Amateur Draft
The MLB Amateur Draft is next Tuesday and Wednesday. The Mariners have the fifth overall selection in the draft. To this point, we’ve spent very little time covering the draft, with the exception of the Andrew Miller article and discussion I wrote a few months ago.
Part of the reduced draft coverage was because I’ve been extremely busy the last few months, but it’s also due to the fact that absolutely no one knows what’s going to happen on Tuesday. Seriously, nobody has any idea. Everything that has been written the past few months could be, and probably will be, thrown out the window by the time the draft rolls around. Stuff I’m writing now could be invalid by the time you read it. There’s just no certainty in this draft at all, and so I’ve avoided speculating about the different possibilities.
Now that we’re only a few days away, though, here’s a look into what could transpire in the first five picks on Tuesday, and what that might mean for the Mariners.
#1: Kansas City Royals
While some have speculated that Dayton Moore’s hiring as the GM means that they’ll take Andrew Miller #1 overall, that conclusion is based on a flawed premise – Moore will have no say in the Royals draft. He won’t officially become GM until June 8th, and he will remain with the Braves through that day. Muzzy Jackson and Daric Ladnier will run the draft for Kansas City, meaning the uncertainty following that pick remains.
The Royals, like everyone else, believe Andrew Miller is the best player in this draft, but aren’t convinced he’s that much better than the other arms, and they’re trying to work out a predraft deal with someone. It could be Tim Lincecum, though that’s unlikely. Luke Hochevar is another name that has been floated, but if you’re looking for a predraft deal, a Scott Boras client probably isn’t your best bet. At this point, literally no one knows what Kansas City is going to do. My best guess is they cut a pre-draft deal with a safe pick after years of getting burned by high-risk draftees.
Dave’s WAG: Brandon Morrow, RHP, Cal
#2: Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have been linked to two names almost exclusively the past few months; Andrew Miller and third baseman Evan Longoria. While nothing is set in stone, this appears to be the easiest pick to project. Miller would fit in perfectly with what the Rockies are trying to do, and he’s the consensus top talent in the draft. It’s highly unlikely he gets past Colorado if KC passes on him. If the Royals tab Miller, they turn to Longoria with an eye on trying him as a second baseman.
Dave’s WAG: Andrew Miller, LHP, North Carolina
#3: Tampa Bay Devil Rays
While it’s been easy to pick on Tampa Bay, they’ve drafted extremly well the past few years, and are now a very well run club, under the eyes of Andrew Friedman and Gerry Hunsicker. They’re going to make a good pick. They’ve been tied to a whole host of names, but the one that makes the most sense, given the teams needs and their current management team, is RHP Brad Lincoln. He’s polished, he’s effective with good stuff and command, and he needs little projection. He’s a perfect fit for the Rays.
Dave’s WAG: Brad Lincoln, RHP, Houston
#4: Pittsburgh Pirates
Like KC, no one has a good feel for where Pittsburgh wants to go. They’ve been tied to Kyle Drabek, mostly due to his father’s success in that city, but they also have a long history of taking college pitching and passing on high-ceiling talent in favor of minimizing risk. This is the organization that took Bryan Bullington over B.J. Upton, after all. Lincoln would be their dream player, and if he goes, they’re probably not happy. Lincecum, Hochevar, and Scherzer are the top arms remaining if the top three goes as I’m guessing, but all are higher risk prospects than Pittssburgh likes. Greg Reynolds, however, fits the mold of what the Pirates are after, even if he’s a big reach at #4; he throws strikes, went to Stanford, and has projection. If they continue to go for lower risk college arms, I think Reynolds is the guy.
Dave’s WAG: Greg Reynolds, RHP, Stanford
#5: Seattle Mariners
The M’s are going to draft a college arm, there’s no doubt about that. The only question is which one. With Miller and Lincoln unlikely to slide to #5, the M’s will probably be picking from the Lincecum/Hochevar/Scherzer/Morrow group. They’ve been tied to Hochevar quite a bit, but no one knows how much of that is real or just a smokescreen.
While Bavasi has a history of preferring high-reward players, Bob Fontaine is running the draft, and he’s a bit more conservative by nature. Fontaine’s also a big proponant of pitcher’s body types, and Lincecum doesn’t fit the mold of what he generally prefers. I don’t see the M’s going for the UW star, but instead picking between Scherzer or Hochevar, unless Morrow falls.
