First batch of USSM swag available
Makes a great uh… Valentine’s Day gift! Yeah! That’s it! Anyway, check it out, we’ve got a bunch of versions of the freaking awesome JoelE designs, and a couple of limited-edition shirts — every month, we’re going to try tossing out a couple of random cool shirts, and at the end of the month we pull the plug.
The shop
The February limited-edition shirts
I know we’d intended to try the logos on dark blue, but CafePress doesn’t have navy shirts we can use. Sorry.
We should have the Ambivalent Maybe designs up as soon as I figure out why CafePress refuses to accept the images.
And anyone wishing to take a crack at a better version of the limited edition Felix shirt and are willing to accept our standard pay rate ($0 forever but I do pay your way into a USSM feed), drop us a line.
All proceeds go to support our continuing efforts to censor open discussion and further our plans for world domination.
Super Bowl XL MVP
I don’t watch a ton of football. I have trouble picking a 4-3 defensive alignment out, for instance, though I understand what’s going on. Even I can’t believe that game. The MVP was clearly the officials, who made more game-changing plays than any player on either team, almost all against the Seahawks (“Touchdown? Let’s toss a flag.”). I haven’t seen bad umping like this since the Indy-Pittsburgh game. Maaaaaaaaaaaaan. This sucks.
SI on defensive metrics
Attempts to answer the question “Is Jeter any good defensively?” Includes a really good, long, early quote by this really smart baseball guy I know, “Dave Cameron”.
One thing the article seems to omit, though, is that Jeter’s long-term numbers have been much worse. There’s a lot of speculation that Alex’s presence at third has allowed him to play farther up the middle, which suits Jeter’s skill set much better. But all in all, it’s a nice article about new stat methods and what they offer.
Position Roundtables: Starting First Baseman
Starting First Baseman: Richie Sexson
Dave
Richie Sexson in a nutshell:
He’s tall.
He’s a local boy.
He strikes out a lot.
He’s going to hit .270/.370/.530 unless his shoulder falls apart.
Seriously, there’s almost no variance in his year to year numbers. Even PECOTA picks up on this, basically pegging him for an exact repeat of his 2005 season despite being 31 years old, an age when projection systems start throwing red flags everywhere and forecasting doom and despair. After a full year of taking hacks, we can hope that his shoulder is again at full strength, and barring a relapse, there’s basically no reason to expect Sexson to decline dramatically. When healthy, he’s put up the same line over and over. And, considering that he’s good enough to overcome the Safeco Curse on Righties, that makes him a darn good player.
My concern, though, is that there’s literally no contingency plan. If Sexson gets hurt, the starting first baseman is… Raul Ibanez or Carl Everett, probably. And then you’re shifting things around defensively at two positions while replacing Sexson’s bat in the line-up with Matt Lawton’s. As much as we think Lawton was a nice value pickup, that’s a massive downgrade.
Sexson has to stay healthy and play 150 games. The M’s can’t contend without him. They don’t have any real options if he goes down. His health isn’t an option.
Jeff
The most chilling three-word English phrases, in order:
1. “Let’s be friends.”
2. “That’s not mayonnaise.”
3. “If he’s healthy …”
The battery of tests and blue-ribbon panel of doctors gave Sexson’s shoulder a clean bill of health, and it didn’t fly out of it’s socket at all last year. This is a salve for some of my concerns.
For more salve, here’s a positive thought: Sexson had a fantastic year last year. But here’s a sobering counterpoint: he’s not likely to improve upon it — and if he’s injured or falls off, that’s a significant power gap in the team’s offense. As Dave says, the available alternatives are enough to make a man with mononucleosis go on a Nyquil bender.
Okay, Dave didn’t say that, but still. When the next-best solution is a brutal downgrade both at bat and in the field, signs point to trouble.
For the M’s, the best-case scenario is essentially Sexson repeating last year. For the worst-case scenario, well … let’s just say it ends with a Nyquil bender.
Derek
Sexson to Ibanez: a little more contact, less OBP, a ton less power
Sexson to Everett: even worse
I don’t actually think Lawton in the lineup more often is so bad. Lawton
likely to be just as good as Everett, though with his injury and last
year’s drug saga… but we’ll get to that. It’s Lawton in the lineup and
one of those dudes at first. That’s just ugliness. And both those guys
would be huge defensive downgrades. Sexson is the foundation of this
offense.
