Campillo outrighted
Minor, slightly odd move: Campillo, who had elbow surgery in September, was activated from the DL and outrighted to Tacoma today. This clears a spot on the 40-man. MLB.com, elsewhere.
Free Agent Landmines
We’ve done several posts outlining free agent acquisitions that we think would be a great fit for the M’s. Don’t worry, we’re not done. I’ve got a few more individual posts to go before we reveal the giant overall offseason plan. Today, though, let’s talk about the guys to avoid, the albatross contracts just waiting to happen. One of the risks of the free agent market is the significant chance of buying a soon-to-be-sunk-cost. There are potential landmines everywhere in the free agent market. Last year, teams flushed money down the drain on Edgar Renteria ($40 million), Russ Ortiz ($32 million), Eric Milton ($24 million), Jaret Wright ($21 million), Corey Koskie ($18 million), and Cristian Guzman ($16 million). Those guys were basically replacement level players, not significantly better than a run-of-the-mill minimum salary performer. And they’re all signed for several more seasons, dragging their teams payroll down and being a millstone around the franchise’s proverbial neck.
These are the contracts you have to avoid. And there are some glaring landmine potentials in this free agent class.
Jarrod Washburn, LHP, Angels
Washburn had the greatest positive difference of any pitcher in the American League between his actual ERA and his fielding independant ERA. His 3.20 ERA was great. His 4.39 FIP is totally mediocre. His expected FIP, which normalizes his home run rate based on the amount of flyballs he allowed, was 5.01. His strikeout rate stinks, he’s an extreme flyball pitcher, and he’s got middling command. Run away, run away…
Matt Morris, RHP, Cardinals
Since the all-star break, Matt Morris has been, well, awful. His numbers across the board have taken a nosedive. His strikeout rate has fallen and he’s getting lit up like a Christmas tree. He has a history of arm problems, and at this point, wouldn’t be a good bet even on a one year contract. Given his reputation and his overall totals, someone is certainly going to overpay.
Kenny Rogers, LHP, Rangers
There’s no way the M’s pursue him, but Kenny Rogers is in for a massive collapse next year. His peripherals across the board this season were poor with one exception; his home run rate. He allowed just 7 percent of his flyballs to leave the yard. That’s not sustainable. His exepected fielding independant ERA was 4.88. I’d be surprised if Kenny Rogers was still a major league pitcher at this time next year.
Bengie Molina, C, Angels
He’s got the rep as the best free agent catcher on the market. That shows just how bad this free agent catching crop is, I guess. Anyone want to pay for the age 31-33 seasons of an out-of-shape catcher who has a career .272/.308/.395 line? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?
Other potential landmines include Todd Jones, Trevor Hoffman, Mike Piazza, Jason LaRue, and Jason Johnson. Also, Jeff Suppan, if the Cardinals decline his option.
If you see the M’s pursuing any of these players, it’s bad news. These guys are the prime candidates for the bad offseason signings of 2005. Avoid like the plague.
Are you kidding me?
There are two baseball games tonight, Game 1 of the NLCS and Game 2 of the ALCS. They’re both on at the same time, on the same channel. FOX, MLB, you guys are the best. No, really. I’d much rather have you tell me what game to watch than be given the choice. You guys know best, anyway. Thanks!
Meet Kenji Jojima
Word around the campfire heralds that the Mariners are pursuing Kenji Jojima, a standout Japanese catcher.
For those of you unfamiliar with the player nicknamed “Joe,” here’s a quick introduction. (And yes, that means the Mariners might well end up with a tandem of JoeJessica and JoeJima.)
For the past three years, Jojima’s offensive numbers have been excellent. In 2005, he cracked the Pacific League’s top ten in just about every important category, including on-base percentage, slugging, total bases, batting average and even triples. His rate statistics are impressive, especially 2004, which may have been his career year:
YEAR AVG OBP SLG 2003 .330 .399 .593 2004 .338 .432 .655 2005 .309 .381 .557
Behind the plate, he has a solid defensive reputation, a good arm and has stayed relatively injury-free (though he did suffer a broken shinbone this year). Jojima speaks very little English, but has worked with American pitchers in Japan without any particular problems. He turns 30 in June.
For background, here’s a Japan Times profile on Jojima from a few years ago, and a more recent story that focuses on his defense.
Other teams have scouted Jojima as well, but — spooked by the Kaz Matsui signing — the Mets have said they are not interested.
There are two or three things that would concern me about him for the Mariners. You could say pretty safely that plate discipline played a key role in his productive 2003-2005 seasons (.399, .432 and .381 OBP respectively). But his strike zone judgment has been very spotty before that — his career high in OBP before 2003 was .377, and in 1998 and 2002 he put up out-machine type on-base numbers (.309 and .305, ouch!).
It seems like he’s learned to control the strike zone as his career has progressed. At least, one hopes so.
I also worry about how his power numbers are going to translate. Hideki Matsui is the success story here, but Jojima’s lifetime numbers (while good) are not Hideki-like, and there are enough instances of players leaving their slugging percentage at customs that I’d be concerned. He’s a righthanded hitter, too, and coming to a large park life Safeco might hurt him.
