Two pairs of eyes, every guy they draft
From Jonah Keri’s Q&A with the Yankees’ Mark Newman over at Baseball Prospectus
If there are 50 rounds in the draft, you need to focus on a usable number of rounds, since the players in the late rounds are long shots. So you can look at the top three rounds for the cross-checker, since that’s the focus of his job. Then you might look at the top five or six rounds for area scouts, where there’s still a reasonable chance that prospects will emerge.
To quote myself, writing about the massive buildup of the Bavasi-Fontaine group operation:
By putting more people on the ground, investing heavily in area scouts, cross-checkers, and so on, they know more about every person they’re looking at in the draft than their opposition. That’s amazingly valuable information. We can talk a little about the depth/breadth distinction at some point (Rob Neyer wrote a really good column about this I’d like to dig up and revisit). It makes your picks more valuable than another team’s. If you’re drafting a junior college guy in the 10th round that three good eyes have seen, you’re much more likely to turn that into a player than essentially flipping a coin between single-scout reports.
I’ve been way down on the off-season, but it’s worth remembering that there are good reasons to be happy in the long-term. Advantages like this aren’t going to start showing up for another two years, but it should happen, and it should be sweet.
First batch of USSM swag available
Makes a great uh… Valentine’s Day gift! Yeah! That’s it! Anyway, check it out, we’ve got a bunch of versions of the freaking awesome JoelE designs, and a couple of limited-edition shirts — every month, we’re going to try tossing out a couple of random cool shirts, and at the end of the month we pull the plug.
The shop
The February limited-edition shirts
I know we’d intended to try the logos on dark blue, but CafePress doesn’t have navy shirts we can use. Sorry.
We should have the Ambivalent Maybe designs up as soon as I figure out why CafePress refuses to accept the images.
And anyone wishing to take a crack at a better version of the limited edition Felix shirt and are willing to accept our standard pay rate ($0 forever but I do pay your way into a USSM feed), drop us a line.
All proceeds go to support our continuing efforts to censor open discussion and further our plans for world domination.
Super Bowl XL MVP
I don’t watch a ton of football. I have trouble picking a 4-3 defensive alignment out, for instance, though I understand what’s going on. Even I can’t believe that game. The MVP was clearly the officials, who made more game-changing plays than any player on either team, almost all against the Seahawks (“Touchdown? Let’s toss a flag.”). I haven’t seen bad umping like this since the Indy-Pittsburgh game. Maaaaaaaaaaaaan. This sucks.
SI on defensive metrics
Attempts to answer the question “Is Jeter any good defensively?” Includes a really good, long, early quote by this really smart baseball guy I know, “Dave Cameron”.
One thing the article seems to omit, though, is that Jeter’s long-term numbers have been much worse. There’s a lot of speculation that Alex’s presence at third has allowed him to play farther up the middle, which suits Jeter’s skill set much better. But all in all, it’s a nice article about new stat methods and what they offer.
Position Roundtables: Starting First Baseman
Starting First Baseman: Richie Sexson
Dave
Richie Sexson in a nutshell:
He’s tall.
He’s a local boy.
He strikes out a lot.
He’s going to hit .270/.370/.530 unless his shoulder falls apart.
Seriously, there’s almost no variance in his year to year numbers. Even PECOTA picks up on this, basically pegging him for an exact repeat of his 2005 season despite being 31 years old, an age when projection systems start throwing red flags everywhere and forecasting doom and despair. After a full year of taking hacks, we can hope that his shoulder is again at full strength, and barring a relapse, there’s basically no reason to expect Sexson to decline dramatically. When healthy, he’s put up the same line over and over. And, considering that he’s good enough to overcome the Safeco Curse on Righties, that makes him a darn good player.
My concern, though, is that there’s literally no contingency plan. If Sexson gets hurt, the starting first baseman is… Raul Ibanez or Carl Everett, probably. And then you’re shifting things around defensively at two positions while replacing Sexson’s bat in the line-up with Matt Lawton’s. As much as we think Lawton was a nice value pickup, that’s a massive downgrade.
Sexson has to stay healthy and play 150 games. The M’s can’t contend without him. They don’t have any real options if he goes down. His health isn’t an option.
Jeff
The most chilling three-word English phrases, in order:
1. “Let’s be friends.”
2. “That’s not mayonnaise.”
3. “If he’s healthy …”
The battery of tests and blue-ribbon panel of doctors gave Sexson’s shoulder a clean bill of health, and it didn’t fly out of it’s socket at all last year. This is a salve for some of my concerns.
For more salve, here’s a positive thought: Sexson had a fantastic year last year. But here’s a sobering counterpoint: he’s not likely to improve upon it — and if he’s injured or falls off, that’s a significant power gap in the team’s offense. As Dave says, the available alternatives are enough to make a man with mononucleosis go on a Nyquil bender.
Okay, Dave didn’t say that, but still. When the next-best solution is a brutal downgrade both at bat and in the field, signs point to trouble.
For the M’s, the best-case scenario is essentially Sexson repeating last year. For the worst-case scenario, well … let’s just say it ends with a Nyquil bender.
Derek
Sexson to Ibanez: a little more contact, less OBP, a ton less power
Sexson to Everett: even worse
I don’t actually think Lawton in the lineup more often is so bad. Lawton
likely to be just as good as Everett, though with his injury and last
year’s drug saga… but we’ll get to that. It’s Lawton in the lineup and
one of those dudes at first. That’s just ugliness. And both those guys
would be huge defensive downgrades. Sexson is the foundation of this
offense.