There is no other power threat in the lineup. After Sexson, we’re back
to a 2004 singles-only offense.You’re hoping for a rebound from Beltre,
or a development leap from Jose Lopez. Or, if you’ll pardon this plug,
the Return of the Return of Doyle.
This isn’t just about the team being able to score runs. If you’re a fan
of team balance, a team without power should rankle you. If you’re a fan
of exciting baseball, that Sexson is the only power hitter should scare
you. The singles-and-outs offense is amazingly boring. That’s great if
you want to fall asleep at the ballpark or watching the game at home,
but if you want to see this team winning, well… keep Sexson in your
thoughts and prayers.
Dave
I’m not sure I’d say Sexson repeating his ’05 is the best case scenario. His weighted mean PECOTA projection is basically a repeat of last year, so it sees that as a middle ground with potential for a better season. I think its unlikely that Sexson hits .300/.400/.600, but I would have said the same thing about Derrek Lee last year.
Just putting wild guesses into percentages, I’d say that Sexson has about a 50 percent chance to approximate last years performance, a 30 percent chance of declining with injury making up a big chunk of that, and a 20 percent chance of actually having a better year in ’06 than he did last year. The career year is the least likely of the three scenarios, but the possibility isn’t zero, I don’t think.
Derek
PECOTA thinks there’s a 15% chance his performance spikes up, a whopping
43% chance next year’s an improvement on this year. 43%. Wow.
Jason
Last year, in discussing the tallest Mariner, we seemed to focus on two possibilities: Sexson gets hurt early and only plays in a handful of games, or Sexson stays healthy all year. Fotunately for everyone, the latter was reality. Richie Sexson is the only hitter from last year’s team about whom I’d say “He had a good year” — he led the club in OPS by a ridiculous margin, and no, I don’t think Ichiro had a good year given what he’s done in the past.
Looking at his games played over the past six years, 2004’s “23” is clearly the abberation — throw that out, and he’s averaged 156 games played over five seasons. I’m not nearly as worried about his shoulder as I was this time a year ago, and given the power he displayed last season it seems unlikely we’re looking at another Shawn Green situation.
That said, the M’s certainly can’t afford to lose him for any significant stretch of time if they’re going to be respectable next season… unless you think spring training invitee Todd Sears can duplicate in the majors the .321/.394/.499 line he posted in the minors last year.
Mariners hike ticket prices
I just noted that they finally posted single game prices.
With 2005 single-game prices in ()s
Lower box: $55 ($50)
Field: $38 ($35)
Horribly overpriced Terrace Club Infield: $60 ($55)
Horribly overpriced Terrace Club Outfield: $45 ($43)
View Box: $25 ($24)
Lower Outfield Reserved: $25 ($24)
View Reserved: $18 ($17)
Left Field Bleachers: $14 ($13)
Center Field Bleachers: $7 ($7)
Not as bad as it could have been. And yet, still…
Rogers latest to stir Ichiro rumor stew
With the Seattle Mariners in decline, and no real end in sight, the Bud Selig Classic (aka the WBC) is the best shot he’s had in three years to satisfy his competitive juices.
“It’s been a long time since I’ve played in a game which excites me,” Suzuki told the Tokyo Shimbun this offseason. “It is a sad situation that I have had to create my own motivation from inside of myself for such a long time.”
M’s extend agreement with Everett Aquasox through 2008
Not huge news, as the old contract ran through 2006, but still nice. From the Aquasox press release:
“The Mariners are extremely pleased to extend our affiliation in Everett,†said Mariners Vice-President of Player Development and Scouting, Benny Looper. “The AquaSox management and fans make this an easy decision as our players and staff enjoy first class treatment while competing in the Northwest League.â€Â
I love seeing games at Everett, the people are great, almost everyone on staff is kind and friendly, and it’s a nice little stadium, but their clubhouse facilities are pretty bad. I know it’s short-season so it’s not unbearable over 162 games, but it’d really be nice to see them be able to improve those facilities. Especially when Everett’s sometimes used for Mariner rehab assignments, it seems like that’d be worth the modest organizational investment.
Will Clark and the Hall of Fame
I picked at this post for a long time and never really felt like it was done until the vote happened and Clark only got 4.4% of the vote (23 votes out of 520 cast). That means he’s not eligible again until he goes up for Veteran’s Committee consideration, and I don’t see that he’ll get much support there either. Of course, Albert Belle only got 40 votes, and… unless this is a first-ballot punishment thing, I don’t understand that, either. But that’s another post.