Dave’s WAG: Max Scherzer, RHP, Missouri
Now, keep in mind, all of this is heavily subject to change. It’s normal for one of the consensus top talents to fall due to late concerns about signability (Mark Teixeira, Stephen Drew, Jered Weaver, Luke Hochevar, etc…). It would be weird if something didn’t happen in the next four days that shook up the top of the draft.
We’ll find out more in the next few days, and we’ll keep you up to date with what we’re hearing. But, the main thing to keep in mind about all the draft rumors floating around right now is that no one has any idea what’s actually going to happen on Tuesday.
USSM on KIRO
I did a random interview with KIRO 710 AM that I understand is airing every other hour this morning. I have no idea how it sounds – I was up late last night doing my tunnel rat impression looking for a roof leak (found) and then trying to contain that, so I’ve sleeping and not listening to the show. Anyway, it’s ranting you’ve heard in one or more forms here. Oh man, am I tired. And it’s going to rain this weekend! #@$@%%!!!
Hibernate Me Later
A ground squirrel can hibernate for up to six months, dull to the world around it, dreaming presumably of assorted nuts. Scientists are studying the rotund rodent in the hopes that its sleep habits may help us develop sci-fi-style techniques to render astronauts’ bodies dormant on long trips into deep space.
I’m neither ground squirrel nor astronaut, but boy, have I been hibernating.
Seems like the hometown nine has been, too. The lack of energy has extended to attendance, as we’ve been documenting (well, those of that have actually been posting).
As I attempt to graduate from Rip Van Winkle’s 12 Step Narcolepsy Seminar, let me break down my impressions of the last eight weeks. The benefit of a lean posting schedule is that I come at this with fresh eyes, and can personally guarantee I’m not repeating myself.
With gloom painted all over the horizon, let’s start there, moving on to the sunshine.
Pessimism
* Last week, I wasn’t able to watch a game against the Twins, so I followed along on my phone. When I saw the wlak-off home run hit the box score, I knew instantly what had happened.
With that, Eddie Guardado has now given up more game-ending home runs than any active pitcher.
Lew Ford’s 10th-inning home run Sunday was the 11th game-ending home run that Eddie Guardado has allowed in his career. That’s the most among active players (one more then Troy Pervical [sic] has allowed) and it’s the most against any pitcher since Randy Myers retired having allowed 12 game-ending home runs.
* Willie Bloomquist has been better than Adrian Beltre this year. This, combined with all those 6/6/06 movie commercials have me wondering about the apocalypse.
* On the topic of dismal visions, there’s always the Baseball Prospectus’ postseason odds report (PECOTA-adjusted, too), which paints a grim landscape of future failure. Sure, no one’s running away with the division, but Oakland tends to peak late, and these days the Mariners might have a hard time beating Danny Almonte, his wife, Olga Petagine and six friends.
It’s not all bad, though. And when you wake from slumbernation, you tend to feel the sun more intensely.
Optimism
A summery tune that’s been stuck in my head lately is “Lesson One” by a Portland duo called Viva Voce. It’s fun, fuzzy indie pop with handclaps. The hook goes like this:
So keep your head up
Things are all right
Not exactly Judith Butler-level complex, but you get the point. Besides, most any message echoed from Tupac is all right with me.
* Jose Lopez. We’ve long been believers, and seeing him tear the cover off the ball is almost as exciting as Hargrove having him bunt is frustrating. (Oops: this is the positive section.) Remember, he’s just 22, and young, inexpensive power-hitting second basemen are as rare as yuppies in Bellingham.
* Ichiro. After a slow start, he’s reverted to the hit-machine perfectionist form we’ve come to expect. Besides, in a year where entertaining baseball has been hard to come by — unless you enjoy watching Base Path Follies, Volumes 1-100 — it’s nice to have a constant source of grace in right field.
* Underperformance by stars. If healthy, Richie Sexson is not going to slug .350 all year. His on-base percentage is also .70 points off his career averages. Sexson will rebound, and when he does, the offense will benefit.
* They called me mad at the university. The newspapers laughed at me, saying that anyone who drafted Yuniesky Betancourt was as “idiot.” Yet despite (because of?) a draft that included the M’s defensive whiz along with Carl Everett and Willie Bloomquist, my team has been in first place nearly all year. Besides feeling good, it gives a ready rebuttal to the “you guys are too hard on Willie/Carl/whoever” haters.
