes you want to throw your hands in the air and say who knows. I wouldn’t be surprised if he threw a perfect game tonight, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t last two innings.
1. Ichiro, CF
2. Beltre, 3B
3. Betancourt, SS
4. Ibanez, LF
5. Sexson, 1B
6. Perez, DH
7. Johjima, C
8. Lopez, 2B
9. WFB, RF