This is about me and Will Clark. Read more
King, Felix at Fan Fest
From Kirby Arnold at the Everett Herald:
The Mariners’ 19-year-old right-hander arrived at Safeco Field on Saturday for the first day of the team’s FanFest as the new owner of a frosted-blond hairdo, a couple of diamond earrings, a fancy pickup truck and a Shih tzu puppy named “King.”
King Felix, as Hernandez has been called by those who consider him as baseball’s best young pitching prospect, hopes to match the flash with substance on the mound in 2006.
Not the hair! Noooooooooooooooooooooooo!!
And for all the noise over whether he’d compete in the WBC, he didn’t seem that upset that he’s not going:
The WBC’s technical committee ruled last week that Hernandez won’t play, and he’s not disappointed that he won’t play.
“I’m really not ready physically to compete, so I don’t want to embarrass myself that way,” he said.
2006 Position Roundtables: Starting Catcher
Last year, we did a series of posts leading up to the start of the season where we covered each part of the roster in a string of emails, and then posted them here. Starting today, we’re launching this year’s crop, beginning behind the plate. The goal is to post two per week, likely on Mondays and Thursdays, up through opening day. These will give us a chance to cover each spot in enough detail to hopefully give you guys an idea of what we expect from the 2006 team.
So, without further ado, let’s kick off the roundtables.
Starting Catcher: Kenji Johjima
Dave
In 2005, the Mariners gave seven catchers a total of 563 plate appearances. As a group, they hit .215/.249/.311. In case you want some run context for that line, if the M’s team had matched that number, they’d have scored 2.46 runs per game. No other position in baseball, on any team, yielded the same kind of offensive futility for their organization as did the Mariner catcher. The seven men who wore the tools of ignorance for the M’s last year had all the offensive prowess of a triple-A reserve infielder. They combined to be worth 14.7 runs less than a replacement level major league catcher, which is essentially defined as the expected performance of a minor league veteran that a team could acquire for free. Had the M’s handed all 563 of those plate appearances to, say, Alberto Castillo, they’d have improved by 15 runs.
Needless to say, Kenji Johjima’s not exactly filling big shoes. He could decide to swing with one hand and still be an improvement over the disaster that was the Mariner Wheel-O-Catchers-2005. There’s a 0.0001 percent chance that the M’s don’t see a huge improvement in catcher offense in 2006, and that tiny decimile essentially accounts for the chance that Johjima is kidnipped by an angry Rene Rivera, and the M’s end up signing Derek to fill the gap while the rescue party searches the high seas. Barring that, expect the M’s 2006 catchers to run laps around the 2005 catchers.
So, we know we’ll be better. But how much better? What do we expect from Johjima in his first year in the states? All the translations of his Japanese numbers turn out very well. The different projection systems stick him anywhere from .250/.320/.400 to .270/.340/.480. It’s a pretty big gap of expected performance, and we certainly don’t have anything near the certainty with him that we do with other spots on the roster. While his numbers in Japan were terrific, there are some reasons to expect less in the states.
First off, Johjima will be 30 in June, and catchers don’t age particularly well. It’s not uncommon for backstops who were great in their twenties to fall apart offensively in their early thirties. It’s not the norm, but it happens frequently enough to not be ruled out. When added to the cultural adjustment, the move to Safeco Field as a right-handed batter, and the M’s emphasis on defense as the number one job of a catcher to the point of potentially stunting offensive development, there are legitimate reasons to expect a more significant decline than a straight numerical translation of his Japanese numbers might suggest.
Of course, there’s also a flip side. The scouts love him. His performances have been legitimately tremendous. He’s already in the U.S. working on his game, and he’s skipping the WBC to commit his time in spring trianing to learning the pitching staff and getting acclimated to Major League Baseball. Scouts are convinced he’s going to be a star here, and pretty much every statistical projection system has him hitting at a level that will make him one of the three or four best catchers in baseball in 2006.
When the scouts and the stats agree, there’s no good reason to be pessimistic. Johjima’s probably going to hit, and hit well, from the day he puts on a Mariner uniform. With the rest of the division running Jason Kendall, Jeff Mathis, and Rod Barajas out there as his competition, it will be an upset if the Mariners don’t have the best catcher in the division. If he hits .280/.350/.440, which is about where I have him pegged, he’ll be an easy choice for the all-star team.