If this is possible for my humble roto squad, then there’s hope for the M’s to get Out of the Cellar like Stephen Pearcy was on the team.
So keep your head up. And if that doesn’t work for you, keep ya head up. Things are all right.
Stone on sinking Mariner ship
Larry Stone’s latest column is what I’d say if I didn’t rant about this stuff every day. It’s a brutal summary of the state of the team and what it’s like to follow them.
The series against the Twins was about as bad as it gets, an incredible series of gaffes that would have been laughable if the mistakes weren’t so maddening. And I’ve never, in my 10 years here, seen anywhere close to the level of anger that exists now over the Mariners among their fan base.
They have, in fact, reached that dangerous stage where disgust segues into apathy. Just check out all the empty seats Friday when the Mariners open a series against the pathetic Royals — the rare franchise that makes them seem astute and prosperous in comparison.
I could have picked nearly any two paragraphs out of this article and it would have made a nice excerpt.
Also mentions Hargrove’s job woes and Rohn as a likely interim manager.
Game 55, Mariners at Rangers
RHP Felix Hernandez v LHP John Koronka, 11 something.
“When you start thinking, ‘Let’s try something new’  that’s a panic moveâ€Â
— Mike Hargrove
Ichiro! – RF/L
Beltre – 3B/R
Lopez – 2B/R
Ibanez – LF/L
Sexson – DH/R
Johjima – C/R
Bloomquist – CF/R
Morse – 1B/R
Betancourt – SS/R
PANIC!!!
Game 54, Mariners at Rangers
5:05. RHP Gil Meche v Kevin Millwood… and if you were complaining that Hargrove was locked into his lineup, check out this thing:
Ichiro – RF
Beltre – 3B
Lopez – 2B
Ibanez – LF WILLIE BLOOMQUIST steps into the breach!
Everett – DH
PETAGINE (!!) – 1B
Johjima – C
Reed – CF
Betancourt – SS
I have to think this is some kind of prank, and closer to game time they’ll say “kidding!”
Seriously — Beltre at #2? Abandoning L/R/L? Did Hargrove get suspended?
Tacoma haps
I thought I’d write about the guys in Tacoma, as I’ve seen these guys (many of them, in Tacoma and in Everett) and have followed their careers closely. Interesting things are afoot, and I’m sure the next edition of Dave’s Future Forty will be cause for some great discussion.
Michael Garciaparra’s hitting decently after being promoted to the PCL so Ismael Castro could get playing time at AA. Right now he’s hitting .306/.432/.361. The lack of power’s strange, and the plate discipline’s a step up from anything we’ve seen from him before. He’s only been up a while, but I’m watching his starts, because his progression through the system’s been quite interesting. At 23, there’s room for growth yet. I really soured on him over his defense and his erratic lines, but I’d love to see Garciaparra be what the M’s hoped for when they reached to draft him.
Asdrubal Cabrera’s similarly intriguing. He’s hitting .266/.380/.394 and playing good defense at short. Without hitting for a higher average and a little more power, he’s not a good candidate for advancement. But he’s 20! 20! I’m a big fan.
Adam Jones is only a year older, converted to center field this fall, and looks great, if sometimes raw, in the outfield. He’s still putting a charge into the ball, but rarely: a .233 average with excellent power doesn’t make him ready to replace the Reed/Bloomquist platoon. But he’s 21!
Then there’s Doyle. After scorching the ball on his return, he’s cooled dramatically: .244/.392/.293 is a weird line. He’s still got crazy pitch recognition skills, even if he hasn’t hit for power yet or contact lately. He’ll come around. Whether he comes around fast enough to prevent Carl Everett, your 2007 DH, well… cross your fingers.
What else? Choo’s hitting okay, but he’s looking more and more like a tweener – at 24, we haven’t seen enough from the bat to pass him off at a corner spot, and his defense in center’s not good enough to put him out there regularly either. As a 4th OFer with some basestealing ability, he could help the team, and there’s still the chance he’ll make a leap forward.
Hunter Brown, at .267/.338/.458, continues Tacoma’s proud tradition of having their third basemen outproduce Seattle’s (seriously, how much of a difficulty adjustment do you have to apply to get that down to Beltre’s .221/.285/.295?)(also, how sad is that).