Want a scary comparison? Compare Jojima’s career to Norihiro Nakamura’s. These are their lifetime numbers:
AVG OBP SLG .267 .366 .506 .298 .358 .513
Pretty close, though Jojima hits for more average. He’s also three years younger, so he has that going for him, but they’re both players that hit for power and had up-and-down plate discipline in Japan. Nakamura took his righthanded bat to a big American ballyard, and, well, you know what happened. There is also the curse that the Mariners appear to have on the catching position to consider.
On the other hand, his numbers also compare (favorably) to Tadahito Iguchi‘s. Iguchi had several mediocre years before two superb ones, and Iguchi has produced in the states.
Given that Nakamura got a minor league contract, I can’t imagine Jojima will cost the M’s a lot of money, which makes it a low-risk, moderate-to-high reward move in my eyes if that’s the case. Even the $2.3 million base salary the White Sox paid for Iguchi doesn’t seem out of bounds. The potential payoff will likely justify taking a chance.
Just from the numbers, I’d say his upside is probably a player like Ben Molina has been for the past few years (though Jojima can run a little bit), with his downside being a Nakamura-style disaster. Yes, that’s a wide variance of expected performance. But considering the feast-or-famine nature of Japanese stars coming to the states, it’s best to temper expectations.
That way, you’ll be pleasantly surprised.
Minor transactions: Ojeda gone
From MLB.com: “Outrighted INF Justin Leone to Triple-A Tacoma and announced C Miguel Ojeda was claimed on waivers by the Colorado Rockies.”
Not that Ojeda’s any great shakes, but… they gave him up for the trivial payment of a waiver claim? I’m a little surprised.
Null phrases used to pad a broadcast
Collected through the 2005 season:
As far as [x] is concerned
As we said
At this moment
Game [x] of a [y] game series
[I/we/you] can’t stress enough that
[I’m going to/I’ll] tell you what
It’s one of those things
Let me tell you something
No question about it
No doubt about it
One of the things you’ll [see/notice]
One thing I’ll tell you
Right now
That’s a case where
The thing about that is
They always say
Think about that
You could say [this/that]
You talk about
We always talk about
Fun fact of the day
Reader Evan Rodwell submitted this cool bit:
—
B-R lists 28 offensive stats for each team, and shows the team leader in those stats.
Of Seattle’s 28, 26 are lead by Ichiro or Sexson (13 each).
Ichiro’s categories:
Batting Average
Games
At Bats
Runs
Hits
Triples
Stolen Bases
Singles
Times on Base
Sac Flies
IBB
Power/Speed Number
AB/K
Richie’s categories:
OBP
SLG
OPS
Total Bases
Doubles
Home Runs
RBI
Walks
Strikeouts
OPS+
Runs Created
XBH
GIDP
The only other two categories? HBP (Morse) and Sacrifice Hits (Winn).
Hargrove denies Stottlemyre rumors
Make of this what you will.
Seattle manager Mike Hargrove said Tuesday the Mariners are not currently considering the resident of suburban Issaquah for their vacant pitching coach job.
“We haven’t talked to Mel and we haven’t talked about Mel. He’s still under contract with the Yankees,” Hargrove said via telephone from his offseason home in the Cleveland area.
Matsuzaka to be posted?
We with our ears to the ground at USS Mariner Labs have been hearing rumors for a few days that Daisuke Matsuzaka would be posted, allowing him to come to the United States. Given that there is a lot of ground between here and Japan, it’s tough to know how reliable our ears have been in gauging things.
Now, Dayn Perry says that he’s available — albeit with no substantiation or specifics.
Also on the market is Daisuke Matsuzaka of Japan. He’s a gyroball specialist whose stuff Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus likens to that of John Smoltz  hard and heavy. He’s certain to be hotly sought by high-revenue teams like the Red Sox and Yankees.
Take this detail-light report with a grain of salt, or perhaps a portion of soy sauce. But combine this with what we’ve been hearing and the fact that the timing is right — Bobby Valentine’s Chiba Lotte Marines just knocked Matsuzaka’s Seibu Lions out of the playoffs — and I’d say that the rumor stands a good chance of proving true.
Why post on this topic so much right now, while we’re still speculating? If the report is correct, teams could start the action quickly.
Under the posting system, after the player’s name and status is officially declared to American teams through the commissioner’s office, teams have four days to post their bids for the rights to negotiate with the player. The winning bidder then gets 30 days to negotiate a contract.
A news report doesn’t consitute an official announcement. But if there’s something to this, we could have a lot more to talk about soon.
Mr. Schaden, meet Mr. Freude
Fun exercise: find a Yankee fan, give them your best innocent smile, and ask sweetly “Hey, I missed the game last night: what happened?”
In the remnants of the Bronx Bombers’ season we find two nuggets of interest to Mariner fans. First, Derek notes that the Yanks may be interested in Daisuke Matsuzaka. (My most recent take on Daisuke and the free agent starter market is here).
Second, Mel Stottlemyre is on his way out as New York’s pitching coach, and the Issaquah resident is a possibility to fill the vacancy left by Bryan Price.
Update: from msb in the comments, Corey Brock talks about pitching coach candidates in the TNT without mentioning Stottlemyre. Also, here’s Larry Stone’s take in the Times.