Kevin Calabro called up
Sigh. He’ll be joining the team’s broadcast crew while Niehaus takes his mid-year vacation. The Sonics’ site on NBA.com has four dates (July 14,15,16,17) but no details about when or where.
Calabro’s a good basketball announcer (though I admit I don’t know the different crews as well as I do baseball), but this is still disappointing. He’s a locally-known name, without deep baseball broadcast experience. Why not find someone who can do play-by-play, especially someone local who knows the players and the organization like Mike Curto?
It strikes me as part of the long-standing (and possibly slowly changing) organizational philosophy to favor the familiar and the safe over the interesting and risky.
One More Feed Post
We have spots still remaining for the Baseball Prospectus/U.S.S. Mariner Ballpark Feed at Safeco Field next Saturday, July 16th. Derek, Jeff, and I will be there, along with BP’s Jonah Keri, and some unannounced special guests.
We’ve got a great event lined up as is, and we’re working on a few things in the background that would make this one of the most unique experiences a Mariner fan could have. You’re going to have a great time. The responses from those that have attended our two previous feeds have been tremendous, and this one includes a ballgame. It will be the best $35 you spend all summer.
You can signup by emailing the feed mailing list and letting us know the names of each person you are RSVP’ing for.
Come. Bring friends. Have a blast.
Week #15 in Review
Boone DFA’ed! Doyle recalled! Mariners score double-digits, not just for the week, but in a single game! Bloomquist hits like it’s September 2002!
Wow, what a week.
Vital Signs
Wins: 36. Losses: 48. Games out of first place: 15.5.
The Mariners drop another two games in the standings this week. And now a 5-game chasm separates the M’s from the third-place Athletics. Last place rarely seemed so lonely. According to third-order wins, the Mariners are unlucky by more than 3 games, but that still doesn’t mean that their last-place position is undeserved. Only Tampa Bay and Kansas City have fewer 3rd order wins. And of course, those two teams’ payrolls together don’t match the Mariners.
Runs Scored: 354 (last in the American League). Batting average: .257 (last). On-base percentage: .316 (last). Slugging percentage: .388 (last). Home runs: 62 (last). Bases on balls: 235 (8th!). EqA: .261 (18th in baseball).
The Mariners get away with an offense last in every significant batting category in the league without being last in EqA on a couple of counts. First of all, they play in Safeco Field and EqA is weighted accordingly. Secondly, their most potent offensive weapon right now is their designated hitter, and 10 of the 12 teams behind them have no such luxury.
Runs allowed: 377 (8th). Staff ERA: 4.29 (8th). DIPS ERA: 4.82 (13th). Strikeouts: 427 (last). Bases on balls: (12th). Home runs allowed: 90 (11th). Starters ERA: 4.89 (12th). Relievers ERA: 3.03 (3rd). Defensive efficiency: 71.6% (3rd).
The M’s quietly have one of the best relief corps in the game right now. At least they have some marketable commodity for the coming trade frenzy.
Make it 5 straight losing series for the Mariners now. They went 3-4 on the week dropping 2 out of 3 to both Texas and Kansas City (shame on them) before taking Game #1 in the LA Angels series. Thanks to a couple of blow-out wins and close losses, they outscored their opponents 32-28. They were out-homered 8-5 (which happens to every team playing Texas), but drew more walks 24-19 (thank you, Bartolo Colon). The M’s lineup was feast or famine, where 3 starters logged an OPS over 1.000, and 4 starters below .700.
Heroes
Feast: Adrian Beltre (10-for-29, .345/.367/.759, a double, a triple and 3 home runs), Ichiro! (12-for-26, .462/.531/.577, 5 walks), and Willie Bloomquist (9-for-21, .429/.455/.667, 5 doubles, 2 stolen bases and so much hustle broadcaster Dave Valle is rumored to have spontaneously combusted like a Spinal Tap drummer). At least someone got the memo that Kansas City’s pitching isn’t very good.
To celebrate Independence Day, Ryan Franklin threw a complete game shutout. He held the Royals to 6 hits and a walk while striking out 4. And he did it on only 103 pitches. Hey, if you got a defense that can catch the ball, you might as well use it. At 13.9, Franklin now has the highest VORP on the pitching staff. Give the boy a cookie.
Not-so-much Heroes
Famine: Raul Ibanez (6-for-26, .231/.333/.346), Jeremy Reed (4-for-19, .211/.286/.316), Jose Lopez (3-for-18, .167/.167/.278) and Pat Borders (2-for-15, .133/.133/.133). Dincha get the memo?
Reed is now hitting .259/.329/.357. His 5.2 VORP is 12th among AL centerfielders with at least 100 at bats. On the bright side, he is the 2nd best centerfielder in the AL West according to VORP.