There is no other power threat in the lineup. After Sexson, we’re back
to a 2004 singles-only offense.You’re hoping for a rebound from Beltre,
or a development leap from Jose Lopez. Or, if you’ll pardon this plug,
the Return of the Return of Doyle.
This isn’t just about the team being able to score runs. If you’re a fan
of team balance, a team without power should rankle you. If you’re a fan
of exciting baseball, that Sexson is the only power hitter should scare
you. The singles-and-outs offense is amazingly boring. That’s great if
you want to fall asleep at the ballpark or watching the game at home,
but if you want to see this team winning, well… keep Sexson in your
thoughts and prayers.
Dave
I’m not sure I’d say Sexson repeating his ’05 is the best case scenario. His weighted mean PECOTA projection is basically a repeat of last year, so it sees that as a middle ground with potential for a better season. I think its unlikely that Sexson hits .300/.400/.600, but I would have said the same thing about Derrek Lee last year.
Just putting wild guesses into percentages, I’d say that Sexson has about a 50 percent chance to approximate last years performance, a 30 percent chance of declining with injury making up a big chunk of that, and a 20 percent chance of actually having a better year in ’06 than he did last year. The career year is the least likely of the three scenarios, but the possibility isn’t zero, I don’t think.
Derek
PECOTA thinks there’s a 15% chance his performance spikes up, a whopping
43% chance next year’s an improvement on this year. 43%. Wow.
Jason
Last year, in discussing the tallest Mariner, we seemed to focus on two possibilities: Sexson gets hurt early and only plays in a handful of games, or Sexson stays healthy all year. Fotunately for everyone, the latter was reality. Richie Sexson is the only hitter from last year’s team about whom I’d say “He had a good year” — he led the club in OPS by a ridiculous margin, and no, I don’t think Ichiro had a good year given what he’s done in the past.
Looking at his games played over the past six years, 2004’s “23” is clearly the abberation — throw that out, and he’s averaged 156 games played over five seasons. I’m not nearly as worried about his shoulder as I was this time a year ago, and given the power he displayed last season it seems unlikely we’re looking at another Shawn Green situation.
That said, the M’s certainly can’t afford to lose him for any significant stretch of time if they’re going to be respectable next season… unless you think spring training invitee Todd Sears can duplicate in the majors the .321/.394/.499 line he posted in the minors last year.
Mariners hike ticket prices
I just noted that they finally posted single game prices.
With 2005 single-game prices in ()s
Lower box: $55 ($50)
Field: $38 ($35)
Horribly overpriced Terrace Club Infield: $60 ($55)
Horribly overpriced Terrace Club Outfield: $45 ($43)
View Box: $25 ($24)
Lower Outfield Reserved: $25 ($24)
View Reserved: $18 ($17)
Left Field Bleachers: $14 ($13)
Center Field Bleachers: $7 ($7)
Not as bad as it could have been. And yet, still…
Rogers latest to stir Ichiro rumor stew
With the Seattle Mariners in decline, and no real end in sight, the Bud Selig Classic (aka the WBC) is the best shot he’s had in three years to satisfy his competitive juices.
“It’s been a long time since I’ve played in a game which excites me,” Suzuki told the Tokyo Shimbun this offseason. “It is a sad situation that I have had to create my own motivation from inside of myself for such a long time.”
M’s extend agreement with Everett Aquasox through 2008
Not huge news, as the old contract ran through 2006, but still nice. From the Aquasox press release:
“The Mariners are extremely pleased to extend our affiliation in Everett,†said Mariners Vice-President of Player Development and Scouting, Benny Looper. “The AquaSox management and fans make this an easy decision as our players and staff enjoy first class treatment while competing in the Northwest League.â€Â
I love seeing games at Everett, the people are great, almost everyone on staff is kind and friendly, and it’s a nice little stadium, but their clubhouse facilities are pretty bad. I know it’s short-season so it’s not unbearable over 162 games, but it’d really be nice to see them be able to improve those facilities. Especially when Everett’s sometimes used for Mariner rehab assignments, it seems like that’d be worth the modest organizational investment.
Will Clark and the Hall of Fame
I picked at this post for a long time and never really felt like it was done until the vote happened and Clark only got 4.4% of the vote (23 votes out of 520 cast). That means he’s not eligible again until he goes up for Veteran’s Committee consideration, and I don’t see that he’ll get much support there either. Of course, Albert Belle only got 40 votes, and… unless this is a first-ballot punishment thing, I don’t understand that, either. But that’s another post.
This is about me and Will Clark. Read more
King, Felix at Fan Fest
From Kirby Arnold at the Everett Herald:
The Mariners’ 19-year-old right-hander arrived at Safeco Field on Saturday for the first day of the team’s FanFest as the new owner of a frosted-blond hairdo, a couple of diamond earrings, a fancy pickup truck and a Shih tzu puppy named “King.”
King Felix, as Hernandez has been called by those who consider him as baseball’s best young pitching prospect, hopes to match the flash with substance on the mound in 2006.
Not the hair! Noooooooooooooooooooooooo!!
And for all the noise over whether he’d compete in the WBC, he didn’t seem that upset that he’s not going:
The WBC’s technical committee ruled last week that Hernandez won’t play, and he’s not disappointed that he won’t play.
“I’m really not ready physically to compete, so I don’t want to embarrass myself that way,” he said.