The most interesting thing on the pitching side is the ascension of Cruceta. He’s had a couple of stellar starts lately, and his season line now stands at 2-3, 4.22 ERA, 42 2/3 IP, 1 HR (!), 26 BB, 57 K.
As Appier has fallen out of serious consideration for promotion, Cruceta’s stock has risen. If the team looks to revamp Seattle’s pitching soon, he’s the most likely to get the tap.
Game 53, Mariner at Rangers
LHP Jarrod Washburn v LHP John Rheinecker, which means… that’s riiiight….. Bloomquist starts in center! WOO HOOO!!!
5:05.
Only article I read that didn’t depress me by reminding me of these last few games: Larry Stone on the upcoming draft.
Charting Felix article
I’ve got an article up at the Hardball Times summarizing the data from the four games I’ve charted into the Felix Database to date. If you’ve read the other posts, you’ll recognize the conclusions, but there are a few bits of interesting data that are in there that I hadn’t seen before culling all this stuff together.
The thing that jumps out is just how poor the pitch selection has been in the first 15 pitches of each ballgame. Of the 58 pitches I’ve charted to start the game, 48 have been fastballs against just 5 curves and 5 change-ups. 83% of his pitches to start the game are fastballs. Opposing hitters are hitting .542/.633/.708 off Felix on the first 15 pitches of the game this year.
Seriously, the M’s have to realize that the scouting report going around the majors tells hitters to go up looking for nothing but fastballs in the first inning. That’s exactly what they’re doing, and they’re lighting him up. After the first 15 pitches, he actually starts mixing his pitches, and he pitches just fine. It’s those first 15 pitches that are killing him.
Screw establishing the fastball. Establish outs instead.
Week 8 in review
WLWLLLL. Split with Baltimore and then work on putting together a quality losing streak.
I don’t have that much to say. Watching Hargrove manage this team has become ridiculously painful (everyone should read Dave’s post on today’s game). Go look through the game threads if you’re in any doubt. When your hardcore fans are able to cheer for your manager to make the worst move possible in a given situation and the opposing team also anticipates that move and reacts to make it even less productive, isn’t that reason enough for a change?
I know Rohn’s a small-ball guy, a fairly predictable double-stealer, but I can’t imagine he wouldn’t be a huge improvement. How long do we have to wait this out, another two weeks? A week if the team goes 0-7 or is otherwise hugely embarassed? Getting severly beat up by Texas to drop in the AL West chase (it’s a chase, I can’t believe it’s still a chase) would help, but I don’t want the team to lose. I want Hargrove canned *and* a sweep in Texas. Oh well, I can hope.
The good:
Ichiro! is being Ichiro! Over .400 with a double and a triple this week. Woo!
Sexson hit a Sexson-like .269 with 3 doubles and a home run. Stick around, big guy.
Beltre hit a .296/.321/.407. It’s not the Beltre I want but I’ll take any improvement.
Bloomquist hit .313 for a total line of .313/.389/.313. He took a walk! No, really!
Betancourt hit .348.
Good starts from Felix and Meche (!)
Overall, the bullpen had a really good week, when they weren’t blowing games. I know that sounds weird, but if you saw the games, you know what I’m talking about.
The bad:
Really ugly weeks for Everett, Lopez, Johjima, and Ibanez in particular.
The rotation got beat up pretty severely, and Putz, Green, and Woods all took some poundings.
The ugly:
The bunting. The baserunning. The lineups. The management. The feeling of being a fan while watching these games.
How far is Hargrove from getting canned?
Totally uninformed rumor-mongering without any basis in fact or any conversations with anyone in the Mariner front office*
A sweep by Texas, particularly a severe stomping, might do it and get Rohn in ahead of the KC series. A decent showing would bring him back to face KC/Minnesota at home, and an embarassing performance there, in front of ownership and fans, would almost certainly finally get him his well-deserved termination.
So: team goes .500 against the next two weeks, it’s a coin toss
Sweep by Texas: 75% he’s gone.
Escapes Texas but team goes 2-5 in the June 2-8 homestand: gone
Ichiro finally snaps after the team fails to score him from first with no outs in an inning and finally says something clear about Hargrove (which will, I suspect, be exceedingly subtle and delicately worded: “While I am not a manager and have the utmost respect for Hargrove as the head of this club, I wonder if, as I am suited to right field and do my best work as a leadoff hitter, managers also have situations in which they are best at, and situations where they are not the best fit…”): gone
* really