The shutout by Franklin must have really pissed off the Royals. The very next day, the team that makes an out in 68% of their plate appearance, shellacked Gil Meche for 5 runs on 7 hits and a pair of walks. Meche allowed more runners on base than he recorded outs, as he failed to sit a Royal down in the fourth inning. It was his worst start of the season, and against one of worst offenses to boot.
Coming to a stadium near you
Over the weekend the Mariners will play 3 more in Angel Stadium. Few teams are hot like the Angels are right now. Prior to last night’s bizarre turn of events, the Angels had gone 15-4 dating back to June 17. They’re cruising in first place of the AL West. Their offense has scored 409 runs, 5th in the league, while they’ve allowed 332, second in the league to the White Sox.
Next, all of baseball takes a 3-day vacation for an All-Star Game. Rumor has it that it counts. For something. Whatever. Feel free to watch if that’s your thing.
The M’s will then kickoff the second half hosting a four-game set with spiraling Baltimore. After starting the season as one of the more fun stories to watch in baseball, the O’s have dropped 11 of their last 14, including 3 of 4 to their archrival Yankees. Currently, the Orioles have scored 416 runs, 4th in the league, and allowed 400, 9th in the league.
Game 84, Mariners at Angels
The M’s are in Anaheim to take their beatings like men. The ghost of Joel Pineiro takes on the man who ate Bartolo Colon.
The day in tidbits
Rumor roundup:
PI: Guardado to Boston discussions “preliminary”. Boone may head to the Padres, Twins, Nationals, but no sources.
Times: Ichiro may compete in the home run derby (which this year has been made even lamer by forcing it into a nationalistic competition).
The PI has this fine Doyle quote on his return to the majors after three years:
“Same game,” he said. “Ninety feet to first. Keep it simple.”
Snelling was also named to the Pacific Coast League All-Star game, though like injured King Felix, he’s not going to show.
From the Seattle Times, this made me think of Miller’s Crossing:
Instead of meeting with the inconsistent Gil Meche yesterday, manager Mike Hargrove let pitching coach Bryan Price handle the discussion. Both Hargrove and Price laughed when it was noted that Price and Meche went to sit into the stands for the talk and Price came back alone.
Game 83, Mariners at Royals
RHP Sele v Runlevys Hernandez.
The rumor is this’ll be Snelling’s first start, which would probably mean either Ibanez or Winn will sit. It’s also possible that Hargrove will write Snelling into the lineup card, batting #3, and then pinch-hit for him with Olivo.
I’m still a little mad about last night’s quite stupid move.
Pioneer Press floats Boone-for-Lohse trial balloon
If you’ve noticed a wealth of posts about potential trades over the last few days, that’s because it’s more interesting than continually bemoaning the cruel fate of backing a losing team.
Usually, I’m loath to speculate about what the Mariners might get in a deal. The market fluctuates naturally, GMs have different perceptions of player value, and I have no inside information to speak of. Most of what you see bandied about in these stories is more chaff than wheat. Today affords us a perfect example.
Bret Boone: the Twins have no interest … and yet, the Twins also want to get him and start him!
From Finnigan:
Minnesota, which had been hinted as a suitor, said it had no interest. Although Luis Rivas is having an off-year, the Twins reportedly are placing their faith in Nick Punto, whose lead asset is hustle.
From the Pioneer Press:
If three-time all-star Bret Boone isn’t the Twins’ starting second baseman next week, it won’t be for lack of making a run at the suddenly available Gold Glove infielder.
The Twins appear to be in the middle of the pursuit of Boone … “I’m not going to deny anything right now,” said Terry Ryan, the Twins’ typically tight-lipped general manager, when asked about pursuing Boone. “I’ve got to keep everything going.”
Maybe Finnigan’s statement that Minnesota said it had no interest refers to the state, not the ball club.
These two disparate reports should serve as enough of a caveat. Believe rumors at your own risk.
Still, the Pioneer Press story is enough to get an M’s fan’s blood percolating, in a good way. It says that if the Mariners will pick up the tab for the rest about Boone’s season (about $4.5 million), the Twins might be willing to deal a pitcher or an outfield prospect.
Specifically, the article floats the possibility of Kyle Lohse. This is a deal that I would do in a heartbeat.
Lohse is no world-beater — he has career numbers similar to Gil Meche’s, and we’ve seen how frustrating Meche can be — but he’s durable, is going to be 27 in December and would fill a hole in the 2006 Grand Canyon of a rotation the M’s are looking at.
