Mind Game, woot

DMZ · July 11, 2005 · Filed Under General baseball

Mind Game, the Baseball Prospectus book on the Red Sox is available for ordering (yes, I know, how timely). I’ve got a couple chapters in there (though credited as “Baseball Prospectus Team of Experts” and, annoyingly, not listed at all in the “About the Author” text even though I wrote the bulk of the chapters mentioned in the description… sigh) that I thought turned out well.

Steve Goldman (author of the fine (though Yankee-oriented) Pinstriped Bible and Pinstriped Blog as well as Forging Genius, the fine book on Casey Stengel) helmed the project, and I think it’s good stuff. Check it out. It’s also likely the last BP-related book you’ll see my writing in, so… I don’t know what that means. It’s not like that’ll make it a collector’s item or anything. Moving on!

I got a flat rate for the chapters, so it’s not like I make anything if it sells really well. I just think it’s good, I liked the roster of authors who were enlisted, and I trust Steve put together a good book. So I recommend checking it out if you’re interested at all. No pressure. Now when my book comes out… well, you’ll know book pimping when you see it.

Boone’s a Twin

DMZ · July 11, 2005 · Filed Under Mariners

Traded to Minnesota for a PTBNL. Financial details scarce, but the M’s are likely picking up almost all of his salary for this year.

Seattle Times:

“I’m pretty happy,” Boone said this morning. “This is where I wanted to go all along.”

“If it goes through it would be a good fit,” an American League scout said this morning. “The Twins are a team that focuses on strong defense, which Boone can still play, but in need of a pick-me-up, especially at second base.

I never understand why all scouts are quoted anonymously all the time, especially on something this innocous. Also: sure, he can play strong defense. The problem is that he doesn’t do it all the time any more. You get the stellar, impressive Boone along with a new, weaker-fielding version that gets the bulk of the playing time.

The Seattle Mariners Official Site has it now. I hate, hate, hate the auto-playing video clips.

Twins @ Mariners August 8-10th.
Mariners @ Twins August 18-21st.

I wonder what the reunion’s going to be like.

Crowd: Boo! Boo!
Boone: Ron…are they booing me?
Gardenhire: Uh, no, they’re saying “Boo-ne! Boo-ne!”
Boone: Are you saying “boo” or “Boo-ne”?
Crowd: Boo! Boo!
Hans: I was saying “Boo-ne”…

(adapted from The Simpsons)

Yet Another Feed Update

Dave · July 11, 2005 · Filed Under Mariners

After previously announcing the Feed as being full, we’ve had a rash of cancellations this morning. So, for those interested in attending, we have eight remaining spots for Saturday’s game.

The event includes a two hour pregame meeting in the Ellis Pavillion at Safeco Field, hosted by BP author Jonah Keri, Derek, Jeff, and myself. We’ve got a couple of guest speakers who will be attending as well, and, let me just say, you don’t want to miss it. You’ll find out why on Saturday. After the meeting, where we’ll be providing light refreshments, we all march up to section 326 and watch the game together. And, it looks like there’s a pretty good shot we’ll be applauding Rafael Palmeiro’s 3,000th career hit, 2,184 of which came against the Mariners. Also, as a bonus, all attendees get a complimentary one month subscription to baseballprospectus.com (if you’re already subscriber, it gets extended by a month).

So, for $35, you get one of the most unique baseball experiences you can find. You really don’t want to miss out. We’d like to get these last few spots filled sooner rather than later, so email us to RSVP for the outing. Make sure to include your name, as well as the name of anyone you are bringing with you, and we’ll send you payment information and further details.

First Half Numbers

Dave · July 11, 2005 · Filed Under Mariners

Just a few random numbers from the first half that you may find of interest.

  • Ichiro, who had a “disappointing” first half by most peoples standards, is 6th in the American League among outfielders in VORP. The five ahead of him are Hideki Matsui, Vladimir Guerrero, Gary Sheffield, Johnny Damon, and Manny Ramirez. Remember, VORP does not include defense. Even while slumping, Ichiro’s an elite player and a legitimate all-star.
  • The Mariners, White Sox, and A’s are essentially tied for the major league lead in defensive efficiency, turning 71.6 percent of all balls in play into outs. The M’s ranked 6th (70.1 %) last year, 1st (72 %) in 2003, 9th (70.5 %) in 2002, 1st (72.7 %) in 2001, and 3rd (69.9 %) in 2000. Since moving into Safeco Field, the M’s have never ranked out of the top ten in turning balls in play into outs. That’s not a coincidence.
  • According to BP’s playoff odds report, after sweeping the Angels this weekend, the M’s now have a 0.26 percent chance of winning the division and a 0.06 percent chance of winning the wild card. In other words, if we played the second half of the season 1,000 times, the Mariners would make the playoffs in about three of those.
  • The Mariners rotation of Pineiro, Moyer, Meche, Sele, and Franklin has been worth about 9 wins over a replacement level pitching staff and about 1 win less than an average pitching staff. Franklin has been the team’s top starter, being worth 2.3 wins over a replacement level starting pitcher. That ranks him 55th in major league baseball and 26th in the American League.
  • Speaking of Franklin, there’s good reason to expect him to perform significantly worse as the season goes on. His Fielding Independant ERA of 5.21 is a run higher than his actual 4.35 ERA, and his Expected Fielding Independant ERA, based on his component numbers, is 5.72. Both his FIP and his xFIP are worst on the staff. However, because the gloves have been turning 75 percent of his balls in play into outs, his ERA sparkles at 4.35. The next time someone tells you how “unlucky” Ryan Franklin is, remind them that his BABIP is 9th in the majors among starting pitchers. His teammates might not score him any runs, but they save him a buttload with their defense.
  • More pitching fun. There are 56 pitchers in the American League who qualify for the ERA title. Of those 56, the Mariners starting pitchers rank 32nd (Meche), 40th (Pineiro), 42nd (Moyer), 51st (Franklin), and 52nd (Sele) in K/9. The starters have struck out 255 hitters in 514 innings pitched for a 4.46 K/9 as a pitching rotation. If the M’s staff was one American League pitcher, it would rank 45th out of 56 in strikeout rate. Talk about pitching to contact.
  • Adrian Beltre is 5th among Mariners hitters in VORP. Seriously. Only Ibanez, Sexson, Ichiro, and Morse have provided more offensive contribution to the team than the M’s third baseman. He’s still 25th among major league 3rd baseman, however. Among those major league third baseman with a higher VORP than Beltre: Jeff Cirillo. Ouch.
  • Eddie Guardado has been about 2 wins better than a replacement level reliever, ranking him 4th best in the American League. Considering he’s doing it with a torn rotator cuff, he’s having one of the most remarkable seasons of any player in baseball this year. He’s basically dominating with nothing but chutzpah.
  • Felix the Reliever