And, keep in mind, even if you think he’s going to be a total bust, he’ll still be 15 to 20 runs better than what the M’s had last year.
Derek
I agree.
The concerns about his language and his ability to handle his pitching staff are overblown, the same kind of thing we heard when people were scraping for arguments for why Ichiro wasn’t a valid Rookie of the Year candidate. It’s somehow not a big deal for catchers to speak broken Spanish, or English, depending on their background, but if their first language is Japanese, well, that’s entirely different. I was particularly amused by the various crazy evaluations of his English, which ranged from “speaks none” on up. None? Really? Have you tried to talk to him?
From all accounts, Johjima’s invested much time and effort in improving his English and doing preparation work. And let’s be realistic, how much English does he really need to know?
Moyer: known to call his own pitches, preparation freak
Washburn: “Why do you make more than I do?”
Pineiro: “Be the good Joel, okay?”
Meche: “Man you are hooooooooooorrible tonight.”
Felix: what are you going to tell Felix? “Dial it down” maybe?
Jeff
A friend of mine is the first person ever to play hacky-sack at the South Pole. It’s true.
She traveled via icebreaker down to Antarctica and, once there, discusses with her compatriots whether certain activities had ever been engaged in on the coldest continent. Here’s their chance at history, to be the first person to swing a golf club there, or do the hula hoop, or put an icy boot onto a hippie footbag.
My point is: people are fascinated with firsts. Though position players have come over from Japan with success, the fact that a catcher has never done so is going to cause much more of a kerfluffle than it should.
Is there reasonable justification for this? Kind of. It’s true that catcher is a unique position.
From where I sit, though, the trickiest part about Johjima’s transition to the majors is going to be teaching announcers along the Mariners radio network how to pronounce his name. Up here in Bellingham, I’ve already heard “Yojima,” “Jawjima” and “Hojima” — and it’s not even spring yet.
At least we got the pressing issue of the internal “h” cleared up long ago. Now, all Kenji has to do is treat Major League pitchers the way he did their counterparts in Asia, and we’re in business.
Dave
I agree that the concerns about his language are overblown, but I still think its a legitimate concern on a minor level. It’s not a big deal for a hispanic catcher to speak little english because every baseball team on earth has several other spanish speakers, and pretty much every infield in baseball has a spanish speaker who can come in and translate a mound conversation if need be. If Johjima spoke Spanish instead of Japanese, he could haul Beltre, Betancourt, or Lopez over and everyone would get along just fine. But Ichiro’s not jogging in from right field on trips to the mound, so Johjima has to learn more english than a hispanic catcher would.
In the end, it’s probably not a big deal, but I don’t think the straight comparison to spanish works.
Honestly, the thing that probably worries me most about Johjima is Safeco. It’s eaten some good hitters alive over the past few years. As much as I love Mike Cameron, it was painful watching him try to hit there. If Johjima rocks a few balls that are run down in the LF-CF gap, is he going to be able to overcome that and not let it get in his head?
Jeff
This is a fair and sobering point about Safeco. It’s been a damper on many a right-handed hitter.
One other item on the language point that bears repeating: Johjima worked with English- and Spanish-speaking pitchers in Japan with, by all reports, no problem. I doubt this will be a bigger issue on this side of the Pacific.
Jason
It’s funny; a year ago we were doing these roundtables and Jeff and I in particular were quite upbeat about the M’s starting catcher — Miguel Olivo, a relative unknown. Now here we are, all of us excited at the prospect of Kenji Johjima, yet another unknown.
I’ll echo the comments made so far — there’s no way he doesn’t improve on the abysmal performance the M’s got out of their “catchers” last season. The language issue? Overblown. I won’t go so far as to make a projection, as there are tools for that sort of thing and my knowledge of Japanese baseball is slim-to-none (and getting narrower all the time, a friend of mine used to say).
As a veteran but not-yet-old catcher, Johjima’s the perfect way to bridge the gap until Clement is ready in two years. My one concern is not having JoeJessica around to back him up — there aren’t any good backup options in the system right now, meaning we could be in for 140 games of Johjima along with the classic catcher fade in August.
In any event, that’s a minor concern. Johjima gets my full endorsement as, by miles and miles, the best move the M’s made this winter.