The only current starter virtually guaranteed to be on the club is Joel Pineiro, and he’s at serious risk of getting injured or being bad. I’d bet Franklin will be back, but that means right now we’re looking at Franklin, Pineiro and Felix, with maybe Madritsch if he gets healthy. Lohse’s strikeout rate has dipped a bit, but he’s also walking fewer batters. His 2.44 K/BB this year beats any current Mariners starter.
For the price — a player you’re going to cut loose anyway, and money you’re not going to put back in the club next year — I think this is a move you make if it’s on the table. That’s especially true given a dearth of free agent pitchers to get excited about in the coming offseason.
Trading Value
In one of the threads yesterday, there was a discussion about the pros and cons of trading Raul Ibanez. Considering how strong we came out against the Ibanez signing and how easy it is to find a servicable designated hitter, one would probably expect that we would support shipping Raul out of town. After all, he’s 33 years old, under contract for $4.3 million next year, and he doesn’t walk that often or hit the ball out of the park very much.
Well, despite our protestations against the signing, Ibanez has just hit, hit, and hit some more since signing. He’s currently sporting a .298 EqA, highest on the team, and his VORP puts him 4th in baseball among DHs behind David Ortiz, David Dellucci, and Travis Hafner. If you want to compare him to left fielders, his EqA puts him in the same league as Pat Burrell, Ryan Klesko, Carlos Lee, Kevin Mench, and Cliff Floyd.
We talk a lot about replacement level and how easy it is to find a DH to play for peanuts. But if you trade Raul Ibanez and replace him with a guy like Josh Phelps, you’re losing around 30 runs over the course of a season. The 2006 Mariners cannot afford to lose 30 runs off their offense, and even if they wisely spend the $4 million that trading Ibanez would free up, the odds of them finding another player capable of posting a .300 EqA in Safeco Field for that kind of cash are somewhere between slim and none.
The M’s stink, there’s no question about that. But they can’t waive the white flag on 2006 right now. After two abysmal seasons, they have to be at least decent next year. Trading Raul Ibanez for a mid tier prospect will almost certainly make the 2006 Mariners a worse team, and the kind of player you’d expect to get back for him doesn’t justify making that maneuver.
We were against the Ibanez deal when it went down, but there’s no question that we were dead wrong. He’s been way better than advertised, and right now, he’s an indispensible part of the offense. The organization doesn’t have a good way to replace him internally, and its unlikely they could match his performance at his salary level in the free agent market.
Trade Randy Winn. Trade Eddie Guardado. But hang on to Raul Ibanez. Two years ago, I’d never have imagined saying this, but he’s too big of a bargain and too valuable to let go.
Game 82, Mariners at Royals
5:10. RHP Meche v RHP Carrasco and yet–
No Doyle. No Morse. Bloomquist plays at short and bats 8th. Borders catches.
I don’t get it. Doyle needs his playing time like a lost man in the desert needs water, and they’re keeping him away from the fountain. What’s the deal?
Another BP/USSM at the Park update
I just wanted to give you guys an update on the USS Mariner/Baseball Prospectus
trip to Safeco. We posted this Friday afternoon, but for those of you who may have
taken off early for the weekend and only check the blog from “work”, we didn’t want
you to miss out. Details below.
Come talk baseball, listen to guest speakers and enjoy a day at the
ballpark! Baseball Prospectus author Jonah Keri, BP alums and USS Mariner
authors Derek Zumsteg and Dave Cameron, and a few well-known surprise
guests are hosting a Ballpark Feed at Safeco Field, Saturday July 16 vs.
the Orioles. The event will start at 5 p.m., featuring a sit-down and Q&A
with featured speakers inside the Interview Room at Safeco Field. The game
will follow at 7:05 p.m.Game Tickets in our section cost $17.50 each, and seats will be located in Section
326, Rows 20-24, in the View Reserved (upper deck) section just to the
first-base side of home plate. The ticket price includes a small service charge
for Group Ticket Window, an online system that will enable you to buy and
print your tickets from your home computer.There will be an additional fee to cover the cost of renting the facility and providing
refreshments during the feed. An exact cost will be determined shortly, but we will work
to keep the price as low as possible. Expect it to fall in the $10-15 range.Please RSVP to seattlefeed@yahoo.com if you’d like
to attend. Please indicate the following in your e-mail:1) With a clear number (i.e. 2, 3, 4 etc.), indicate *exactly* how many
people will be going.2) Full names of each attendee (for nametag purposes).
There are only 25 spots or so remaining, so please RSVP ASAP. If you’ve already
e-mailed to express initial interest, we will count that e-mail as an RSVP
(requiring payment for tickets), unless we receive a cancellation notice.
We will provide details on how to obtain your tickets once we’ve reached
our limit of 65. We will also provide instructions on how to get to the
Interview Room and other details a few days before the game.