    Dave · July 10, 2005 · Filed Under Mariners

    By the way, Felix Hernandez is making his return to the mound tonight. As a reliever. To help limit his workload, he’s going to continue to work out of the bullpen while in Triple-A.

    Feed Full

    Dave · July 10, 2005 · Filed Under Mariners

    Just wanted to let you all know that we are officially out of room for the U.S.S. Mariner trip to the park for next Saturday. If any spots open up this week, we’ll let you know. If you are certain you will be available and would like to be on a 5 man “reserve” list, send us an email (put “reserve” in the subject line) with a phone number you can be reached at Saturday, and we will call you if there are any last minute cancellations.

    We’ll see everyone who signed up there. And I’m fairly certain you won’t be disappointed.

    Comments Off on Feed Full 

    Game 87, Mariners at Angels

    Jeff · July 10, 2005 · Filed Under Mariners

    Sorry this is late, but like Diamond Dave once said, I don’t feel tardy.

    Game 86, Mariners at Angels

    Jeff · July 9, 2005 · Filed Under Mariners

    Pre-game quotes about the potential for trading Eddie Guardado:

    “I’m not sure we would want to (trade him),” Seattle general manager Bill Bavasi said. “We certainly would not take a cavalier approach to moving him. This guy’s really important. I know important guys have been traded from clubs, but he’s very important to us.

    “This team right now is lacking success, it’s lacking character – it’s lacking a lot of things that Eddie Guardado’s got.”

    Eddie’s got success? He’s been holding out on us! I’ll hold him, you search his locker. He can keep the character.

    Let’s see if Ryan Franklin’s character involves keeping the ball down, getting ahead in the count and scoring runs early. John Lackey goes for the Angels.

    Willie and Washburn

    JMB · July 9, 2005 · Filed Under Mariners

    As maddening as it may have been to see Bloomquist in the lineup again last night, you pretty much have to start him any time the team faces Jarrod Washburn. I used to write about this when I did his profile for the Grand Salami, but however you slice it, Bloomquist owns Washburn — he’s 10-for-20 against him in his career with a .545 OBP and one of his two career triples.

    Sample size, schmample size. Every hitter has one pitcher — his bizzaro-world match — he simply destroys. Whether or not the two ever actually face each other is a different story, however, and I hear Charles Gipson is still looking for his.

    Game 85, Mariners at Angels

    DMZ · July 8, 2005 · Filed Under Mariners

    Crafty left-hander Jamie Moyer versus sneering left hander Jarrod Washburn.

    “I backed into your Prius? Heh.”

    7:05 our time, FSN and KOMO.

    This game GUARANTEED to feature RED HOT Willie Bloomquist. You can’t keep this guy out of the lineup!

    I also want to say that I don’t hate Bloomquist. I really don’t. Back when he was hanging around Tacoma, he came off badly, as a talentless coach’s pet and a preening lady-killer, but who cares — at that age, a minor league baseball player, there are far worse things.

    And since then, I haven’t read an unkind word about him personally. While I don’t know him, by all accounts he’s matured into a pretty good guy I probably wouldn’t mind having a beer with (um, as long as he didn’t punch me out).

    So there are conflicting feelings at work:
    – He’s demonstrated in his major and minor league careers that he’s not a good player, and justifies a roster space for versatility, pinch-running, and whatever else, but not as a project or a future anything
    – I hate that the Mariners have loved him so much for so long, as a symptom of their organizational blind spot for scrappy athletes (like Dobbs) who can’t hit but look like players
    – I’m tired of the amazing near-worship I see from some fans who like to dog on useful, contributing players like Randy Winn, and I’m tired of being subjected to constant supplication to Bloomquist by the broadcast crew (“Bloomquist is the best centerfielder on the Mariners… — Dave Niehaus”)
    – I’m so happy he’s been smoking the ball while I’m watching the game, because this team needs hiiiiits like mad, and yet…
    – I worry this is going to be like the original September call-up, where a short super-hot streak justifies retaining him and fawning over him for the next five years.

    Anyway, with a lefty on the mound, it’s almost certain he’ll start again. Good luck.

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